Towards a Global Systems Science

Transcription

1 Ralph Dum Future Emerging Technologies Directorate General Information Society & Media European Commission Towards a Global Systems Science The role of ICT for evidence-based policies in a networked global world: Providing evidence Driving action and change The views expressed in this presentation are the author s, not the European Commission s

2 There are many webs that humanity has spun IT has reshaped all of them and has weaved the Web IT helped humanity spin global webs (trade, finance, terrorism) Facebook Stefano Battiston networks of corporate control EC project FOC Threat: Governing such global hyper-connected networks becomes a challenge Opportunity: The web as social space web as agora and polis Can we profit from the collective power of such networks?

3 Harnessing the power of collective Intelligence Example: Civic media ICT allows citizens to map out their environments

4 Evidence-based policies Role of S&T and ICT in providing evidence (1)S&T models and data that help better understand complex socio-economic-ecological networks in our society. Example: Better models and data of the global financial and economic system. (2)Data on social and economic activities: New opportunities for the social sciences and for policies The web as social laboratory and rich source of data. (3) system thinking: How to orient our actions in a highly connected world? -Societal/policy decisions in different sectors are no longer disconnected: no more silos Unintended consequences of actions (why do bio-ful subsidies cause foot riots?) e -How to deal with systemic risks? How to make global networks resilient and sustainable? Tame versus wild risk

5 Does Market wisdom excel? Evidence-based finance? System effects dominate : Systemic risk due to feedback loops in network coordination problems in highly interdependent financial networks EC projects: NESS, FOC, CRISIS Opportunity for data driven approaches: After financial crisis banks must/want release more information on their activities. Scientists are using now these data to build better system-wide financial models

6 Evidence-based policies? What evidence? More information does not (always) imply better policy The awareness/coordination obstacles: Why don t we care/act? The role of ICT presenting evidence and in helping society act Why don t we do what we know we should be doing (1) -The problem of trust (in experts, models, authorities): ICT to engage societal stakeholders in the process of finding and evaluating evidence ICT puts into question the monopoly of expertise: no intermediate elites -Clash of values with scientific evidence: Evidence must be on both, scientific facts and priorities/values in society. -The problem of uncertainty and of timescales: Decisions have to be taken NOW even in case of uncertain input. 'Policy is not Nescafé' ( Hubert Vedrine) Better understanding of the underlying societal dynamics -see tragedy of the commons (Elinor Ostrom) (1) Joseph Tainter in Why do complex societies fail?

7 Towards a Global Systems Science From Evidence to social change and policy action 1 Advanced ICT to better understand our global networked society. Models: System models and simulations of highly connected networked systems Big Data: Put to use the IT driven surge in real time data on socio-ecoomic systems 2 Advanced ICT to increase awareness of global problems Tools to convey the results of models and to present data: narratives, games, data visualization Present model results in forms that relate to stakeholder priorities (example: Stern report on economic impact of global warming). 3 Advanced ICT to harness collective action and stakeholder engagement Engagement via participation: Tools for collective data gathering ICT provides new forms of collective actions - online communities, 'twitter revolutions'

8 Towards a Global Systems Science How to develop a research agenda? DG INFSO and beyond Running Actions in Directorate General for Information Society &Media Funded Networks to elaborate a research agenda in GSS - GSDP Global Systems Dynamics and Policies: - NESS Non-Equilibrium Social Sciences: - INSITE A new unit in DG INFSO on digital sciences with an emphasis on global systems science in strong collaboration with the EC policy directorates, parliament, and civic society. Three questions for breakout group: (1) Beyond statements of Intent: What is a credible 5 year (10 year) vision for a research program in GSS for a tangible contribution to evidence based policies and their implementation? (2) What are the scientific and societal obstacles in the way of achieving this vision? (access to data, model validation, uncertainty and decidability, stakeholder involvement, lack of a science base, need for computing and data infrastructure...) (3) Who are the relevant players and how wil they have to organize themselves? (Scientific disciplines, humanités, ICT, stakeholders,...)

9 The classical role of S&T to help solve problems via innovation S&T has consistently produced solutions that have helped society overcome crisis. We might, however, have relied too much on innovation: Problem of innovation cascades Can we innovate ourselves out of climate change problems? Or do we need to change our behaviors? The role of S&T can no longer be restricted to provide knowledge to create new technologies, increasingly it has to play a role in providing insights in the functioning our society and its links with technological innovation and environmental concerns.

10 The Web - a social space: A future driver of social change and policy action Facebook Past: Web as Alexandrian Library - The Web, the next Revolution after Gutenberg ( The Economist ) -Wikipedia: collective Encyclopedia Present: Web as Agora -Blogs/twitter: Hyde park online -Collective/Participatory approaches to federate human intelligence Future(s): Web as social lab - Web-based social experiments - Social data treasures online - Twitterology : analysis of public sentiment Future(s): Web as Polis -Real-time feedback on policies -Republique 2.0 (Michel Rocard) -Can the Web help drive political agendas?

11 Innovation: Economic Complexity Measures Combinatorial explosions Network of trade Economic complexity measures (German product space) : Cesar Hidalgo The Observatory of Economic Complexity is a an open source project that allows users to quickly compose a visual narrative about countries and the products they exchange.