D2.5 Methodology for forward looking activities

Transcription

1 D2.5 Methodology for forward looking activities Conceptual framework and foresight method description [03/2014] Document Title: D2.5 Methodology for forward looking activities Reference: Deliverable Report Nature: Dissemination level: Public Version: 3 Status: Final Date: 31/03/2014 Author(s): M. Dufva, J. Kohl, T. Loikkanen, R. Molarius, O. Salmi Changes: Clarifications and stylistic changes Reason for change: Partner comments Authorised: This project has received funding from the European Union s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No

2 Revision history Version Date Modified by Comments 0 25/02/2014 Mikko Dufva (VTT) Initial version. 1 07/03/2014 Mikko Dufva (VTT) First draft distributed to partners. 2 25/03/2014 Mikko Dufva (VTT) Included Ecologic, Tecnalia, PIK and ESTEP comments. Refined the methodology. 3 31/03/2014 Mikko Dufva (VTT) Included changes suggested by UCL. Spelling and other stylistic corrections. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 2

3 General Information Authors Mikko DUFVA Johanna KOHL Torsti LOIKKANEN Riitta MOLARIUS Olli SALMI WP5 Partners 1. JIIP 2. Ecologic Institute 3. PIK 4. SP 5. Tecnalia 6. VTT 7. Wuppertal Institute 8. UCL Contact WP 5 leader Olli Salmi VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Kemistintie 3, Espoo P.O. Box 1000 FI VTT, Finland [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 3

4 Abstract The purpose of this document is to provide a conceptual framework for RECREATE project and a methodological foundation for the forward looking analysis to be undertaken as part of Work Package 5 (WP5). The conceptual framework describes linkages and dynamic interrelations between relevant actors, factors and systems of RECREATE project. By clarifying these interconnections the framework supports the detailed design and execution of work packages and subtasks of the project. The methodology for the forward looking analysis describes the tools and processes for stocktaking of the current situation, vision scoping, scenario elaboration to reach the vision and the multi-regime frame for the scenarios as well as the overall process of forward looking activities to be undertaken in WP5. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 4

5 Executive summary This document consists of two parts. The first part introduces the conceptual framework for the RECREATE project. The conceptual framework helps to perceive linkages and dynamic interrelations between relevant actors, factors and systems of RECREATE project. By clarifying these interconnections the framework supports the detailed design and execution of work packages and subtasks of the project. The framework includes two general outlines. The first is a model of nested systems. The general holistic context of the RECREATE project is Sustainable Development (SD). Within this context the environmental system forms an overarching framework for the RECREATE project. In the environmental framework the socio-economic system consists of actors and processes extracting, harvesting and using raw-materials and environmental resources and causing climate change. Extraction and processing of raw-materials and resources take place in value chains of the production. Consumption system and sustainable solutions are supported by life-cycle assessment which largely follows the logic of business value chains. The search for innovative solutions in the three focus areas of RECREATE of production and consumption system will be analysed within the innovation eco-system. The second outline of the conceptual framework is that of the system transition. The system transition from the current regime with fragmented European R&I in the three focus areas to the new regime with more integrated R&I will be considered within the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework. Accordingly the MLP framework, within overarching environmental system and socio-economic system, forms the second general outline of the conceptual RECREATE framework illustrating the system transition. The second part of this document describes the methodology and process for Forward Looking Activities undertaken in work package 5. The forward looking analyses help in overcoming the fragmentation in the areas of climate change, raw materials and resource efficiency by drafting a vision of EU R&I policy related to these three focus areas for 2050 and describing three complementary pathways to reaching the vision. The purpose of the forward looking activities is to give an overview of the emerging synergies and trade-offs between the focus areas, anticipate their development in alternative future scenarios and give recommendations for reaching a desired future state. The methodology described consists of three tasks: stocktaking, vision scoping and multiregime framework for scenarios. Stocktaking is part of the RECREATE knowledge base and the key basis for the other forward looking activities. The purpose is to describe the history and present state of R&I policy related to the linkages between resource efficiency, raw materials and climate action on the member state and EU level. In the vision scoping task a vision for the EU R&I policy related to the three focus areas in 2050 will be developed jointly with stakeholders in a series of workshops. The purpose is to create a shared understanding of the desired direction and the transitions needed as well as identify and discuss divergent views. The multiregime framework for scenarios will then describe three complementary paths towards the vision. In addition to these three tasks, forward looking activities also include trend analysis, but it is described in a separate deliverable. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 5

