How to assess and manage sustainable innovations in the growing CE paradigm?

Transcription

1 Developing a sustainable circular economy strategy for electric mobility, Assessing the role of Li-ion battery technology Rafael Popper, Mika Naumanen & Monika Popper How to assess and manage sustainable innovations in the growing CE paradigm? We are engaged in a systematic mapping of new (innovation) design needs emerging from circular economy shapers (i.e. critical issues such as drivers, barriers, opportunities and threats) that are likely to influence the next generation of the manufacturing and data services business. CloseLoop CE frameworks CASI F (Popper et al, 2017) Popper, R., Velasco, G. and Popper, M. (2017) CASI F: Common Framework for the Assessment and Management of Sustainable Innovation, CASI project report. Deliverable

2 On the assessment of critical issues shaping SI Future-oriented assessment and management of sustainable innovations: CASI-F A methodological framework for assessing sustainable innovation and managing multi-disciplinary solutions through public engagement in the research, technology development and innovation (RTDI) system, by ensuring the commitment of a broad spectrum of societal stakeholders into its implementation, including: government business civil society organisations and the general public research organisations and academia 2

3 CASI-F protocols for SI assessment and management Step 1: Assessment 1.0 Step 2: Assessment 2.0 Step 3: Assessment 3.0 Step 4: Management 1.0 Step 5: Management 2.0 Step 3: Assessment 3.0 (critical issue analysis & assessment) Protocol 3: Critical Issue analysis & assessment TEEPSES approach Drivers Barriers Opportunities Tec Eco Env Pol Soc Eth Spa expertise creativity Multiple knowledge sources interaction What to do? Analysis of shapers and Critical Issues (CI) 1. Creativity-based Using scenarios, brainstorming, surveys, etc. 2. Interaction-based Using workshops, citizen panels, conferences, etc. 3. Evidence-based Using modelling, literature review, extrapolation, etc. 4. Expertise-based Using expert panel, interviews, critical technologies, etc. Threats Criteria for sense making and criticality assessment should be defined with the innovator (e.g. Importance vs. Urgency) evidence Critical Issues Assessment of shapers and Critical Issues (CI) 1. Define two or more criteria for criticality assessment E.g. Importance, Uncertainty, Urgency, etc. 2. Rate TEEPSES issues against selected criteria Using a Likert-like scale of 1 to 5 or 1 to 7 3. Plot TEEPSES issues against a criticality chart Selecting critical issues for management 3

4 We have examined where the research in energy storage devices takes place and whether the results are published as patents or as research papers. In the figure, we can see that there are around 80 publications with the term Lithium Sulphur battery. Its newness index is 100, meaning that all publications have been published after the year The colour of the bubble is deep green, meaning that there are more articles than patents among the publications and most of them are published by European authors blue would indicate American and red Chinese authorship. (A deep border colour would indicate more patent than research paper publications. Lithium battery technologies We have examined where the research in energy storage devices takes place and whether the results are published as patents or as research papers. Carbon based technologies for energy storage For example, most of the publications covering carbon and lithium are patents and filed in China. However, the research papers in this theme are published mainly by European researchers.) The size of the bubble indicates the average quality of the academic journals and the number of citations the patent have received. Of course, new patent applications have not yet had time to get any citations, which distorts the indicator somewhat. 4

5 Critical issue analysis and assessment Analysing selected innovations, policies and aspirations so as to identify and prioritise critical issues, such as Barrier any kind of existing limitation or obstacle of a given sustainable innovation initiative Driver any kind of existing force, trend or enabler that fosters an innovation initiative Opportunity any kind of future possibility for a given innovation initiative to achieve something desirable Threat any kind of future possibility for a given innovation initiative to affected by something undesirable Threats Drivers Opportunities Barriers Typology of future shapers of secondary circle of the materials flow Tec Eco Env Pol Soc Eth Spa Drivers Barriers Opportunities Threats 5

