Web 2.0. Internet of Things Between applied research and commercial prevalence

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1 newsletter 00 Anticipating future skills and qualifications Dear Readers, The FreQueNz network brings together a wide range of activities undertaken as part of the realigned initiative for the early identification of skill needs which is supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Within this framework four research projects on the skills required for the Internet of Things and Web.0, both now and in the future, were completed during the course of the year. The findings of these projects are outlined in the reports in this edition of the FreQueNz newsletter. The three articles on the skill needs engendered by the Internet of Things (IoT) in the fields of logistics, industrial production and smart homes provide a brief introduction to the technological aspects of implementing IoT in a range of different application domains. The last article takes a look at the ongoing public private health project which examines how changes at the interfaces between public and private health service provision will impact future skill needs. PAGE Internet of Things Between applied research and commercial prevalence Fraunhofer IAO, VDI TZ, ITB, isw, f-bb PAGE 4 The logistics skills needed in the future for the Internet of Things ITB PAGE 5 Trend-setting smart house skills isw, VDI TZ Internet of Things Between applied research and commercial prevalence Bernd Dworschak, Helmut Zaiser Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (Fraunhofer IAO) Leif Brand VDI TZ, Future Technologies Consulting Department Lars Windelband Institute of Technology and Education at the University of Bremen (ITB) Lothar Abicht isw Institute for Structural Policy and Economic Development ggmbh (isw) Claudia Achtenhagen Research Institute for Vocational Education and Training (f-bb) PAGE 7 The use of new Internets of Things technologies in industrial production f-bb PAGE 9 Public private health Future skill developments infas, WIAD PAGE 0 Web.0 in the world of work Skills needs, now and in the future HK, LMU, YW, KIT The main objective of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research s initiative for the early identification of skill needs is to pinpoint the skills, qualifications and competences required for the new jobs emerging from impending changes in the professional sphere and world of work and for which widespread demand may well grow over the next three to five years. Three projects relevant to the Internet of Things, which is the current focus of the initiative, were completed in the fields of logistics, industrial production and smart homes. This article considers the technological as well as definitional and conceptual issues involved in the implementation of the Internet of Things in the particular areas studied. At the present time no recognised common definition of the Internet of Things exists. However, the attributes of networking and autonomy provide convenient handles on which to hang a conceptual understanding of the nature of the Internet of Things (IoT). In the IoT objects which are integrated into the information network interact with each other and with control systems and other networks and, in this way, facilitate autonomous and intelligent process control. IoT is not, however, a discrete item of independent technology. On the contrary, it actually depends on the development and convergence of numerous different kinds of technologies and, as such, on the evolving ability of these technologies to coalesce, become networked and to interact with each other to achieve Web.0 All final reports and summaries of studies on Internet of Things and Web.0 are available at -newsletter 00

2 Development phases of the Internet of Things in logistics Attribute Development phase Development phase Development phase Networking Autonomy Information is read out manually; passive communication Information acquisition and storage (e.g. RFID) System communicates when particular events occur Communication: information transfer and processing (e.g. status messaging) System communicates all the time (active) Decision-making capabilities based on information processing functionality arising from comprehensive logic, sensor and actor technology Technology () Use of RFID () Use of sensor technology () and () using embedded computing capacity Aggregation level Power supply Localisation of intelligence (decision-making components) Technology at the packaging level By means of induction (e.g. contact tag and reader) Central, intelligence or decision-making components Technology on the final product (object level) E.g. through an accumulator Intelligence or decision-making components on the thing itself Technology on single parts (component level) Autonomous (e.g. by means of energy harvesting ) Decision derived from intelligence spread across several things autonomously functioning IoT systems. The most promising potential applications are currently envisaged in intelligent traffic systems, the health sector, logistics, industrial production processes and the smart house field. The technological underpinnings of the IoT are various forms of technology attached to objects which enable them to sense their environment, store data, communicate and act autonomously. One such technology is radio-frequency identification (RFID). RFID systems are able to read data without physical or visual contact with the source object. They consist of a reader and transponder or tag, i.e. a chip with an antenna. This enables the object to which the transponder is attached to be uniquely identified. As a result, RFID delivers the information needed to track precisely the location of specific components and products and also offers savings potential in areas such as warehousing. RFID systems can also be combined with sensor technologies which can be embedded in products with integrated computation processes where these are relevant. Sensor data can be updated automatically via RFID systems to enable functions such as the ongoing control of cold chains. Sensor networks comprising numerous single sensor devices can be used to monitor complex systems or processes. Increasingly demanding requirements for mobility and flexibility are fuelling the trend in RFID and sensor technology towards wireless systems in which a key role is played by radio-based data transmission. Wireless sensors designed to monitor their environments autonomously would benefit from processes to supply mobile systems with energy, such as evolving energy harvesting concepts which guarantee self-sufficient operation over long periods of time by deriving power from ambient sources. At present power is usually provided by batteries which, however, are only ever of limited durability. Alongside all these technologies, which for the most part belong to the information and communication field, and microsystem technologies, the further development of the IoT will be critically determined by advances in the material sciences, nanotechnology, optics/photonics, electronics, robotics, man-machine interfaces, artificial intelligence and computer science. The IoT phenomenon can be more narrowly defined by drawing on the linked attributes of networking and autonomy, referred to at the outset, at three characteristic phases of development, bearing in mind that further development phases could be added in the future. These phases can be used to identify the extent to which IoT has been implemented in each of the application domains studied. As the table on top of the page shows, the IoT-typical attributes of networking and autonomy have been extended for the logistics project by four attributes which are specific to the area of study. IoT technologies offer considerable benefits in logistics where they can be used in numerous merchandise and inventory management processes in which goods must be moved, recorded and localised. Technology of Development phases of the Internet of Things in industrial production Attribute Development phase Development phase Development phase Networking Autonomy Point-to-point connections: Exchange of data via bilateral connections between two things, e.g. reading out/ description of an RFID tag Not autonomous at all: Passive acquisition and storage of information Fixed network structures: Transfer of data from end nodes to a central control unit Semi autonomous: Things can process information which can be passed on when certain events occur. Self-organising ad-hoc networking: Network nodes are added/removed by the network itself. Fully autonomous: Decision-making capabilities of things based on comprehensive logic, sensor and actor technology, including communication with other things. -newsletter 00

3 Development phases of the Internet of Things in the smart house field Attribute Development phase Development phase Development phase Networking Autonomy Bilateral networking: direct bilateral connection between two objects Not autonomous at all: Objects/technical systems are passive. They include sensory data, display such data or transfer it without actually setting off any actions. Local networks: Networking of things in technically or locally closed systems which enable communication, control or, as a minimum, read access; e.g. close range wireless (such as WLAN) or bus systems Semi autonomous: Objects/technical systems are equipped with their own independent logic in addition to sensory elements and can process sensory data and initiate pre-programmed actions. Global networks: Networking of things using open systems, such as the Internet or cellular networks. Things are assigned unique worldwide identities (such as IP addresses, mobile telephone numbers). Fully autonomous: Objects/technical systems are equipped with comprehensive logic, sensor and actor technology. Fully autonomous systems tend more and more to have self-perceptive faculties. Their ability to act independently is based on technical intelligence and may go far beyond purely algorithmically based decision-making and action. this kind speeds up high-input search and data acquisition procedures for goods and transport containers and enables the permanent data matching which ensures that the latest information is always available. In development phase three the logistics process would be automated and equipped with an independent decision-making function for all six attributes. In this respect this phase - with its autonomous and self-controlled transport - comes very close to the Internet of Things. Whether phase three represents an ideal phase for a supply chain depends, however, on the logistical process conditions. In the framework of the logistics project current practice was found to be in a very early development phase in terms of IoT technologies, in most cases in phase. Although businesses are clearly paying increasing attention to these technologies, hardly any companies have actually reached the second or third phases. The identified technologies (e.g. RFID) are mainly used inside the business itself where objects neither communicate independently with each other nor have any direct influence on flows of goods. From a technological and business management perspective development work on IoT in the logistics field in the near future will, for the most part, probably be contingent on improvements in the readability of RFID chips near metal surfaces and a reduction in the cost of chip production. The most important factor across the board in the medium to long term remains technological convergence. In this context there is considerable optimism about overall innovative developments and the prospects for IoT technologies in Germany. The second IoT project concerns the smart house field. This relates to residential, office and industrial buildings which are equipped with technologies which enable buildings to be managed automatically or (semi)autonomously and in which various building-specific application domains communicate with each other. Smart house concepts not only offer convenience benefits, greater security and ageappropriate housing, they also facilitate energy saving. As the table on top of th e page shows, the IoT smart house features can also be considered in relation to networking and autonomy attributes in three development phases. Based on these attributes a study was undertaken of the six domains in which smart house is applied - security technology, domestic robotics, consumer