6 Table of contents General Information... 3 Authors... 3 WP5 Partners... 3 Contact... 3 Abstract... 4 Executive summary... 5 Table of contents... 6 List of annexes... 7 List of pictures and graphs... 8 Abbreviations The conceptual framework for forward looking activities and RECREATE General conceptual framework for RECREATE project Transition analysis of European research system within MLP framework Outline of RECREATE impact analysis logic Overview of the forward looking activities Overall objective Theoretical background Tasks and their interrelation Process of the forward looking activities Stocktaking Vision scoping Multiregime framework for scenarios Description of the multiregime framework Scenario process Baseline scenario Conclusion and next steps References Annexes Annex 1 Key commission representatives to be interviewed [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 6

7 List of annexes Annex 1. Key commission representatives to be interviewed [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 7

8 List of pictures and graphs Figure 1. General outline of the conceptual framework Figure 2. General framework for illustrating system transition Figure 3. Value chains in the socio-economic and environmental systems Figure 4. Example of illustrating interlinks and various resource and emission flows (Mugdal et al. 2012) Figure 5. Interrelations between the focus areas Figure 6. System transition within the general RECREATE framework Figure 7. Phases of transition Figure 8. Transition in RECREATE Figure 9. Changes and logic of impacts in the transition Figure 10. The futures triangle. Adapted from Inayatullah, Figure 11. Tasks and their interrelation in forward looking activities Figure 12. Overall process of the Forward Looking Activities Figure 13. Emerging innovations in a multi-regime framework (Raven and Verbong 2010) Figure 14. Typology of the interaction between the regimes (Raven & Verbong 2010) Figure 15. Emergence of a new multi-regime (adapted from VTT Strada project) Figure 16. Presenting scenarios in MLP frame Figure 17. Example of a regime assessment [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 8

9 Abbreviations BAT FLA GHG IPP IPPC LCA MLP NGO PESTEV RTD RTDI SD WEEE Best available techniques Forward looking activities Greenhouse gas Integrated product policy Integrated pollution prevention and control Life cycle assessment Multi-level perspective Non-governmental organisations Political, economic, social, technological, environmental and values Research, technology, development Research, technology, development, innovations Sustainable development Waste electrical and electronic equipment [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 9

10 1 The conceptual framework for forward looking activities and RECREATE This chapter introduces the conceptual framework for the RECREATE project. The conceptual framework helps to perceive linkages and dynamic interrelations between relevant actors, factors and systems of RECREATE project. The EU research area is quite often fragmented between topics and actors. The fragmentation is recognized as a challenge also in the three focus areas of the RECREATE 1 project, climate action, raw materials and resource efficiency. The aim of RECREATE project is to overcome this fragmentation, and to create a clear cut research agenda for the Horizon 2020 priority of climate change, raw materials and resource efficiency. In the creation of research agenda RECREATE project uses an RTD perspective for a transition management strategy that (a) looks at the trade-offs and synergies between raw materials, resource efficiency and climate change mitigation, (b) engages key stakeholders in a pro-active manner, and (c) has a perspective beyond the year The tasks of the RECREATE project, as identified in the research plan is (1) to collect and analyse strategic information about medium and long term research and innovation trends and prospects, and (2) to carry out forward looking analysis in the three focus areas, raw materials, resource efficiency and climate action. Moreover, the study (3) will develop and monitor indicators to assess the impact (policy, economy, society, sustainability) of EU research and innovation cooperation in the three focus areas and their interlinkages, and (4) analyse technology, policy and market developments and policies and programmes as a base for forward looking activities (foresight). The conceptual framework helps to perceive linkages and dynamic interrelations between relevant actors, factors and systems of RECREATE project. By clarifying these interconnections the framework supports the detailed design and execution of work packages and subtasks of the project. The general holistic context of the RECREATE project is Sustainable Development (SD) in which the detailed elements and sub-systems are as follows. Within the context of the SD environmental (or earth) system forms an overarching framework for the RECREATE project. In the environmental framework the socio-economic system consists of actors and processes extracting, harvesting and using raw-materials and environmental resources and causing climate change. Extraction and processing of raw-materials and resources take place in value chains of production and consumption systems. The sustainable solutions of extraction and processing of raw-materials and resources are supported by life-cycle assessment, which largely follows the logic of business value chains. The search for innovative solutions in the three focus areas of RECREATE of production and consumption system will be analysed within the innovation eco-system. The relations of these five system levels form the first general outline of the conceptual framework as described in figure 1 below. Figure 1. General outline of the conceptual framework The system transition from the current regime with fragmented European R&I in the three focus areas to the new regime with more integrated R&I will be considered within the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework 1 REsearch network for forward looking activities and assessment of research and innovation prospects in the fields of Climate, Resource Efficiency and raw materials [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 10

