Analysis of the Earth-to-Orbit Launch Market for Nano and Microsatellites

Transcription

1 Analysis of the Earth-to-Orbit Launch Market for Nano and Microsatellites SpaceWorks Commercial: Template AIAA Space 2010 Conference and Exposition 30 August 2 September, 2010 Anaheim, CA Mr. Dominic DePasquale, Mr. A.C. Charania SpaceWorks Commercial dominic.depasquale@sei.aero Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Mr. Seiji Matsuda IHI AEROSPACE CO., LTD. matsuda-s@iac.ihi.co.jp, Tomioka-shi, Gunma, Japan Mr. Hideki Kanayama CSP Japan, Inc. kanayama@csp.co.jp Tokyo, Japan 1

2 Small Satellite History 1950s Sputnik s Ariel kg 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Osumi 1970 Strela-1M LuSAT 1990 FalconSAT kg Explorer Intelsat kg Grid Sphere kg 13.8 kg ORBCOMM Cute kg 14 kg Pioneer kg ERS Taifun (Romb subsats) GLOMR kg Microsats kg Aprize kg 6.1 kg 9.1 kg 68 kg 22 kg Image Credits: NASA, NASA, NASA, Smithsonian, Boeing, USAF, ISAS/JAXA, USAF, unknown, Strela, CTA, AMSAT, OSC, CTA, USAF, TiTech LSS, SpaceQuest 2

3 Nanosatellite Revolution Sputnik shock => Gagarin shock => Man on the moon => CubeSat shock? Globalizing and Internationalizing ORS Standards and Technology (GIST) PnP spacecraft architectures accelerate modularization and standardization Advances in nanosatellite technologies, developers, and missions PIONEER Experimental & University, Gov t PRESENT Experimental & University, Schools, Gov t, Private FUTURE Experiment/Mission Applications & Anyone SNAP-1 CP-1 AerospaceCorp Picosat GENESAT CANX-2 XI-IV CUTE-1 CSTB-1 Delfi-C3 More hi-isp & thrust More power & storage More hi-speed data rate More Operational Image sources:aerospace Corp, U-Tokyo, Titech, Calpoly,SSTL, Boeing, NASA,UTIAS, tudelft, U3P,US-Army,Boeing, DARPA, AFRL, INSA, Northrop Grumman We are expriencing a wave of innovation in nano-space Smaller Bus system(mems) More sensitive attitude control Standardization(PnP,GIST,,) Commercialization 3

4 Global Small Satellite Launch Database A comprehensive compilation of satellites less than 500 kilograms in mass that have been launched since 2000 Over 270 attempted and successful small satellites launches, as well as over 85 current and planned nanosatellite programs ( ) The database includes fields such as: Mass Country of satellite production Contractor / developer User Type (civil, government, commercial, military) Orbital location (apogee, perigee, eccentricity, and inclination) Launch year, launch date, launch location Launch vehicle This paper/presentation focuses on satellites in the less than 50 kg class 4

5 The Small Satellite Market: Number of Attempted Small Satellite Deliveries: for kg Satellite Class Yearly Launch History: for 1-50 Kg Satellite Class Near-term history indicates growth in number of small satellites launched Notes: Data values refer to attempted launches, and may include failures The number of satellites launched may not equal the number of launches since many satellites are multiple-manifested (i.e. more than one satellite on a particular launch). Many times in this presentation, the term launch or launches may refer to the number of satellites launched (even though they may be multiple-manifested). 5

6 Nanosatellite Launches: Distribution of Orbital Satellite Mass: for 0-10 kg Satellite Class 1U (1 kg) CubeSat popularity is evident Notes: Data values refer to attempted launches, and may include failures The number of satellites launched may not equal the number of launches since many satellites are multiple-manifested (i.e. more than one satellite on a particular launch). Many times in this presentation, the term launch or launches may refer to the number of satellites launched (even though they may be multiple-manifested). 6

7 Suborbital Launch Attempts: Brazil, 0.8% China, 3.9% Australia, 1.2% India, 1.2% Indonesia, 1.3% Iran, 2.8% Israel, 1.3% Japan, 0.9% New Zealand, 0.1% USA 50.4% Norway, 19.6% Pakistan, 2.9% Romania, 0.4% Sweden, 3.2% Russia, 10.0% South Korea, 0.1% Number of Attempted Global Suborbital Launches: Countries Where Launched: for Suborbital Payloads (Includes Military Payloads) The number of suborbital launches has remained relatively constant in recent years Notes: Data values refer to attempted launches, and may include failures 7