6 Typology of future shapers of secondary circle of the materials flow Tec Eco Env Pol Soc Eth Spa Drivers Barriers Opportunities Threats Critical Issue Type 1: Drivers This refers to any kind of existing force, trend or enabler whether spatial that fosters a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES drivers Technology development path & technical interest/ capabilities Lithium ion batteries represent the state of the art in small rechargeable batteries with relatively high voltages, energy densities and long cycle lives. Lithium ion batteries normally consist of a negative electrode (anode, e.g. graphite), a positive electrode (cathode, e.g. LiCoO2), a lithium ion conducting electrolyte and certain membranes. Nanometre sized electrode materials increase electrical activity through lithium insertion and enhance the high rate capability. Nanotechnology helps to improve the battery s capacity, energy density, power density, cycle life and safety. It allows for high charge/discharge rates and reduces the specific current density of active materials. It reduces the volumetric changes and lattice stresses. For anodes, nanostructured (nanowires, nanorods, nanotubes and 3D porous particles) as well as nanocomposite materials (e.g. Si or Sn based nanomaterials dispersed in a carbon based matrix) exist or are being investigated. For cathodes, nanostructures are investigated often as transition metal oxides or polyanion based compounds. Nanostructured cathode electrodes offer improved energy storage capacity and charge/discharge kinetics, better cyclic stabilities because of their huge surface area for Faradaic reaction, short distances for mass and charge diffusion, added freedom for volume change accompanied by lithium intercalation and discharge. 6

7 Critical Issue Type 1: Drivers This refers to any kind of existing force, trend or enabler whether spatial that fosters a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES drivers Technology development path & technical interest/ capabilities benefits Cost reduction Local development & employment Selfemployment Successful recycling plants often run on high volumes to offset high initial investment costs. Scale matters in the reverse loop, improving the marginal cost position for collection and remanufacturing operations and fetching better prices for sales of larger quantities. The small amounts of REE in recycled waste will most likely have to be processed either in existing facilities, or in new centralized plants where regional input can ensure the necessary economy of scale. Critical Issue Type 1: Drivers This refers to any kind of existing force, trend or enabler whether spatial that fosters a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES drivers Technology development path & technical interest/ capabilities benefits Cost reduction Local development & employment Selfemployment Environmental Climate change Environment fragility Energy sustainability The environmental benefits from appropriate battery recycling depend on the metals contained and processes used. The environmental benefits from appropriate battery recycling go beyond the prevention of hazardous material emissions to reducing primary metal production. The recycling of batteries that only contain abundant metals (Fe, Mn, etc.) could actually be more damaging than making the batteries from primary metal. In these cases, a critical evaluation from a life cycle perspective is essential for determining if other disposal methods are more favourable than recycling. 7

8 Critical Issue Type 1: Drivers This refers to any kind of existing force, trend or enabler whether spatial that fosters a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES drivers Technology development path & technical interest/ capabilities benefits Cost reduction Local development & employment Selfemployment Environmental Climate change Environment fragility Energy sustainability Political Alignment with policy agenda Eco-friendly regulations Sustainable procurement Producer responsibility laws work best as a combination of policy and profit. Producer responsibility laws motivate a product manufacturer to innovate in recycling process technology for meeting recycling targets. Such incentives can be purely legislative or purely economic, but work best as a combination of policy and profit. Critical Issue Type 1: Drivers This refers to any kind of existing force, trend or enabler whether spatial that fosters a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES drivers Technology development path & technical interest/ capabilities benefits Cost reduction Local development & employment Selfemployment Environmental Climate change Environment fragility Energy sustainability Political Alignment with policy agenda Eco-friendly regulations Sustainable procurement Social Poverty Social inclusion Human health Welfare and security Ethical Responsible research and innovation Postmaterialistic values Spatial Demographic / spatial pressures 8