electronics, household appliances, facility management and building services (i.e. energy and heating technology) - which are becoming increasingly easy to access via internet and radio-based channels. The current IoT development phase and the probable future development phases for the application domains referred to are illustrated in the following article on the study of trend-setting smart house skills. Compared with the range of standalone mature and commercially available technological solutions now available, very few fully-automated buildings, as opposed to prototype concept buildings, have actually been built. Many smart house technologies are still at the applied research stage. Most continuous improvements in the future may be expected in the application domains of facility management and home and security systems in particular. However, owing inter alia to the long service lives of buildings and their components, home systems in particular will only slowly penetrate markets. 4 In contrast, areas such as consumer electronics and the networking of home appliances may be expected to develop much faster. The third IoT project concerns the field of industrial production. In this domain the IoT typically entails replacing central control systems with distributed control units which are able to organise production processes in a self-regulating and autonomous fashion to create an intelligent environment. This would enable routine maintenance tasks, for example, as well as reconfiguring and troubleshooting to be undertaken by the machines themselves. IoT technologies can enhance the efficiency of product monitoring (e.g. using products which can store data about themselves) or of material procurement (e.g. using independent requirements notices and stock reports). 5 -newsletter 00

4 The development phases of these IoT application domains in the industrial production field of study are shown in the bottom table on page. The IoT was found to have been widely implemented at level in those companies in which cases studies were performed as part of the project s study of industrial production. Level technologies, in contrast, are much less common. Options which might be capable of implementing level are still at the drawing board phase and are unlikely to find their way into practical business applications in the near future. The logistics skills needed in the future for the Internet of Things Lars Windelband, Tamara Riehle, Helge Städtler Institute of Technology and Education at the University of Bremen (ITB) The study on the early identification of future skill needs which the Internet of Things (IoT) will engender in the field of distribution logistics at the intermediate qualification level was completed at the end of April 00. The study included a survey of the views of experts from the realms of industry, research and education, as well as training experts and working professionals, on the status quo of the IoT and its likely impact on the world of work. Company and research case studies as well as future expert workshops were also undertaken. Annotations On conceptual definitions, the most promising fields of application and the technological underpinnings of IoT, refer to Brand, Leif et al.: Internet der Dinge. Survey study, Zukünftige Technologien no. 80, published by Zukünftige Technologien Consulting, VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH, Düsseldorf, 009. Cf. ibidem, page 05 Cf. Brand, Leif: Internet der Dinge und Logistik. In: future technologies update, 0/09, published by Zukünftige Technologien Consulting der VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH, Düsseldorf, p. 5; Windelband, Lars et al.: Qualifikationserfordernisse durch das Internet der Dinge in der Logistik. In: FreQueNz-Newsletter 009, p Cf. Brand, Leif: Internet der Dinge und Smart House. In: future technologies update, 0/09, published by Zukünftige Technologien Consulting der VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH, Düsseldorf, p.. 5 Cf. Marwedel. Peter (008): Eingebettete Systeme.. Aufl., Berlin/Heidelberg; Weber, Heiko: Neue Technologien in der industriellen Produktion. In: Wirtschaft und Berufserziehung 9.09, p Status of IoT development and its practical implementation BIBA and ITB developed an instrument for the purposes of the study which can be used to produce a hierarchy of stages of development of IoT technologies. The instrument is one of the main foundations of the schema applied in the introductory article in this newsletter for categorising the implementation of IoT in various fields of study. It includes six characteristic attributes for the IoT and three development phases (cf. Figure on page 5). The phases represent the stage of progress reached in implementing the IoT vision. However, whether development phase three is essentially the ideal phase for a supply chain across several companies depends critically on the actual logistic processes involved. The radial diagram below shows the characteristic attributes of the technologies used in the companies in which case studies were undertaken. The diagram shows that hardly any companies have reached the second, let alone the third, phase. It was difficult actually finding companies for the case studies simply because, at the present juncture, so few actually fulfil the technological or organisational requirements for the IoT. While the relevant technologies (such as RFID, geolocalization and information processing systems) are in themselves mature, very few solutions have actually been implemented in practice to date. Although optimised and semi-automated logistic processes exist intercompany networking is still something of a rarity ( Intranet of Goods ). Numerous obstacles stand in the way of the comprehensive introduction of the IoT in logistics. These obstacles are partly technical in nature: RFID technology reads can, for example, be prevented to some extent by metals and fluids and implementation is also hindered by a lack of uniform standards. The current economic situation, combined with a negative cost/benefit assessment and uncertainty concerning data security, is holding businesses back from investing in the relevant technologies. The uneven spread of investment costs and benefits across the supply chain (ship operators, freight forwarders, terminal operators, etc.) is another important reason for the lack of implementation. Work processes and tasks in businesses There are very few businesses in which work processes, and consequently tasks, have undergone permanent change. Typically these changes involve the digitalisation and automation of operations. A technology mix consisting of digitalised documents, telematic records of geopositions, on-board terminals for status recording purposes and an integrated flow of information over the Internet enables customer-oriented services to be provided. It is in this context that it becomes increasingly important to have personnel 4 -newsletter 00