11 which makes a distinction between changes at the landscape level, regime level and niche level (Geels, 2002). Accordingly, the MLP framework, within the overarching environmental system and socio-economic system, forms the second general outline of the conceptual RECREATE framework illustrating the system transition. Figure 2. General framework for illustrating system transition. The following description of a conceptual framework presents more detailed structure of elements and systems of these two outlines. 1.1 General conceptual framework for RECREATE project The established concept of sustainable development (SD) is a general holistic framework for RECREATE project and the project follows the principles of SD throughout the exercise, and identifies the environmental (or earth) system as an overarching framework for the project. Within the environmental system the focus of RECREATE project is on the socio-economic system consisting of actors and processes extracting, harvesting and using raw-materials and environmental resources, contributing to climate change by emitting greenhouse gases. Extraction, harvesting and use of resources occur by economic activities in production and consumption system. The investigation of sustainable solutions of production and consumption system is supported by life-cycle assessment (LCA) and respective methodologies. In tangible industries business value chains follow largely the logic of LCA throughout life cycle of raw-material and resource circulation. Different phases of LCA frame illustrate material circulation from exploitation of natural resources via production, consumption conversion, distribution and re-using and recycling to emissions and wastes, and industrial value of companies originates and grows along various life cycle stages between companies (figure 3). Life-cycle thinking and LCA methodology is an established approach supporting sustainable policy-making in industrialized economies. Life-cycle thinking is integrated in EU policies (e.g. Integrated Product Policy, IPP) and directives such as waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE, 4 July 2012). LCA aspects are considered in reference material of Best Available Techniques (BAT- BREFs) adopted under IPPC Directive (2008/1/EC). BAT-BREF material also consists of material of innovation potentials of different industrial sectors. Value chain is a conventional approach in analysing value creation in management literature. Value chain may refer to the internal value creation process of a company (e.g. Porter 1985) or common industrial level value creation process between companies in upstream and downstream in supply chains (e.g. Special Issue 15 of Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 16, October 2008). The integrated analysis consisting of both LCA analysis and value chain analysis is relatively scarce in the literature. Some studies however have developed frameworks by integrating these two approaches (e.g. Hagelaar and van der Vorst 2001; Matos and Hall 2007; Seuring and Müller 2008). [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 11

12 Figure 3. Value chains in the socio-economic and environmental systems. The attainment of sustainable production and consumption patterns requires RTD activities and related various innovations whether technological, behavioural, social, related to services, or so - in all phases of life-cycle and business value chains. In RTD and innovation chain literature the focus has been both in internal innovation processes of firms (e.g. Kline and Rosenberg 1986) and in innovation processes between companies within value chains (Nidumolu, Prahalad and Rangaswami 2009). Innovation eco-system approach gives a modern context for the analysis of sustainable solutions throughout production and consumption systems 2. In the RECREATE project the interest in RTD and innovation analysis is in the three focus areas - raw materials, resource efficiency and climate action and their interrelations and related RTD activities in the EU and Member States. One point of departure of RECREATE project is the recognition that RTD and RTD activities and research collaboration in the focus areas of raw materials, resource efficiency and climate action is fragmented in the European Union and Member States. The study Assessment of resource efficiency indicators and targets, commissioned by DG Environment of EU, BIO Intelligence Service (Mugdal et al. 2012), presenting a framework for resource efficiency indicators, describes also the links between water and land resources, materials and energy, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The study analyses these interrelations and interdependencies of salient materials and resources by taking into account also GHG emissions. By identifying interlinks and various resource and emission flows between RECREATE focus areas, raw-materials, natural resources and climate change, BIO IS study is a valuable exercise for RECREATE analysis (Figure 4. shows one example of figures of BIO-IS study). 2 Carayannis and Campbell (2009) give an example of definition of innovation eco-system: `Mode 3 innovation eco-system is a multi-layered, multi-modal, multi-nodal and multi-lateral system, encompassing mutually complementary and reinforcing innovation networks and knowledge clusters consisting of human and intellectual capital, shaped by social capital and underpinned by financial capital. See also Moore s seminal article Predators and prey: a new ecology of competition, Harvard Business Review 71 (3), [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 12