9 Critical Issue Type 2: Barriers This refers to any kind of existing limitation or obstacle whether spatial that hinders a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES barriers Undeveloped infrastructures Technical complexity and standards compliance Dependency of other technologies IP rights costs Current pre processing technology is inappropriate for increasingly miniaturized technology or complex products. A recycling system needs suitable dismantling, cutting, sorting and whole product smelting technologies. As product change is much faster than the change in processing equipment, processing must use flexible technology. Critical Issue Type 2: Barriers This refers to any kind of existing limitation or obstacle whether spatial that hinders a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES barriers Undeveloped infrastructures Technical complexity and standards compliance Dependency of other technologies IP rights costs High initial investment Resources scarcity Circular resource use challenges current business practices in a company. To an organisation focused on linear production, remanufacturing can often be dismissed as risky due to concerns about brand damage or sales cannibalisation. Companies are rarely aware of the profit margins available and their ability to reach new customer segments without harming (sometimes enhancing) their brands through remanufacturing. 9

10 Critical Issue Type 2: Barriers This refers to any kind of existing limitation or obstacle whether spatial that hinders a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES barriers Undeveloped infrastructures Technical complexity and standards compliance Dependency of other technologies IP rights costs High initial investment Resources scarcity Environmental Complexity of environmental impact assessment Political Inadequate regulation Bureaucracy Political inertia & resistance to changes Approval for new materials by regulators can take a significant amount of resources (time and costs) in market deployment. EU regulation on substances and manufacturing, sometimes combined with heavy bureaucratic processes for new materials approval, may restrain the industry in engaging activities in areas affected by these. For instance, as REACH does not regulate the import of finished products containing certain raw materials (considered as harmful), some manufacturing companies have started to move their production centers towards other countries with less restrictive regulation. Critical Issue Type 2: Barriers This refers to any kind of existing limitation or obstacle whether spatial that hinders a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES barriers Undeveloped infrastructures Technical complexity and standards compliance Dependency of other technologies IP rights costs High initial investment Resources scarcity Environmental Complexity of environmental impact assessment Political Inadequate regulation Bureaucracy Political inertia & resistance to changes Social Coordination of multiple actors & interests Users scepticism by lack of understanding Social resistance to change Manufacturers may not choose to use recycled metals with impurities. Where recycling produces metal with impurities, this might fail to find markets, even when it has the physical or chemical properties needed for use in specific products. Manufacturers may not choose to use such recycled metals, either because they do not know the precise mix of elements and compounds on offer, or because they are unsure of the quality or consistency of the recycled metal on offer. 10

11 Critical Issue Type 2: Barriers This refers to any kind of existing limitation or obstacle whether spatial that hinders a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES barriers Undeveloped infrastructures Technical complexity and standards compliance Dependency of other technologies IP rights costs High initial investment Resources scarcity Environmental Complexity of environmental impact assessment Political Inadequate regulation Bureaucracy Political inertia & resistance to changes Social Coordination of multiple actors & interests Users scepticism by lack of understanding Social resistance to change Ethical Religious or values related reluctance to change Spatial Historic & heritage restrictions Critical Issue Type 3: Opportunities This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to achieve something desirable, such as a technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial goal. Examples of TEEPSES opportunities Technical capabilities and technological vision Digitalisation and IT agenda Curiosity and creativity User friendliness Post LIB (Li S): >1000 cycles, high energy density, improved safety. Around 2025, these batteries might be further improved and achieve higher cycles, energy densities and improved safety. For use in electric vehicles further time would be needed for Li S development, and they may appear in EVs beyond

12 Critical Issue Type 3: Opportunities This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to achieve something desirable, such as a technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial goal. Examples of TEEPSES opportunities Technical capabilities and technological vision Digitalisation and IT agenda Curiosity and creativity User friendliness Financial stability and support Market needs and gaps Real time big data approaches are evolving and can be used to calibrate metallurgical, recycling, and CE system models. These create a basis to optimize the processing chain while providing the necessary detail to calculate capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operational expenditure (OPEX) in addition to the environmental footprint.[11] The innovation is that the simulation basis provides the true economic potential of the CE as it rigorously maps all recoveries, losses, and costs incurred due to the recovery and losses. Critical Issue Type 3: Opportunities This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to achieve something desirable, such as a technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial goal. Examples of TEEPSES opportunities Technical capabilities and technological vision Digitalisation and IT agenda Curiosity and creativity User friendliness Financial stability and support Market needs and gaps Environmental Waste upcycling alternatives Adjusts design specifications to allow closed loop or functional recycling. This makes it possible for Renault to turn end of life vehicles into high grade materials appropriate for new cars and avoid down cycling. 12