5 who not only understand the processes involved but who also have sound knowledge and skills using the relevant technologies. The study describes specific skill changes for professional drivers, planners and specialists in warehouse logistics. Development phases of the Internet of Things in all the businesses studied Network Object Distributed Packaging level Object level Components Storage Communication Decision making Positioning of intelligence Aggregation level Ability to process information The growing importance of process monitoring and implementation IoT technologies can be used to continue optimising the flow of goods and to improve process and product traceability. However, interventions continue to be necessary whenever problems arise. As a result the interface between IT services and logistics, where technologies and telematics applications are optimised and maintained, will become increasingly important in the future. The associated tasks not only demand knowledge of processes, but also the ability to structure technical procedures and to program and configure IT systems and are usually implemented by computer specialists. These in turn need detailed knowledge of logistical procedures - in fact, the kind of process knowledge which they have to date sourced from operational staff. However, more extensive process and planning knowledge is required in some areas. This could prove to be a new task area for planners (process engineers) or for a process controller, for example, for whom a very specific requirements profile was developed in the framework of the study. Quo vadis Internet of Things The future development of IoT will be critically shaped by the idea of process automation. At the same time, however, there is also a countervailing trend in which technology can promote 0 Technology Development phase Connectivitity Power supply Auto-ID Sensor technology Embedded system Induction Battery Autonomous Manual reads As required Ongoing greater creative freedom or, at the very least, an expanded range of tasks. The introduction of telematic systems may enable professional drivers, for example, to take on some materials planning functions. Most companies will probably opt for a future of (semi) process automation. This will involve a greater focus on skills and expertise relating to process monitoring and problem intervention abilities which, as a result of automation, will prove very difficult to acquire. Trend-setting smart house skills Lothar Abicht, Sirkka Freigang, Henriette Freikamp isw Institute for Structural Policy and Economic Development ggmbh (isw) Leif Brand, Andreas Hoffknecht VDI TZ, Future Technologies Consulting Department Study object and purpose The study of trend-setting smart house skills undertaken by the isw Institute and VDI Technologiezentrum focuses on new or modified skills required at the intermediate professional training level which, in around three to five years, could lead to widespread demand for specific skills. The study examined trend-setting skills which are representative of the Internet of Things in the context of the smart house. Trend-setting skills are new or modified skills which have evolved and are required in order to perform specific tasks relating to product or service innovations. The Internet of Things (IoT) is a manifestation of a profound interaction between people and technical systems, as well as between technical systems themselves, in which the relevant systems are increasingly endowed with technical intelligence which enables them to act independently to a certain extent. The study worked with a description of IoT and its implementation stages which is based on three fundamental attributes: technological convergence, computer networking and autonomy (cf. also the introductory article in this newsletter). The term smart house refers to intelligent buildings in the residential (smart home) and commercial (smart building) sectors, the defining characteristics of which are the (semi) automation and computer networking of various buildingspecific application domains. There are a number of reasons for constructing intelligent buildings, including in particular greater comfort, age-appropriate housing and increased safety and cost effectiveness. In order to be able to take a more differentiated approach to the study of the smart house field of study six application domains were considered: building -newsletter 00 5

6 services, facility management, security technology, domestic robotics, consumer electronics and household appliances. The following diagram summarises projected developments in the field of smart house All the trend-setting skills identified and analysed in the study were described in the form of qualification profiles. A qualification profile is a structured statement of the necessary components which go to make up a trend-setting skill and, in relation to an activity, includes the following: a description of the activity, its relation to existing skills and/or occupations, specialist skill needs and the personal attributes which are needed in order to undertake an activity. regulations which currently apply to dual vocational and educational training occupations as well as with comparable legal regulations for advanced and continuing training occupations, etc. to determine just how new such skill needs really are. Summary of results Smart house technologies have a significant impact on skill needs at the intermediate skill level. There is, in particular, a discernible