13 Figure 4. Example of illustrating interlinks and various resource and emission flows (Mugdal et al. 2012) The precise focus of BIO IS study differs from RECREATE but it can be considered as useful material for illustrative purposes in RECREATE project. By natural resources the BIO IS study refers to materials (biotic and abiotic), energy (fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables), air, water and land (spatial dimension including terrestrial, inland water and sea areas). When placed into the RECREATE context of environmental and socioeconomic systems BIO IS framework well illustrates three focus areas of RECREATE project and the links in between these areas. While the focus areas of BIO IS study are not precisely in the focus areas of the RECREATE project, the respective frame of RECREATE areas must be developed accordingly. Figure 5 however illustrates nicely the links between BIO IS focus areas benefitting the corresponding analysis in the RECREATE project. One objective of RECREATE is to intensify European RTD and innovation activities between the focus areas of raw materials, resource efficiency and climate action. A versatile intensive RTD between focus areas probably leads to such impacts as perception of gaps in existing RTD programs in borderlines of focus areas, overlapping or doubling RTD efforts and programs and funding, and also identification of related new relevant RTD areas. Research in new identified areas may in turn lead to identification of new private and public actions and policies and interventions till the year In some RECREATE focus areas steps towards more integrated research mode may already occur for example before Hence since then, after the impact of European research to private and public actions and innovations, these actions in turn lead to more efficient raw-material and resource use and practices, consequent reduction of greenhouse gases, and finally both to positive impacts in the state of natural environment and also positive socio-economic impacts for example in health and welfare of European citizens. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 13

14 Figure 5. Interrelations between the focus areas. 1.2 Transition analysis of European research system within MLP framework The aim of the RECREATE project is to contribute to the transformation from the fragmented European research and research collaboration in the three focus areas to the integrated research and research collaboration in the future in the EU and Member States. In the RECREATE project this transition will be analysed within Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework. MLP framework consists of three interrelated dimensions, landscape, socio-technical regime and niche innovations. The project analyses the system transition from the current regime with fragmented research in RECREATE focus areas to the new regime of integrated research within the MLP framework. In the new regime a more integrated and intensive research and research collaboration create conditions for a more efficient and sustainable use of raw-materials and natural resources and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in the future. Example of MLP analysis, actors and interactions by Foxon et al. (2010) technological changes arise through the dynamic interactions between a range of actors with different perspectives and goals. Their decisions and behavior are likely to be key influences on how to get from here to a radically different low carbon there and need to be understood if effective policy strategies and instruments are to be developed. Our starting point is that frameworks developed to examine past system transitions and guide management of future transitions could usefully be applied to understanding the changing roles, influences and opportunities of actors, both large and small, in the dynamics of future energy transitions. Our approach builds on the multi-level perspective (MLP) for analysing the dynamics of transitions, developed primarily by Dutch researchers [1 4]. This research combines technical, social and historical analysis of and insights into past and current transitions, using an analytical framework based on interactions between three levels: technological niches, socio-technical regimes, and landscapes. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 14

