Pre-Detection NATO Workshop

Transcription

1 Panel: Synergies among Technologies, Collective Intelligence System for Security and Social Aspects Pre-Detection NATO Workshop Jerome C. Glenn, CEO The Millennium Project

2 Old Way of Seeing Future Technologies Artificial Intelligence Artificial General Intelligence Drones Nanotechnology 3 D4 D Priting Computational Science Robotic manufacturing Tele Everything & Tele Everybody the Semantic Web Quantum computing Synthetic Biology

3 Future Way of Seeing Future Technologies - Integration/Synergies

4 Future Technology Synergies Quantum computing Robotic manufacturing Synthetic Biology Increasing individual and collective intelligence Drones Robotic manufacturing 3D,4D Printing Augmented Reality Tele Presence, Holographics Nanotechnology Nanotechnology Artificial General Intelligence Tele Everything Tele Everybody the Semantic Web

5 Future Technology Synergies Robotic manufacturing Quantum computing Drones Robotic manufacturing 3D,4D Printing Artificial Intelligence Augmented Reality, Tele Presence, Holographics Future Technology

6 Emerging Technological Synergies Matrix If\then Synthetic Biology Internet of Things 3D Printing Nanotechnology Conscious Technology Artificial Intelligence Nanotechnology Synthetic Biology Internet of Things 3D Printing Conscious Technology Artificial Intelligence

7 Some Future Threats from Technologies Internet of Things, system collapse, everything venerable Increasing intelligence mini Hitlers, brain gap prejudice 3-D Printing proliferation of weapons out of control Synthetic Biology lab leaks, pandemics, SIMAD Nanotechnology individual mass armies, gray goo AI & Robotics mass unemployment, social revolutions Augmented Reality inability to distinguish reality, insanity

8 Thinking the Unthinkable Interactions of what can go wrong If\then IoT collapse Information war paranoia IoT collapse Information war paranoia IQ, Brain gap, mini Hitlers SIMAD Proliferation of Nano Armies Mass Unemployment IQ, Brain gap mini Hitlers SIMAD Proliferation of Nano Armies Mass Unemployment

9 Acceleration of Synergies among future technologies Moore s Law + Artificial Intelligence acceleration + Computational science These three together will change what we think is possible.

10 Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991 By millions of people could become augmented geniuses, and what could they create?

11 Reduce the likelihood of SIMADs Potential Global Assessment by The Millennium Project

12 What sector of the public? General Public Sympathetic to Ideological Support Public Prevention Detection Rolls Ideological Support

13 How to keep track and anticipate the synergies among technologies and.their potential security and social impacts? One approach: Collective Intelligence Systems

14 General concept of Collective Intelligence

15 Collective Intelligence Definition emerges from the integration and synergies among data/info/knowledge software/hardware experts and others with insight that continually learns from feedback to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions than these elements acting alone.

16 General Steps to create a Collective Intelligence System What the key challenges? Who are the best reviewers for each? For each Challenge, what are the best news sources, computer models, etc. that can feed new scanning items Create Situation Chart for each: What is, What ought, and ways to address the gap

17 Menu for each Challenge 1. Situation Chart: Current Situation; Desired Situation; and Policies 2. Report (detailed text) 3. News items (automatic news feeds searchable) 4. Scanning (annotated, rated information) 5. On going Real Time Delphi questionnaires to collect expert judgments 6. Public comments 7. Discussion groups 8. Computer models (mathematical and rules based), and conceptual models 9. Resources: websites, books, papers, videos 10. Updates all edits 11. Digests Recent scans, edits, discussions

18 One example of work flow: Short term Memory Long term Memory Intelligence Feedback on Overviews, Situation Charts, Scanning items, and News Sources to constantly change. If there is time and interest go to if no firewall problems

19 For further information Jerome C. Glenn phone/fax Global Futures Intelligence System: State of the Future: Futures Research Methodology 3.0: