How to assess and manage sustainable innovations in the growing CE paradigm?

Transcription

1 Critical issue analysis and assessment of Li-ion battery technology solutions Rafael Popper & Mika Naumanen How to assess and manage sustainable innovations in the growing CE paradigm? We are engaged in a systematic mapping of new (innovation) design needs emerging from circular economy shapers (i.e. critical issues such as drivers, barriers, opportunities and threats) that are likely to influence the next generation of the manufacturing and data services business. CloseLoop CE frameworks CASI F (Popper et al, 2017) Popper, R., Velasco, G. and Popper, M. (2017) CASI F: Common Framework for the Assessment and Management of Sustainable Innovation, CASI project report. Deliverable

2 On the assessment of critical issues shaping SI Future-oriented assessment and management of sustainable innovations: CASI-F A methodological framework for assessing sustainable innovation and managing multi-disciplinary solutions through public engagement in the research, technology development and innovation (RTDI) system, by ensuring the commitment of a broad spectrum of societal stakeholders into its implementation, including: government business civil society organisations and the general public research organisations and academia 2

3 Assessment (critical issue analysis & assessment) Critical Issue analysis & assessment TEEPSES approach Drivers Barriers Opportunities Tec Eco Env Pol Soc Eth Spa expertise creativity Multiple knowledge sources interaction What to do? Analysis of shapers and Critical Issues (CI) 1. Creativity-based Using scenarios, brainstorming, surveys, etc. 2. Interaction-based Using workshops, citizen panels, conferences, etc. 3. Evidence-based Using modelling, literature review, extrapolation, etc. 4. Expertise-based Using expert panel, interviews, critical technologies, etc. Threats Criteria for sense making and criticality assessment should be defined with the innovator (e.g. Importance vs. Urgency) evidence Critical Issues Assessment of shapers and Critical Issues (CI) 1. Define two or more criteria for criticality assessment E.g. Importance, Uncertainty, Urgency, etc. 2. Rate TEEPSES issues against selected criteria Using a Likert-like scale of 1 to 5 or 1 to 7 3. Plot TEEPSES issues against a criticality chart Selecting critical issues for management We have examined where the research in energy storage devices takes place and whether the results are published as patents or as research papers. In the figure, we can see that there are around 80 publications with the term Lithium Sulphur battery. Its newness index is 100, meaning that all publications have been published after the year The colour of the bubble is deep green, meaning that there are more articles than patents among the publications and most of them are published by European authors blue would indicate American and red Chinese authorship. (A deep border colour would indicate more patent than research paper publications. Lithium battery technologies 3

4 We have examined where the research in energy storage devices takes place and whether the results are published as patents or as research papers. Carbon based technologies for energy storage For example, most of the publications covering carbon and lithium are patents and filed in China. However, the research papers in this theme are published mainly by European researchers.) The size of the bubble indicates the average quality of the academic journals and the number of citations the patent have received. Of course, new patent applications have not yet had time to get any citations, which distorts the indicator somewhat. Typology of future shapers of secondary circle of the materials flow Tec Eco Env Pol Soc Eth Spa Drivers Barriers Opportunities Threats 4

5 Typology of future shapers of secondary circle of the materials flow Tec Eco Env Pol Soc Eth Spa Drivers Barriers Opportunities Threats Critical Issue Type 1: Drivers This refers to any kind of existing force, trend or enabler whether technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial that fosters a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES drivers Technological Technology development path & technical interest/ capabilities Economic Economic benefits Cost reduction Local development & employment Selfemployment Successful recycling plants often run on high volumes to offset high initial investment costs. Scale matters in the reverse loop, improving the marginal cost position for collection and remanufacturing operations and fetching better prices for sales of larger quantities. The small amounts of REE in recycled waste will most likely have to be processed either in existing facilities, or in new centralized plants where regional input can ensure the necessary economy of scale. 5

