International Journal of Korean Studies

Transcription

1 International Journal of Korean Studies ISSN Volume XV, Number 2 Fall/Winter 2011 China s Recent Relations with North Korea Look Beyond Stability The Obama Administration's Korea Policy and the Prospects for the Denuclearization of North Korea The Lee Government s Policy toward the Denuclearization of North Korea and its Implications for South-North Korean Relations Nuclear Strategy, Political Succession and the Survival of the Kim Regime The North Korean Economy After the 2009 Currency Reform: Problems and Prospects The U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Looking Ahead Prospects and Potential Challenges The Integration of North Korean Defectors in South Korea: Problems and Prospects American Missionaries and the Korean Independence Movement in the Early 20 th Century International Council on Korean Studies Council on Korea-U.S. Security Studies

2 International Journal of KOREAN STUDIES Volume XV Number 2 Fall/Winter 2011

3 ISSN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF KOREAN STUDIES Volume XV, Number 2 (Fall/Winter 2011) EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Hugo Wheegook Kim, East-West Research Institute MANAGING EDITOR Jack L. Hammersmith, West Virginia University Editorial Assistant: Donna MacIsaac EDITORS Kwang Soo Cheong, Johns Hopkins Univ. Samuel S. Kim, Columbia University Uk Heo, University of Wisconsin- Milw Haeduck Lee, The World Bank Nam-Sung Huh, Korea National Defense Univ. Jin Young Park, American University Young Whan Kihl, Iowa State University Yoon-shik Park, George Wash. University Young-Key Kim-Renaud, George Wash. U. Hang Yul Rhee, Shepherd University Hong Nack Kim, West Virginia University Terence J. Roehrig, U.S. Naval War Ilpyong J. Kim, University of Connecticut Dennis Roy, East-West Center (Honolulu) Jinill Kim, Federal Reserve System Jai P. Ryu, Loyola College EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD Yong-Ho Choe, University of Hawaii Soon Paik, U.S. Department of Labor Bruce Cumings, University of Chicago Jong O. Ra, Hollins U. and Virginia Wonmo Dong, University of Washington Jae Kap Ryoo, Kyonggi University Carter Eckert, Harvard University Eui-Hang Shin, University of South Carol Hak-joon Kim, The Dong-A Ilbo David I. Steinberg, Georgetown University Han Kyo Kim, University of Cincinnati Robert G. Sutter, Georgetown University Jae-Chang Kim, Korea-U.S. Security Studies William J. Taylor, Jr., CSIS & Georgetown Youn-Suk Kim, Kean University Richard W. Wilson, Rutgers University Chae-Jin Lee, Claremont-McKenna College Yong Soon Yim, Sungkyunkwan Univ Marcus Noland, Inst. for Intl. Economics Jang H. Yoo, Ehwa Women s University Edward A. Olsen, Naval Post Grad. School Young Kwan Yoon, Seoul Natl. University EDITORIAL INFORMATION Contributors should submit one copy of the paper that is pages in length, doublespaced, 12 point font with one-inch margins and endnotes accompanied by an electronic file compatible with the current version of MS Word. Unpublished original papers must provide full documentation in conformance with the standards in the current edition of the Chicago Manual of Style. Papers are to be submitted to Dr. Hugo W. Kim, Editor-in-Chief, International Journal of Korean Studies, Lee Highway, Suite 208, Centreville, VA , U.S.A. Contact: Tel (703) , Fax (703) , and at hugo33kim@vacoxmail.com. The International Journal of Korean Studies is indexed and abstracted in the references of major social sciences, and all of its articles are accessible through the Columbia International Affairs. Online by the Columbia University Press and Asia-Studies Online. ii

