early identification of skill needs and technology forecasting - Points of alignment and potentials

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1 NEWSLETTER 2011 Anticipating future skills and qualifications Dear readers, The special focus of this FreQueNz Newsletter is on the connections between professional skills and technology. The articles in the newsletter discuss the impact of the Internet of Things on skilled work, the presentation of a project on skill requirements and new technologies as well as technology forecasting. The Newsletter s lead story considers those areas in which it may be possible to align early identification of skill needs and technology forecasting more closely with each other. Other articles touch on trends in the smart house field and present the findings of a now completed public private health project which examined the impact of changes in the health sector on skill requirements. One of the things which the articles show is that the relationship between skills and technology needs to be considered in connection with other (such as work organisational) factors in both directions. This is particularly the case as a one-sided adaption of skills to technology would almost certainly fail to make the most of existing development potentials. On the other hand, one of the benefits of exploiting the early identification of skill needs might be the ability to integrate such insights more strongly and much earlier when making decisions accompanying the diffusion of new technologies. Contents Early identification of skill needs and technology forecasting Points of alignment and potentials PAGE 1 Fraunhofer IAO Technology forecasting An instrument for predicting the future? PAGE 3 VDI TZ Diffusion of new technologies Changes in work tasks and the skills needed in the manufacturing sector PAGE 5 BIBB Future skill requirements in health professions PAGE 7 infas, WIAD Early identification of skill needs and technology forecasting - Points of alignment and potentials Bernd Dworschak, Helmut Zaiser Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (Fraunhofer IAO) Current trends and developments in the smart house field PAGE 9 isw Consequences of the implementation of the Internet of Things for skilled work and the human/machine interface PAGE 11 ITB Technological innovations and the capacities and skills which they demand are of critical importance in achieving positive economic development. New technology and changes in the way work is organised are two examples of situations which may engender the need for new or evolving knowledge and skills. This is the context in which the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) supports the initiative for the early identification of skill needs. Work and research undertaken as part of this initiative are linked up through the FreQueNz network and are intended to identify new or changing skill needs as early as possible. This work is accompanied by programmes and processes relating to technology forecasting programmes and processes. With a view to the possibility of strengthening the links between vocational education and training on the one hand and technological development on the other, this article ponders the overlaps and possible points of alignment between early identification of skill needs and technology forecasting. Approaches adopted by the BMBF to the early identification of skill needs A good starting point for looking at the overlaps and points of alignment between early identification of skill needs and technology forecasting is a model of industry maturity and of technological, work organisation, product and service innovation. 1 This model distinguishes between emerging, future, new and mature industries. The model also distinguishes three stages relating to new ways of organising work organisation and technological developments as well as product or service innovations: a development stage at which ideas or, for example, technological advances continue to be worked through, a dissemination stage at which planning, e.g. innovation marketing takes place, and an application stage at which products, for example, are on the market. All three stages can be identified in emerging and future, new and mature industries, albeit with a different percentage weighting (as shown in the figure on page 2) in each case. The research projects undertaken as part of the BMBF early identification of skills initiative aim to do just that: to pinpoint at the earliest possible juncture those new or changed medium-level skills which researchers are fairly certain will be widely relevant at the application stage in the next three to five years. For the purposes of the BMBF early identification initiative staff with medium level qualifications are primarily those who have completed a training course in a nationally recognised trade or profession as well as trained employees who have completed continuing training to, for example, master craftsman -newsletter

2 Industrial maturity and implementation stages Technology forecasting Early identification of skill needs Emerging & future industry 70% 20% 10% New industry Mature industry 30% 40% 30% 10% 40% 50% x% Proportion of activities at each stage Development stage Dissemination stage Application stage or technician level. In this respect, early identification is not focused on the potential industries of the future or development stages at which primarily higher qualified professionals are employed. Ideally, the projects are located in the spectrum between the change dissemination and application stages in emerging, new and mature industries. With its shortterm time horizon and focus on quality and content-related requirements, early identification differs from quantitative forecasts of demand for skills with a typical time horizon of 10 to 15 years. On the other hand, the difference between a present needs and an early identification approach is that the latter is forward looking and not focused on immediate utility. Early identification adopts a much broader perspective which ought ideally to embrace as many of developments as possible which may prove relevant in the future. The FreQueNz network openly disseminates project results which provide forward-looking