13 Critical Issue Type 3: Opportunities This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to achieve something desirable, such as a technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial goal. Examples of TEEPSES opportunities Technical capabilities and technological vision Digitalisation and IT agenda Curiosity and creativity User friendliness Financial stability and support Market needs and gaps Environmental Waste upcycling alternatives Political Favourable regulation changes Political support Policy makers create the conditions that facilitate and motivate the cooperation and communication between the product manufacturer and the recycling operator. Policy makers will have to take into account the economics of the system, the motivations of designers, innovators and collectors, forging a set of policies that deliver the above mentioned conditions. Policy needs to create the conditions that facilitate and motivate this cooperation and communication. Policy can remove the bottlenecks in a successful recycling system, such as a lack of capability in collection or in recycling. Critical Issue Type 3: Opportunities This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to achieve something desirable, such as a technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial goal. Examples of TEEPSES opportunities Technical capabilities and technological vision Digitalisation and IT agenda Curiosity and creativity User friendliness Financial stability and support Market needs and gaps Environmental Waste upcycling alternatives Political Favourable regulation changes Political support Social Enthusiasm and motivation Knowledge transferring mechanisms Public participation Ethical Society values aligned with sustainability Spatial Rural spaces/ traditions attractiveness 13

14 Critical Issue Type 4: Threats This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to affected by something undesirable, such as a spatial risk. Examples of TEEPSES threats Breakdowns and maintenance issues Risk of imitation Nanometre sized particles tend to form agglomerates that are difficult to disperse, mix and bind to produce (densely packed) electrodes. Agglomeration during cycling leads to quick capacity fading and thus low thermodynamic stability; a risk exists of secondary reactions causing a high level of irreversibility (low columbic efficiency) and poor cycle life, and also producing safety problems. Critical Issue Type 4: Threats This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to affected by something undesirable, such as a spatial risk. Examples of TEEPSES threats Breakdowns and maintenance issues Risk of imitation Lack of adequate business model Incapacity to meet demand Economies of scale limitations Conformism: poor R&I activity Supply uncertainties and price volatilities of CRM. Modern technologies (e.g. wind turbines, mobile phones, electric cars, solar panels, LEDs, etc) often rely on the so called Critical Raw Materials (CRMs).[4] Most of CRMs (90%[5]) are sourced from countries outside of Europe, in particular from areas of geopolitical instability, resulting in supply uncertainties and price volatilities. 14

15 Critical Issue Type 4: Threats This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to affected by something undesirable, such as a spatial risk. Examples of TEEPSES threats Breakdowns and maintenance issues Risk of imitation Lack of adequate business model Incapacity to meet demand Economies of scale limitations Conformism: poor R&I activity Environmental Ecological collateral effects Have product design to combine metals and materials originating from the primary and secondary sources into a complex multimaterial functionality. Undesired material combinations and contaminations diminish economic value (if exceeding permitted concentrations, alloy specifications, etc.) and hence recyclability, as these could potentially dissolve in metals, appear in flue dusts, and report to slag, slimes, residues, sludges, etc. Product complexity creates complex residue streams or undesired possibly harmful emissions that may not be recoverable in the current system and process metallurgical infrastructure. Critical Issue Type 4: Threats This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to affected by something undesirable, such as a spatial risk. Examples of TEEPSES threats Breakdowns and maintenance issues Risk of imitation Lack of adequate business model Incapacity to meet demand Economies of scale limitations Conformism: poor R&I activity Environmental Ecological collateral effects Political Government priorities change Collision with vested interests Risking oversimplification of the benefits of a CE. The CE discussion is often rather general and neglects the detailed discussion of true losses from the system due to complexity. The losses, not clearly shown and discussed by the MacArthur Foundation, will all have to be managed well within technoeconomic boundaries to maximize the RE of a CE for society. 15

