Planetary Defense Conferences: Sharing Information on NEO Threats and Mitigation
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1 Planetary Defense Conferences: Sharing Information on NEO Threats and Mitigation William Ailor, Ph.D. The Aerospace Corporation Co-Chair, 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference Presented at meeting of the Working Group on Near Earth Objects of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space February
2 Overview of Threat to Earth from Asteroids and Comets >300 asteroids known as of today with non-zero but small probability of impacting Earth in next 100 years 2>1 km diameter 131>30 m diameter Many more yet to be discovered Recognition that small objects represent greatest risk of impact ~1 in 5 chance of Tunguska-class (30-meter asteroid) entry this century 1 in 3000 chance of 130-meter asteroid impact in 2048 (may be reduced by additional tracking); impact energy 150 MT 2
3 Tunguska Photo: Leonid Kulik Expedition, 1927 June 30, 1908: Tunguska, Siberia Airburst of ~30 m diameter object at ~6 km altitude 2-15 MT explosion Two deaths Leveled and ignited over 2000 km 2 of forest Most powerful natural explosion in recent history Image courtesy Clark Chapman 3
4 Outside Earth s Orbit History of Known NEO Population Earth Crossing NEO: Perihelia <1.3 AU PHO: pass within 0.05 AU of Earth s orbit The Inner Solar System in 2006 Known 350,000 minor planets 4500 NEOs ~830 PHOs New Survey Will Likely Find 100,000+ NEOs (> 140m) 20,000+ PHOs Scott Manley Armagh Observatory 4
5 Background Three international conferences since 2004 Became an International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) conference in IAA Planetary Defense Conference, May 9-12, Bucharest, Romania Goal: Since mitigation attempt would be international effort, involve all space-faring nations in the discussion 5
6 2004 Planetary Defense Conference: Defending Earth from Asteroids Anaheim, California Sponsored by The Aerospace Corporation, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) 140 attendees Published White Paper summarizing key points Videos of presentations, conference materials at defense.info White Paper evolved to AIAA Position Paper (Protecting Earth from Asteroids and Comets, 2004) 6
7 2007 Planetary Defense Conference Washington, D.C. 13 sponsoring organizations 145 attendees Published videos of presentations, conference materials at defense.info Published White Paper summarizing key points 7
8 2009 IAA Planetary Defense Granada, Spain Conference 19 Sponsoring Organizations 170 attendees Conference materials published at Videos of presentation to be published 8
9 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference 9-12 May, 2011, Bucharest, Romania 16 sponsoring organizations (additional sponsorship opportunities available) Conference web page: 9
10 World s experts discuss Conference Format Current state of knowledge on Near Earth Objects (how many, physical characteristics, current limitations, etc.) Consequences of an impact (tsunami, NEO size vs. consequence, economic impact, past events) Techniques for deflecting or mitigating a threatening NEO (kinetic impact, gravity tractor, explosive devices) Design of a NEO deflection mission and campaign (launch requirements, cost, timelines) Political, policy, legal considerations affecting a decision to act Current activities supporting planetary defense Encourage student attendance and participation Concluding panel session summarizes key points, develops recommendations for moving forward Session and conference chairs develop White Paper capturing key points, recommendations 10
11 Sponsors of 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference MAJOR SPONSORS International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) European Space Agency (ESA) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Romanian Space Agency (ROSA) Secure World Foundation The Aerospace Corporation OTHER SPONSORS American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) Association of Space Explorers B612 Foundation GMV Aerospace Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) The Planetary Society Space Generation Advisory Council Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) Telespazio 11
12 Organizing Comittee V. Adimurthy Indian Space Research Organization/Department of Space William Ailor* The Aerospace Corporation Ivan Bekey Bruce Betts The Planetary Society Mark Boslough Sandia National Laboratory Juan-Luis Cano Deimos Space Sergio Camacho Ian Carnelli European Space Agency A.C. Charania SpaceWorks Commercial Pingyuan Cui Institute of Deep Space Exploration, Beijing Institute of Technology Jean-Michel Contant International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) Richard Crowther Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Alan Fitzsimmons Queen s University, Belfast Andres Galvez European Space Agency Mariella Graziano GMV Pedro J. Gutiérrez Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía -CSIC Alan Harris German Space Agency (DLR) Alan W. Harris Space Science Institute Dario Izzo European Space Agency Lindley Johnson NASA NEO Observation Program Executive Tom Jones Astronaut, Member B612 Foundation Alex Karl Space Generation Advisory Council Detlef Koschny SSA Near-Earth Object Segment Manager, European Space Agency Claudio Maccone International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) Nahum Melamed The Aerospace Corporation Patrick Michel Côte d'azur Observatory David Morrison NASA Lunar Science Institute Marius Piso Romanian Space Agency Dorin Prunariu Romanian Space Agency Rusty Schweickart Chairman, ASE-NEO Committee Richard Tremayne-Smith* Giovanni Valsecchi IASF-Roma, INAF Frans von der Dunk University of Nebraska-Lincoln Brian Weeden Secure World Foundation Bong Wie Iowa State University Ray Williamson Secure World Foundation Don Yeomans Manager, NASA Near-Earth Object Program Office *Conference Co-Chair 12
13 Summary Planetary defense is an international issue Mitigating a threat may require decisions and agreements by the world community, coordinated actions by space-faring nations The 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference will provide the most current information on NEO hazards, options for mitigation, and related issues Invitation: Become a sponsor of the conference; Join us for an excellent meeting! 13
Summary of the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference
Summary of the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference William Ailor, Ph.D. The Aerospace Corporation Co-Chair, 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference William.h.ailor@aero.org Presented at the 54 th Session
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