information to players involved in vocational training policy and vocational training itself. In this way early identification insights can not only be used to accommodate future requirements in the training profiles of skilled occupations, but can also help in ensuring that firm-based and inter-company skill profiles and continuing professional development activities are tailored much more closely to current needs. Technology forecasting and early identification of skill needs The ongoing mutual relationship between technological advance and the development of new skills is the context in which we begin at this point to consider ways in which technology forecasting and the early identification of skill needs might be aligned. The paraphrase provided in the article by Leif Brand in this newsletter describes technology forecasting as the ongoing observation of technological developments for the purpose of identifying promising future applications at an early point in time and of evaluating their corresponding potential. 2 Technology forecasting and early identification of skill needs is undertaken from regional, national and European starting points. Firms also engage in technology forecasting, in many cases with an explicit relationship to innovation capabilities. As is the case when identifying skill needs, technology forecasting also involves both a short-term and long-term forecast which extends over a period of 15 years and longer. In the model referred to above, which classifies the maturity of innovations, this perspective corresponds most closely to an early phase of the development stage. Shorter term technology forecasting looks forward over a period of time of three to five years before a technological innovation reaches market maturity. As far as potential intersections between early identification of skill needs and technology forecasting are concerned, the time horizon of shorter-term technology forecasting appears to overlap substantially with the spectrum between the dissemination and application stages in which early identification of skill needs should ideally take place. This might, for example, correspond roughly with the future perspective of the BMBF s innovation and technology analysis (ITA) of five to seven years. This means that one potential point of alignment between technology forecasting and the early identification of skill needs might involve addressing topics which have been identified as important for the future in the course of short to medium-term processes of technology forecasting. In relation to the BMBF early identification of skill needsinitiative, the topics addressed ought to be those which are fairly certain to concern broadly relevant changes in skill needs. An initial stocktaking Now that the initial projects have been completed and given that studies which are bold enough to look to the future are characterised by uncertainty we wish to take stock of the project work which has been done on the topics of Web 2.0, Internet of Things (three projects) and public private health. The maturity model referred to above, which is capable of pinpointing more than merely technological topics, is a useful stocktaking tool in this context. The public private health field is a very broad topic and the scenarios elaborated from it can be placed at different levels of the maturity model, although they primarily become effective in the medium to long-term perspective. In businesses the subject of Web 2.0 is relevant at a variety of different skill levels. Now that Web-2.0 applications have become established at higher skill levels, their use is also becoming increasingly prevalent at and along medium skill levels. The topic has now therefore clearly reached the application stage. The situation is somewhat different as regards the Internet of Things and the key fields of logistics, industrial production and smart house : While the subfields of logistics and industrial production are still largely at the development stage smart house, in contrast, appears to have 2 -newsletter 2011

3 reached the ideal early identification target area midway between the dissemination and application stages. This is particularly apparent from the successful interaction between technology forecasting and early identification of skill needs in this project. In general, the future will show in which direction the Internet of Things is likely to develop: will activities at the medium skills level tend to become more or less demanding? 3 Potential of early identification of skill needs The study of the Internet of Things in the field of logistics in particular confirms that, depending on development directions and types of application, new technologies can have a countervailing impact on the medium skills required in particular. Early idenfication of skill needs may help to take greater account of the interactions between different types of technology use and skills needs at a relatively early period in time. One very important advantage of possibly tying early idenfication of skill needs and technology forecasting together relates to the potential broad diffusion of a new technology and the need for new or changed medium skills which this often brings with it. If too few of these skills are available, this can prove to be a decisive obstacle to the establishment of technical innovations. 4 If the early identification of skill needs is tied in with process of short to medium-term technology forecasting, it could be focused on topics considered to have major potential for the future well ahead of the diffusion threshold this kind of study would reduce the obstacles to the diffusion and establishment of technologies referred to above. Notes 1 Cf. Ferrier, F./Trood, C./Whittingham, K. (2003): Going boldly into the future. A VET journey into the national innovation system, Adelaide: NCVER, p. 27. URL: research/proj/nr9036_vol1.pdf. 2 The précis description of technology forecasting is based on Holtmannspötter, D./ Zweck A. (2002): Monitoring of Technology Forecasting Activities in Europe. In: Zukünftige Technologien No All final reports and summaries of studies on Web 2.0 and Internet of Things are available at > Projektergebnisse. 