Southern African Bird Atlas Project 2 Visual progress: annually from 2007 to 2013, plus September 2014

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1 SABAP2 Southern African Bird Atlas Project 2 Visual progress: annually from 2007 to 2013, plus September 2014 Les Underhill and Michael Brooks Animal Demography Unit Department of Biological Sciences University of Cape Town

2 SABAP2 is a partnership between the Animal Demography Unit at the University of Cape Town, the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) and BirdLife South Africa

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12 Data volumes are up on last year On 17 September, we were 260 days into 2014 We have maintained an average of 50.7 checklists per day so far this year (last year we averaged 47.2) SABAP2014 has 571 observers (537 this time last year for SABAP2013) 4161 pentads visited so far this year (3885 last year) With effort, 2014 could be SABAP2 s best data year Antony Paton BirdPix 7798

13 Overall coverage in the original SABAP2 region Province/ country Coverage 17 Sept 2014 Pentads visited Pentads in region Coverage end of 2013 Gauteng 100% % KwaZulu- Natal 99.3% % Mpumalanga 98.7% % Free State 90.1% % Western Cape 86.2% % Limpopo 86.0% % North West 76.8% % Swaziland 72.5% % Eastern Cape 63.4% % Northern Cape 37.4% % Lesotho 24.0% % Total 68.8% %

14 Coverage in original SABAP2 region David Kennedy BirdPix 7785 True coverage in the South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland is 68.8%, up from 66.3% on 1 January 2014 Magnificent progress in Limpopo from 77.0% to 86.0%; well done especially to BirdLife Polokwane. Western Cape, you are about to be overtaken! Seven of the 11 regions are over 75% coverage Northern Cape (37.4% coverage, 3157 pentads to be visited) is top priority Eastern Cape (63.4% coverage, 825 pentads remain) is next priority Lesotho (26.0%, 308 pentads remain) where coverage is static, needs a champion 11 pentads remain in KwaZulu-Natal and 16 in Mpumalanga these last pentads are proving tough challenges

15 Pentads with proper foundations: 4 checklists Province/ country 4-coverage 17 Sept visit Pentads Pentads in region Gauteng 100% KwaZulu- Natal 55.8% Mpumalanga 60.0% Free State 26.0% Western Cape 48.2% Limpopo 28.7% North West 22.0% Swaziland 16.1% Eastern Cape 21.1% Northern Cape 6.3% Lesotho 4.3% Total 26.6% Once a pentad has four checklists, we can START making reporting rates for species in the pentad! That is a great foundation! A little more than a quarter of pentads have four or more checklists Special focus needed on Free State. Many pentads have 1, 2 or 3 checklists

16 Priorities for 2014, as set at start of the year Gaps 1, 2 and 3, and the southern part of Gap 12 have largely been filled

17 Revised priorities for 2014, reset onethird of the way through the year R2 R1 Green O2 O3 O1 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7

18 R2 Green R1 O2 O3 R3 R4 R5 O1 R7 R6 Robert Tibbit-Eggleton BirdPix 7753 Seven RED priorities: R1 Western end of North West; R2 Askham to Union s End; R3 is the N14 axis from about Kuruman to the coast; R4 southern part of the Northern Cape, R5 Greater Prieska district; R6 is the interior of the Eastern Cape, including the former Transkei; R7 Lesotho

19 R2 Green R1 O2 O3 R3 R5 O1 R7 R4 R6 David Kennedy BirdPix 7739 Three ORANGE priorities with mopping up operations needed: northern Limpopo, central Free State and western Swaziland. And one big GREEN priority. Please aim to deepen coverage across the northern provinces. Let us GREEN the coverage map! Please aim for a minimum of four checklists per pentad!

20 Revised priorities for 2014, reset onethird of the way through the year R2 R1 Green O2 O3 O1 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7

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23 Some key publications Altwegg R, Broms KM, Erni B, Barnard P, Midgley GF, Underhill LG Novel methods reveal shifts in migration phenology of Barn Swallows in South Africa. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 279: Bussiere E, Underhill LG, Altwegg R submitted. Patterns of bird migration phenology in South Africa suggest northern hemisphere climate as the most consistent driver of change. Global Change Biology. Hofmeyr SD, Symes CT, Underhill LG Secretarybird Sagittarius serpentarius population trends and ecology: Insights from South African citizen science data. PLoS ONE 9(5): e96772 Bled F, Nichols JD, Altwegg R Dynamic occupancy models for analyzing species' range dynamics across large geographic scales. Ecology and Evolution 3: Broms KM, Johnson DS, Altwegg R, Conquest LL Spatial occupancy models applied to atlas data show Southern Ground Hornbills strongly depend on protected areas. Ecological Applications 24: Broms KM Using presence-absence data on a lattice to model the ranges and movements of select South African bird species. PhD thesis, University of Washington Loftie-Eaton M Geographic range dynamics of South Africa s bird species. MSc thesis, University of Cape Town. (pdf on ADU website and papers in preparation) Underhill LG, Brooks M Preliminary summary of changes in bird distributions between the first and second Southern African Bird Atlas Projects (SABAP1 and SABAP2). Ornithological Observations 5: Carter J, de Swardt DH (2), McKenzie D, Retief EF. Five papers comparing SABAP1 vs SABAP2 for single quarter degree grid cells in Ornithological Observations.