The New Manhattan Project Science for peace the World Over Citadel: a Concept for a credible Planetary Defence System
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1 The 49th Session of the International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies Erice August 2016 The New Manhattan Project Science for peace the World Over Citadel: a Concept for a credible Planetary Defence System A. V. Zaitsev A. A. Klapovsky Planetary DefenceCentre NPP «Planetary DefenceCentre», zav-y@yandex.ru
2 Asteroid 2015 TB145 (Halloween) 10 Okt days 31 Okt Halloween Asteroid D = 600 m V= 35 km/ s L= km Moon Photo: NAIC-Arecibo/NSF A. V. Zaitsev
3 Consequences of possible impact of an asteroid of type Halloween Impact's Energy Megatons TNT (This exceeds thrice all nuclear potential of humanity in 20-th century) Magnitude of Earthquake >8 (the Richter scale) Crater
4 The size of a primary zone of destructions Diameter of the destructions zone 800 km The area km 2 Moscow region Europe -nodamage -weakdamage -moderate damage -severe damage -destruction - сollapse
5 Quantity of evacuated people
6 Secondary consequences of the asteroid s impact Emissions from a crater, fires, a dust and gases, a tsunami, industrial disasters
7 The threat from space can appear at any moment
8 Comparison of the Planetary Threats Natural threats Consequences for mankind Partial destruction Degradation Full destruction Opportunity of the forecast Opportunity of defence Asteroids and comets Geological (Earthquakes, volcanos, a tsunami ) Climatic (Warming, cooling, ) Biological (Epidemics, ) Technogenic threats Militarians Ecological
9 Since the threat from space can appear at any moment, it would be a inexcusable carelessness not to make use of its prevention possibilities that we possess.
10 What Do We Need to Do? It is necessary to solve a broad range of problems. The simplest of them are scientific, technical and financial problems. The most difficult organizational and international legal problems.
11
12 The Concept of the International Planetary Defence System Citadel
13
14 The Scheme of Activity of the Planetary Defence System Citadel
15 Composition of the PDS «Citadel-1» The West The East
16
17 Protection from huge comet nuclei will demand much more time, greater expenses and development of new technologies. In particular, it will require means of impact more powerful, than nuclear. Probably, they will include technologies based on the use of the antimatter.
18 The most difficult organizational and international legal problems.
19 About the approach to formation of international-legal bases of ensuring planetary defence Creation of the International Planetary Defense System (PDS) from asteroid-comet danger will demand progressive development of international legal outer space instruments. It can be presented in the format of the International Treaty About measures of ensuring the defence of the Earth from asteroidcomet danger, which will serve as a foundation for creating of the PDS, and financial coverage of the activities. It is necessary to introduce amendments or reservation into a number of provisions of the existing international outer space law. We may outline general principles that we would need to proceed from when preparing the draft Treaty.
20 General principles of preparing the draft of the Treaty Stage of Concept 1. The formation of the Treaty should be based on a concept of the PDS preliminary agreement by the international community. The PDS Citadel Conception can be used as an option. 2. The legal basis must have binding juridical character for states taking part in the PDS creation. 3. The Treaty should include main principles for establishing and using of an international fund - Mankind Insurance Fund - for financing, developing, maintaining, and modernizing of the PDS. 4. The Treaty should include regulations for operation of Planetary Defence Centres. 5. The legal basis can be structured with reference to areas of tasks (scientific, technological, organisational, financial etc.) or stages of the PDS formation. 6.
21 Principles of preparing a draft of the International Treaty About measures of ensuring the defence of the Earth from asteroid-comet danger
22 Stages of Formation of the International Treaty About measures of ensuring the defence of the Earth from asteroid-comet danger Working group Principles of preparing the draft of the Treaty The draft of the Treaty The Treaty The States China India The European Union The Russian Federation The USA Japan etc. The International Conference International Treaty About measures of ensuring the defence of the Earth from asteroid-comet danger"
23 Stages of Creation of the International Planetary Defence System Законодательная Legislative base Financial Финансовая Base база Международный база International Planetary Центр Defence Centre планетарной защиты Региональный Regional Центр Centre «Восток» East Региональный Regional Центр Centre «Запад» West Developers Level Эшелон for Level Эшелон for short-term оперативного reaction short-term оперативного reaction реагирования East «Восток» реагирования West «Запад» Эшелон Level долгосрочного for long-term реагирования reaction (виртуальный) (virtual)
24 The solution to the problem lies neither in the scientific or technical fields, nor in the financial or political sphere. It belongs to moral and ethical issues. The problem will not be solved until leaders of the countries come to understanding of their responsibility for the future of the Earth and its inhabitants.
25 Decrees and Resolutions United Nations Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe House of Lords in Great Britain United States Congress The World Federation of Scientists (Erice Statement-2) Working Group "Risk and Safety" under the President of the RAS Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of Russia and other organizations
26 Erice Statement-2 To the G20 Leaders
27 Proposals In order to implement the Project of the International Planetary Defense System, we suggest the following: 1. To create an international working group for elaboration of the International Treaty About Measures of Ensuring the Defence of the Earth from Asteroid-Comet Danger. 2. To forward the «Erice Statement-2» to leaders of the states and special a Statement to religious and spiritual leaders of the planet asking them to convince leaders of the states to make a decision on creation of the International Planetary Defense System. 3. To organize the international Conference for acceptance of the Treaty. 4. To start creation of the International Planetary Defense System.
28 Thank you for attention
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