4 Cf. Thielemann, A. et al. (2009): Barriers to the establishment of new key technologies. Innovationsreport, TAB Working report No URL: pdf/publikationen/berichte/tab-arbeitsbericht-ab133.pdf. Technology forecasting An instrument for predicting the future? Leif Brand VDI TZ, Future Technologies Consulting Department Technology forecasting 1 describes the ongoing observation of technological developments for the purpose of identifying promising future applications at an early point in time and of evaluating their corresponding potential. 2 Opportunities and challenges primarily arise from the development of new products based on scientific findings and, more generally, from changed conditions arising from the emergence of technological innovations. The signs and symptoms of this kind of innovation are often weak and vague. A basic grasp of a very broad range of scientific and technical knowledge as well as a high level of integration in the relevant professional community, methodological competence and an awareness of the needs and objectives of specialist early identification projects are essential in the identification of incipient trends. In some cases, completely unforeseen new technological developments emerge entirely unexpectedly to make exist technologies obsolete. In contrast to incremental developments, abrupt technological changes or discontinuities are hard to predict and represent a huge challenge for the early identification of new technology. 3 Demand pull and Technology push perspective In principle, there are two perspectives from which technology forecasting may start 4 : The demand pull perspective, which has become more important recently, takes higher-level and for the most part societal challenges as its initial key focus. 5 This line of inquiry explores which future technological developments may be suitable for meeting these challenges and what concrete measures can be taken to promote such technologies. A more common and, particularly with regard to the early identification of the skill needs engendered by technological developments, more relevant perspective is the technology push approach. This approach is therefore explored in greater depth in the following. The technology push perspective focuses on the early identification of emerging technologies. These are analysed in terms of their potential impact on existing, or their stimulation effects on new, fields of application and action. The technology forecasting process Reliable findings will only be generated if technology forecasting is undertaken within a specific timeframe and is focused on particular fields of technology. A timeframe is particularly important in terms of the monitored stages of research and development. If the focus is on innovations which are predicted to be ready for market in three to five years, -newsletter

4 Technology forecasting phases Definition Identification Topic pool (Prior)Evaluation Implementation most of the relevant developments are currently mainly at the prototype stage. If this time horizon is adopted, the early identification of skills can be tied in fairly directly. In contrast, if the time horizon is 15 to 20 years, monitoring will focus more strongly in developments which are currently at the basic research stage. Certain other definitions must also be made in addition to timeframe and subject/technology related distinguishing characteristics. The topic-related search space as well as certain criteria on which research into new developments and their identification and evaluation are based, and suitable sources of information, must be stipulated. The following are just some of the methods used to gather information: Internet searches, Evaluation of specialist literature, studies, reports, Screening and analysis of national and international programmes of R&D research, Evaluation of market analyses and studies, Content-driven and statistical patent analyses, Bibliometry (statistical analysis of the number of publications in a particular field of science), Expert information and targeted surveys of experts, Conferences, congresses, trade fairs, Industry monitoring. High-performance information and knowledge management is of critical importance for the efficient use of methods. The methods used depend on the specific requirements of the task at hand and the phase of the early identification process. The technology forecasting process basically has three phases (see figure above). presentations for (prior) evaluation to ensure that a structured and competent approach is made to the topic. In the case of many identified topics it also makes sense to quantify and appropriately visualise relevance, e.g. by specialist or application experts, in the context for example of a discussion workshop. The need for action may arise out of the evaluation process. This means, for example, that a company might find it necessary to gear its marketing strategy or product portfolio to future developments at an early stage. In terms of vocational education it may be necessary to modify existing education and further training courses to innovative technological developments. This means that the required action must be specifically identified in the implementation phase and corresponding recommendations for action generated which help the responsible decisionmakers to initiate implementation action. Conclusion Technology forecasting may not be a means of precisely predicting the future, but the acquisition and interpretation of a range of relevant information and findings concerning technological developments in a number of different fields and the potential links between them does enable well-founded and scientifically based assessments to be made. Technology forecasting is therefore a suitable tool for function holders, in the private and public sectors, engaged in the early identification of certain developments and in supporting strategic decisions. What is more it can also provide a stimulus and springboard for subsequent studies in the framework of early identification of skill needs. Notes 1 Terms such as technology monitoring or technology forecasting are often used synonymously in the literature. 2 Holtmannspötter, D.; Zweck, A. (2002): Monitoring of Technology Forecasting Activities in Europe; Zukünftige Technologien No Pleuß, P. O. (2006): Konzept zur Internetnutzung bei der Technologiefrüherkennung; Zukünftige Technologien No Cf. ibid. 5 Cf. for example the Lund Declaration, Europe Must Focus on the Grand Challenges of our Time, Swedish EU Presidency, 8 July 2009, Lund, Sweden. URL: polopoly_fs/1.8460!menu/standard/file/lund_declaration_final_version_9_july.pdf The identification phase is when relevant technology topics are identified. This phase basically entails the ongoing monitoring of information sources, the efficient transfer of information and discussion of proposed topics. The outcome is a pool of topics which are evaluated in detail in the next step. It is during the evaluation phase that the relevance of the identified technologies is assessed on the basis of previously defined evaluation criteria. Depending on requirements it may be appropriate to draw up profile-like topic-focused 4 -newsletter 2011

