THE POLITICS OF A MARS COLONY

Transcription

1 MAR THE POLITICS OF A MARS COLONY Kevin Archbold, Randall Hessler and Blaine Thompson Monroe, Michigan. The colonization of Mars will be the result of thousands, possibly millions, of personnel establishing a new life for themselves on Mars. However, many large-scale earth-bound colonization efforts in the past have resulted in border disputes, or all-out war. This paper presents the authors thoughts on some suggested actions that could be taken to prevent major social disruptions and possible abandonment of a Martian colony. One of the major actions required will be to supply the new colony with a specific set of goals. (One such goal would to observe and track asteroids and comets that might harm the Earth or Mars.) When establishing these goals, we should assume that no single Earth-bound country, company, or individual will eventually control the new colony. In fact, the authors suggest that the colony be developed with the specific intent of becoming a separate entity from the Earth after a 100-year time period. (The 100 year countdown would begin after a 10 year period of continuos habitation.) INTRODUCTION We present this paper as moderately informed, but supportive amateurs, recognizing that much of the material discussed here may have been presented previously. However, we hope that providing a fresh perspective will generate additional original discussion. In fact, if this paper inspires just one original thought that results in time or money saved in pursuit of the establishment of a permanent Martian colony, then we will consider this paper a success. Successful establishment of a permanent Martian colony will require overcoming risks much higher than for previous colonization attempts on Earth. Early Martian colonists will be confronted with a very hostile environment, and will be far removed from the highly organized infrastructure of modern Earth. This paper will address issues that may result in a major disruption or total abandonment of the colony as it expands from a scientific outpost to a permanent establishment, and we will recommend possible actions that may reduce or avoid some of these issues. We have assumed the permanent Martian colony will be a self-sustaining entity, using naturally occurring resources from the Martian environment to maintain life with minor resource input from Earth. This will require a large amount of resources, and technical expertise. However, this paper does not address the technical aspects of how to construct, or finance Mars missions. It will demonstrate that in the zeal to get to Mars and establish a permanent colony, there are many issues that should not be forgotten or understated. Initially, the single goal of existence will be shared by all colonists. However, maintaining a single goal will becomes more difficult as the colony grows in size. We believe that one of the most important actions to stabilize the existence of the colony will be to determine from the outset, the goal that the colony will become a sovereign nation at a specific point in time. We

2 will state recommendations for when and how the new nation should be declared. We will also discuss why we believe that current Earth policies and practices do not directly support the concept of a sovereign nation on Mars. 881 REVIEW OF PAST COLONIZATION ATTEMPTS Evidence [1] suggests that early settlers (Vikings) on the East Coast of North America attempted to establish colonies. The colonies may have failed to sustain themselves for a variety of reasons. Possibilities include failure due to a harsh environment, failed crops, conflicts with native people, no desire to stay, lack of sufficient technology, and just plain bad luck. The thriving Easter Island society declined from an estimated peak population of about 9000 [2] circa 1550 to approximately 2000 people in There are theories [3] that the failure of this society was related to the overuse of available resources. Specifically, it appears that overuse of the palm forests may have contributed to soil erosion, which resulted in the inability of the island to sustain large numbers of inhabitants. The colonies Britain established in North America are now a failure from the British point of view, since Britain has essentially lost control over the entire North American continent. The American Revolution, in which Britain lost much of this control, was a major disruption to both the British and the colonists. Many lives were lost, and valuable resources on both sides were consumed by the war. Even after many centuries of history and supporting political infrastructure, Britain failed to recognize the effect of taxing the colonies as if the colonial environment were as highly organized and productive as the environment in England. SUGGESTED ACTIONS These three brief examples demonstrate the difficulty of maintaining control of both commercial and governmental aspects of a colony when the supporting infrastructure is distant, arrogant, and/or ignorant. Over time, in each of these three cases, this lack of control resulted in either major social disruption, and/or the abandonment of the colony involved. Two of the examples above involved conflicts. The negative effects of conflicts in the Martian environment cannot be overstated, since the Martian environment will be much more hostile. A wounded individual on Mars will be hard pressed to maintain existence. Even small punctures in life-sustaining environmental enclosures will end up deadly in the long run if not detected and corrected. To avoid making similar mistakes in the establishment of a Martian colony, a number of proactive actions are required. The following list highlights some of the more significant actions that we would suggest:

