From 2015 MDGs to 2030 Sustainable Development Goals: Is South Africa ready for the challenge? An Editorial

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "From 2015 MDGs to 2030 Sustainable Development Goals: Is South Africa ready for the challenge? An Editorial"

Gerald Wilkinson
6 years ago
Views:

1 1 From 2015 MDGs to 2030 Sustainable Development Goals: Is South Africa ready for the challenge? An Editorial Note Pumela Msweli Durban University of Technology Abstract This paper describes the salient features of the United Nations 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development; how these features compare to the 2015 millennium development goals (MDGs); and the implications thereof for South Africa. There are 53 globally designed MDG indicators that South Africa adapted from the UN official list of MDG indicators. The key difference between the eight MDGs and the newly established 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) lie in the scope and applicability of these two goals. While the 2015 MDGs focused mainly on the social agenda, SDGs integrate social, economic and environmental goals, and recognise the interlinkages between these dimensions. Moreover, SDGs are applicable to both rich and poor countries, irrespective of the development status. Out of 53 MDG indicators, targets related to nine indicators were reported as unlikely to be achieved by This was attributed to socio-economic backlogs, slow economic growth, and high levels of inequality in South Africa. Data deficiency was recorded in relation to primary education (MDG 2), maternal health (MDG 5), HIV and Aids, malaria and other diseases (MDG 6), environmental sustainability (MDG 7) and global partnerships (MDG 8). Insufficient data, further reduced South Africa s capacity to achieve the MDGs. Pro-poor policies that saw the country halving the amount of people living below $1 a day (ppp) have neither dented the levels of inequality, nor increased growth. The new agenda for 2030 challenges South Africa first, to accelerate research processes to develop baseline data to capture, monitor and evaluate the newly launched sustainable development agenda; and to closely interrogate the relationship between development, growth and inequality. This issue is published a few days after a historical launch of the United Nations 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development. World leaders who attended the Global Sustainability Summit on September 2015 made a commitment to implement a universal policy programme to achieve 17 sustainable development goals and 169 targets by 2030 (United Nations, 2015). For developing countries such as South Africa, the new agenda will build on the policy infrastructure and work put in place to achieve the United Nations 2015 MDGs. Pumela Msweli, 2015 There are 53 globally designed MDG indicators that South Africa adapted from the UN official (UN 2015). Out of these indicators targets related to nine indicators were reported as unlikely to be achieved by 2015 (South Africa, 2015). This was attributed to socio-economic backlogs, slow economic growth, and high levels of inequality (South Africa, 2013). Data deficiency, as I have shown in Table 1, was recorded in relation to primary education (MDG 2), maternal health (MDG 5), HIV/AIDS, malaria and other disease (MDG 6), environmental sustainability (MDG 7) and global partnerships (MDG 8). Insufficient data further reduced South Africa s

2 Table 1: South Africa s MDG indicators and achievability Millennium Goals Development Total Indicators related to each MDG MDG Indicators Achievability by 2015 Data deficiency Achieved Likely

2 2 Table 1: South Africa s MDG indicators and achievability Millennium Goals Development Total Indicators related to each MDG MDG Indicators Achievability by 2015 Data deficiency Achieved Likely Unlikely MDG1: Eradicate poverty MDG2: Primary education MDG3: Gender equality MDG4: Reduce child mortality MDG 5: Maternal health MDG6: HIV/AIDS, Malaria MDG7: Environmental sustainability MDG 8: Global partnerships Total Source: Generated by author using data from Republic of South Africa MDG 2013 Country Report capacity to achieve the MDGs. If eight MDGs could not all be achieved after a fifteen-year period, what is the likelihood of achieving double the amount of goals and more than quadruple the amount of targets, as envisaged in the 2030 sustainable development agenda? A pessimistic view would hold that given the country s underperformance with a few MDG dimensions, notably, inequality in its various forms, economic growth, unemployment and environmental sustainability targets, the 169 targets would be out of reach. In this paper I present the pessimistic and an optimistic view going forward. I present my argument in two sections. First, I describe the salient features of the 2030 Sustainable Development global agenda and how it compares to the 2015 MDGs and implications for South Africa. In the second section I present evidence that highlights a number of reasons to support an optimistic outlook going forward. I conclude by pointing out peculiar risks that the country faces and offer a research agenda going forward. From 2015 MDGs to 2030 SDGs: Implications for South Africa Figure 1 depicts the new sustainable development goals. The key difference between the goals lies in the scope and applicability of the two sets of goals. While the 2015 MDGs focused mainly on the social agenda, SDGs integrate social, economic and environmental goals, and recognise the inter-linkages between these dimensions. There are six key points to take away from the comparison above. First, some of the targets and indicators from the 2015 MDGs have been broadened and reclassified as goals. For example, clean water and sanitation, slum dwellers, and