5 Diffusion of new technologies Changes in work tasks and the skills needed in the manufacturing sector Monika Hackel, Bärbel Bertram, Ulrich Blötz, Ilse Laaser, Magret Reymers, Herbert Tutschner, Elke Wasiljew Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (BIBB) The research project launched by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education (BIBB) in July 2011 is a selective and comparative study of the varieties of new technological diffusion processes in the manufacturing sector. The aim of the project is to identify overarching indicators for the ongoing monitoring and early identification of changed skill needs which are significant for the work undertaken by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education (BIBB) on general training plans. The project is also expected to produce findings on the skills currently demanded by new technologies in specific sectors. One factor influencing successful project performance is the broad involvement of businesses, industries and people actually involved in vocational education and training practice. 1 Point of departure and research focus New technologies play an important role in the ongoing development of Germany s economic and technological capacity. Labour market studies predict a high level of development potential associated with the diffusion of new technologies linked with increased demand for skilled labour. However, this development depends on the diffusion of technologies in high technology manufacturing sectors in the form of product and process innovations. In this context the question is how this process can be promoted by vocational education policies as well as how changes in the demand for skills generated by technical innovations can be recognised at an early stage and their implications for vocational training systems can be evaluated. One key assumption of the project is that the diffusion of new technologies does not concern one specific technology alone and that such diffusion takes on divergent forms in different industries in the course of diffusion. Changes in products and processes (e.g. manufacturing processes, quality control, tools), mean that different technological innovations can also impact activity systems and alter existing qualification and organisational structures at this level. For example, the adaption of the same technology in industries with sharply diverging characteristics, specific workforce qualification structures and industry-based ways of organising the division of labour will influence established functional differentiations in work systems and the development and career opportunities they offer. This means that the form and content of qualification and training will have to satisfy highly divergent requirements. In all probability the skilled management of new tasks will necessitate adaptations in scientific and technical knowledge. It is also assumed that a systematic activity-based theoretical analysis of the diffusion process will provide insights on changed skill needs and recommendations for the design of new training concepts. The next section briefly outlines the theoretical foundations of the project. The planned project stages are sketched out in the following section. Theoretical foundations This empirical study uses cultural historical activity theory CHAT, referred to in the following simply as activity theory, as its conceptual framework. 2 Working within this framework it is possible to approach the subject issues systematically while simultaneously taking account of various system levels. The activity theoretical principle of historicity means that activities must be analysed in the light of their sociocultural relations. There are parallels here with the model of path dependencies. This model assumes that decisions taken in the past as well as internalised patterns of thought and routines have an impact on the present and on future developments. As far as the diffusion of new technologies is concerned, this means that when analysing local activity systems on the shop floor consideration must also be given to the conditions and rules of the higher level community of practice (such as professional associations, industries, networks) in order to substantiate statements and recommendations concerning future developments. Activity theory is a theory of organisational learning which explains collective learning processes in the world of work. The theory is based on the assumption that in the course of processes of change resistance will occur in the activity system. Resistance can be analysed to arrive at an assessment of whether the diffusion of one or several new technologies into an existing activity system has relevance as regards changing skills. In practice different groups of learners may be actively involved in the research process as participants in the local and extended community of practice. The principle of a potentially expanded version of activity systems is ultimately based on the assumption that processes of change can be actively shaped by way of reflection and discussion. Planned procedure The methodological approach of developmental work research builds on the activity theory framework and, by switching between social scientific analysis and reflection with the participating practitioners, offers a helpful approach in the research process. The following diagram shows the different research steps taken in the project with the associated objectives and relevant players. -newsletter