4 ISSN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF KOREAN STUDIES Volume XV, Number 2 Fall/Winter 2011 Contents China s Recent Relations with North Korea Look Beyond Stability Robert Sutter 1 The Obama Administration's Korea Policy and the Prospects for the Denuclearization of North Korea Larry A. Niksch 17 The Lee Government s Policy toward the Denuclearization of North Korea and its Implications for South-North Korean Relations Hong Nack Kim 43 Nuclear Strategy, Political Succession and the Survival of the Kim Regime Young Whan Kihl 75 The North Korean Economy After the 2009 Currency Reform: Problems and Prospects Dick K. Nanto 105 The U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Looking Ahead--Prospects and Potential Challenges William Cooper and Mark Manyin 127 The Integration of North Korean Defectors in South Korea: Problems and Prospects Tara O 151 American Missionaries and the Korean Independence Movement in the Early 20 th Century K. Kale Yu 171 The International Journal of Korean Studies is copyrighted under U.S. law International Council on Korean Studies iii

5 ISSN NTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF KOREAN STUDIES The International Journal of Korean Studies (IJKS) is published twice a year jointly by the International Council on Korean Studies (ICKS) and the Council on Korea-U.S. Security Studies (COKUSS). Annual Subscription Rates: $35 for individual subscriptions, and $60 for institutional and international subscriptions. All the members of ICKS are entitled to receive the journal automatically, and all issues of IJKS are posted on the ICKS website at Contact: International Council on Korean Studies (ICKS) Lee Highway, Suite 208, Centreville, VA , U.S.A. Tel (703) , Fax (703) , at hugo33kim@vacoxmail.com ICKS Website Home: INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON KOREAN STUDIES (ICKS) ICKS is a non-profit and non-partisan organization dedicated to the advancement of Korean studies and related academic and professional activities in the United States as well as abroad through conferences, publications, and other relevant activities. EXECUTIVE BOARD President: Soon Paik Vice Presidents: Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr. and Richard T. Shin Secretary General: Kwang Soo Cheong, Treasurer: Won Eok Kim IJKS Editor-in-Chief: Hugo Wheegook Kim BOARD OF DIRECTORS Chairman: Hong Nack Kim, Vice Chairman: Lai-Sung Kim Members: Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr., Kwang Soo Cheong, Walter Choi, Young Back Choi, Uk Heo, Soon Kyung Hong, Yong Hwangbo, Dong-Keun Jeong, Pilju Kim Joo, Jae O. Kang, Young Whan Kihl, Hugo Wheegook Kim, Ilpyong J. Kim, Kinney H. Kim, Se Ung Kim, Ung Soo Kim, Youn-Suk Kim, Haeduck Lee, Woong B. Lee, Yoon-shik Park, Jong O. Ra, Hang Yul Rhee, Steve Y. Rhee, Terence J. Roehrig, Jai P. Ryu, Eui Hang Shin, Richard T. Shin AUDITORS: Jaewoo Lee and Seon-Young Ahn COUNCIL ON KOREA-U.S. SECURITY STUDIES (COKUSS) The Council on Korea-U.S. Security Studies was established in 1984 as a not-for-profit organization by a group of retired military officers, diplomats, and scholars from the United States and Korea. The Council aims to promote studies on political, economic, and military relations between two countries by exchanges of opinions and ideas among theorists and practitioners through conferences and publications. EXECUTIVE BOARD Co-Chairman: John H. Tilelli, Jr. and Jae-Chang Kim Directors: Jae-Kap Ryoo, Hugo Wheegook Kim, and Nam-Sung Huh BOARD OF DIRECTORS Co-Chairman: John H. Tilelli, Jr. and Jae-Chang Kim Members: Jong-Chun Baek, Nam-Sung Huh, Kwang-On Hyun, Il Hwa Jung, Hee-Sang Kim, Yong- Ok Park, Jae-Kap Ryoo, Yong Soon Yim, Raymond P. Ayres, Jr., Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr., Hugo Wheegook Kim, Patrick M. Morgan AUDITORS: Taewoo Kim and Dae-Sung Song iv

