ENVIRONMENTAL ATLAS SEMINAR

Transcription

1 ENVIRONMENTAL ATLAS SEMINAR EnSaCo - Project Stockholm, 3 rd - 4 th May 2011 Authors: Daniel Depellegrin (sensitivity expert) Nerijus Bla auskas Dolf De Groot Coastal Research and Planning Institute (CORPI), Klaipeda University, Lithuania Wageningen University, The Netherlands

2 Outline - Oil spill risks in Lithuanian coastal areas - Lithuanian sensitivity analysis in Current developments in Lithuanian ESI mapping - monetary indicators for marine sensitive areas and visualization - conclusions

3 Oil spill risks in Lithuania Butinge SPM Buoy tons (2008) - 59 tons (2005) and 3 tons (2001) -3.4 tons (1999) Vessel traffic to/from Klaipeda port Zone 1 tranship of cargos Zone 2 Butinge oil terminal tranship Zone 3 ship traffic line to Klaipeda Port Zone 4 traffic from and to Butinge oil terminal Zone 5 oil spills due to deviation from course Zone 6 no tanker traffic D 6 Kravtsovskoye drilling platform - 67% of scenarios oil masses drift to Curonian Spit - 35% of scenarios reach beaches from Lukoil, 2004

4 Sensitivity maps in the Environmental Atlas of sensitivity to oil pollution environmental components... (Vaitkus & Lazauskiene, 1998) based on IMO standards in terms of: - symbology - scales and thematic layers Study area: - divided in 7 regions - Sensitivity ranking: - sensitive to pollution - very sensitive to pollution sensitivity analysis is partly based on the impact of Globe Assimi spill in 1981(17,000 tons) Palanga Nida Klaipeda No methodological description available Database is on concentration of biological resources - Birds (individuals/km²) - Benthos (biomass) - fish biomass - Young fish Seasonality is taken into account only for birds

5 Sensitivity Index mapping 2010 Two major coastal segments CS = Curonian Spit (52 km Lithuanian part) MC = Mainland Coast (46 km till Latvian border) the assessment started during Baltic Master 1 (2007) Study domain = Lithuanian Coastal Strip...the coastal stripe was identified as a spatial domain, embracing the area within the sea waters up to 20 m isobath and 300 m inland area (including the terrestrial part of the Curonian Spit)...(Lithuanian Ministry of Environment) grid system based on 87 coastal cells coastal cells = response management units

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7 Coastal features - grain size - shoreline slope VERY HIGH - geodynamic regime HIGH MODERATE LOW CS coastal cell (no.) MC Based on standard ESI shoreline classification from (NOAA 2002) - shoreline slope (relative steep) - Geodynamic regime (transitional/ erosional/ accumulative) - grain size (fine quartz sand - seldom boulders and pebbles)

8 Biological resources Mainland Coast: benthic communities (>2000 g/m²) algal beds (furcellaria lumbricalis) baltic herring (spawning grounds) sea birds: Velvet scooter (1837 birds/km²) Herring Gull (28 birds/km²) Long tailed duck (142 birds/km²) auks and gulls (10 30 ind./km²) Curonian Spit (Nida Juodkrante) Important foraging area for seabirds Food resource for cod Benthic communities: Mytilus edulis /Macoma Balitca sea birds auks (10 30 ind./km²) sea ducks (100 >300 ind./km²) gulls (10 30 ind./km²) adopted from Zydelis, 2006

9 Fishery resources 4 fishery regions Direct pricing method: annual economic revenue (mill. LTL/year) based on ex vessel prices - Region 1 - < Region Region Region 4 - > 0.4 Fish species: 1- cod; 2- herring; 3- salmon; 4- smelt; 5- bream; 6- pike perch; 7- vimba; 8- white fish

10 Socio-economic resources Recreational areas are the characteirzing factor within socio-economic ESI maps 3 Blue Flag beaches: Juodkrante/ Nida Central Beach/ Palanga over 62 coastal cells cover management areas and nature reserves: International bird areas (IBA) Palanga Seaside Park Curonian Spit (UNESCO World Heritage)

11 Overall Environmental Sensitivity Index average contribution OESI = ESI C + ESI B + ESI F + ESI SE 100% 80% 60% 40% very high high medium low 20% 0% ESI_C ESI_B ESI_F ESI_SE OESI sensitivity maps