15 Multi-Level Perspective approach illustrates landscape changes affecting socio-economic (on the political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legislative dimensions) and technological regimes (actors, norms, institutions, culture ). Socio-economic and technological regime consist of planning, learning, decision-making, actions and implementation of actions and policies aimed at integrating sustainable development and Research, Technology, Development and Innovations (RTDI), as well as decision-making aimed at shift from current socio-technical system in targeted time horizon to new socio-technical system. Definitions MLP framework examples Landscape: broader political, social and cultural values and institutions that form the deep structural relationships of a society and only change slowly (Foxon et al. 2010). Socio-technical landscape: external factors and processes such as political decisions or emerging societal trends that can put pressure on existing regimes and create windows of opportunities for niche innovations (Raven & Verbong 2007) Socio-technical regime: the prevailing set of routines or practices that actors and institutions use and that create and reinforce a particular technological system; these practices include: engineering practices; production process technologies; product characteristics, skills and procedures [ ]embedded in institutions and infrastructures (Foxon et al. 2010). Socio-technical regime: a set of rules, embedded in technological artefacts and social networks, which together fulfill a societal function (Geels 2002). rules is used to emphasize that not only cognitive engineering routines (such as search heuristics) guide activities, but also laws, industry standards, social norms and values, protocols etc. So a socio-technical regime also includes rules related to intermediary activities (such as distribution of goods and services, market transactions, and user activities (Raven & Verbong 2007) Whereas the existing regime generates incremental innovation, radical innovations are generated in niches, which are spaces that are at least partially insulated from normal market selection in the regime, for example, specialized sectors or market locations. (Foxon et al. 2010). Niches provide places for learning processes to occur, and space to build up the social networks that support innovations, such as supply chains and user producer relationships. (Foxon et al. 2010). Transition pathways arise through the dynamic interaction of technological and social factors at and between these different levels (Foxon et al. 2010). Figure 6 illustrates the system transition within the general RECREATE framework (based on Foxon 2010). The planning and implementation of actions in transition process will be carried out in collaboration of all key actors and stakeholders. The analysis consists of three dimensions, landscape, socio-technical regime and niche innovations. As in previous MLP studies, also in RECREATE projects MLP approach consists of certain important elements (see e.g. Geels 2002, Eerola and Loikkanen 2009). For example, small networks of actors will support the development of solutions for actions of sustainable raw-material, resource efficiency and climate change mitigation on the basis of expectations and visions of various stakeholder communities. Mutual learning processes and co-construction of the new technologies take place in multiple dimensions, with efforts to link different elements in a seamless web (e.g. demonstrations of new tech applications, together with the required infrastructure). The transition takes place in subsequent phases of pre-development, take-off, acceleration and stabilization which may be supported by corresponding policy measures and instruments (Figure 7). [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 15

16 Figure 6. System transition within the general RECREATE framework Figure 7. Phases of transition. The State-of-the-Art today is that research of raw-materials, resource efficiency and climate action is fragmented as is the research collaboration in the EU and Member States in these areas. Landscape-level pressures have arisen and are recognized by the EU in terms of the need of intensifying research between raw-materials, resource efficiency and climate action. Moreover external influences on niches via expectations and networks (international platforms, sustainability campaigns by NGOs, etc.) are arising to push actions towards more intensive collaboration of research in these areas. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 16

17 1.3 Outline of RECREATE impact analysis logic While the focus of the RECREATE project is the fragmented research and research collaboration in the areas of raw materials, resource efficiency and climate action in the European Union and Member States, the expected transition is mainly related to the shift of moving from fragmented research and research collaboration to more integrated and intensive research and research collaboration in the RECREATE focus areas (figure 8). As in some focus areas progress towards more integrated research may occur well before 2050, having impact on new private and public actions and policies in focus areas, also the impacts of these new actions may lead to positive environmental and socio-economic impacts well before So the question in RECREATE project is not only of the transition to more integrated research mode between the three focus areas but also, by utilising research results, of the transition towards more sustainable rawmaterial, resource and climate change development via concrete actions. Figure 8. Transition in RECREATE Gradually in due course impacts of a more integrated research start to appear: breakthroughs of new configurations such as energy solutions, taking advantage of windows of opportunity in all RECREATE focus areas. Corresponding adjustments occur in socio-technical regime (e.g. various raw-material and resource efficiency services, etc.). Finally the targeted State-of-the-Art will realize partly evidently already well before 2050 when European research concept of raw-materials, resource efficiency and climate action is optimally integrated and intensive as is the related research collaboration in the EU and Member States. What follows is the impact on results of RECREATE research on new private and public actions and policies in focus areas, and gradually, as impacts also of these actions, positive environmental and socio-economic impacts. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 17

18 Figure 9. Changes and logic of impacts in the transition. To sum up, RECREATE project is about transition from fragmented research in three focus areas and related fragmented research collaboration, and consequent incoherent support from research to private and public actions and policies in the EU and Member States to integrated research concept of three focus areas and related intensive research collaboration, and consequent significant support from research to private and public actions and policy-making in the EU and Member States. Hence RECREATE project is not only about the transition towards more integrated research mode of three focus areas but also, via utilising RECREATE research results, about the transition towards more sustainable raw-material, resource and climate change development via concrete private and public actions of the EU and the Member States. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 18