and consistent increase in the level of skills demanded in the IT and electrical engineering fields as well as in communications with customers. It was very clear from the expert interviews that there is already a shortage of available skilled labour. The issue of smart house-related skills is consequently currently a matter of concern for educational and training institutions as well as for the affected businesses. Trade and industry confederations, associations Degree of realisation of the Internet of Things for the smart house application domains Fully autonomous Current status Forecast in 0 years Service robotics Facility Management Consumer electronics Semi autonomous Household appliances Service robotics Building services Household appliances Security technology Facility Management Security technology Consumer electronics Building services Not autonomous at all Bilateral network Local network Global Network Methods of investigation Trend-setting skills were determined by combining the early technology forecasting research approach used by the Future Technologies Consulting Department (ZTC) at the VDI with the industry scouting concept used by the isw Institute. The findings of the early technology forecast which describe technological trends in the smart house field in six application domains were added incrementally in the framework of industry scouting where they served as the point of departure for the identification of trend-setting skills. In an iterative search process it was possible to engage the commitment to the project of more than 60 corporate trendsetters, key suppliers and experts working at the cutting edge of industry developments. An ordered and systematic form was imposed on information derived from structured expert interviews to produce skill profiles. The skill profiles were reintroduced to an expert workshop where their validity was checked and they were compared with and initiatives are all attempting to counter skill shortages with special further training courses. Most of those interviewed expressed the wish for regulated initial training or continual vocational training. The study showed that while specific requirements have been taken up - such as the inclusion of automation technologies in curricula - many issues and related disciplines (such as broad interdisciplinary know-how) which are relevant in the smart house field have been neglected. Five skill profiles have been developed which could fill these gaps: System consultancy and sales, System integration, Remote maintenance and service, Direct smart house support and Domestic robotics service. These skill profiles are made up of a reshuffled combination of existing training occupations plus requirements which are 6 -newsletter 00

7 specific to smart house, such as interface design. Most of the overlaps between the identified skill needs and existing training opportunities were found in the following areas: electronics (in the specialist fields of automation technology, energy and building services, information and telecommunication technologies) as well as information and telecommunication technologies (for information system and telecommunication electronic engineers and commercial specialists, IT specialists and officers). Of the five skill profiles identified, four (direct smart house support, remote maintenance and service, system consultancy and sales as well as system integration) entail the same skill needs in certain fields. in the field of automation technology knowledge concerning sensor and actor technology-based plant control, in the field of information and communication technologies knowledge concerning the functionality of networks and, in the field of building control systems knowledge about the functionality of bus systems (to wired or wireless building management systems). There also continues to be some overlap between soft skills (e.g. team skills) and the broad interdisciplinary know-how which could be acquired in the shape of basic knowledge about electronics, heating, air conditioning and plumbing/sanitation, household appliances and security technology and consumer electronics. Annotations Cf. Hoffknecht, A./Zweck, A. (006). Technologiepotenziale frühzeitig erkennen und bewerten; VentureCapital Magazine Tech-Guide 006. Cf. Abicht, L./Freikamp, H.: Trendqualifikationen als Basis zur Früherkennung von Qualifikationserfordernissen. In: Abicht, L./Bott, P./Dworschak, B./Galiläer, L. (eds.): Auf der Suche nach neuen Qualifikationen Methoden der Früherkennung von Qualifikationsentwicklungen, FreQueNz- Buchreihe Qualifikationen erkennen Berufe gestalten Vol., Bielefeld, pages 9 0. The use of new Internet of Things technologies in industrial production Do skilled workers need to acquire new skills? Claudia Achtenhagen Research Institute for Vocational Education and Training (f-bb) The fact that so many production employees know so little about technological innovations or their use often is a frequent stumbling block which inhibits businesses from exploiting potential benefits early on and thereby securing their position in the market. In order to ensure that there are as few delays as possible in the transition from successful research and development work to application or production processes, new or changed skill developments taking place in the world of work must be recognised as early as possible and quickly integrated in the process of shaping and guiding vocational training policy. For this reason the focus of this study was on determining the impact on employees with intermediate-level skills in particular. Practitioners and researchers both anticipate Internet of Things technologies i.e. technologies which can be used to network objects in the real world with each other digitally becoming operative reality within the next ten years in four application domains of industrial production: The transparent monitoring, control and maintenance of machines and systems through to the integrated optimisation of production (intelligent and cooperatively interacting machines/systems). The monitoring of products throughout the entire manufacturing process with the aid of data storage, processors, etc. which contain identification information as well as information