November 2008 Oregon TWS Meeting The Dalles, Oregon. Wallace Erickson Western EcoSystems Technology, Inc. Cheyenne, Wyoming

Transcription

1 November 2008 Oregon TWS Meeting The Dalles, Oregon Wallace Erickson Western EcoSystems Technology, Inc. Cheyenne, Wyoming

2 Outline Fatality Impacts Avoidance/Minimization Collision Risk Modeling Cumulative Impacts Habitat

3 History of the Avian/Wind Turbine Issue Altamont Pass, CA turbines high number of raptor fatalities discovered golden eagles (30-70 fatalities per year) red-tailed hawks ( fatalities per year) American kestrels (several hundred) Burrowing owls ( ? per year) Result: New wind plants often heavily scrutinized

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5 Illustration from APWRA of scale issues in Per turbine metric 660 KW turbine 100 kw turbine Not exactly to scale

6 Fatality monitoring studies covering all seasons of occupancy for a 12 month period adjusted for carcass detection and carcass removal biases Hopkins Ridge, WA Combine Hills, OR NPPD Ainsworth, NE Condon, OR High Winds, CA Altamont, CA NWTC, CO Diablo Winds, CA Montezuma Hills, CA Tehachapi Pass, CA San Gorgonio, CA New Project since NWCC 2001 Summary Data reported in NWCC 2001 Summary Buffalo Gap Additional data collected since NWCC 2001 Summary Top of Iowa Algona Iowa Maple Ridge, NY Searsburg, VT Meyersdale, PA Somerset, PA

7 1% 6% 1% 1% 2% ALL REGIONS National Composition 1% 11% 3% Doves/Pigeons Gamebirds Other Birds Passerines Rails/Coots Raptors/Vultures Shorebirds Unidentified Birds Waterbirds Waterfowl 74% Proportion of fatalities at sites reporting fatalities by species, summarized for All Regions Where studies have been conducted (Pacific North West Mid-West, Rocky Mountains, and East (sources in literature cited).

8 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 6% East Region Doves/Pigeons Gamebirds Other Birds Passerines Rails/Coots Raptors/Vultures Shorebirds Unidentified Birds Waterbirds Waterfowl 81%

9 1% 5% 6% 3% 2% Midwest Region 1% 2% Doves/Pigeons 2% Gamebirds Other Birds Passerines Rails/Coots Raptors/Vultures Shorebirds Unidentified Birds Waterbirds Waterfowl 78%

10 6% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% Rocky Mountain Doves/Pigeons Gamebirds Other Birds Passerines Rails/Coots Raptors/Vultures Shorebirds Unidentified Birds Waterbirds Waterfowl 86%

11 7% 1% 1% 1% 1% Pacific Northwest 18% Doves/Pigeons Gamebirds 2% Other Birds Passerines Rails/Coots Raptors/Vultures Shorebirds Unidentified Birds Waterbirds Waterfowl 69%

12 Pacific Northwest 636 records 73 species Horned lark Golden-crowned kinglet American kestrel and red-tailed hawk Species Number of Percent Fatalities Composition horned lark golden-crowned kinglet ring-necked pheasant gray partridge chukar western meadowlark American kestrel unidentified passerine European starling dark-eyed junco mourning dove white-crowned sparrow red-tailed hawk yellow-rumped warbler rock pigeon unidentified bird winter wren short-eared owl ruby-crowned kinglet black-billed magpie northern flicker unidentified sparrow house wren Townsend s warbler Brewer s sparrow red-breasted nuthatch American robin Canada goose common nighthawk unidentified kinglet 4 0.6

13 Fatality Monitoring Objectives Determine whether overall avian and bat fatality rates or raptor fatality rates are low, moderate, or high relative to other projects Determine whether predicted mortality is a reasonable estimate Determine whether a wind project has a fatality problem # bird fatalities/mw/yr Bird Fatality Estimates CA old turbines Pacific Northwest Rocky Mountain Upper Midwest East SG ALT SL VAN KLO NC FC1 FC2 WIS BR1 BR2 BR3 BM MO

14 Other Fatality Monitoring Objectives Compare rates to exposure or relative abundance Estimate the influence of weather on fatality levels Estimate the effect of lighting Determine effectiveness of minimization or mitigation measures Similar methods and metrics for across site comparisons

15 Progression of fatality metrics Altamont = ~0.1/turbine/year or 1/MW/yr (Orloff 1992) Per turbine estimates from a few studies Assumes fatality rates the same for 600 kw to 1.8 MW Per Nameplate MW or per RSA estimates Would like actual power production

16 Summary of fatalities for all Birds displayed by landscape type for 19 sites # Bird Fatalities / MW WI B1 B2 B3 TI VA NC SL CH K1 K2 HR BM MO DW HW F1 F2 AI Agriculture Ag / Grass / CRP Forest Grass / Steppe Wind Project