19 2 Overview of the forward looking activities 2.1 Overall objective The goal of the RECREATE project is to overcome the fragmentation in the areas of climate change, raw materials and resource efficiency. The forward looking analyses helps in achieving this by drafting a vision of EU R&I policy related to these three focus areas for 2050 and describing three complementary views to reaching the vision. The purpose of the forward looking activities is to give an overview of the emerging synergies and trade-offs between the focus areas, anticipate their development in alternative future scenarios and give recommendations for reaching a desired future state. 2.2 Theoretical background The methodology is based on two main pillars: foresight and transition management. Foresight is systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at enabling present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions. (European foresight platform, 2014). Foresight aims to anticipate and explore different future developments in order to guide and create action in the present. One way to illustrate the different parts of the foresight process is through the futures triangle (figure 10) of looking at the weight of the past, push of the present and pull of the futures (Inayatullah, 2006). The first part of a foresight process is looking at the weight of the past, taking into account path dependency and historical developments that influence the relations between stakeholders and justify the reasons for the current situation. In the RECREATE project this is done in the stocktaking task. The second part is identifying the push of the present, meaning the current trajectories, commitments, intentions and trends that guide the present action. This will be done mainly in the trend analysis task. The tasks in WP4 will also provide information about both the weight of the past as well as the push of the present. These include impact assessments on key issues for the Horizon 2020 strategy, analysis of relevant indicators over time and a scoreboard for the tracking of performances across member states and main markets. The third part is describing the pull of the futures, meaning the different images of futures. In RECREATE this is done in the vision scoping task, where a description of a desired future state is developed. Figure 10. The futures triangle. Adapted from Inayatullah, The second theoretical pillar for our methodology is transition management, which describes the dynamics of transition of a sociotechnical system. Here especially the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) (Geels, 2002) is a [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 19

20 key frame for illustrating the changes that happen at the landscape level, regime level or niche level. However, since the focus of RECREATE is on the linkages, synergies and trade-offs between the focus areas of climate action, resource efficiency and raw materials, there exists no one regime which will change. Rather, we are looking at a multi-regime and the emergence of a possible new regime. Therefore the MLP model will be applied rather loosely. 2.3 Tasks and their interrelation There are four tasks in the forward looking activities: stocktaking (formerly framework), trend analysis, vision scoping and scenarios. Stocktaking aggregates the existing knowledge to produce a better understanding of the present situation and the reasons behind it. It will identify the key actors, drivers and barriers and the logic and behaviour of the current system. Trend analysis focuses on the current trajectories and analyses both the external pressures and internal drivers affecting the developments in the three focus areas. Vision scoping defines a common vision for 2050 together with the stakeholders and scenarios describe different paths towards this vision. Figure 11 illustrates the outputs and interrelations of the tasks. The scoreboard and indicator tasks from WP4 will provide information about the development of key trends and list of key factors, respectively. Figure 11. Tasks and their interrelation in forward looking activities. 2.4 Process of the forward looking activities Figure 12 presents the process and rough schedule of the forward looking activities. As trend analysis is reported in deliverable 2.4, it is not included in the picture. However, it will be parallel to all forward looking activities and support the creation of the vision and scenarios. In 2014 the focus is on stocktaking and creating a preliminary vision. The stocktaking will be done during the spring and summer as desk research divided among partners. An initial version of the vision will be done by the end of the year based on group interviews of key commission representatives. In 2015 the focus will be on creating the first versions of the scenarios via desk research and stakeholder interaction. The vision will also be discussed and refined with the stakeholders and 2017 will focus on refining the scenarios and vision and developing recommendations based on the results. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 20