6 In the first project step sector analyses of the form taken by technological diffusion in specific industries and industry segments are performed and light shed on the predominant network structures. These are then used to select business case studies. The business case studies consist of two parts.the first step is to carry out problem-centred interviews at the skilled industrial and the certified foreman (master craftsman) level to elicit information about changed work tasks, difficulties and skill requirements. Relevant decisionmakers then join a subsequent group discussion to reflect on these findings in the actual business context and have the opportunity to elaborate local approaches to a solution. The data derived from the case studies is reflected on in a workshop with industry representatives to determine the relevance of the results and any training requirements in the industry. The last step is the performance of a cross-sector case comparison to identify indicators for permanent technology monitoring with a genuine vocational pedagogical objective. One factor influencing successful project performance is the broad involvement of businesses, industries and people actually involved in vocational training practice. Notes 1 A detailed project description is available at pdf/ at_41301.pdf. 2 Cf. Engeström, Y. (1999): Learning by Expanding, Marburg; Engeström, Y. (2008): Developmental work research. A paradigm in practice, Berlin. Planned methodology Project Diffusion of new technologies Changes in work tasks and the skills needed in the manufacturing sector Sector analysis Case studies Step 1: Interviews Case studies Step 2: Workshop Intra-industry comparison Cross-industry analysis Analysis of technology trends in relation to industry and industry segments Interviews at the skilled industrial and certified foreman level Workshop to discuss interview outcomes with relevant decisionmakers Comparison of several case studies from a single industry Cross-industry case comparison Objective: Identification of relevant diffusion processes Selection of case Objective: Elicit information about - changed job tasks - difficulties - skill needs Objective: Validation of data at the establishment level Elaborate local solution concepts Objective: Identification of crossindustry skill needs Objective: Identification of indicators for technology monitoring with vocational pedagogical relevance Businesses Industry Vocational Training Practice 6 -newsletter 2011

7 Future skill requirements in health professions Thorsten Köhler, Helmut Schröder Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH (infas) Lothar Klaes, Alexander Rommel, Gerhard Schüler Wissenschaftliches Institut der Ärzte Deutschlands (WIAD) This project performed a study on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) on the additional competences and skills which employees at the medium qualification levels (recognised training and further training occupations) will require in the future in order to meet the demands entailed in providing high value healthcare. Around 300 experts took part in a Delphi process in which they expressed their views on the fields in which they believed developments would occur which would engender changed or additional skill requirements in health professions and in other occupations which at present are rarely associated with the health sector. In order to be able to work through the complex issues with the help of expert judgements six scenarios were developed which reflect key trends and processes which have already been initiated in the health sector. These changes will call for wholly new qualifications or for qualifications which have been adjusted to the development. Examples of these are presented in the following. Scenario 1: Care and nursing of elderly and very old people in a domestic setting At the present time around 70 per cent of over 65-year-old people in Germany who are in need of nursing support receive outpatient care. The interviewed experts believe that trends which are clearly sweeping people into retirement and nursing homes at the moment will turn again in favour of community care structures in the future. More than two thirds of them expect to see an across-the-board extension of nursing stations, improved advice from nursing insurance funds and further advances in assisted living (such as shared accommodation for people with dementia) over the next ten years or so. While the needs which these changes entail are not new, the interviewees believe that many employees will nonetheless need to upgrade their qualifications. More professionals are expected to be needed who have special knowledge in the fields of active nursing, outpatient rehabilitation, intensive care needs and pain therapy. Independent coordinating services as well as advice and guidance for the relatives of older people, including people with dementia in particular, are regarded as indispensable aspects of nursing and non-medical health professions. Scenario 2: New tasks for professionals providing community-based and inpatient input (e.g. auxiliary services which divert work away from doctors, new division of labour) New tasks in community-care and inpatient settings will be encouraged by new diagnostic and therapeutic technologies, will be driven by the pressure on costs produced by the growing number of older patients suffering from chronic ailments and will also arise as a result of the increasing scarcity of service provision in rural areas. Eight out of ten experts anticipate much broader fields of activity for medical and nursing professionals in the medium term. Owing to shorter hospital stays some elements of clinical nursing care and follow-up care have been relocated out into the community. The technical competence of professional medical employees and nursing staff must be upgraded if medical services are delegated to nursing professionals. Skill needs are perceived in the narrower context of diagnostics and therapy (e.g. ECG, injections), checking the feet of diabetes patients, prevention of falls and providing instruction