17 0.6 Summary of fatalities for raptors displayed by landscape type for 19 sites # Raptor Fatalities / MW WI B1 B2 B3 TI VA NC SL CH K1 K2 HR BM MO DW HW F1 F2 AI Agriculture Ag / Grass / CRP Forest Grass / Steppe Wind Project

18 Project Fatality Rates (#/MW/yr) Raptors All birds Nocturnal Migrants Source Combine Hills, OR Young et al Klondike, I OR Johnson et al. 2003a Klondike II, OR NWC and WEST, 2007 Vansycle, OR Erickson et al Stateline, WA/OR Erickson et al Hopkins Ridge, WA Young et al Nine Canyon, WA Erickson et al Wild Horse, WA Erickson et al Bighorn I, WA Kronner et al Mean

19 Raptor Use Raptor Fatality Range: /MW/yr Facilities High Winds Diablo Winds Hopkins Ridge Klondike Klondike II Stateline Nine Canyon Foote Creek Rim Vansycle Buffalo Ridge Combine Hills

20 Limitations and Supporting Studies All raptors treated equally Migration vs. Resident Need data to fill in gaps Altamont (2008) Monthly use correlated with monthly fatality rates for red-tail hawks No correlation for American kestrels

21 Proportion of flights below and within the rotor swept area from studies conducted in the Pacific Northwest Pacific Northwest Studies Flight Height Characteristics Species 0-25m m American kestrel Ferruginous hawk Red-tailed hawk Golden eagle Northern harrier Swainson's hawk From select studies: not a full summary of all studies

22 Offshore GE 3.6 MW 104 meter rotor diameter Slide provided by Bob Thresher, NREL

23 Avian Strike Probability Versus Turbine Size Altamont Scale Next Generation Scale 93 Meter Diameter and 2.5MW 15 Meter Diameter and 100 kw

24 Large vs. Small Turbines Diablo Winds 660 kw turbines in the Altamont Other Turbines in the Altamont ( kw) All raptors 63% fewer raptors killed per MW/yr American kestrels - 84% fewer Red-tailed hawks - 34% fewer Golden eagles none found Burrowing owls - 34% fewer Reference (Altamont Monitoring Team 2008)

25 Lighting and Birds Meta-analysis suggests no large differences in fatality rates at lit and unlit turbines Gehring (2008) work in Michigan supports this result Summary of Comparison of Fatality Rates for Lit and Unlit T Fatility Comparison Project lit minus unlit rate Stat. sign. Klondike - not sign. Stateline + not sign. Nine Canyon + not sign. High Winds + not sign. Wisconsin + not sign. Vansycle + not sign. Mountain eer + not sign. Big Horn - not sign. Wildhorse + not sign.

26 EAGLES Siting F Rim Edge 30 E T20N Micro-Siting Examples 1 D 4 T19N C 12 8 Updrafts B 13 Habitat A Arlington 20 A Eagle Observation Approximate Raptor Point Count Location Project Area Boundary Saddles Nests Section Boundary 0 ½ 1 2

27 EAGLES 1999 FOOTE CREEK RIM WYOMING F Rim Edge 30 E T20N T19N 1 D 4 12 C 8 Use w/i rsa 1.0 Eagles Us 13 B A 20 Eagle Observation Arlington A Approximate Raptor Point Count Location 0.0 off rim rim edge on rim Project Area Boundary Section Boundary 0 ½ 1 2

28 STATELINE WIND PROJECT Avoid Saddles Avoid Windward Side of Ridges

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30 Collision Risk Modeling Approach used when: No empirical fatality data Sensitive species To try to estimate avoidance Rotor Zone Over-flight Strike Zone Fatality Risk Fly-thru

31 Collision Model Individual-based model to determine bird/turbine collision probability Model features Turbine design: static & dynamic characteristics Wind farm layout: number & spatial arrangement of turbines Bird characteristics o Body size o Flight altitude, speed, & direction o Avoidance behavior Local wind conditions: speed & direction Incorporates Tucker (1996) model for collision with blades Accounts for collision with tower & nacelle

32 Collision Model Simulates individual flights through the wind farm Collision probability = proportion of flights that end in collision Rotor Zone Over-flight Strike Zone Fatality Risk Fly-thru

33 Wind Park Avoidance

34 Model Inputs Bird Flight Characteristics Percentage of Observations Height (m)

35 Turbine Characteristics Rotor RPM Wind Speed (m/s)

36 Tucker Model Collision Probability

37 Example Output Inputs Results Avoidance Probability of Collision Fatalities Tower, Nacelle Tucker N Y N Y N Y Flight Height Total Rotor Tower Nacelle Year 20 Years Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