3 3 Figure 1: An illustration of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 1 No poverty 2 Zero Hunger 3 Good Health and Wellbeing 4 Quality Education 5 Gender Equality 6 Clean Water and Sanitation 7 Affordable and Clean Energy 8 Decent Work & Economic Growth 9 Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure 10 Reduced Inequality 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities 12 Responsible Consumption and Production 13 Urgent Climate Action 14 Life below Water 15 Life on Land 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions 17 Partnerships for the Goals Sustainable Development Goals Source: United Nations 2015: These indicators have been broadened and reclassified as sustainable development goals (SDG6, SDG11 and SDG14). Another case in point is poverty eradication (MDG1). Here we have a goal that had a combination of social and economic indicators. However, post the MDG era, we see specific sustainable goals that have a bearing on the economy. These include SDG8 (decent work and economic growth), SDG9 (Industry innovation and infrastructure), reduced inequality (SDG10), and affordable and sustainable modern energy (SDG7). Secondly, the environmental sustainability dimension of the 2015 MDGs has been expanded substantially to include access to clean, affordable and modern sources of energy (SDG7), responsible consumption and production (SDG12), and climate change (SDG13). Thirdly, the only time the words urgent action have been used is in relation to climate change (SDG13).Fourthly, disease and health related Issues (MDG 4, MDG5, and MDG6) have been reshaped to include well-being for all, at all ages. Fifthly, infrastructure development has been made more prominent in SDG16. The manner in which this goal is stated proposes an agenda to accelerated industrialisation, innovation and a need to develop skilled human capital to operate in a modern economy. Lastly, the 2030 agenda introduces a new dimension that captures issues around peace and governance and (MDG 16). The 2015 MDG agenda did not address peace, justice, governance and accountability. The question is how ready is South Africa to take on this new global agenda? What are the implications of post MDG agenda for South Africa?

4 4 Going forward an optimistic view Let us first look at environmental sustainability, socio-economic infrastructure and capacity to implement the 2030 agenda. The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa (Act 108, of 1996) sets the tone for sustainable development in Chapter 2, Section 24 (a) and (b). These sections clearly state that the environment has to be protected for the benefit of present and future generations, through reasonable legislative and other measures that prevent pollution and ecological degradation; promote conservation; and secure ecologically sustainable development and use of natural resources while promoting justifiable economic or social development. A battery of policies to give expression to sustainability sentiments have been developed. These include the 2008 National Energy Act, the Industrial Policy Plan of 2010, the 2013 Carbon Tax Policy, and the 2014 Waste Management Act. The socio-economic legislative framework is even much more robust than is the case with environmental sustainability. The inauguration of the new government in 1994 prompted development of a series of policies to address the inequities of the past. The Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) was among the first set of policies to be introduced. Fundamentally, RDP was founded on the tenets of the developmentalist vision of having the state playing the leading role in the reconstruction and development project. However, two years down the line the government changed its macro-economic stance and implemented the Growth stance and implemented the Growth, Employment, and Redistribution (GEAR) programme. In 2006, ten years after GEAR was implemented the South African government introduced the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGISA). The wording used in the ASGISA policy suggest that the policy was inspired by the 2015 MDGs because it uses similar terminology used in MDG1: to halve the level of poverty and unemployment by 2014 and enable South Africa to achieve and sustain high average economic growth (ASGISA, 2006). A year after ASGISA was implemented the government adopted the National Industrial Policy Framework (NIPF) with the purpose of setting out an approach to industrialisation, almost pre-empting the SDG 16 of the 2030 agenda. Implementation of the National Industrial Policy Framework was set out in the Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP1), which was later revised to (IPAP2). Shortly after the introduction of ASGISA and the National Industrial Policy Framework, the government launched the New Growth Path (NGP) which lays out a vision for a more developed, democratic, cohesive and equitable economy and society in the context of sustained growth (New Growth Path, 2009). The NGP aims at using macro and micro economic policies to support labour absorbing activities that result in the creation of millions of quality jobs, economic growth and poverty eradication. In 2011 the National Development Plan was adopted. The National plan sets out a vision and strategies to create 11 million jobs by 2030, to eliminate poverty and

