Population and Water in Texas

Transcription

1 Population and Water in Texas Texas Municipal League Houston, Texas October 4,

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3 Important LUCA dates Registration packets mailed to highest elected officials in July 2017 Deadline to return register with the Census Bureau is December 15, Review period runs for 3 months; begins February More details about the LUCA can be found here: 3

4 Growing States, Population (millions) 2010 Population (millions) 2016 Population (millions) Numeric Change (millions) Percent Change United States % Texas % California % Florida % Georgia % North Carolina % % Arizona % Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Count, 2016 Population Estimates.

5 Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2016 El Paso ,000 10,001-50,000 50, , , , ,001-4,589,928 Hudspeth Dallam Hartley Oldham Sherman Ochiltree Hansford Lipscomb Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Potter Carson Gray Wheeler Randall Collingsworth Deaf Smith Armstrong Donley Parmer Swisher Hall Childress Castro Briscoe Hardeman Lamb Bailey Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Wilbarger Foard Wichita Montague Cochran Lubbock Dickens Grayson Lamar Red Hockley Crosby King Knox Baylor Archer Clay Cooke Fannin River Franklin Bowie Yoakum Kent Throckmorton Delta Terry Lynn Garza Haskell Young Jack Wise Denton Collin Hunt Titus Stonewall Hopkins Morris Cass Borden Stephens Palo Rockwall Rains Camp Gaines Dawson Scurry Fisher Jones Parker Tarrant Pinto Dallas Wood Upshur Marion Shackelford Kaufman Van Harrison Hood Taylor Johnson Zandt Smith Andrews Martin Mitchell Nolan Eastland Ellis Gregg Erath Howard Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Ector Midland Sterling Coke Runnels Comanche Navarro Cherokee Panola Loving Bosque Winkler Anderson Shelby Glasscock Coleman Brown Hamilton McLennan Freestone Ward Nacogdoches Upton Culberson Crane Tom Concho Mills Irion Coryell Green Leon Houston San Augustine Reeves Falls Reagan San Lampasas Angelina Sabine Saba Trinity Schleicher Jasper Pecos Menard Crockett Madison Polk Jeff Davis Walker Tyler Newton Sutton Kimble Grimes San Jacinto Montgomery Hardin Terrell Orange Presidio Edwards Val Verde Waller Liberty Brewster Real Harris Chambers Jefferson Kinney Uvalde Fort Bend Galveston Brazoria Maverick Zavala Matagorda Goliad La Dimmit Live Salle Bee Calhoun Oak Refugio McMullen Jim San Aransas Wells Patricio Webb Duval Nueces Zapata Jim Hogg Kleberg Brooks Kenedy Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron

6 Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to , ,000 El Paso 1,001-20,000 Hudspeth 20, , , ,469 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates Dallam Sherman OchiltreeLipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler Deaf Smith Randall DonleyCollingsworth Armstrong Parmer Castro Briscoe HallChildress Swisher Hardeman Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Wilbarger Motley Cottle Foard Wichita Clay Lamar Crosby King Knox Baylor Archer CookeGraysonFannin Red River CochranHockley Dickens Montague Bowie Lubbock Delta Kent Jack Titus Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Haskell Young Wise Denton Collin Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Stonewall Throckmorton Franklin Rockwall Rains Gaines Scurry Fisher Jones Parker Tarrant Dallas Wood Marion Upshur DawsonBorden Stephens Shackelford Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt GreggHarrison Hood Smith Andrews Martin Eastland Johnson Mitchell Ellis Nolan Taylor Erath Panola Howard Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Navarro Loving Glasscock Ector Comanche Winkler Midland Coke Bosque Shelby Sterling AndersonCherokee RunnelsColemanBrown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Ward Mills McLennanLimestone Crane San AugustineSabine Reeves Upton Reagan Tom Green Coryell Irion Leon Houston Angelina Concho Falls Lampasas Trinity Madison Schleicher Polk Tyler Jeff Davis Pecos Menard Walker Jasper Newton Crockett Grimes San Jacinto Sutton Kimble Hardin Montgomery Terrell Orange Presidio Liberty Edwards Waller Jefferson Val Verde Harris Brewster Real Chambers Fort Bend Kinney Uvalde Galveston Brazoria Zavala Matagorda Maverick Goliad Dimmit McMullen Bee Calhoun La Salle Live Oak Refugio Webb San Patricio Aransas Jim Wells Duval Nueces Zapata Brooks Jim Hogg Kenedy Starr Kleberg Willacy Hidalgo Cameron 96 counties lost population over the 6 year period. 6