16 Critical Issue Type 4: Threats This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to affected by something undesirable, such as a spatial risk. Examples of TEEPSES threats Breakdowns and maintenance issues Risk of imitation Lack of adequate business model Incapacity to meet demand Economies of scale limitations Conformism: poor R&I activity Environmental Ecological collateral effects Political Government priorities change Collision with vested interests Social Dependency of volunteering Sustainability of beneficiaries' awareness Inefficient social impact assessment Ethical Users' exclusion Questioning corporative SI rationales Spatial Unfavourable location for business continuity/exper imentation CASI-F in action 16

17 CASI-F in action (Steps 1 to 3) The amount (500+) and variety of critical issues (i.e. barriers, drivers, opportunities and threats) identified and prioritised in the assessment of 400+ SI called for a multi-level and multi-actor SI management approach. Such a approach should be implemented by multiple actors with different managerial roles and responsibilities. Example of steps 1 to 3 of CASI-F applied to a product innovation Step 1: Sustainability relevance & scanning + Step 2: Multi-criteria analysis & assessment Step 3: Critical issue analysis & assessment Application-driven battery development and recycling Application-driven batteries: Develop different types of batteries for certain applications, such as high-energy lithium ion batteries for modern communication devices, high-power lithium ion batteries for HEVs, EVs, and power tools, or longcycle-life lithium-ion batteries for UPS and SSBs. Physics-based-modelling and simulation: Quantitative computer models, based on the physics and economics of recycling with BAT, can be used for resolving complexity and guiding policy, thus replacing simple material-flow analysis. Physics-based-modelling and simulation of how batteries recycle can help designing a product that facilitates recycling, based on how batteries and their constituents break up and separate in BAT recycling processes. Educating and changing the behaviour of individuals can lead to better recycling: Managing post-consumer waste faces different kinds of challenges compared to the management of office or factory waste. Consumer behaviour plays a big part in collection, for example, by separating waste into different streams, as long as they know the product differences. If, for instance, the consumer has no idea what is in different batteries and is not given clear guidance on the fact that there are different types, these can potentially all land in the same battery-recycling bin and create a metallurgical nightmare. Barriers Threats Drivers Opportunities 17

18 Managing physical and virtual recycling infrastructure Data comparability: The analysis and processing of data in order to produce comparable data in each country proved to be a slow process due to the many different methods used by the participating countries for acquiring and presenting the data. A great deal of conversions between parameters such as distance, weight, cost etc. Opportunity - Big data economics: Realtime big-data approaches are evolving and can be used to calibrate metallurgical, recycling, and CE system models that create a basis to optimize the processing chain while providing the necessary detail to calculate capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operational expenditure (OPEX) in addition to the environmental footprint. The simulation basis provides the true economic potential of the CE as it rigorously maps all recoveries, losses, and costs incurred due to the recovery and losses. Infrastructure system complexity: A robust metallurgical infrastructure and system must be in place to ensure maximum recovery of all critical materials from complex recyclates and dismantled functional sub-units of a product. Resource efficient recycling requires a robust high-tech interconnected metallurgical infrastructure as a crucial enabler of the EU2020 vision. Barriers Threats Drivers Opportunities CASI-F in action (Steps 4 to 5) The action roadmaps management approach addresses the context, people, process and impact dimensions and ten related key management aspects The multi-level and multi-actor SI management approach should be implemented by multiple actors with different managerial roles and responsibilities. Example of steps 4 to 5 of CASI-F applied to a product innovation Step 4: Multi-level advice management Step5: Action roadmaps management SI Management Increase staff innovation management skills and capabilities Action Top level management (strategic action) Initiate (carry out tasks never done in the Action Type past) Relevant Business actor (Innovator) actor MOMENTUM FORESIGHT RESOURCES MOBILISATION Identify and analyse Identify emerging Apply to Establish new database of existing management skills local/national funds contacts with local/ innovation and capacities in the for management regional business management sector, through skills development schools, and programmes in journals, Timeframe: researchers dealing international conferences Medium term with management CONTEXT business schools Timeframe: skills and dimension and attend Short term capabilities sub actions education fairs development Timeframe: (become a case Medium term study in schools) and incorporate action research in the company Timeframe: Medium term APTITUDE ATTITUDE Create an internal repository to facilitate Foster staff creativity with participatory PEOPLE knowledge transfer within the company, workshops, e.g. generate future actions dimension differentiating management skills from through highly transformed scenarios sub actions technical education Timeframe: Long term Timeframe: Short term CATALYSTS FOSTERERS PROCESS Involve key stakeholders in piloting and Establish incentive procedures to reward dimension experimenting with the firm s innovation staff professional development sub actions phases Timeframe: Medium term Timeframe: Short term TRANSFORMATIONS SUSTAINABILITY IMPACT Analyse staff potential and training Develop staff education plans for the dimension objectives in relation to local jobs and employers family so as to bring together sub actions competences professional and personal development Timeframe: Short term Timeframe: Long term 18