38 COMM TOWER 105 M HEIGHT 1.25 MILES OF WIRE TURBINE 65 M RD 92 M MAX HEIGHT Relative Risk of Collision Among Structure Types BIRD WITH A 1-FT WINGSPAN HAS 3 TIMES THE LIKELIHOOD OF COLLISION WITH THE GUYED STRUCTURE THAN THE TURBINE Major Assumptions: (1) Equal Avoidance Of Turbine And Guyed Structure, (2)Flight Perpendicular To Swept Area And 2 Directions Of Wires

39 Met Towers No fatalities observed at the permanent met tower at Nine Canyon 3 TIMES HIGHER MORTALITY AT GUYED TOWER COMPARED TO TURBINE AT FOOTE CREEK RIM ONLY 5 GUYED TOWERS Gehring 2004 guyed comm. Tower 10 times higher mortality than unguyed towers

40 Illustration of accumulation of fatalities under future wind development scenario in the Columbia Basin Fatality estimates from 7 studies in the region Population size from BBS data and PIF modeling Background mortality from literature Population effect?

41 Raptor Nesting Impacts Short-comings low sample size for individual projects Conditioned on distribution of nests at a particular site Short-term vs longterm

42 Raptor Nesting Impacts No suggestion of an effect Montezuma Hills, CA (Howell and Noone 1992) Foote Creek Rim, WY (Johnson et al. 2000) Altamont, CA (Hunt and Hunt 2006) Nine Canyon, OR (Johnson et al. 2003) Stateline, OR/WA Possible Effect Buffalo Ridge, MI (Usgaard et al. 1997) 261 Km 2 surrounding facility density of 5.94/100 Km 2 No nests present in the 32 Km 2 facility, 2 predicted Caution: all studies relatively short-term

43 Radio/GPS-telemetry J. Watson, WDFW

44 Strickland and Morrison Habitat Impacts Habitat Impacts

45 Potential Sources of Habitat Impact Direct loss of habitat Indirect loss of habitat from behavioral response to wind plant facilities Long-term impacts Short-term impacts

46 Predicted Impacts Due to Habitat Disturbance from planning documents (e.g. EIS) Temporary (construction) impacts from roads, pads, substation, etc. (estimated) 0.4 to 3 acres/turbine Permanent (operations) impacts (estimated) 0.7 to 1 acres/turbine Permanent footprint 5-10% of site (BLM 2005) Mitigation can be clearly defined

47 Habitat Loss (direct and indirect) Game species (e.g., elk pronghorn, mule deer, sage grouse, prairie chickens) State and Federal T&E (e.g., Washington ground squirrel) Other Protected species (e.g., golden eagle nesting, prey habitat)

48 Completed and Ongoing Displacement Studies Grassland Songbird Displacement Studies Buffalo Ridge, MN (Leddy 1999, Johnson et al. 2000): Small scale displacement (~80-100m) South Dakota: 1 of 3 species (grasshopper sparrow) showed reduced density within 150m (Schaffer and Johnson 2008) Stateline: Grasshopper sparrow showed displacement effect within 50m Oklahoma: No displacement for grassland species as a group (O Connell and Piorkowski 2006) Minnesota no apparent impact to Greater Prairie Chickens Ongoing and potential studies of bird displacement (e.g., Stateline, N & S Dakota, and prairie chicken in Kansas)

49 Habitat/Displacement Impacts for other bird species Mountain Plover Foote Creek Rim, WY declined at wind plant, a reference area, and regionally Canada geese Top of Iowa no displacement in corn fields Migrating raptors Canada study suggests no avoidance by raptors during migration with one possible exception (NWCC 2008) low power. Europe Some species unaffected while certain waterfowl, shorebirds, and songbirds avoid turbines (e.g., European golden plover, northern lapwing, Eurasian curlews) Pink-footed goose displaced up to 600m

50 Avoidance Behavior can be Significant Radar Tracks of Migrating Birds through Nysted Offshore Windfarm for Operation in 2003 Response distance: day = c. 3000m night = c. 1000m WEST, Inc.

51 Summary No big surprises in cases where mortality data collected in the area/region We know a great deal about rates in some landscapes (e.g., Ag) and some regions (e.g., PNW) Lack of replication of fatality studies, particularly in the northeast and south-central (ongoing studies will be valuable additions) Limited studies with pre-construction diurnal avian use data and post-construction fatality limit predictive ability Raptor use and mortality appear to be related

52 Summary With the possible exception of Altamont, avian risk from individual wind projects appears to be a risk to individual birds and not populations Wind turbine lights not currently documented as a significant attractant for birds Micro and macro siting best ways at reducing mortality Unguyed met towers Indirect habitat loss and cumulative Impacts of most concern WEST, Inc.

53 Priority Research Needs Better synthesis of existing information Fatalities and habitat-related impacts in unstudied and new locations and unstudied species are needed Raptor nest impacts, sensitive species impact understanding (e.g., ferruginous hawk) Cumulative impacts Models for prediction of impacts and risk Determine mitigation effectiveness

54 Questions?