5 Figure 2: Gini Coefficient of South Africa in comparison to selected Southern African Countries Source: World Bank 2013 Gini Index World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sl.pov.gini.

5 5 Figure 2: Gini Coefficient of South Africa in comparison to selected Southern African Countries Source: World Bank 2013 Gini Index World Bank, to reduce inequality by reducing the Gini coefficient from 0.69 to 0.6 by 2030 (NDP, 2011). A pessimistic view My observation is that South Africa is not short of economic policies. It is quite clear from the country MDG report that with all the policies developed in the past twenty years South Africa remains trapped in a low growth trajectory with widening inequalities, low country savings, limited supply of skilled human capital, lack of innovation and high unemployment rate to count but a few factors attributed to MDG under achievement (South Africa, 2013). As I have illustrated in Figure 2, South Africa has the highest level of inequality in Southern Africa. The figures mask the gender, regional and non-income disparities. The MDG country report (2013) shows that while the female to male literacy ratio is one, gender disparity is more prominent in wage employment income. The source of the disparities are more visible in Figure 3 where I show GDP per capita grouped by Province. Eastern Cape is the poorest province in South Africa in terms of GDP per capita, followed by Limpopo. While Gauteng is the smallest province in terms of geographical space, it generates the largest amount of GDP and has the highest GDP per capita closely followed by the Western Cape. The foregoing discussion points to income inequality and economic growth as the key issues to tackle in South Africa going forward. Pro-poor policies that saw the country halving the amount of people living below $1 a day (ppp) have neither dented the levels of inequality, nor increased growth. The new agenda for 2030 calls for modernisation and accelerated industrialisation of the economy. Going forward the country needs to close the knowledge gaps that were prominent in an attempt to capture, monitor and evaluate MDG goals. This can be done by making the 2030 sustainability development agenda a broader, interdisciplinary priority that includes civil society, trade unions, private sector, public sector, primary and higher education sector. South Africa needs to also meticulously unpack the relationship between economic development, economic growth and inequality. The relationship between growth and inequality is complex because while inequality has been found to have a negative impact on growth it is also an essential component of a functioning market economy as it provides the incentives needed for economic growth and investment.

6 6 Figure 3: GDP per capita (2010, R million) by Province Source: Statistics South Africa(2014) This complexity is manifested in a myriad theoretical strands that depict different nuances of the relationships between inequality and growth. For example there are theoretical strands that show that inequality can cause political and economic instability, consequently reducing the pace of growth (Berg and Ostry, 2011; Ostry, Berg, and Tsangarides, 2014). Another theoretical strand emerging from literature is that, when wage income lags behind GDP per capita, income inequality widens (Van Zanden, Baten, Foldvari and Van Leeuwen (2011). Following the same line of thought, if wage income grows faster than GDP per capita, income inequality is likely to decline. Milanovic (1995) on the other hand argues that initial inequality can have a permanent effect on a country s growth.. Does this mean that there are other avenues to tackle inequality other than to look at economic growth? Future research should explore this question. Is it possible that in going through the motions with the intricacies of economic policy formulation South Africa is focusing narrowly on solutions that will solve country s unique problems? The reality is that South Africa is the only country in World that has a Gini coefficient in the 60s (see World Bank 2015).To move forward the country might need to find solutions from sources unexplored previously. South Africa does not have sufficient human capacity to tackle the SDG goals nor does it have sufficient resources to implement the goals. All the 17 goals are urgent. South Africa might have to walk the minimalist approach called for in the sustainability discourse by replacing urgent with vital. On the balance of evidence, economic development appears to be urgent. A focus on development rather than on growth is likely to help the country achieve the 17 sustainable development goals. To introduce this new journal by reviewing South Africa s development successes and challenges sets the context for the mission and purpose of the Journal of Green Economy and Development. Theoretical contribution and application of knowledge to achieve sustainable livelihoods, and to protect mother earth together with Her various ecosystems will make us relevant in the journey to sustainable development.