21 Figure 12. Overall process of the Forward Looking Activities. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 21

22 3 Stocktaking Stocktaking is part of the RECREATE knowledge base together with the list of indicators, trend analysis and scoreboard. It is the key basis for the other forward looking activities. The purpose is to describe the history and present state of R&I policy related to the linkages between resource efficiency, raw materials and climate action on the member state and EU level. Because of the broadness and complexity of the RECREATE context, the stocktaking will focus on key policy initiatives in selected countries. For each country, three stories of policy initiatives will be described, ideally one focusing on a past, one on the present and one on forthcoming policy developments. The idea is to analyse the success factors and barriers through these focused stories and gain new insights from the details. The story format will also help in describing the logic of why a policy initiative was successful or not: what was the context and what can be learned. The stocktaking will focus on the synergies, trade-offs and linkages between the RECREATE focus areas with an emphasis on research and innovation policy initiatives. The stories should include descriptions of the relevant actors, funders, objectives, expected outcomes and impacts, budget and duration. To help guide the making of the stories, a list of questions will be developed. An initial list includes the following questions: What happened and why? Who are the actors? Have the relevant actors been involved? What kind of stakeholders there are? What are the barriers, drivers and success factors? What can be learned? In addition, if possible some quantitative facts, such as the budget of the policy initiative, will be included to help comparing the stories. The stocktaking is linked to other tasks in RECREATE such as impact assessment (providing comparison points), indicator identification (giving context to the indicators), stakeholder analysis (complementing the stakeholder list and describing the relations between key stakeholders) and trend analysis (identifying the key issues to consider). The stocktaking template and guidelines will reflect the need for these contributions. The stocktaking will be done for selected EU and non-eu countries ensuring sufficient geographical and focus area coverage. The stocktaking will be done during 2014 jointly by the RECREATE partners. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 22

23 4 Vision scoping A vision can be defined as a compelling statement of the preferred future that an organisation or community wants to create (Kuosa, 2012, p. 32). In RECREATE a vision for the EU R&I policy related to the three focus areas in 2050 will be developed jointly with stakeholders in a series of workshops. The purpose is to create a shared understanding of the desired direction and the transitions needed. The vision scoping will combine a baseline scenario, created within the RECREATE consortium, the first RECREATE workshop group work, other smaller workshops and face-to-face interviews of key commission representatives (see Annex 2 for the list of commission representatives). The work process starts with the creation of a baseline scenario, emerging from the RECREATE focus area roadmaps, strategies and other policy documents. The baseline scenario will be created with the help of the Transition framework tool (Figure 13), as desktop study. Future oriented statements from climate, resource efficiency and raw material policy documents will be organized according to the different categories in the Transition frame. The baseline scenario needs to answer to the question: What are the changes, barriers and actors in current EU R&I strategy related to environment, technologies, society, economy, policy/legislation, and values? This characterization of the current commission view of R&I futures will then be elaborated, in a narrative format, into a baseline scenario against which vision and alternative future paths can be viewed. At this point, the baseline scenario will be subjected to revisions from the RECREATE consortium. What is more, the RECREATE stakeholder workshop will be utilized in collecting a broader view on the future R&I activities in addition to what has been found from policy documents. Figure 13. Template for deepening the vision (adapted from VTT SAM project). The RECREATE workshop on vision scoping will employ a customized PESTEV (policy, economic, social, technological, environmental, values) time frame exercise (Figure 14). The participants are asked to fill in a time frame on R&I policy between 1970 and To facilitate a smooth workshop, the PESTEV frame will be filled in with examples of past R&I policy programmes and initiatives, leaving the future for the participants to fill in. On the vertical axis, policy indicates substantial EU level legislative factors, such as the establishment of the waste framework directive. Economy, in turn, may include financial incentives and programmes, society may include deliberative actions such as the VOICES project or the World Wide Views on Global Warming. In the Technology part of the PESTEV frame, also innovations can be included in addition to programmes. The Environment part may include programmes such as LIFE, and values are for instance social responsibility programmes. Once the PESTEV and the Transition frames are obtained, the vision scoping will continue with face-to-face interviews and small workshops with the commission. The interaction with the commission will be [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 23

24 consultative, i.e. the commission representatives are asked to give their view on the baseline scenario and why it may point towards a wrong direction. In addition, the outcome of the commission exercise will be articulated visions of where the EU R&I policy should be headed instead of what the baseline indicates. Based on the interaction, a draft vision will be developed that is then refined with a broader group of stakeholders in the RECREATE workshops. Figure 14. Vision scoping template (adapted from VTT SAM project). [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 24