6

7 CONTRIBUTORS William H. Cooper is a Specialist in International Trade and Finance in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division in the Congressional Research Service (CRS). For more than 25 years, he has been providing Congress with analyses on a range of subjects pertaining to U.S. foreign trade and international economic policy, including: the U.S.-South Korean free trade agreement; U.S.-South Korean economic relations; U.S.-Japan economic relations; trade relations with other East Asian economies; the Russian economy and U.S.-Russian economic relations; free trade agreements in U.S. trade policy; and trade in services. Before coming to CRS, Cooper worked for the Department of Defense, GAO, and the U.S. Department of Commerce. William Cooper is 1977 graduate of the George Washington University s Elliot School, having received a Masters degree in Russian studies. In 1982 he received a Masters degree in economics from GW s Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. He did his undergraduate work in International Affairs at Georgetown University s School of Foreign Service. Young Whan Kihl is Professor of Political Science, Emeritus, at Iowa State University, Ames. He is a recipient of the 2005 Regent s Award for Faculty Excellence from the State of Iowa and also the 2005 Global Korea Award from Michigan State University. He was a visiting professor at Stanford University s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, , a visiting scholar at Georgetown University Asian Studies Program, , and an exchange professor at the Sejong Institute in He taught at Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies, 1997, and also at Ehwa Woman s University Graduate School of International Studies, , the latter as a Fulbright Professor. He has written numerous books on Korean politics, both North and South. Included in the list of his recent books are: North Korea: The Politics of Regime Survival, 2006 (coeditor) and Transforming Korean Politics: Democracy, Reform, and Culture, He currently resides in Laguna Woods, CA, is a member of the International Council on Korea Studies board of directors, and served as an editor-in-chief of the International Journal of Korean Studies from 2004 to Direct inquiry to ykihl23@gmail.com. v

8 Hong Nack Kim (Ph.D., Georgetown University) is a Professor of Political Science at West Virginia University. He was a visiting Fulbright Professor at Keio University (1979, 1982) and Fulbright Professor of Political Science at Seoul National University ( ). He served as president of the Association of Korean Political Scientists in North America. Formerly editor-in-chief of the International Journal of Korean Studies, he has contributed over 130 book chapters and articles to journals, including Asian Survey, Pacific Affairs, Current History, World Politics, World Affairs, and Problems of Communism, Journal of Northeast Asian Affairs, Journal of Asian Affairs, Asian Affairs: An American Review, Asia Quarterly, Korea Observer, Korea and World Affairs. He has also authored or edited seven books, including North Korea: The Politics of Regime Survival (M.E. Sharpe, 2006). He was a visiting POSCO Fellow at the East West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, in the fall of He is recipient of the Outstanding Research Award, Eberly College of Arts & Science, West Virginia University. Currently he is chairman of the Board of Directors, International Council of Korean Studies, Washington, D.C. Mark Manyin is a Specialist in Asian Affairs at the Congressional Research Service (CRS), a non-partisan agency that provides information and analysis to members of the U.S. Congress and their staff. At CRS, Dr. Manyin=s general area of expertise is U.S. foreign economic policy toward East Asia, particularly Japan, the two Koreas, and Vietnam. He also tracks the evolution of Asia's regional architecture, terrorism in Southeast Asia, and the environmental causes of security tensions in Asia. From , Dr. Manyin served as the head of the CRS= 11- person Asia Section, overseeing the Service=s research on East, Southeast, and South Asia as well as Australasia and the Pacific Islands. Prior to joining CRS in 1999, Dr. Manyin completed his Ph.D. in Japanese trade policy and negotiating behavior at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He has written academic articles on Vietnam and Korea, given numerous lectures on U.S.-East Asian relations, taught courses in East Asian international relations, and worked as a business consultant. From , Dr. Manyin was a Term Member with the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Manyin is a Council on Foreign Relations Hitachi Fellow. vi

