International perspective: contribution to a European approach

Transcription

1 Henrik Skov, DHI Water Environment Environment Health International perspective: contribution to a European approach we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009

2 Potential conflicts between OWF development and conservation interests Same sub-littoral zone m targeted by the offshore wind industry and internationally important concentrations of birds and mammals Harbour porpoise Source: Skov et al we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009

3 However, main areas comprise a small proportion of target development areas Areas targeted by seabirds and marine mammals are few and large Common scoter Red-/Black-throated diver Velvet scoter Cumulative proportion Cumulative proportion Cumulative proportion we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009

4 Key areas for wide-ranging species comprise a network of internationally important areas Few key areas focus for fly-way conservation we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009

5 Estimation of displacement effect ranges for divers from OWFs Some data from Horns Rev 1 and Nysted OWFs More data expected from Kentish Flats and Horns Rev 2 Source: Petersen et al Source: Petersen et al London Array Diver Model ORP meeting 25 Nov 09

6 Estimation of displacement effect ranges for common scoter from OWFs Some data from Horns Rev 1 Complex response, including use of razor clam stocks in OWF Source: Petersen et al Source: Petersen et al London Array Diver Model ORP meeting 25 Nov 09

7 Estimation of displacement effect ranges for harbour porpoise during OWF construction (pile-driving) Some data from Horns Rev 1 Complex response, including use of razor clam stocks in OWF Source: Petersen et al Source: Skov & Thomsen 2007 London Array Diver Model ORP meeting 25 Nov 09

8 Henrik Skov, DHI Water Environment Environment Health A common strategic perspective for offshore wind farm development Nature conservation priorities Existing plans Development potential Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009

9 Henrik Skov, DHI Water Environment Environment Health Existing plans (example Denmark) developed entirely from legal requirements and field data Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009

10 Henrik Skov, DHI Water Environment Environment Health Development potential (example 3.6 MW turbine Denmark) Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009

11 From empirical (population) models to regional habitat prediction models Determination of habitat quality in the target zones for offshore wind (example birds)» Red-/Black-throated diver» Northern gannet» Common scoter» Velvet scoter Distribution» Common eider» Long-tailed duck» Little gull Prey» Black guillemot» Harbour porpoise Hydrodynamics Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009

12 Why spatial modelling? Low power of survey data Count data are not representative of system dynamics London Array Diver Model ORP meeting 25 Nov 09 Source: MacLean et al. 2008

13 Spatial modelling Concept

14 Assessing habitat quality in a dynamic environment Teasing out linkages between hydrodynamic forcings and responses in benthic and pelagic animals using empirical data from offshore wind development regions Biological field data Static statistical distribution model Empirical data Calibration Regional hydrodynamic model Dynamic habitat model we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009

15 Assessing habitat quality in a dynamic environment Example: Benthic habitat prediction (mussel growth) 52 interacting state variables (e.g. nutrients, oxygen, phytoplankton and food availability for mussels) we@sea Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009

16 Establish quantitative links between CCI index and biodiversity Important Bird Areas Baltic Sea Modelled CCI 2002

17 Establish quantitative links between CCI index and biodiversity 5.0 Aythya fuligula (log n+1) 4.0 Bucephala clangula (log n+1) R 2 = R 2 =0.64 Predicted Predicted Observed Observed 4.0 Somateria mollissima (log n+1) 3.5 Clangula hyemalis (log n+1) R 2 = R 2 =0.49 Predicted Predicted Observed Observed

18 Pelagic habitat prediction

19 Quasi-dynamic spatial model based on hydrodynamic data

20 Red-throated diver habitat ROFI specialist

21 Current models London Array Diver Model ORP meeting 25 Nov 09

22 Quasi-dynamic spatial model based on hydrodynamic data

23 International co-ordination badly needed to minimise impacts and break down environmental barriers to the sector Potential ecological impacts aggregated in space efficient mitigation by improved planning measures Conference den Helder 1-2 December 2009