about the planned and actual production process (information stored in the product). In the logistics process e.g. in the localisation of products, requirements notices and stock reports on intelligent material procurement (using sensors designed to enhance the efficiency of production processes). In the complete decentralisation of the entire production process which, based on communicating and negotiating storage systems, processors, etc. would then be able to collaborate in planning, organising and evaluating actions. Future skill requirements were identified on the basis of various interviews with production managers, training and human resources managers as well of observations of work performed in testing facilities and companies operating in the automotive and automotive parts industries. The study found that the spectrum of tasks involved in industrial production will not be transformed in exactly the same way for all employees with intermediate skills i.e. those employees who have completed professional training but do not have a university degree and who work in the trade or profession in which they initially trained. Depending on the complexity of the work issues involved in each case it will be necessary to deploy professionals with different types of training (at the intermediate skill level) who the interviewed business representatives were able to categorise in three groups: Machine operators responsible for operating single machines or for clearly delimited sections of the production process -newsletter 00 7

8 Machine operators who perform controlling functions and who are responsible for several process sections. Thirdly, emerging indistinctly from the first two groups: Machine maintenance personnel on whose work the functioning of the entire production process may depend. A changing spectrum of tasks As much of the monitoring and retooling of machines will take place automatically in the future the spectrum of tasks undertaken by machine operators will tend to contract as routine inspections and manual conversion work become less frequent. The range of potential responses an operator can make to a problem will also be reduced once machines begin to dictate and display on monitors the action which must be taken. It is probably fair to assume that, as the breadth of tasks is reduced in scope, individuals will be required to assume responsibility for a larger number of machines. The changes which will take place in the spectrum of activities undertaken by the two machine operator and machine maintenance personnel groups of employees will largely affect the kind of work they do when problems arise whether problems in the electronics system or network technology need to be rectified by the employees themselves or whether evaluations generated by a machine need to be analysed and interpreted and the appropriate action then taken. As machines become increasingly intelligent and complex they will also begin to run ever more complex software. The more intensively such technology is used, the greater will be the corresponding maintenance and service input. It is also assumed that these two groups of employees will have more contact with people and machines in countries in which other languages are spoken whether such contact is to do with the purchase of external maintenance services or the BIBB-IAB-Modellrechnungen Robert Helmrich, Gerd Zika (Hg.) Beruf und Qualifikation in der Zukunft 00, 9 S., 7,90 (D)/46,70 SFr ISBN provision of support for the commissioning of machines sold to operators in other countries. This means that the range of tasks and responsibilities undertaken by machine operators and machine maintenance personnel will expand significantly without any prospect, as things stand, of any falling away of current work activities. Changing skill needs As more and more electronic, mechanical and IT components are used, employees at the intermediate skilled manpower level will need to meet changing skill needs. These skill needs can be subdivided into technical and interdisciplinary requirements. In technical respects machine operators and machine maintenance personnel will require a deeper combination of mechanical, electronic and IT know-how, knowledge of radio technology and as international networks expand quite considerable English language skills. The work performed by pure machine operators will as a rule not require all these skills. However, as it is usually the case that neither the company providing training nor the trainee can actually know - at the time of training itself - what the particular person s job in industrial production will actually be, these trainees will have to continue to undertake full initial training. The increasing complexity of control technology and the consequent lack of transparency in the realm of machine communication will significantly enhance the status of interdisciplinary competences, such as the skills involved in drawing on a range of different alternative methods, quickly internalising and analysing entire production procedures, handling abstract information, getting hold of essential information when it is needed, organising problem solving processes, using new communication channels, mastering stress management techniques and working as a member of a team. This means that the requirements which must be met by training personnel will also change: the continually accelerating process of technological change will mean that training personnel will not be able to offer the very latest professional expertise at all times. The logical consequence of this is that the role of training personnel will evolve from that of teachers to coaches who support the learning process of trainees and help them to acquire the learning skills they need. The training personnel of the future will be expected to successfully coordinate the interactive processes between technical schools, the specialists providing on-the-job training and the trainees themselves. wbv.de W. Bertelsmann Verlag Bestellung per Telefon per service@wbv.de 8 -newsletter 00