in and monitoring of domestic care. Scenario 3: Grounding health promotion and disease prevention in all fields of healthcare activity The potential for improved health and quality of life as well as for avoiding illness and their evolution into chronic conditions has not yet been sufficiently exhausted. The interviewed professionals consider that health promoting changes in structures and behaviour are necessary but, at the same time, are sceptical about the likelihood of such changes being made. What is considered most probable is that health promotion and disease prevention will be extended in education. A second field of development is the broader participation of stakeholders and the provision of preventive advice to families in specific target groups. Health promotion and preventive care competences are cross-cutting qualifications which are valid in many health professions. So far, however, there have been too few practical implementations which can be used by professionals as guidance. This means that much more will have to be done to convey competence, to customise measures to specific requirements and to communicate changes in behaviour based on individual risk profiles. Scenario 4: Growing demand for health maintaining services (e.g. health tourism) Measures taken in the medical wellness field are designed to strengthen physical well-being and improve the quality of life. Services include offers to promote movement and manage stress, as well as nutritional programmes and applications in spar and wellness tourism. The offers extend beyond standard medical provision and are privately financed. Demand is predicted to rise as early as over the next five years. Two requirements profile are apparent. Medical therapeutic professionals require basic knowledge of health pro- -newsletter

8 Cross-scenario skill needs compared with the six scenarios Fields of activity and requirements with relatively high additional skill needs Scenario Interdisciplinary communication, team orientation, multiprofessionalism Target-group appropriate communication and interaction (particularly with elderly people, concerning settings for defined target groups, people with dementia, people with a migration background, people with disabilities) 3 Health promotion and disease prevention focused on needs of target audience setting relations Care and health management (local authority or quarter related) Coordination and networking of different service providers Quality management Dealing with multimorbidity Electronic documentation and evaluation Patient education and advice Interface management Knowledge of chains of medical treatment and cross-sector process organisation Guidance for care providing relatives Solid setting knowledge Palliative care, end-of-life care Guideline-oriented action Interdisciplinary assessments Medication management Social marketing Data security and protection High to very high need for skills 1 Medium to high need for skills moting issues relating to nutrition, movement and life style as well as quality control competences. The second group consists of hotel and administrative professionals whose responsibilities include accommodating and looking after guests. These professionals are expected to have basic knowledge of medical wellness services and marketing competences. Scenario 5: Telemonitoring and assistance systems as the mainstay of new service structures and skills needs (e.g., e-health, telecare, AAL, smart house) The ongoing development of information technology will result in permanent changes in the medical and nursing care provided in the next few years. A great deal more doctor - patient communication, diagnostics, therapy and nursing care will take place via the telephone or the Internet. This will entail sending the patient s vital information (such as heart rate, blood sugar) directly to the relevant position. If needed, therapeutic instructions can be given in the opposition direction to patients and professionals. Medical or technical professionals who receive or are provided with such data and who pass on doctor s instructions will need to meet new or changed requirements. Nursing staff and professional medical employees who provide care in the community and who operate the assistance systems used by their clients will also be affected. A third group is made up of technicians who sell, install and configure telemedical systems. Scenario 6: Increasing networking and rising need for care for chronically ill patients (e.g. integrated and cross-sector provision) The proportion of chronically ill patients in the population is destined to go up in the decades ahead. In the future there will therefore be a need for much closer networking between different professional disciplines and areas of care (general practice and specialist medicine, hospitals, nursing institutions) in order to improve the quality of care and to keep a tighter lid on health costs. Process management will need to link up diagnosis, therapy, nursing and other service and care input much more closely than is currently the case. The experts accept the need for closer networking even if they disagree on the specific organisational forms this should take. There is at any rate a consensus that today s skills profiles are inadequate to the presenting tasks. There is a need for enhanced skills relating to the methodological competence of coordinating specialists, in data exchange, interdisciplinary communication and patient advice. Specialists also require additional medical, organisational and business management competences in order to coordinate treatment regimes more effectively. 8 -newsletter 2011