3 Research and understand colonists concerns and priorities, bearing in mind that these may change over time. This action is important and requires proper knowledge, communications, and attitude. Gather reliable and accurate information about the environment and local resources, to allow for adequate resource planning. Evaluate supplied resources to ensure they are sufficient for the long-term support of the colony, and carefully monitor these resources for signs of long-term negative impacts. Establish continuous high-bandwidth communication between Earth and Mars to avoid the confusion and disagreements that result from communication delays. 882 Carefully plan and evaluate emergency supplies and procedures. Minor unexpected events should not result in an immediate abandonment of the colony because of a lack of understanding or confidence in the emergency preparedness. Perform psychological screening of the initial colonists. This should not to be construed as an attempt to create a perfect society. The screening is suggested due to the elevated stress levels associated with the lengthy travel time and the stay on Mars. A single individual having a breakdown either in transit, or at the colony, could be extremely disruptive. (Once the colony is established, and the associated risks reduced, screening may become unnecessary.) Design a well-balanced team of early colonists. The local support necessary to create a permanent Martian colony requires that the colony cannot consist of just scientists. A scientific background may be a good start, but someone will have to efficiently perform the more routine operations of the colony. Involve the colonist team in all aspects of colony creation prior to launch from Earth. Personal

4 involvement with the project from the early stages will increase acceptance and provide a stabilizing effect on the colony. Work with the UN to evaluate existing legislation for its appropriateness in a Martian environment. (This is discussed in more detail in a later section.) Establish a UN subcommittee as part of the Martian colony. This organization could provide the kind of feedback from the colony that was missing when Britain imposed taxes on its colonists. (This action is not expected to occur immediately - the colony would have to grow to a sufficient size to support this action.) Develop the ability to accurately monitor, register, and review ownership of Martian land. This is necessary to avoid organizations laying claim to vast, poorly defined, areas of Mars without the demonstrated resources to utilize, control, or maintain the claims. of any portion of Mars should not occur until a permanent base colony has been established, the land has been properly surveyed, and the proper policies have been put in place. Two other policies should be determined prior to the establishment of the colony. The first is a return policy for those individuals who decide that life on Mars is not what they had expected. The second is a death policy. This policy should determine what to do with the bodies of individuals who die during the mission. Preserving bodies in space is not expected to present a problem, however there is an issue regarding whether bodies should be left on Mars or returned to Earth. This is a sensitive issue, since unforeseen religious expectations could become a destabilizing effect on the colony. Another extremely important action is the allotment of private leisure time. While initial conditions are expected to be somewhat Spartan, there must be sufficient time allotted for activities such as private communications, entertainment, relaxation, sports, hobbies, etc. This should be planned into any mission from the very beginning. Colonists must not be burnt-out upon arrival, nor must they be expected to maintain 16 hour or more workdays, seven days a week. The decision-making processes for the colony must be clearly outlined for all situations. These processes may change as the colony grows, but at all times decisions will have to be made in an effective and timely manner.

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6 Figure 1 Martian Separate Nation Development Time Line. 884 A process must be defined that will allow the exchange of knowledge and ideas between Mars and Earth, and visa-versa, while the colony grows. A social/political timeline should be established to lay out these actions, along with the items discussed later in the paper. (We have included an example timeline at the end of the paper - see Figure 1.) Finally, the initial common goal of existence will need to be replaced with specific goals supporting the long-term existence and enhancement of the colony. These goals will provide a mechanism to measure the success of the colony, and a rallying point for the colonists. GOALS We recommend the following goals be adopted as part of the goal setting action described above, once the feasibility of extended human habitation has been proved: The search for life on Mars, as well as evidence of ancient Martian life. This goal will go hand

7 in hand with proving the feasibility of living on Mars, since if life currently exists on Mars, it may not be compatible with human life. (This issue is expected to be thoroughly researched as part of the initial ten-year scientific study of Mars. Additional research would be expected as the colony grows, but to a lesser extent.) Another major goal will be to establish the Martian colony as an outpost for the observation and tracking of asteroids. Mars, and Mars orbits, provide an excellent base to observe and track asteroids, both large and small, since Mars is much closer to the asteroid belt than Earth. Further goals will be to investigate the feasibility of manufacturing in a low gravity environment, the commercial utilization of Mars, the creation of a historical record of the unaltered Martian environment, and general astronomical research. One final very important goal will be that the colony should become a separate nation after specific criteria have been met. DEVELOPING A SEPARATE NATION A separate nation would be a completely autonomous organization, independent from the authority of any earth-bound entity. Independent does not necessarily mean completely selfcontained, but does mean politically standalone. There are many advantages to such an approach. The three main ones are as follows: Ownership. Ownership brings with it a sense of pride in people who truly care about the longterm aspirations of the colony. The sense of community that results from this pride and ownership will help to bind the colonists to the common goals required to maintain existence. A permanent Martian colony will be the result of thousands (or millions) of support personnel from numerous companies and countries around the world. Creating a separate nation will help to break down barriers that may arise due to Earth-related allegiances. Motivation. A separate nation will provide extra motivation for the colonists. The idea that their effort is being expended to support the Martian nation itself will help maintain the motivation needed to continue the colony. If a separate nation is not created, the colonists will always feel vulnerable to a sponsoring Earth-bound organization withdrawing support for the colony.