8 Orbital Destinations Orbit Apogee: for 1-50 kg Satellite Class Orbit Inclination: for 1-50 kg Satellite Class Nano and microsatellites (<50kg) predominantly launch to polar / sun-synchronous orbit, but recently have also launched to lower altitudes and inclinations Notes: Does not include 8 satellites with apogee between km Data values refer to attempted launches, and may include failures The number of satellites launched may not equal the number of launches since many satellites are multiple-manifested (i.e. more than one satellite on a particular launch). Many times in this presentation, the term launch or launches may refer to the number of satellites launched (even though they may be multiple-manifested). 8

9 Launch Vehicles Atlas V, 2% Pegasus, 2% Other, 14% Cosmos-3M, 3% Rokot-KM, 3% H-2A, 5% Dnepr-1, 36% Minotaur I, 15% Ariane 4, 2% Atlas V, 2% Other, 6% Falcon 1, 2% M-V, 2% H-2A, 4% Cosmos-3M, 5% Dnepr-1, 35% Rokot-KM, 3% Minotaur I, 14% PSLV, 11% STS, 9% PSLV, 16% STS, 9% Launch Vehicles: for 1-50 kg Satellite Class (As a Percentage of Global Satellites Launched) Launch Vehicles: for 1-10 kg Satellite Class (As a Percentage of Global Satellites Launched) Low cost piggy-back opportunities on international launch vehicles attract small satellite payloads 9

10 Launch Sites Kodiak LC, 1.6% Kagoshima SC, 1.6% Reagan Test Site, 1.6% Xichang SLC, 0.8% Guiana Space Center, 2.3% Cape Canaveral, 3.9% Wallops Island FF, 3.9% Baikonur Cosmodrome, 41.4% Tanegashima SC, 5.5% Vandenberg AFB, 5.5% Plesetsk Cosmodrome, 9.4% Satish Dhawan Space Center, 12.5% Kennedy Space Center, 10.2% Countries Where Launched: for 1-50 kg Satellite Class (As a Percentage of Global Satellites Launched Launch Complexes Utilized: for 1-50 kg Satellite Class (As a Percentage of Global Satellites Launched) Russian leadership as a small satellite launch provider is clear 10

11 Sponsors / User Types User Types: for 1-50 kg Satellite Classes User Types: for 1-10 kg Satellite Classes Academic and research institutions are the clear majority of small satellite developers/users 11

12 Indicators of Future Growth CubeSat Initiatives: QB50 international network (50 CubeSats) NRO Colony and Colony 2 CubeSat initiative ( CubeSats) NSF CubeSat-based Science Missions for Space Weather and Atmospheric Research (2 CubeSats per year) NASA CubeSat Launch Initiative NASA Office of the Chief Technologist Franklin Small Satellite Subsystem Technology Program Edison Small Satellite Demonstration Missions Program Centennial Challenges Nanosatellite Launch Challenge Anecdotal Evidence: Over 700 registrants at SmallSat 2010 Over 100 attendees at CubeSat Developers workshop An estimated currently active CubeSat projects 12

13 Summary Recent years ( ) have seen growth in number of nano and microsatellites launched Market conditions present an opportunity for an affordable, dedicated nano to microsatellite launch vehicle that: Accomodates the CubeSat standard and is flexible to other integration interfaces Provides access to orbits selected by the end-user Offers convenient and responsive launch opportunities for U.S. and international customers Sustains the nano-space wave of innovation 13

14 Dominic DePasquale, A.C. Charania SpaceWorks Commercial, a division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) 1701 K St. NW, Suite 750, Washington, D.C U.S.A.; dominic.depasquale@sei.aero Seiji Matsuda, Nobuhiro Sekino, Kazuhiro Yagi, Yasunobu Segawa IHI AEROSPACE CO., LTD. 900 Fujiki Tomioka-shi Gunma Japan; matsuda-s@iac.ihi.co.jp Takayoshi Fuji Institute for Unmanned Space Experiment Free Flyer (USEF) Kanda-ogawamachi Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Japan; fuji@usef.or.jp Hideki Kanayama CSP Japan Inc Uchisaiwai-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Japan; kanayama@csp.co.jp 14