6 Critical Issue Type 1: Drivers This refers to any kind of existing force, trend or enabler whether technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial that fosters a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES drivers Technological Technology development path & technical interest/ capabilities Economic Economic benefits Cost reduction Local development & employment Selfemployment Environmental Climate change Environment fragility Energy sustainability Political Alignment with policy agenda Eco-friendly regulations Sustainable procurement Social Poverty Social inclusion Human health Welfare and security Ethical Responsible research and innovation Postmaterialistic values Spatial Demographic / spatial pressures Critical Issue Type 2: Barriers This refers to any kind of existing limitation or obstacle whether technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial that hinders a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES barriers Technological Undeveloped infrastructures Technical complexity and standards compliance Dependency of other technologies IP rights costs Economic High initial investment Resources scarcity Environmental Complexity of environmental impact assessment Political Inadequate regulation Bureaucracy Political inertia & resistance to changes Social Coordination of multiple actors & interests Users scepticism by lack of understanding Social resistance to change Manufacturers may not choose to use recycled metals with impurities. Where recycling produces metal with impurities, this might fail to find markets, even when it has the physical or chemical properties needed for use in specific products. Manufacturers may not choose to use such recycled metals, either because they do not know the precise mix of elements and compounds on offer, or because they are unsure of the quality or consistency of the recycled metal on offer. 6

7 Critical Issue Type 2: Barriers This refers to any kind of existing limitation or obstacle whether technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial that hinders a given sustainable innovation initiative. Examples of TEEPSES barriers Technological Undeveloped infrastructures Technical complexity and standards compliance Dependency of other technologies IP rights costs Economic High initial investment Resources scarcity Environmental Complexity of environmental impact assessment Political Inadequate regulation Bureaucracy Political inertia & resistance to changes Social Coordination of multiple actors & interests Users scepticism by lack of understanding Social resistance to change Ethical Religious or values related reluctance to change Spatial Historic & heritage restrictions Critical Issue Type 3: Opportunities This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to achieve something desirable, such as a technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial goal. Examples of TEEPSES opportunities Technological Technical capabilities and technological vision Digitalisation and IT agenda Curiosity and creativity User friendliness Post LIB (Li S): >1000 cycles, high energy density, improved safety. Around 2025, these batteries might be further improved and achieve higher cycles, energy densities and improved safety. For use in electric vehicles further time would be needed for Li S development, and they may appear in EVs beyond

8 Critical Issue Type 3: Opportunities This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to achieve something desirable, such as a technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial goal. Examples of TEEPSES opportunities Technological Technical capabilities and technological vision Digitalisation and IT agenda Curiosity and creativity User friendliness Economic Financial stability and support Market needs and gaps Environmental Waste upcycling alternatives Political Favourable regulation changes Political support Social Enthusiasm and motivation Knowledge transferring mechanisms Public participation Ethical Society values aligned with sustainability Spatial Rural spaces/ traditions attractiveness Critical Issue Type 4: Threats This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to affected by something undesirable, such as a technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial risk. Examples of TEEPSES threats Technological Breakdowns and maintenance issues Risk of imitation Economic Lack of adequate business model Incapacity to meet demand Economies of scale limitations Conformism: poor R&I activity Environmental Ecological collateral effects Political Government priorities change Collision with vested interests Risking oversimplification of the benefits of a CE. The CE discussion is often rather general and neglects the detailed discussion of true losses from the system due to complexity. The losses, not clearly shown and discussed by the MacArthur Foundation, will all have to be managed well within technoeconomic boundaries to maximize the RE of a CE for society. 8

9 Critical Issue Type 4: Threats This refers to any future possibility for a given sustainable innovation initiative to affected by something undesirable, such as a technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical or spatial risk. Examples of TEEPSES threats Technological Breakdowns and maintenance issues Risk of imitation Economic Lack of adequate business model Incapacity to meet demand Economies of scale limitations Conformism: poor R&I activity Environmental Ecological collateral effects Political Government priorities change Collision with vested interests Social Dependency of volunteering Sustainability of beneficiaries' awareness Inefficient social impact assessment Ethical Users' exclusion Questioning corporative SI rationales Spatial Unfavourable location for business continuity/exper imentation CASI-F in action 9

