Dr. Marijn Dekkers June Roadshow New York & Boston

Transcription

1 Dr. Marijn Dekkers June 2010 Roadshow New York & Boston

2 Bayer Key Characteristics A leader in its markets Business portfolio aligned to growth markets Well-proven and clear strategy Track-record of performance and target attainment Promising innovation pipeline Clear dividend policy Outlook projects further growth and higher earnings through 2012 Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 1 Bayer A Leader in Its Markets 25% 16.0bn HealthCare Pharmaceuticals 10.5bn global #6 in specialties with leading positions in key categories Consumer Health 5.5bn OTC pharmaceuticals, blood glucose meters and veterinary medicines, global #2-4 53% 22% 6.5bn CropScience Agrochemicals and seeds & traits, global #2 in agrochemicals 7.5bn MaterialScience Polyurethanes and polycarbonates, global #1 Sales 2009: 31.2bn Break-down excluding reconciliation Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 2

3 Fiscal 2009: Successful in a Difficult Environment Underlying EBIT in million 2009 Highlights Underlying EBITDA-margin in % Group sales of 31.2bn (-5.3%) 4,287 4, ,772 EBITDA before special items of 6.5bn (-6.6%); 3rd highest ever 3, , Net income of 1.4bn (-20.9%) Net cash flow significantly improved to 5.4bn (+49.0%) 2,244 Net financial debt reduced by 4.5bn to 9.7bn , Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page Unchanged DPS of 1.40 Group targets largely achieved * % vs As reported in respective year 2002 as reported in as reported in excluding H.C. Starck and Wolff Walsrode margin in 2002 as reported First Quarter 2010 Strong Gains in Sales And Earnings Key Figures Underlying EBITDA by Subgroup In million, % y-o-y Sales 8,316 EBITDA* 1,918 EBIT* 1,274 Core EPS 1.20 MaterialScience 15% % +5% +13% ² +25% +32% CropScience 29% 56% % Adj. ** +6% Reconciliation <1% HealthCare * Before special items ** Currency & portfolio adjusted Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 4

4 2010 Financial Outlook Raised on Improving Outlook for MaterialScience And Fx Sales Fx and portfolio adjusted Previous 2010E Updated* 2010E 2012E Sales >5% unchanged ~5% p.a. uebitda increase towards 7bn > 7bn ~8bn Core EPS ~10% >15% average ~10% p.a. to ~ 5 Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 5 *with Q Outlook depends on planning assumptions as detailed in the 2009 annual report Subgroup Outlook 2010 And Beyond 2010E (status Q1 2010) 2012E Group HealthCare Pharma below, Consumer Health above market growth adj. sales increase of ~3% increase in uebitda at least market growth steady improvement of uebitda CropScience slightly above market growth equivalent to adjusted sales increase of 2-3% uebitda level with previous year at least market growth further improvement of uebitda MaterialScience adj. sales increase in the region of 20% plan to more than double uebitda Q2: higher sales and uebitda compared with Q1 10 Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 6 provided economic recovery continues, expect pre-crises sales levels of > 10bn by 2012 considerable increase of uebitda Outlook depends on planning assumptions as detailed in the 2009 annual report

5 New Growth Opportunities Pharma Pipeline Ag BioScience Carbon Nanotubes Emerging Economies On the verge of a new business transforming product cycle Sales expected to triple over the next 10 years Innovative materials for many applications Capturing significant growth Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page R&D And CapEx Budgets HealthCare 1.9bn thereof Pharma 1.6bn 8% MaterialScience 0.2bn CropScience 0.7bn HealthCare 0.5bn 32% MaterialScience 35% 0.5bn 25% 66% 2% 11% 23% Reconciliation 0.05bn Reconciliation 0.2bn CropScience 0.3bn R&D 2010E: ~ 2.9bn CapEx (PPE) 2010E: ~ 1.4bn Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 8