9 Public Private Health Future skill developments Helmut Schröder infas Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH Lothar Klaes Wissenschaftliches Institut der Ärzte Deutschlands (WIAD) The aim of the joint study by the infas Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH and the German Institute of Medical Practitioners (WIAD) is to identify future changes in the skill needs of employees in the healthcare and nursing systems. The study focuses on employees at the intermediate skill level (training occupations) over the limited time period of the next five years. Starting points and assumptions The study is based on the assumption that demographic trends combined with technological developments and overall economic constraints will lead to changes in the institutional services offered in the public private health sector which will also have a modifying impact on professional work carried out at the intermediate skill level. The study focuses on the way professional skills may be expected to develop and the new skills which professionals working at this level will require. Drawing on an analysis of original sources in the literature, pronouncements and the lessons learned from the project itself the study begins from the basic hypothesis that demographic change will be inextricably linked with a quantitative increase in age-related, chronic and neurologically degenerative illnesses. Changing social structures will present new general challenges for the health system and related fields including, in particular, for the care and nursing of older people. What the future almost certainly holds in store are new cross-sectoral and multiprofessional forms of care and structures within which health services are provided, combined with new patterns of cooperation and networking. This will lead to a shift in the assignment of tasks and new forms of interface management. Methods of investigation The study examines anticipated trends with the aid of expert appraisals. A methodological mix of qualitative and quantitative surveys will be used to collate the knowledge and expectations of relevant experts and to incorporate this information into scenarios. The selected experts will be active in regulatory, strategic and operative levels right across the entire health system and related fields (e.g. health insurance funds, watchdog bodies, professional bodies, medical associations, providers of nursing services, medical technology developers, advocacy groups for people with disabilities, scientists). The first phase of the study involves structured guideline interviews with representative people from various service delivery points in the health system as well as with people working in fields broadly related to health care, services for the elderly and ancillary fields. This study module Demands made of skilled workers Digitalisation of the world of work change skill needs in... New forms of care Other factors relating to demographic and technological change Evolving health and nursing service structures are intimately bound up with technological developments in the medical sector. Technological progress will lead to the computerisation, molecularisation and miniaturisation of even more fields of application. This will have huge consequences for networking and management (ehealth), for diagnosis and therapy and for prevention and rehabilitation. Technical applications as well as the associated change in work processes will alter professional work and skill needs. New emerging professions are also likely to find fields of work in the health sector for which they will need to be appropriately qualified. Occupations/Fields of work Fields of activity Organisations e.g. nursing professions, physiotherapists, social care professions, technical professions e.g. patient advice, diagnostics, nursing, home care, prevention e.g. hospitals, medical practices, outpatient services, care support points -newsletter 00 9

10 will work with a sample group of 0 experts from the medical frontline as well as from the fields of planning, research and technological development. The objective is to identify the current status of discussion, i.e. the diverse lines of argument and positions relating to changes in skill needs, and to arrive at highly experience-oriented hypotheses. In order to provided a broad empirical basis for the findings the study concept envisages a Delphi survey as a second step. This is based on a sample of around,500 representatives from the relevant institutions and organisations who will be asked to provide two rounds of written expert assessments by post (Delphi survey). The aim of the first wave of the survey is to obtain descriptions of expected changes from the specific perspectives of the participating experts. A standardised questionnaire will be used in the second Delphi round to give all the experts the opportunity to reappraise their statements, which will have been compressed into scenarios and hypotheses. Instead of the usual third Delphi round the plan is for the study to conclude with an expert workshop at which the study results will be presented for critical discussion. Expected result The aim of the research process is to describe the intermediate skill needs created by structural change and technological innovations from three perspectives. It will then become clear to which of these realms of practical action, i.e. institutions in the health system and related fields (general practitioners, forms of integrated care, care support points, etc.), these changes are relevant. It will be possible to determine which fields of activity are affected by the new development: Prevention, medical wellness Diagnostics, laboratory diagnostics Curation, therapy, medication (Inpatient) care Medical rehabilitation Palliation, hospice Patient advice and support Outpatient care / home care Documentation, quality assurance. It will also be possible to identify the extent to which different professions and fields of work will be affected by these changes. Where experts are already in a position to forecast and predict future developments we anticipate statements on changed activities and demand for intermediate skills. Web.0 in the world of work Skills needs, now and in the future Helmut Kuwan Helmut Kuwan Social Research and Consultancy Munich (HK) Bernhard Schmidt-Hertha, Claudia Strobel LMU Munich (LMU) Yves Waschbüsch Forschung & Beratung für Change