19 Management Key Aspects 10 Management Key Aspects clustered around the 4 Management Dimensions: Momentum Foresight Resources Mobilisation Aptitude Attitude Catalysts Fosterers Transformation Sustainability Management Dimensions CONTEXT dimension PEOPLE dimension PROCESS dimension IMPACT dimension Momentum Aptitude Catalysts Transformation Management Key Aspects Foresight Resources Mobilisation Attitude Fosterers Sustainability The way forward in the form of an Action Roadmap CONTEXT dimension PEOPLE dimension PROCESS dimension Create a procedure for economical efficiency evidencing by application examples. Timeframe: short term Improve the reliability of prediction of recyclate input streams with variables such as: 1) Product composition, 2) Monitoring of collected materials along the entire recycling chain, 3) Varying and changing product purchasing, affecting future waste streams, 4) Life time (usage) product distribution driven by consumer behaviour, 5) Disposal behaviour, 6) Collection schemes or informal collection activities. Timeframe: long term Enable consumers to make conscious product choices: Awareness needs to be created in order to generate criteria that in turn will enable consumers (end users or non end users) to make product choices consciously. Timeframe: medium term Build industrial pilot plant: pilot plant needed prior to scalable volume production. Timeframe: medium term Create capabilities for real time measurement of recyclates; this permits a detailed calculation of RE and thus the loss of materials, elements, alloys, etc. to streams of low economic value. Timeframe: medium term Lower the investment risk by aiming to joint publicprivate investments and financing mechanisms. Timeframe: medium term Create ways to support cooperation between the different stakeholders in the recycling chain; to improve the system, we need a set of incentives making it worthwhile for the stakeholders to cooperate. Timeframe: short term Publish best practices and experience: Methods should be unified and consolidated, best practices and experiences particularly from each of the different branches are to be systematically documented. Timeframe: short term IMPACT dimension Foster the development of new set of skills; the skills required for circular resource use include strategic thinking, engineering, marketing, logistics, process design, and change management. Timeframe: medium term Optimize the recycling chain by digitizing (ID tags, sensors, design tools) of all aspects of it. Timeframe: long term 19

20 Circular Economy (CE) Frameworks Identifying key technology areas: Incredient 1, Circular Economy's 10 disruptive technologies Source: Accenture (2014). Circular Advantage. Innovative Business Models and Technologies to Create Value in a World without Limits to Growth, 24 p. 20

21 Identifying key technology areas: Incredient 2, Lifecycle of metals and metal bearing products Source: Florin N., Madden B., Sharpe S., Benn S., Agarwal R., Perey R. and Giurco D. (2015) Shifting Business Models for a Circular Economy: Metals Management for Multi Product Use Cycles, UTS, Sydney on the basis of UNEP (2011) Recycling Rates of Metals A Status Report. A report of the Working Group on the Global Metal Flows to the International Resources Panel Authors: Graedel TE Allwood J Birat J P Reck BK Sibley SF Sonnemann G Buchert M Hagelüken C Identifying key technology areas: Incredient 3, The circular economy an industrial system that is restorative by design Source: The Ellen MacArthur Foundation. (2013) Towards the circular economy, economic and business rationale for an accelerated transition 21