6 Key Pharma Pipeline Assets Potentially Transformational What it does Status Cardiology Xarelto Riociguat inhibits blood clot formation lowers blood pressure in the lung 1st indication launched/ filed; phase III phase III Oncology Nexavar Regorafenib Alpharadin inhibits enzymes important for tumor growth inhibits enzymes important for tumor growth targeted treatment of bone metastases in prostate cancer launched, additional indications in phase II/III phase III phase III Eye Diseases VEGF Trap-Eye inhibits formation of new blood vessels phase III Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 9 We Expect Significant Newsflow From Our Pharma Pipeline in 2010 selection Further data from EINSTEIN program in DVT treatment Xarelto Completion of ROCKET AF trial in stroke prevention in A fib patients Completion of MAGELLAN trial in VTE prevention in medically ill patients First filings in DVT treatment and in stroke prevention Nexavar VEGF-Trap-Eye Visanne Potential newsflow from products in registration Phase III initiation in breast cancer Completion of NExUS lung cancer trial First data from phase III program in wet-amd (VIEW program) Launch for treatment of endometriosis (EU) Xarelto (VTE prevention after hip/knee replacement surgery) (US) Qlaira (OC and treatment of heavy/prolonged menstrual bleeding) (US) Levitra orodispersible tablet (US, EU) YAZ plus (US) Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 10

7 Attractive AgChem Pipeline With Increased Combined Peak Sales Potential of 1.25bn Peak sales potential Peak gross margin > 150 m > 100 m Spirotetramat Penflufen Thiencarbazonemethyl Isotianil Fluopyram Bixafen Bacillus firmus* Indaziflam > 50 m < 50 m Pyrasulfotole * Biological control agent; ** Subject to regulatory approval Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 11 Cyprosulfamide (Safener) Herbicides Fungicides Insecticides Seed Treatment Expected initial launch** 2012 Peak sales potential raised in view of outstanding properties of active ingredients Grow BioScience Sales to 1.4bn by 2018 Planned sales development in million CAGR 12% >1,000 ~1,400 Key growth drivers Fast growing established business in cotton, canola, rice and vegetables Introduction of new varieties Regional expansion CAGR 11% >500 Exploit traits potential through licensing agreements Extension of our crop-portfolio Significant R&D investment (~ 130m in 2009; 200+m in 2012E) 2002* E 2015 E 2018 E *2002 sales pro-forma Bayer + Aventis CropScience R&D capacities strengthened through acquisition of Athenix Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 12

8 Baytubes CNTs in Industrial Scale as Material of Choice For Wind Turbines One of only few companies capable of manufacturing ultra-pure, multi-wall carbon nanotubes (CNT) of a consistently high quality on an industrial scale 200 tons p.a. plant in Leverkusen on stream since 2010 CNTs can be added to polymer matrices or metal systems as a filler or modifier to improve their mechanical strength and impart electrical conducitivity Current cross-sectional market forecast: 25% growth p.a. to US$ 2 billion by 2020 Blades made of carbon and glass fiber-reinforced epoxides with CNTs are 10-30% lighter, the material s impact strength is 20-30% higher and its fatigue properties are % better. CNTs allow longer, yet lighter blades in wind turbines CNTs greatly improve the energy efficiency and economics of wind turbines Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 13 Emerging Markets (BRIC-MST) Account For Almost 19% of Group Sales 2009 sales by market Emerging markets are expected to drive healthcare market growth 42% BRIC-MST 5,708m 18% 25% Other territories 5% 14% Brazil Russia India China Mexico South Korea Turkey IMS predicts 14-17% CAGR (through 2014) in pharmerging markets In 2008 Brazil was the world s largest market for agrochemicals China is the world s largest polycarbonate market, representing more than 50% of global consumption By 2015 China will be the world s largest polyurethanes market Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 14