9 Current trends and developments in the field of smart house Sirkka Freigang isw Institute for Structural Policy and Economic Development (isw) Research findings derived from the study of trend-setting skills in the smart house work setting VDI TZ and isw Institut performed an extensive study on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in 2009 and 2010 on the evolving medium-level skills which are required in the field of the Internet of Things which focused on smart house. 1 The study was based on scientific trend analyses and a survey of around 80 experts. The study showed that there is a growing trend towards the IT networking of products and technical systems in residential and non-residential buildings which is giving rise to multiple and new skill requirements. This is also true of the situation-driven ability of these properties to function autonomously as a result of the increasing endowment of inanimate things with technical intelligence. The growing acceptance and diffusion of networked and intelligent appliances and systems was projected in 2010 and now, one year later, positive market developments in the smart house field confirm the identified need for skill-enhancing action. Cross-scenario cross-cutting qualifications In the future there will be far greater demand to meet requirements with a much broader span and for skill elements which will be used more extensively in cross-cutting tasks in a number of fields of activity. These include interdisciplinary communication and team orientation, target group focused communication and interaction, health promotion and disease prevention, care management, coordination and networking, quality management, electronic documentation and evaluation as well as the handling of multimorbidity (refer to table). The study does not suggest that any entirely new professions can be expected to emerge in the German health sector and related fields. While the experts emphasise that changed requirement profiles will call for additional qualifications they nonetheless assume that qualification adjustments in existing professions can be met by further training and continuing professional development of employees with medium level skills. Current developments and trends Interest in smart house issues has grown remarkably in recent months. This is apparent, for example, from the findings of the numerous market research studies on the forecasting of market prospects in the smart environment. A study undertaken by Logica Business Consulting on the market potential of home automation services, for example, found that 57 per cent of surveyed utilities already offer smart home services and that a broad range of services in the fields of buildings services, household appliances and consumer electronics are also in the offing. 2 Berg Insight anticipates sales increasing from 2.3 billion dollars in 2010 to 9.5 billion dollars in The Association for Electrical, Electronic and Information Technologies (VDE) also concludes that the smart home is well on the way to becoming the economic engine driving industry, the retail sector, the skilled trades and the housing industry. 4 Businesses are increasingly establishing themselves with new smart products or services. The positive growth forecasts are also being taken on board now by large enterprises, such as Microsoft, Cisco, IBM or Google, which are increasingly presenting themselves as supplier of smart products to consumers. It is also striking just how often the topic of connected life and work is showcased at trailblazing congresses and trade fairs. This year s CeBIT, for example, dedicated extra space to exhibits on the theme of smarter living and the increasingly popular leading trade fair ConLife (Conference and Exhibition for Connected Life) was attended by 20 per cent more visitors this year than last. With regard to qualifications and competences, a survey of 161 respondents in the retail industry and skilled trades undertaken by the GfK identified improved advisory skills as the critical factor for overcoming skills-related -newsletter

10 barriers to the further diffusion of smart produts. 5 This means that operators in these sectors should be much better at conveying precise information to consumers on the possibilities and benefits offered by smart systems. All these indicators show that the topic is already being addressed by businesses and is perceived as a profitable field of activity. Accompanying trends, such as smart grids, ambient assisted living, e-health, cloud computing, green IT, video & music streaming, mobile devices, embedded systems, tablets and smart phones all support these developments and offer further opportunities for the ongoing advancement of an intelligent home system. Future developments There will be even more networked products and services with IP capability or similar features in the future: these will be radio rather than cable based and as such capable of retrofitting. Technological and economic developments will make smart terminal devices cheaper to buy in the future. The general trend towards open systems and interfaces will become even more prevalent. Further progress with intuitively operable user interfaces will make it much easier and simpler to use and set up systems using processes such as plug and play and automated updating. This means that separate intelligent products are destined to become autonomous total systems with new solutions which offer consumers greater convenience and energy efficiency. Overall intelligent products may be expected to evolve into intelligent systems. In the years ahead the application of smarter technologies and corresponding gateways which can link up discrete nonoperable devices will lead to an even more intensive blending and merging of fields of business and construction elements: power supply, telecommunications, electric cars, security technology, robotics services, building services, ambient assisted living/e-health, consumer electronics and household appliances. Power and information systems will continue to be integrated in smart girds which will result in new services and products on the one hand and new challenges for utilities on the other. This will be accompanied by an intensification of the current trend towards decentralised power generation by consumers. In this respect consumers will increasingly act as energy producers and infuse the term prosumer with ever more significance. The challenges of the future will probably have less to do with the development of technological systems as such than with the appropriate solutions-oriented and needs-focused application of existing technologies and in their convergent and efficient integration. Indicators for the establishment of smart homes in 2020 Players Microsoft Google Cisco IBM RWE The following areas are likely to attract particular interest: 