8 885 Flexibility. A separate nation on Mars will have more flexibility to respond rapidly to changing conditions and newly available information. The Martian colony cannot be limited by Earthbound values and/or politics, nor by Earth-related communications delays. An example in this area would be punishment for crimes. Laws on Earth may consider a particular act to be a crime minor not worthy of major punishment. However the same act on Mars might place the entire colony at risk. The colonists must therefore be empowered with the flexibility to make and enforce their own nation s laws. Of course, to be able to successfully establish a separate nation, many issues need to be overcome. One of the more significant issues is the existence of a number of UN treaties and resolutions, that appear to restrict important nation-building activities. The first restricted activity is ownership. Most UN resolutions were developed based on the Moon, and were later extended to other celestial bodies. These resolutions, for the most part, adopt a you can see, touch, and smell, but not own attitude. This approach started with adoption of the 1963 UN Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space [4], and], continued through the 1966 Outer Space Treaty" [Ref], Moon Agreement [5]. Clearly, if ownership is restricted in this manner, a separate nation is out of the question. The second activity that appears to be restricted is the use of nuclear power, and nuclear fuels. UN Principles [6] state that nuclear reactors may be operated on interplanetary missions, in sufficiently high orbits, (as defined in paragraph 2 (b) [6]), and in low-earth orbits, if they are stored in sufficiently high orbits after the operational part of their mission is complete. As discussed by Dr R Zubrin [7], the energy per person required on Mars is expected to be much higher than on Earth, due to the lack of rainfall, plant life, and the lower temperatures. Nuclear power will therefore be a vital stepping stone on way a successful colony, and will become even more vital if a truly independent nation is to be allowed to flourish. Obviously the solution in these two instances will be to work to change the UN resolutions. This would allow for the recognition of sovereignty that a nation would have over the Martian colony, and allow the increased use of nuclear reactors as an energy source. However, this will require a significant amount of political will in many countries around the world. A second concern regarding creating a separate nation is how the nation s initial development costs would be financed. To solve this problem, we should examine a number of parallels on Earth today.

9 Foreign-owned companies often invest in a nation s production facilities (e.g. Mexico) with the anticipation that they will make a profit. Foreign governments sometimes provide direct financial assistance to help in the establishment of a new regime. (e.g. Cuba). International organizations such as the World Bank loan money to nations for a variety of reasons. (e.g. Russia and Indonesia). Finally, wealthy private citizens may have sufficient financial resources to provide assistance (e.g. Israel). Has anyone asked Bill Gates? 886 One last concern introduced by the concept of a separate nation is that of immigration and emigration. All nations struggle with their immigration policies as they seek to strike a balance between diversity, fairness, and stability. However, in the case of Mars, you have the additional problems of the high costs of travel, and the possible medical complexities of moving between two different living environments. Therefore, the colonists will need to work with the UN and other bodies to develop a set of policies that deals with these complex issues, using successful Earth policies as a base. CONCLUSION Establishing new colonies in the past has been a costly and risky venture, and a permanent Martian colony will be no different. However, there are many lessons that can be learned from our experience on Earth. To avoid potentially harmfully disruptions to the colony, there are many actions to be considered in addition to the technical planning. This includes the setting of clear, achievable, goals for the colonists. One of the major long-term goals should be the establishment of a separate Martian nation. Working towards such a goal will be difficult, and will probably require the modification of much existing space-oriented legislation, but the very act of progress towards this goal will increase the colonists sense of ownership and motivation. When the goal is achieved, we will have created not only a successful and bright future for live on Mars, but an example that will provide insight into our daily lives here on Earth.

10 REFERENCES 1. Krg Pendlesonn, The Vikings, Windward Books, Grant McCall, Pacific Islands Year Book - 17th Edition, Fiji Times Ltd., Jo Anne Van Tilburg, Easter Island, Smithsonian Institution Press, United Nations, 1963 UN Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Resolution 1962 XVIII. 5. United Nations, 1979 UN Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, Resolution 34/ United Nations, 1992 Principles Relevant to the Use of Nuclear Power Sources in Outer Space, Resolution 47/ Robert Zubrin, The Case for Mars, Simon & Shuster Inc.,