12 Mapping monetary values: Ecosystem Services assessment/damage costs ecosystem services - conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and species,sustain and fulfill human life (Daily, 1997) (1) Identification of BASELINE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES...the baseline ecosystem services are the expected monetary value of ecosystem services in period t, if the impact site is left undisturbed. According to the baseline of an ecosystem is its level of provision, that the environment can ensure before being affected by an adverse circumstance or perturbation of any source... Carson et al. (1992) (2) economic evaluation methods (unit = /ha/year) Direct market evaluation fishery resources Indirect valuation methods: - Travel Cost Method recreational areas - Benefit Transfer Method biological resources, birds (Costanza et al.,1997) (3) Total economic value = E recreational + E marine + E firshery + E birds (4) GIS based mapping of monetary values Damage costs estimation Damage...harm or injury to property and persons loss of value or impairment of usefulness... (5) potential damage cost Index development (6) Scenario based damage cost mapping (with Seatrack Web; SMHI) - oil dispersion model - oil weathering model (7) Scenario matrix (8) GIS-based damage visualization Author: D. Depellegrin 2011

13 Baseline Ecosystem services in the Lithuanian Coastal Zone SPATIAL SCALING MARINE -habitat/ refugia/ overwintering grounds - food production/ foraging areas - nutrient cycling/ - disturbance regulation (Seagrass) SOCIO - ECONOMIC -Zonal scheme of visitation rates -visitor typology Annual income by visitor typology Curonian Spit : CS 1 Klaipėda /Smiltynė; CS 2 Nida; CS 3 Juodkrantė; CS 4 Pervalka; CS 5 Preila. Mainland coast: MC1 Palanga; 2 Šventoji; 3 Karklė; 4 Giruliai/ Melnragė.

14 Visualization methods: Google earth-based ESI mapping Integration of ESI maps into a powerful visualization platform, providing an alternative front-end spatial tool in oil spill sensitivity mapping Providing a multilayer based interface Data enquiries are possible to userspecific level of detail Potential support to dynamic oil spill risks (vessel traffic) e.g. Application example as DSS in marine vessel traffic: piracy control/ prevention in Somalia (Jakob et al.,2010) Data enquiry: Overall Recreational Sensitivity areas Mapping (Mainland Coast)

15 Visualization methods: damage cost visualization scenario - dependent oil spill damage mapping using Seatrack Web 30 km impact area on most valuable Lithuanian coastal resources 17,000 tons oil spill for light, medium and heavy oil Coastal areas in front of Palanga register the highest impact Mainland coast (1) Heavy oil (2) Medium oil (3) Light oil Author: D. Depellegrin 2011 (unpublished)

16 Conclusions 2 areas of high sensitivity ESI maps are not operational The sensitivity analysis is a methodological example rather than a definitive analysis...(1) an example how modern methods can be applied within out dated datasets...(2) how methods can enhance visualization the dataset is partly out dated ( ): - drastic changes from intensification of fishery activity changes in spawning grounds and bird dynamics (Vaitkus personal comm.) -Seasonal sensitivity in ESI mapping not considered Ecosystem services assessment the method breaks down complex spatial and multi-scale pollution problems into a unique monetary value huge data aggregation need (far beyond than resources location mapping) Methodological challenge: toxicological value ecosystem services disruption

17 QUESTIONS?

18 References Cesnauskas m MODEL FOR PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF OIL OUTFLOW EVENT CAUSED BY TANKER ACCIDENT. TRANSPORT 2007, Vol XXII, No 3, De Groot, D., Wilson M.A., Boumans R.M.J., A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services. Ecological Economics 41 Depellegrin, D., Bla auskas, N., de Groot, R., Mapping the Lithuanian Baltic Sea coast sensitivity to oil spills. Baltica, 23 (2), xx-xx. Vilnius. ISSN Lukoil, SATELLITE MONITORING OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BALTIC SEA. ANNUAL REPORT 2004 Offringa H., Lahr J., Inventory, classification and risk assessment of oil transport on the North Sea Report No A09 > Revision No 4 Sanctuary M., Feyes J., What is missing form measures of Oil Spill Damage? A closer look at ecosystem services and policy responses. IVL Swedish Environmental Institute YDELIS, R., DAGYS, M. & VAITKUS, G Beached bird surveys in Lithuania reflect marine oil pollution and bird mortality in fishing nets. Marine Ornithology 34: Costanza, R., D Arge, R., de Groot, R., Farber, S., Grasso, M., Hannon, B., The value of the world s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature Vol.387