1. Consideration and examination of consumer needs; 2. Development of business models and the expansion of suitable sales structures; 3. Legal frameworks (in terms, for example, of smart metering ); 4. Data security and privacy; 5. Weighing up of consumer costs and benefits; 6. Establishment of open standards and vendor-independent collaboration and 7. Qualification of (female) professionals. From 2020 onwards 50% of all houses will be smart Trends The qualification of female professionals as a separate field of concern is related to the well-attested shortage of employees with smart home skills as an obstacle to the further development of a mass market. The newly launched Female Smart House Professionals project has been launched in active response to this problem. The aim of the project is to transfer the results of the study referred to above which have been analysed so far to businesses operating in the smart house industry by qualifying female professionals in particular to take on tasks in the smart house field. Structures must also be created in businesses which permanently establish gender equity throughout the economy. The project, which is sponsored as part of the national Equality for women in business initiative ( was launched in collaboration between isw Institut ggmbh und SmartHome Initiative Deutschland e.v. initiiert. 6 Cloud Computing Mobile Services Video & Music E-Energy E-Health Tablets Technologies: EIB/KNX, EnOcean, ZigBee, Z-Wave, Bluetooth, digitalstrom, IP, LCN, LON, OSGi, 10 -newsletter 2011

11 Consequences of the implementation of the Internet of Things for skilled work and the human/machine interface Lars Windelband, Georg Spöttl Institute of Technology and Education at the University of Bremen (ITB) Development Legal framework Business models Customer requirements Training Increasingly intense IT-based interconnectedness is creating more and more opportunities for monitoring complex systems and processes and of controlling these without any human input. One consequence of this development is the emergence of hybrid constellations which are permeated by human players and (semi)autonomous machines 1. IT systems are slowly but surely becoming more autonomous and the role of human operators ever more peripheral. This is largely due to new hi-tech developments in the RFID (radio frequency identification) field and the Internet of Things. BACnet, ebus, HomeMatic, IPTV, Powerline etc. Notes 1 Abicht, L., Brand, L., Freigang, S., Freikamp, H., Hoffknecht, A. (2010): Final report on the identification of trend-setting skills in the field of the Internet of Things focusing on smart house. 2 Logica (2011): Smart Home: Energieversorger beschränken sich noch auf Dienstleistungen rund um die Energiemessung und -steuerung. Logica Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG, URL: 3 Energie und Technik (2011): Von der Luxus- Residenz in den Durchschnittshaushalt. Smart Home: 9,5-Mrd.-Dollar-Markt bis WEKA FACHMEDIEN GmbH, URL: 4 VDE (2010): Heimvernetzung auf dem Weg zum Wirtschaftsmotor. Association for Electrical, Electronic and Information Technologies (VDE), URL: 5 Boyny, J. (2011): Conlife 2011: Vom Smart Home Markt partizipieren. Wege für Industrie, Handel und Handwerk den Markt zu pushen. Talk available online at 6 The Female Smart House Professionals project supported by BITKOM was jointly developed by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS), BDA and DGB. The national initiative for equality for women in business is financed from BMAS funds and the European Social Fund (ESF). Further information on the national initiative is available at: _11_29_projekte_gleichstellung_ runde5.html. The autonomous control of business processes ushers in a wholly new stage of technical development. This will have a decisive impact on the world of work. In contrast to machines which perform tasks in processes which are determined and controlled by people, networked systems in the Internet of Things are able to make decisions independently. Studie QinDi Log This aspect, and the transfer of IoT into real skilled work processes, has been examined in greater depth as part of the Skills required by the Internet of Things in logistics (IoT) early identification study. The results published in the FreQueNz- Newsletter 2010 show that while companies are thinking more and more about IoT, in most cases the degree of diffusion is still relatively low. The evaluation of the empirical study shows that hardly any business has yet managed to network beyond the confines of the company itself. Objects neither communicate independently with each other nor do they have any direct influence on flows of goods. Despite the low level of IoT diffusion in logistical processes to date, companies can be identified in which processes based on this technology have in fact been permanently modified and in which staff tasks have also changed. The key objectives of these companies are to automate processes and digitalise information. A technology mix consisting of digitalised documents, telematic records of geopositions, special on-board terminals which record the status of goods in transit and an integrated flow of information over the Internet enables these companies to provide more efficient customer-oriented services. Two fundamental lines of development can be identified: 1. On the one hand the technology is used to automate processes and to reduce failure rates in work processes. In many case this has led to a simplification of the tasks and associated requirements profile at the level of the skilled worker. 2. On the other hand, IoT technologies are used to optimise work processes. At the same time employee s fields of work have also changed. The staffing capacities released by the implementation of these technologies have been absorbed by other tasks with the result that, in most cases, fields of work have become more extensive and, above all, more varied. If the development aim is to automate processes, then technology decisions are taken and these take the form of program-controlled technological predefined work routines. The operation-related and operative tasks performed by skilled employees become much simpler in this case provided that no faults or other -newsletter