9 Dick K. Nanto is a Specialist in Industry and Trade (senior level) and former Head of both the International Trade and Finance Section and the Asia Section at the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress. He works primarily on U.S. trade and financial relations with and economic conditions in Asia. He received his M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in economics from Harvard University, a M.S. degree from the National War College in national security studies, and formerly was an Assistant Professor of Economics at Brigham Young University and Adjunct Professorial Lecturer at Johns Hopkins University. He has published numerous journal articles, reports, and chapters in books. Included in his recent reports to Congress are: The Global Financial Crisis: Analysis and Policy Implications, U.S. International Trade: Trends and Forecasts, North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis, The Global Financial Crisis: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decade of the 1990s, The Global Financial Crisis: Foreign and Trade Policy Effects, East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy, and The Kaesong North-South Korean Industrial Complex. Larry Allen Niksch (Ph.D., Georgetown University) is a specialist in Asian Affairs with the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress. He specializes in U.S. security policy in East Asia and the Western Pacific and internal political conditions of the countries of the region. In addition to his reports published by the Congressional Research Service and congressional committees, he has written articles for a number of journals and newspapers in the United States and the Asia-Pacific countries. He is interviewed frequently by East Asian and U.S. media outlets and by the Voice of America and Radio Free Asia. Dr. Niksch is a Senior Adviser on East Asia to The PRS (Political Risk Services Group), is an adviser to the Asia Service of The WEFA Group, and is a consultant to Lloyd, Thomas and Ball international business consulting service. He is a member of the editorial board of New Asia (Seoul, Korea). Dr. Tara O is Faculty Researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies. Her research areas include Korean contingency and unification, U.S. alliance relationships in Asia, and social integration of North Korean defectors. She worked on a variety of defense, security and political-military issues at the Pentagon, the Combined Forces vii

10 Command/U.S. Forces Korea, and the U.S. European Command. She has also worked in Asia, Europe, and Africa in the private, public, and nongovernmental sectors. She holds a BA in International Relations from the University of California at Davis, an MPA in Public Policy and International Affairs from Princeton University, and a Ph.D. in Public Policy from the University of Texas at Austin. Robert G. Sutter is Professor of Practice in International Affairs at the Elliott School of George Washington University beginning in His earlier full-time position was Visiting Professor of Asian Studies at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University ( ). A Ph.D. graduate in History and East Asian Languages from Harvard University, Sutter taught part-time for over thirty years at Georgetown, George Washington, Johns Hopkins and the University of Virginia. He has published 19 books, over 200 articles and several hundred government reports dealing with contemporary East Asian and Pacific countries and their relations with the United States. His most recent book is U.S.-Chinese Relations: Perilous Past, Pragmatic Present (Rowman and Littlefield, 2010). Sutter s government career ( ) involved work on Asian and Pacific affairs and US foreign policy for the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress, the Central Intelligence Agency, the Department of State, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was for many years the Senior Specialist and Director of the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Division of the Congressional Research Service. He also was the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia and the Pacific at the US Government s National Intelligence Council, and the China Division Director at the Department of State s Bureau of Intelligence and Research. K. Kale Yu is an Assistant Professor of History at Nyack College in Nyack, New York. He received his Ph.D. from Columbia University in 2009 and his research focuses on Korean, Asian, and Asian American Christianity. He is working on a book manuscript, The Quest for the Korean Christ. His most recent publication is an article in Methodist History titled "Hawaiian Connectionalism: Methodist Missionaries, Hawaii Mission and Korean Ethnic Churches" (forthcoming in the October 2011 issue). After graduating from Princeton Theological Seminary (M.Div.), he pursued his research on the intersection of Neo- Confucianism and budding Christian movements. He is currently viii

11 working on an article examining the Neo-Confucian roots in Korean and Korean American Christianity. In 2009, he was a Summer Wesley Fellow at Duke Divinity School where he continued his research on Asian and Asian American Christianity. ix

12