7 Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2016 Dallam Sherman OchiltreeLipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler -4.8% - 0% 0.1% - 2.5% 2.6% - 5% 5.1% - 10% 10.1% % Parmer Castro Briscoe HallChildress Swisher Hardeman Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Wilbarger Motley Cottle Foard Wichita Clay Lamar Crosby King Knox Baylor Archer CookeGraysonFannin Red River CochranHockley Dickens Montague Bowie Lubbock Delta Jack Titus Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Young Wise Denton Collin Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Stonewall Throckmorton Franklin Rockwall Rains Gaines Scurry Fisher Jones Parker Tarrant Dallas Wood Marion Upshur DawsonBorden Stephens Shackelford Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt GreggHarrison El Paso Hood Smith Andrews Martin Eastland Johnson Mitchell Ellis Nolan Taylor Erath Panola Howard Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Navarro Loving Glasscock Ector Comanche Winkler Midland Coke Bosque Shelby Sterling AndersonCherokee RunnelsColemanBrown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Hudspeth Culberson Ward Mills McLennanLimestone Crane San AugustineSabine Reeves Upton Reagan Tom Green Coryell Irion Leon Houston Angelina Concho Falls Lampasas Trinity Madison Schleicher Polk Tyler Jeff Davis Pecos Menard Walker Jasper Newton Crockett Grimes San Jacinto Sutton Kimble Hardin Montgomery Terrell Orange Presidio Liberty Edwards Waller Jefferson Val Verde Harris Brewster Real Chambers Fort Bend Kinney Uvalde Galveston Brazoria Zavala Matagorda Maverick Goliad Dimmit McMullen Bee Calhoun La Salle Live Oak Refugio San Patricio Aransas Webb Jim Wells Duval Nueces Kleberg Zapata Brooks Jim Hogg Kenedy Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates Deaf Smith Randall DonleyCollingsworth Armstrong Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron 7

8 Major Texas Aquifers

9 Drought Conditions in Texas November 1,

10 Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, County U.S. Rank Population Change Population Change Percent of Change from Natural Increase Percent Change from Domestic Migration Percent Change from International Migration Harris 2 56, % 27.9% 48.1% Tarrant 5 35, % 37.7% 17.9% 7 33, % 39.3% 16.1% Dallas 9 29, % 20.9% 41.0% Denton 11 27, % 67.1% 9.0% Fort Bend 13 27, % 59.4% 15.8% Collin 14 26, % 58.7% 15.5% 17 24, % 33.3% 22.5% 22 20, % 74.1% 5.6% Montgomery 24 19, % 73.5% 8.0% Hidalgo* 54 10, % 33.4% 19.9% Hidalgo County had negative net migration ( 13.5% of total population growth). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

11 Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, County U.S. Rank Percent Population Change Percent Change from Domestic Migration Percent Change from International Migration 2 5.2% 95.9% 4.0% 3 5.1% 82.2% 1.8% 6 4.4% 88.5% 2.0% % 74.1% 5.6% Fort Bend % 59.4% 15.8% Montgomery % 73.5% 8.0% Rockwall % 82.2% 2.5% Denton % 67.1% 9.0% Kaufman % 81.3% 2.2% % 83.5% 0.7% Ellis % 78.1% 2.6% *Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