7 7 Acknowledgements The founding of a journal and its subsequent progress depends on associate editors and reviewers who volunteer their precious time to advance scholarship. I take this opportunity to thank our Associate Editors and all our reviewers, as well as our authors for their contribution to this issue. References African National Congress (1994) The Reconstruction and Development Programme: A Policy Framework. Umanyano Publications, Johannesburg ASGISA (2006) Accelerated Share Growth Initiative for South Africa (online). Available: Retrieved: 11 October 2011 Berg A.G. and Ostry J.D. (2011) Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin? (online) Available: 1/sdn1108.pdf Retrieved: 4 November 2013 Milanovic B. (2005) Worlds Apart. Princeton University Press (online). Available: press.princeton.edu/chapters/s7946.pdf. Retrieved: 13 September 2014 National Planning Commission (2011) National Development Plan (online). Available: Retrieved: 02 May 2013 Ostry, D. Berg A. & Tsangarides C.G Redistribution, Inequality and Growth. IMF Staff Discussion Note (Online). Available: Retrieved: 08 May 2015 Republic of South Africa (1996) Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, Act 108, of 1996, (online). Available: Retrieved: January 2010 Republic of South Africa (1996). Growth, Employment and Redistribution A Macroeconomic Strategy. Government Printers, Republic of South Africa (2008) National Energy Act, No 34 of 2008, National Energy Department (online). Available: EnergyAct_34of2008.pdf Retrieved: 12 February 2011 Republic of South Africa (2009) New Growth Path The Framework (online). Available: Retrieved: 29 March 2013 Republic of South Africa (2010) Industrial Policy Action Plan, Economic Sectors and Employment Cluster, Department of Trade and Industry (online). Available: Retrieved: 12 September 2013 Republic of South Africa (2013) Carbon Paper Policy for Public Comments National Treasury Department, (online). Available: /Carbon%20Tax%20Policy%20Paper% pdf Retrieved: 15 December 2014 Republic of South Africa (2013) MDG 2013 Country Report (online). Available: pdf Retrieved: 15 October 2014 Republic of South Africa (2014) National Environmental Management Act No 26: Amendment Act of 24, Waste Amendment Act, 2014, (online). Available: s/legislations/nemwa_actno26of2014.pdf Retrieved: 14 March 2015 Statistics South Africa (2014) Gross domestic product (online). Available: P04413rdQuarter2014.pdf 14 March 2015 United Nations (2015) UN adopts new global goals, charting sustainable development for people and planet by 2030, (online). Available: D=51968#.VhSprMvZfdk Retrieved: 27 September 2015 Republic of South Africa (2010) Industrial Policy Action Plan, Economic Sectors and Employment Cluster, Department of Trade and Industry (online). Available: Retrieved: 12 September 2013

8 8 United Nations (2008) Official list of MDG indicators, (online). Available: t=indicators/officiallist.htm Retrieved: 26 September Van Zanden, Baten, Foldvari and Van Leeuwen (2011) The Changing shape of global inequality : Exploring a new dataset CGEH, Universiteit Utrecht Working Paper Series (online). Available: Retrieved: 23 October 2014 World Bank (2013) Gini Index (online). Available: Retrieved: 10 May 2013 World Bank (2015) Gini Index (World Bank Estimate (online). Available:

Downloads from this web forum are for private, non-commercial use only. Consult the copyright and media usage guidelines on

Downloads from this web forum are for private, non-commercial use only. Consult the copyright and media usage guidelines on Econ 3x3 www.econ3x3.org A web forum for accessible policy-relevant research and expert commentaries on unemployment and employment, income distribution and inclusive growth in South Africa Downloads from