22 Wealth from waste -model losses in consumption, collection, obsolete stock repair reuse and upscaling 3. Product use, infrastructure post consumer products/scrap 2. Product design and manufacturing pre consumer scrap 4. End-of-first-life losses in material and energy in production metals and alloys 1. Raw material production and energy use/ recovery from geological and anhtropogenic stock recyclates raw material input losses in collection, dismantling, physical separation limits and contamination Wealth from waste + Accenture losses in material and energy in production reuse and upscaling Machine to Machine (M2M) Communication 3D Printing 2. Product design and manufacturing Modular Design Technology metals and alloys repair Life and Material Sciences Technology Mobile 3. Product use, infrastructure Digital Big Data Analytics pre consumer scrap Hybrid Engineering User share Social Cloud Computing Trace and Return Systems Advanced Recycling 1. Raw material Technology production and energy use/ recovery recyclates from geological and anhtropogenic stock losses in consumption, collection, obsolete stock post consumer products/scrap 4. End-of-first-life raw material input losses in collection, dismantling, physical separation limits and contamination 22

23 Wealth from waste + Accenture + Ellen MacArthur Foundation Mobile 3. Product use, infrastructure User share Social Machine to Machine (M2M) Communication Big Data Analytics Cloud Computing 3D Printing 2. Product design and manufacturing Modular Design Technology Life and Material Sciences Technology Trace and Return Systems Advanced Recycling 1. Raw material Technology production and energy use/ recovery from geological and anhtropogenic stock 4. End-of-first-life Introduce Advanced recycling infrastructure Mobile 3. Product use, infrastructure User share Social Machine to Machine (M2M) Communication Big Data Analytics Cloud Computing 3D Printing 2. Product design and manufacturing Modular Design Technology Life and Material Sciences Technology Raw material processing 1. Raw material production and energy use/ recovery from geological and anhtropogenic stock Trace and Return Systems Advanced recycling infrastructure Recyclates preprocessing 4. End-of-first-life Recyclates collection 23

24 Introduce tools to aid CE decision making and material-centric CE approaches Mobile 3. Product use, infrastructure User share Social Material centric CE approaches Material substitution Reuse of engineered materials Machine to Machine (M2M) Communication 3D Printing 2. Product design and manufacturing Modular Design Technology Modelling and Tools to aid CE process decision making simulation Raw material processing Modelling of economic outcomes Big Data Analytics 1. Raw material production and energy use/ recovery from geological and anhtropogenic stock Cloud Computing Trace and Return Systems Advanced recycling infrastructure 4. End-of-first-life Recyclates collection Introduce optimization of recovery Material centric CE approaches Recyclates preprocessing Machine to Machine (M2M) Communication Material substitution 3D Printing 2. Product design and manufacturing Reuse of engineered materials Design for Resource Efficiency Modelling and process simulation Optimization of recovery Raw material processing Mobile 3. Product use, infrastructure Life Cycle Management Big Data Analytics Value networks Modelling of economic outcomes Tools to aid CE decision making 1. Raw material production and energy use/ recovery from geological and anhtropogenic stock User share Social Cloud Computing Advanced recycling infrastructure Recyclates preprocessing 4. End-of-first-life Recyclates collection 24

25 Introduce production-centric CE approaches Material centric CE approaches Reuse of engineered materials Remanufacturing 3D manufacturing Material substitution 2. Product design and manufacturing Productioncentric CE approaches Design for Resource Efficiency Modelling and process simulation Intelligent production Optimization of recovery Raw material processing Recyclates preprocessing Productservice systems Mobile 3. Product use, infrastructure Life Cycle Management Modelling of economic outcomes Tools to aid CE decision making Big Data Analytics Value networks 1. Raw material production and energy use/ recovery from geological and anhtropogenic stock User share Social Cloud Computing Advanced recycling infrastructure 4. End-of-first-life Recyclates collection Introduce cross-cutting platform technolgoies Material centric CE approaches Reuse of engineered materials Productservice Social media systems technologies 3. Product use, infrastructure Life Cycle Management Remanufacturing 3D manufacturing Material substitution 2. Product design and manufacturing Productioncentric CE approaches Design for Resource Efficiency Modelling and process simulation Intelligent production Optimization of recovery Raw material processing Recyclates preprocessing Modelling of economic outcomes Tools to aid CE decision making Data analysis Value networks Data management Safety and security 1. Raw material production and energy use/ recovery from geological and anhtropogenic stock User share ICT connectivety Platform technologies IoT semantic interoperability Advanced recycling infrastructure 4. End-of-first-life Recyclates collection 25