9 BRIC Countries Bayer is Well Positioned And Capturing Significant Growth Sales by market; % yoy Fx adj. RUSSIA 2008: 0.5bn +41% 2009: 0.5bn +8% BRAZIL 2008: 1.4bn +22% 2009: 1.3bn -4% INDIA 2008: 0.4bn +22% 2009: 0.4bn +1% CHINA* 2008: 1.9bn +6% 2009: 2.1bn +4% *includes PR China, Hongkong, Macau and Taiwan Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 15 Portfolio Management Clearly Defined Investment Priorities Strategic Direction Transaction Financing Strengthen HealthCare Continue to explore opportunities in agbiotech/seeds MaterialScience, organic growth priority, system house concept will be further expanded Balanced mix of debt, equity and portfolio if needed Maintaining single A credit rating category Probable Timing Steady monitoring and active management. Acquisitions and disposals are therefore part of our regular business activities Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 16

10 First Quarter 2010 Additional information Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 17 First Quarter 2010 HealthCare In million, % y-o-y Consumer Health +7% (+7%) 1,338 ( ) Currency & portfolio adjusted 2,531 Pharma -2% (+1%) Highlights US Yaz/Yasmin and Betaferon prevented better performance at Pharma In the US, new healthcare provider and consumer directed initiatives support the recovery of Yaz-family underway Consumer Health with successful start, with all divisions contributing to growth HealthCare 3,869m; +1% (+3%) Underlying EBITDA Underlying EBIT 1,061 1,079 +2% % % % % % Outlook 2010 (updated) HC targets 3% adj. top-line growth (vs. 5% previously) and an increase in uebitda (unchanged) We anticipate that Pharma will grow below and Consumer Health above the market Expect approvals of Yaz Plus and Qlaira ( May, 2010) in the US Expect significant pipeline newsflow Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 09 Q1 10 Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 18

11 HealthCare Top 10 Products Q1 10 sales in million (yoy changes Fx-adj.) ROW U.S. YAZ-Family 189 (+6%) 98 (-29%) 287 (-10%) Betaseron Kogenate Aspirin Nexavar Adalat Mirena Avelox Contour Levitra 172 (-12%) 111 (+8%) 283 (-5%) 162 (-7%) 82 (+16%) 244 (0%) 134 (-9%) 29 (+40%) 163 (-3%) 116 (+18%) 39 (+11%) 155 (+16%) 144 (-6%) 2 ( ) 146 (-6%) 56 (+3%) 87 (+26%) 143 (+17%) 81 (-10%) 54 (+51%) 135 (+8%) 95 (+12%) 36 (-9%) 131 (+5%) 47 (+2%) 39 (+9%) 86 (+5%) Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 19 First Quarter 2010 CropScience In million, % y-o-y BioScience +38% (+29%) Environmental 306 Science +4% (+4%) 170 1,476 CropScience 1,952m; -8% (-10%) Underlying EBITDA % % 179 ( ) Currency & portfolio adjusted Underlying EBIT 617 Crop Protection -15% (-16%) % % +42% % Highlights Delayed start to spring season Volumes down by 10%, selling prices stable Favorable market for high-quality seeds (BioScience +29%) Business gained considerable momentum towards end of quarter Outlook 2010 (updated) Anticipate improving farm economies during Q2/Q3 Target remains slightly above market growth, equivalent to adj. sales growth of 2-3% (previously ~4%) Expect uebitda level with last year (previously slight increase) Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 09 Q1 10 Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 20