10 CASI-F in action (Steps 1 to 3) The amount (500+) and variety of critical issues (i.e. barriers, drivers, opportunities and threats) identified and prioritised in the assessment of 400+ SI called for a multi-level and multi-actor SI management approach. Such a approach should be implemented by multiple actors with different managerial roles and responsibilities. Example of steps 1 to 3 of CASI-F applied to a product innovation Step 1: Sustainability relevance & scanning + Step 2: Multi-criteria analysis & assessment Step 3: Critical issue analysis & assessment Application-driven battery development and recycling Application-driven batteries: Develop different types of batteries for certain applications, such as high-energy lithium ion batteries for modern communication devices, high-power lithium ion batteries for HEVs, EVs, and power tools, or longcycle-life lithium-ion batteries for UPS and SSBs. Physics-based-modelling and simulation: Quantitative computer models, based on the physics and economics of recycling with BAT, can be used for resolving complexity and guiding policy, thus replacing simple material-flow analysis. Physics-based-modelling and simulation of how batteries recycle can help designing a product that facilitates recycling, based on how batteries and their constituents break up and separate in BAT recycling processes. Educating and changing the behaviour of individuals can lead to better recycling: Managing post-consumer waste faces different kinds of challenges compared to the management of office or factory waste. Consumer behaviour plays a big part in collection, for example, by separating waste into different streams, as long as they know the product differences. If, for instance, the consumer has no idea what is in different batteries and is not given clear guidance on the fact that there are different types, these can potentially all land in the same battery-recycling bin and create a metallurgical nightmare. Barriers Threats Drivers Opportunities 10

11 CASI-F in action (Steps 4 to 5) The action roadmaps management approach addresses the context, people, process and impact dimensions and ten related key management aspects The multi-level and multi-actor SI management approach should be implemented by multiple actors with different managerial roles and responsibilities. Example of steps 4 to 5 of CASI-F applied to a product innovation Step 4: Multi-level advice management Step5: Action roadmaps management SI Management Increase staff innovation management skills and capabilities Action Top level management (strategic action) Initiate (carry out tasks never done in the Action Type past) Relevant Business actor (Innovator) actor MOMENTUM FORESIGHT RESOURCES MOBILISATION Identify and analyse Identify emerging Apply to Establish new database of existing management skills local/national funds contacts with local/ innovation and capacities in the for management regional business management sector, through skills development schools, and programmes in journals, Timeframe: researchers dealing international conferences Medium term with management CONTEXT business schools Timeframe: skills and dimension and attend Short term capabilities sub actions education fairs development Timeframe: (become a case Medium term study in schools) and incorporate action research in the company Timeframe: Medium term APTITUDE ATTITUDE Create an internal repository to facilitate Foster staff creativity with participatory PEOPLE knowledge transfer within the company, workshops, e.g. generate future actions dimension differentiating management skills from through highly transformed scenarios sub actions technical education Timeframe: Long term Timeframe: Short term CATALYSTS FOSTERERS PROCESS Involve key stakeholders in piloting and Establish incentive procedures to reward dimension experimenting with the firm s innovation staff professional development sub actions phases Timeframe: Medium term Timeframe: Short term TRANSFORMATIONS SUSTAINABILITY IMPACT Analyse staff potential and training Develop staff education plans for the dimension objectives in relation to local jobs and employers family so as to bring together sub actions competences professional and personal development Timeframe: Short term Timeframe: Long term SI Management Dimension 1: Context This dimension consists of 4 key aspects: Momentum, reflecting the potential space for innovation Foresight, showing the capacity to anticipate, strategise and overcome gaps in the innovation curve. Management Dimensions CONTEXT dimension Improve the reliability of prediction of recyclate input streams with variables such as: 1) Product composition, coming from consumer demand, policy change, product trends, changing technology (e. g. hybrid cars), 2) Monitoring of collected materials along the entire recycling chain, 3) Varying and changing product purchasing, affecting future waste streams, 4) Life time (usage) product distribution driven by consumer behaviour (e. g. shifting trends from mobile phones to PDA/ smart phones), 5) Disposal behaviour, 6) Collection schemes or informal collection activities. Time frame: long term PEOPLE dimension PROCESS dimension IMPACT dimension 11

12 Circular Economy (CE) Frameworks Identifying key technology areas: Incredient 1, Circular Economy's 10 disruptive technologies Source: Accenture (2014). Circular Advantage. Innovative Business Models and Technologies to Create Value in a World without Limits to Growth, 24 p. 12