26 Technology areas, summary THEME TECHNOLOGY AREA POSSIBLE OTHER FORMULATIONS Recycling infrastructure Recyclates collection 4 1 Controlled disintegration and separation Recyclates pre processing Trace and return systems, Optimization of recovery Material centric CE approaches Raw material processing Reuse of engineered materials Material substitution Process control and monitoring Critical raw material (CRM) substitution Tools to aid CE decision making Modelling and process simulation Modelling of economic outcomes Optimization of recovery Design for Resource Efficiency (DfRE) -1-3 Design for Sustainability (DfS) Life Cycle Management New business models Value networks Partners for revalorisation Production Centric CE Approaches Intelligent production 3D manufacturing Remanufacturing Product service systems Business services Platform technologies Social media technologies Collaborative lifestyles platforms, Social ICT connectivety Mobile Data management Trace and return systems, RFID Safety and security Machine learning, AI Big data analytics, Data analysis IoT semantic interoperability Internet of everything Relevance for CE Business potential Importance of policy actions 1 = Highest ranked 1 = Lowest ranked Technology areas wrt domains Recyclates collection Recyclates pre processing Raw material processing Reuse of engineered materials Material substitution Modelling and process simulation Modelling of economic outcomes Design for Resource Efficiency (DfRE) Life Cycle Management New business models Value networks Intelligent production 3D manufacturing Remanufacturing Product service systems Social media technologies Material collection Material processing Product design Manufactu ring Industrial customers Private customers New products & services Product/ service markets 26

27 From horizon scanning to forward planning Step 1: Horizon scanning and analysis of future shapers Stock-taking - Continue collecting potential shapers Sense-making - Label technological shapers to key categories (e.g. energy) Online questionnaire about main developments (e.g. move to maturity, pace, competitive advantage, diffusion, applications, disruptive potential) Step 2: Generating multi-level need-driven actions to support decision-making Managing Critical Issues & Shapers Multi-level and Multi-Stakeholders Advice Step 3: Supporting multi-dimensional transitions management Forward-planning Actions Roadmaps Core Team Rafael Popper (PhD) is Principal Scientist in Foresight, Organizational Dynamics and Systemic Change at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, and Research Fellow at the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research of the University of Manchester. He is Director of Executive Education in Foresight and Horizon Scanning at the Alliance Manchester Business School, and Innovation Director and CEO of Futures Diamond Ltd (UK and Czech Republic). He has also worked at United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) and as consultant for the European Commission, World Bank and other international, governmental and business organisations in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Asia and Australia. Mika Naumanen (MSc Tech, MSc Econ) is a senior scientist in the Innovation and Knowledge Economy group of VTT. He has run VTT s business from technology program and managed a portfolio of business development projects in the fields of Industrial Systems Management, Services and Built Environment, ICT and Electronics. These activities include monitoring and forecasting technology development paths as well as developing indicators and providing analysis of how these projects meet the national research and innovation policy objectives. Naumanen is a visiting scholar in Statistics Finland also. Monika Popper (MSc) is COO and Senior Project Manager at Futures Diamond, a research and technology development company based in the UK and the Czech Republic. After completing her BSc (Honours) in Environmental Health she continued her postgraduate studies within the MSc on Healthcare Management programme of the Manchester Business School. She has experience in innovation assessment and management: mapping critical issues affecting the entrepreneurship environment and decisions of social and technological innovations in several EU countries and collaborating with innovators and other relevant stakeholders to create growth, competitiveness and the sustainability of the innovations. 11/17/

28 Acknowledgements This work has been supported by the Strategic Research Council at the Academy of Finland, project CloseLoop (grant number ) ( 11/17/