12 Q Crop Protection Sales by Region Europe: 779m, -14.5% (-15.9% Fx adj.) Long winter hampered business initially France significantly below high prior-year level (market decline and high pre-season sales) Germany matched strong previous year North America: 267m, -29.4% (-30.3% Fx adj.) Delayed sowing due to cold weather Low commodity prices (corn, wheat) High inventories in the distribution channels (herbicides and fungicides) New pricing strategy Growth in insecticides, seed treatment flat Asia/Pacific: 203m, -1.9% (-6.3% Fx adj.) Slow start due to exceptional weather conditions Business picked up again significantly toward end of the quarter High channel inventories in Japan Low temperatures impacted Herbicides in China Growth of Herbicides in Australia LatAm/Africa/ME: 227m, -4.6% (-5.0% Fx adj.) CP Sales in Brazil Q1 Q Brazil solid season: Q1 impacted by higher inventories in the distribution channel 99 '07/' '08/'09 '09/'10 Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 21 First Quarter 2010 MaterialScience In million, % y-o-y 1,636 1,830 2,038 ( ) Currency & portfolio adjusted 2, % (+38%) (y-o-y) 2,216 Highlights Recovery faster and more pronounced than anticipated Significant increase in demand from key customer industries Selling prices fell by -3% yoy (+1% qoq), volumes up in all product lines Strongest growth was achieved in Asia/Pacific Q1 09 Underlying EBITDA -116 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Q1 10 (y-o-y) 287 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Outlook 2010 (raised) Anticipate a continuing recovery in the relevant markets Target is to increase sales by ~20% (previously >10%) Plan to more than double uebitda (previously: considerable increase) Q2: Higher sales and uebitda compared to Q1 10 Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 22

13 MaterialScience Sales by Key Customer Industries Chemicals 9% 18% Automotive Others (sports, leisure, footwear packaging, medical, etc.) 22% 15% Electro/ Electronics Furniture / Wood 18% 18% Construction Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page Bayer MaterialScience sales by industry BRIC: Market leading positions in fast growing markets 14% of 2009 group sales generated in BRIC Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 24

14 China Has Become Our 3rd Largest Market Within Only a Couple of Years In billion, Δ% Fx.-adj. y-o-y +23% % % CAGR +30% % % 2.1 All growth rates are Fx-adj. Greater China includes PR China, Hongkong, Macau and Taiwan Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page Bayer is One of The Leading International HealthCare Companies in China HealthCare m +26% Impressive growth Driven by both Pharma (+23%) and Consumer Health (+35%) Pharma portfolio includes innovative products like Nexavar, Scilin Insulin (launch 2010E) and Xarelto Top products* Glucobay Adalat Avelox Aspirin Cardio Ultravist Nexavar 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Growth yoy in % Fx adj. *PR of China 30% 35% 70% Significant investment commitment Approx. 4,500 employees 100m over 5 years to set-up a global R&D center in China Beijing manufacturing site expansion (~ 45m through 2015) Partnership withtsinghua university (joint drug discovery, student support) Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 26

15 Strong MaterialScience Foothold in China Generates Growth Opportunities MaterialScience 1.2bn -5% Leading the recovery >25% of 2009 global sales in AsiaPacific (21% in 2007) 16% of 2009 sales in China (12% in 2007) China sales in 2H 09 again 25% above previous year Major investment China already is the world s largest PCS market China is set to become the world s largest PUR market by 2015 Aerial view on Caojing site Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page bn investment program in integrated polymer site in Caojing, China Significant cost advantages through lower conversion costs and energy consumption Direct customer access through local PUR System Houses and PCS compounding facilities Sales refer to BMS only. China includes PR China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. CropScience in Brazil Strong Growth in One of the World s Largest Agchem Markets In million (Fx adj.) Brazil is the 2nd largest market for CropScience Bayer is one of the leading suppliers and growing strongly (20% CAGR between 2006 and 2009) CropScience sales CAGR +20% (+20%) Risk management systems in place to limit the potential impact of reduced credit availability Barter business expanded Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 28

16 Investor Relations Contacts Dr. Alexander Rosar Head of Investor Relations Phone: Dr. Jürgen Beunink Phone: Ilia Kürten Phone: Peter Dahlhoff Phone: Judith Nestmann Phone: Dr. Olaf Weber Phone: Roadshow New York & Boston June 2010 Dr. Marijn Dekkers Page 29

17 Science For A Better Life This presentation may contain forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made by Bayer Group or subgroup management. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the actual future results, financial situation, development or performance of the company and the estimates given here. These factors include those discussed in Bayer s public reports which are available on the Bayer website at The company assumes no liability whatsoever to update these forward-looking statements or to conform them to future events or developments. Disclaimer