Management und Kommunikation (YW) Gerd Gidion Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) The term Web.0 refers to a broad spectrum of interactive Internet applications, such as blogs, wikis or virtual collaborations, which have largely done away with the distinction between information provider and information receiver which is so typical of the world of mass media. These applications are also increasingly being put to use in businesses. The aim of the study was to identify as early as possible emerging developments at the intermediate skill level in this field. Following on from content research the study undertook expert interviews with representatives from the real business world, academia and the IT sector. The study concluded with nine case studies of firms undertaken over a period of several days in the motor vehicle/supply industry and IT/media sectors and with an expert workshop. Trends and fields of application in the context of Web.0 Many experts are convinced that mobile terminal devices, web-based social networking and cloud computing scenarios in which businesses use programs and data stored in external, virtual computer centres ( cloud ) instead of their own server structure, will grow in importance in the future. These new developments entail mixing classic office applications with Web.0 applications. Experts also anticipate growing media convergence and the concomitant need to prepare contents in a way that allows them to be used in various different types of media. Another trend concerns the development of collaborative activities in Web.0 environments right through to interactive value creation in which customers participate online in the design of products or services or even develop entirely themselves. Many businesses are currently looking for ways of using Web.0. Strategies adopted range from complete openness through to complete rejection. Web.0 applications are mainly used in service sectors as well as sectors which are close to end customers. In many cases applications which are initially used a great deal by graduate employees diffuse out to users at the intermediate skill level. 0 -newsletter 00

11 One particular feature of the study is the general description of the kind of Web.0 activities taking place in businesses. For example, the study identifies and analyses inter alia skill needs relevant to specific operational areas of work. Important areas in which Web.0 applications are used in businesses include, for example, internal and external coordination processes, process and quality management, market analyses, customer contacts, knowledge management, development work and the development of new fields of business. New avenues of action in human resource management field include the recruitment of skilled employees. Specific use is made of Web.0 applications in marketing, although at the same time marketing strategies may also be thwarted by negative external evaluations. Skill needs required now and in the future The requirements which skilled workers will need to meet and which are associated with the trends outlined here can be divided into six areas: () Communication in virtual space; () collaborative skills in virtual work settings; () handling of information and knowledge; (4) confidentiality requirements and legal issues in Web.0 environments; (5) individual responsibility for learning and multitasking as well as (6) IT competences. Issues, 4 and 6 are considered in a little more detail in the following. Critical skill needs relating to communication in virtual space are, inter alia: the ability to assess the opportunities and risks of different applications; using appropriate communication medium for the target audience in different Web.0 environments, including the ability to make constructive use of criticism expressed online; virtual customer development, or the ability to collaborate with customers on enhancements or innovations; deliberate reputation management based on the fact that contributions by skilled employees on the Internet also influence the reputation of their employers. In addition to direct Web.0-specific skill needs, a whole series of other requirements also exist which, while they are not specific to Web-.0 itself, will almost certainly become increasingly important as more widespread use is made of Web.0. A good example is mastery of the social standards of general Internet communication ( netiquette ) as another requirement which applies when communicating in virtual space. The diagram shows that experts anticipate more prevalent need and higher standards for both the ability to communicate in ways appropriate to the target audience in different Web.0 applications and for the purpose of virtual customer development. In the experts view focused reputation management will become a far more widespread activity in the future. A highly developed awareness of specific confidentiality requirements and legal constraints in Web.0 applications is also a key professional requirement, whether when working in a number of different environments in parallel where skilled employees need to be aware of different confidentiality requirements in the intranet, on cooperative platforms and on the Internet, or whether when engaging in professional exchanges in virtual social networks. Experts believe the level and prevalence of skills required in relation to the issues of data privacy and legal aspects are already high bearing in mind that almost all Internet users are confronted by this requirement. They also anticipate a continuing need for and prevalence of high levels of skill in the future. Experts also believe that the need for an awareness of virtual environments which is demanded in some segments and the resulting range of different confidentiality requirements are becoming increasingly important in more and more fields. In this context it is remarkable, therefore, that there should be such Current skill needs and anticipated changes in the next 5 years for employees with intermediate skills: Communication in virtual space Level of skills required Skill needs High Target group-appropriate language in Web.0 Virtual customer development Medium Reputation management Low Low Medium Prevalence High -newsletter 00