13 Identifying key technology areas: Incredient 2, Lifecycle of metals and metal bearing products Source: Florin N., Madden B., Sharpe S., Benn S., Agarwal R., Perey R. and Giurco D. (2015) Shifting Business Models for a Circular Economy: Metals Management for Multi Product Use Cycles, UTS, Sydney on the basis of UNEP (2011) Recycling Rates of Metals A Status Report. A report of the Working Group on the Global Metal Flows to the International Resources Panel Authors: Graedel TE Allwood J Birat J P Reck BK Sibley SF Sonnemann G Buchert M Hagelüken C Identifying key technology areas: Incredient 3, The circular economy an industrial system that is restorative by design Source: The Ellen MacArthur Foundation. (2013) Towards the circular economy, economic and business rationale for an accelerated transition 13

14 Introduce cross-cutting platform technolgoies Material centric CE approaches Reuse of engineered materials Productservice Social media systems technologies 3. Product use, infrastructure Life Cycle Management Remanufacturing 3D manufacturing Material substitution 2. Product design and manufacturing Productioncentric CE approaches Design for Resource Efficiency Modelling and process simulation Intelligent production Optimization of recovery Raw material processing Recyclates preprocessing Value networks Modelling of economic outcomes Tools to aid CE decision making Data analysis Data management Safety and security 1. Raw material production and energy use/ recovery from geological and anhtropogenic stock User share ICT connectivety Platform technologies IoT semantic interoperability Advanced recycling infrastructure 4. End-of-first-life Recyclates collection Technology areas, summary THEME TECHNOLOGY AREA POSSIBLE OTHER FORMULATIONS Recycling infrastructure Recyclates collection 4 1 Controlled disintegration and separation Recyclates pre processing Trace and return systems, Optimization of recovery Material centric CE approaches Raw material processing Reuse of engineered materials Material substitution Process control and monitoring Critical raw material (CRM) substitution Tools to aid CE decision making Modelling and process simulation Modelling of economic outcomes Optimization of recovery Design for Resource Efficiency (DfRE) -1-3 Design for Sustainability (DfS) Life Cycle Management New business models Value networks Partners for revalorisation Production Centric CE Approaches Intelligent production 3D manufacturing Remanufacturing Product service systems Business services Platform technologies Social media technologies Collaborative lifestyles platforms, Social ICT connectivety Mobile Data management Trace and return systems, RFID Safety and security Machine learning, AI Big data analytics, Data analysis IoT semantic interoperability Internet of everything Relevance for CE Business potential Importance of policy actions 1 = Highest ranked 1 = Lowest ranked 14

15 Technology areas wrt domains Recyclates collection Recyclates pre processing Raw material processing Reuse of engineered materials Material substitution Modelling and process simulation Modelling of economic outcomes Design for Resource Efficiency (DfRE) Life Cycle Management New business models Value networks Intelligent production 3D manufacturing Remanufacturing Product service systems Social media technologies Material collection Material processing Product design Manufactu ring Industrial customers Private customers New products & services Product/ service markets From horizon scanning to forward planning Step 1: Horizon scanning and analysis of future shapers Stock-taking - Continue collecting potential shapers Sense-making - Label technological shapers to key categories (e.g. energy) Online questionnaire about main developments (e.g. move to maturity, pace, competitive advantage, diffusion, applications, disruptive potential) Step 2: Generating multi-level need-driven actions to support decision-making Managing Critical Issues & Shapers Multi-level and Multi-Stakeholders Advice Step 3: Supporting multi-dimensional transitions management Forward-planning Actions Roadmaps 15

16 Core Team Rafael Popper (PhD) is Principal Scientist in Foresight, Organizational Dynamics and Systemic Change at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, and Research Fellow at the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research of the University of Manchester. He is Director of Executive Education in Foresight and Horizon Scanning at the Alliance Manchester Business School, and Innovation Director and CEO of Futures Diamond Ltd (UK and Czech Republic). He has also worked at United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) and as consultant for the European Commission, World Bank and other international, governmental and business organisations in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Asia and Australia. Mika Naumanen (MSc Tech, MSc Econ) is a senior scientist in the Innovation and Knowledge Economy group of VTT. He has run VTT s business from technology program and managed a portfolio of business development projects in the fields of Industrial Systems Management, Services and Built Environment, ICT and Electronics. These activities include monitoring and forecasting technology development paths as well as developing indicators and providing analysis of how these projects meet the national research and innovation policy objectives. Naumanen is a visiting scholar in Statistics Finland also. 11/17/ Acknowledgements This work has been supported by the Strategic Research Council at the Academy of Finland, project CloseLoop (grant number ) ( 11/17/