12 Density by Census Tract, San Antonio Area, Runnels Navarro Bosque Brown Coleman 1980 Comanche Anderson Runnels Freestone Hamilton 1990 Navarro Bosque Brown Coleman Limestone McLennan Comanche Hamilton Concho Leon Falls Harris Real Real Waller Real Fort Bend Uvalde Matagorda 2000 Persons per Square Mile Navarro Hamilton Limestone Navarro Anderson Freestone Hamilton Limestone McLennan Coryell Concho Leon Falls Lampasas Leon Falls Lampasas Madison Walker Madison Menard Walker Grimes Grimes Kimble Kimble Edwards Harris Real Waller Real Fort Bend Uvalde Fort Bend Harris Edwards Waller Zavala Uvalde Mills Bosque Brown Coryell 4,001 56,000 Zavala 2010 Mills ,000 Matagorda Comanche Coleman Menard Runnels Concho Anderson Freestone McLennan 0 10 Uvalde Bosque Brown Coleman Zavala Comanche Runnels Fort Bend Fort Bend Waller Harris Edwards Waller Harris Grimes Kimble Edwards Grimes Kimble Edwards Grimes Kimble Walker Madison Menard Walker Madison Menard Walker Lampasas Leon Falls Lampasas Madison Anderson Freestone Coryell Navarro Limestone McLennan Concho Menard Hamilton Coryell Leon Falls Lampasas Zavala Coleman Mills Coryell Bosque Brown Mills Concho Uvalde Runnels Limestone McLennan Mills Comanche Anderson Freestone Matagorda Zavala Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses. Geolytics, Neighborhood Change Database Tract Data from Matagorda Matagorda

13 Population for San Antonio/ area by Census Tract, Goliad Goliad ,000 1,001-5,000 7,501-10,000 10,001-34,000 5,001-7,500 Goliad 2000 Goliad Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses. Geolytics, Neighborhood Change Database Tract Data from Goliad 13

14 Percent of Housing Units Built by Period, Census Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, Before and Later 0% - 25% 25.1% - 45% 45.1% - 65% 65.1% - 80% 80.1% - 100% 14

15 Projected Population Growth in Texas, Millions Zero Migration 0.5 of Migration Migration Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections 15

16 Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, Zero Migration 0.5 of Migration Migration Estimates Millions Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates 16

17 Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, , ,000 2,001-10,000 10, , ,001-1,000,000 1,000,001-3,480,000 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario

18 Projected Percent Change in Population El Paso Dallam Hansford Ochiltree Sherman Lipscomb Hutchinson Hemphill Hartley Moore Roberts Oldham Carson Wheeler Potter Gray Deaf Armstrong Collingsworth Smith Randall Donley Parmer Briscoe Hall Childress Castro Swisher Hardeman Floyd Bailey Hale Motley Wilbarger Lamb Foard Wichita Montague Cochran Lubbock Cottle Grayson Dickens King Clay Lamar Red Hockley Knox Baylor Cooke Crosby Archer Fannin River Franklin Bowie Yoakum Terry HaskellThrockmorton Jack Wise Delta Lynn Garza Stonewall Young Denton Collin Hunt Hopkins Titus Kent Morris Cass Dawson Scurry Shackelford Tarrant Rockwall Rains Palo Gaines Parker Borden Fisher Jones Dallas Wood Marion Stephens Pinto Van Howard Hood Kaufman Upshur Harrison Zandt Andrews Martin Mitchell Nolan Taylor Eastland Johnson Ellis Smith Gregg Erath Glasscock Runnels Callahan Somervell Henderson Panola Rusk Ector Winkler Midland Comanche Navarro Loving Sterling Coke Bosque Cherokee Shelby Coleman Anderson Hamilton Culberson Freestone Nacogdoches Ward Tom Brown McLennan Hudspeth Mills Coryell Upton Leon San Augustine Reeves Crane Irion Concho Green Falls Houston San Sabine Reagan Lampasas Trinity Angelina Schleicher Menard Saba Madison Newton Pecos Crockett Walker Tyler Jeff Davis San Polk Jasper Sutton Kimble Grimes Jacinto Montgomery Hardin Terrell Liberty Orange Presidio Edwards Brewster Val Verde Real Waller Harris Jefferson Chambers Uvalde Fort Bend Kinney Galveston Brazoria Maverick Zavala Matagorda Dimmit McMullen Goliad Calhoun La Live Bee Salle Refugio Oak Jim Wells Aransas Webb Duval Nueces Kleberg -51.2% - 0% 0.1% - 25% 25.1% - 50% 50.1% - 75% 75.1% - 425% Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Scenario Jim Brooks Zapata Hogg Kenedy Starr Hidalgo Willacy Cameron 18

19 Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. State Demographer Office: (210) Internet: 19