ECONOMIA STRUTTURALE E NUOVA INDUSTRIA

Transcription

1 Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei Fondazione Edison 19 ottobre 2017 Strutture produttive, tecnologia ed economia 1 ECONOMIA STRUTTURALE E NUOVA INDUSTRIA Patrizio Bianchi UNIVERSITA di FERRARA e REGIONE EMILIA ROMAGNA

2 2 Economia strutturale e nuova industria La political economy del cambiamento strutturale la Scuola italiana di Cambridge, Scazzieri sulla Traversa di Hicks La centralità della produzione e della organizzazione della produzione e del concetto stesso di manifattura in relazione alle trasformazioni del mercato inteso come insieme delle interrelazioni che strutturano la società Industria come l insieme delle condizioni materiali ed immateriali che abilitano la produzione, il ruolo della tecnoscienza Patrizio Bianchi and Sandrine Labory Industrial Policy for the Manufacturing Revolution Edward Elgar Pu., forthcoming

3 Il punto di partenza «As it is the power of exchanging that gives occasion to the division of labour, so the extent of this division must always be limited by the extent of the power, or, in other words, by the extent of the market» A.Smith, The Wealth of Nations, I, 3, 1776 globalization Industry 4.0 Market power

4 4 Cambia l extent of the market Real GDP Growth (annual % change), Berlin Wall Fall Twin Towers Attack, Doha agreement, EMU Lehman Brothers Failure Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies World

5 5 Export of goods annual billion US (fonte IMF) Globalisation Digital globalisation Advanced economies Emerging and Developing Asia World

6 6 Mobile data traffic by application type monthly exabyte (Ericcson)

7 7 Manufacturing gross value and annual value rate of gross value added

8 8 Global mobile data trafic forecast and devices (fonte Cisco, 2017)

9 World annual supply of industrial robots (ooo) Estimated total stock of industrial robots Source: International Federation of Robotics, America Asia Europe Total

10 10 Manufacturing Value added, Current billion $ Manufacturing Value Added as a Percentage of GDP China Germany France United Kin Italy Japan United Sta

11 OTHER G20 COUNTRIES OTHER COUNTRIES SOUTH KOREA Share of world patent applications 60 USA 40 JAPAN CHINA EU 28 Patent applications, residents, 1985 to China Germany France United Kingdom European Union Korea, Rep. United States 0

12 GLOBAL MEGATRENDS DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH Vs. SCARCITY OF RESOURCES Increase in the productivity of land, capital and labour DISPARITIES AND INEQUALITY INSIDE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY capacity to give answer to personal and community needs CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBANIZATION MOVEMENT government of global, collective, community needs in the globalization era also the problems are globalized

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14 economic political Environmental social

15 If Global goals are the new extent of the market in the globalization era, Industry 4.0 must be considered as the new division of labour of the globalization era

16 16 Industry 4.0 cannot be seen only from a technological perspective, but also by analysing the economic, social, political, environmental impact that the adoption of enabling and converging technologies involves and evaluating the ability to provide appropriate and customized responses to emerging global needs

17 17 The first industrial revolution political revolution: Glorious revolution cultural revolution: Locke 1690 scientific revolution: Newton 1687 In the new bourgeois society, individuals assert themselves in politics using all production technologies CONVERGENCE OF TECHNOLOGIES IN A SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL COMPETITION AMONG COUNTRIES

18 Industrial revolution periods Political identity Reference technology/ SCIENCE 1 industr.rev Nation states Steam power GRAVITY 2 industr. Rev Nationalism and imperialism Electricity and automotive RELATIVITY 3 industr. Rev Bipolar world Electronics and informatics QUANTISTIC 4. industr. Rev globalization Hyperconnection

19 Product definition Volumes of production high Fordist production Industry 4.0 medium Flexible production low craft production low medium high Product Differentiation

20 Process organization scale high Rigid mass production Customized mass production medium Flexible mass production low Customized individual production low medium high scope

21 Organization of production and model of competition RIGID MASS PRODUCTION homogeneous product price competition FLEXIBLE MASS PRODUCTION differentiated product no-price competiton CUSTOMIZED MASS PRODUCTION personal needs competition

22 22 Enabling technologies Additive manufacturing I 4.0 Digital manufacturing Convergence of Virtual reality complementary technologies Second generation robots Internet of things Big data Artificial intelligence

23 23 FULL INTEGRATION PRODUCTION / SERVICES production Preproduction Postproduction R&D - PROD. LOGISTICS (supply chain organization) MARKET PROMOTION SALES (e-commerce) SALE LOGISTICS MARKET ASSISTANCE

24 industrial revolution has been seen as a traverse from a state determined by a capital structure, to another one This transition not only requires appropriate skills to design, manage and implement the change of production organization, but also to understand the changes in demand, and at the same time the opportunities offered by science

25 Organization of production and labour structure RIGID MASS PRODUCTION individual fragmented tasks FLEXIBLE MASS PRODUCTION from unmanned factory to japanese kaizen DIGITAL MASS CUSTOMIZATION always connected interactive team

26 26 People, technologies and labour in the Industry 4.0 era Job destruction and job creation Inside the factory: more team work, more virtual design, worker consciusness Inside the company: more client needs understanding, more value chain networking, more transversal competences, more institutional capacity inside the society: discovery new social needs, global challenges vision

27 Which skill, dexterity and judgement for Industry 4.0? Digital competences, but not only technical skills and dexterity for «work done», but also competences for judgements for «work to be done» To understand and manage the variety of emerging needs and transform needs in production And competences to work together, promoting collective intelligence, comprehension and creativity LINKAGES, SPECIALIZATION AND COMPLEMENTARITY MANAGEMENT

28 Re-shape ecosystems Re-imagine organizations Re-invent performance management TRANSFORMATION MANAGEMENT DYNAMIC CAPABILITIES / DEEP LEARNING

29 Education and training RESEARCH PRODUCTION TECHNO-SCIENCE COMMUNITY

30 SOCIAL INNOVATION Social intangible capital, resilience and the role of education The central role of education for improving social belonging and stressing the value of human resources for a social sustainable development. Policies to promote opportunities for developing skills and rights together through a collaboration between institutions, social organizations and citizens.

31 BUT THE HEAD OF THE VALUE CHAIN IS LOCATED WHERE WE ESTABLISH THE CORE OF THE TECHNOSYSTEM DIFFERENT FORMS OF PRODUCTION STAY TOGETHER IN THE GLOBAL MARKET PRODUCTION CYCLE STAGES ARE LOCATED ACCORDING TO THE AGGLOMERATION ADVANTAGES OFFERED BY THE DIFFERENT TERRITORIES Big data Bologna Technopole

32 32 Big data and the role of platforms Structural change and the New industry Extent of the market, division of labour, market power Dynamic Capabilities new public goods/ differentiated services The hyperconnection paradox and the new monopolization risks

33 P.Bianchi, S,Labory, 2011

34 Babbage Conference, Cambridge sept Production Transformation Dynamic ecosystem Multilevel government Coordination Capabilities entry/exit OPEN new public goods/ differentiated services Education Technoscience For Human Development capital services regulation

35 35 Roma 19 ottobre 2017