25 5 Multiregime framework for scenarios 5.1 Description of the multiregime framework The three focus areas in RECREATE (climate, raw materials, resource efficiency) can be seen as their own regimes, when it comes to research, research policy and other related policies. Therefore the MLP frame, which is meant for analysing the transition of one regime, needs to be broadened to cover the synergies, trade-offs and conflicts between the focus areas of RECREATE. It is this in-between of the regimes and the emergence of a new regime that the RECREATE scenarios and vision will explore. New innovations can be seen to emerge as the interplay between the regimes (see figure 15). Figure 13. Emerging innovations in a multi-regime framework (Raven and Verbong 2010). Raven and Verbong (2010) have developed a typology of the interaction between two socio-technical regimes based on empirical analyses (figure 16), which will serve as a theoretical background for the multiregime analysis. The typology describes four different interactions between the regimes: competition, symbiosis, integration and spill-over. There is competition between the regimes, if they have common functions. In other words they may produce competing products or services or compete for the same resources. An example would be the competition in farmland between food and energy production. In a symbiosis the regimes benefit from the different functions of the other regime. The regimes thus complement each other. An example is the use of waste from food production as input to energy production. Integration describes the merging of the regimes in a way that the original regimes disappear, evolving into a new regime. An example could be a service ecosystem of bioeconomy, where the defining factors for the development of the regime is not raw material, but service. Spill-over is defined as a function or activity that is transferred from one regime to another. Here an example could be to adopt and apply practices from the ICT-regime to e.g. bioeconomy. It is worth noting that the examples given here are on the substance level, not on the level of research or research and innovation policy, which is of interest in the RECREATE project. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 25

26 Figure 14. Typology of the interaction between the regimes (Raven & Verbong 2010) With this typology in mind, we analyse and explore the possible pathways towards the vision of integrating the regimes of climate action, resource efficiency and raw materials in the three scenarios. Figure 15. Emergence of a new multi-regime (adapted from VTT Strada project) 5.2 Scenario process In RECREATE the scenario process differs somewhat from a typical scenario exercise, in that the scenarios will provide alternative and complementary views on how to reach the vision. This means that the scenarios will not be based on best case worst case business as usual structure or similar. Instead, the scenarios will have different emphases; they are weighted by factors such as the market, industry, civil society, the economy, research and innovation policies and other related policies. Together they will give an overall view on what changes are needed in order to reach the vision. The scenarios will be based on the material gathered by the indicator, stocktaking, scoreboard and trend analysis tasks. The key factors that will be analysed in the scenarios are identified using the results from these tasks. Stocktaking will provide insights into the logic by which different actors behave in the system. Trend analysis will highlight key issues and their assumed development. The initial scenarios will be generated by researchers after the initial vision and the baseline scenario has been drafted. However, the RECREATE stakeholder network is central in refining and deepening the scenarios. Here the Transition framework tool (figure 13) will be used to structure the changes with the PESTEV frame. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 26

27 The draft scenarios will eventually be enriched to narratives of the pathways toward the vision, with intermediary steps described. The scenarios will be illustrated using a modified MLP frame. An example is given in figure 18. Figure 16. Presenting scenarios in MLP frame. A key aspect in the scenario process is the regime assessment tool (Figure 17). The most important part of the process is the definition of current regimes, that highlight the R&I policy of climate action, raw materials and resource efficiency. Once the current regimes are described, the next step will be to look for enablers that move the system towards a new regime or new alternative regimes. The development path towards the new regime will form the backbone of the scenarios, which are the main deliverable of WP5. Different emphasis is then given to the scenario by using the view point of research, R&I policy and other related policies. Figure 17. Example of a regime assessment [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 27

28 5.3 Baseline scenario A baseline scenario is needed by the impact assessment in WP4 but it also serves as a central piece of work that guides the scenario development and the whole RECREATE view on R&I. The baseline scenario will be done in addition to the three scenarios focused on reaching the vision. The baseline scenario will be done using existing strategies and roadmaps done on the EU level on the three focus areas (see Section 4 on Vision scoping). The baseline scenario will therefore describe the direction set by the EU with regards to the three focus areas separately. However, the Transition framework tool allows the focus areas to be presented as layers containing same categories and variables. The three scenarios describing the paths to the vision can be reflected against this baseline to identify discrepancies and draw recommendations. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 28

29 6 Conclusion and next steps This document has described both the overall conceptual framework for analysing the interactions, tradeoffs, synergies and bottlenecks of R&I policy on the three focus areas of climate action, resource efficiency and raw materials, and the methodology for creating scenarios and vision related to them. A major challenge in the RECREATE project is to keep the focus on the interaction and the in-between of the three focus areas and not to analyse them separately. The conceptual framework aims to help in achieving that. Likewise the forward looking activities are aimed at looking at the three focus areas and their interaction as a whole by producing a vision for the integration of the focus areas and three complementary scenarios to reaching that vision. The forward looking activities of the RECREATE project will begin with the stocktaking in April 2014 and continue with vision scoping, trend analysis and scenario elaboration. The forward looking activities will produce three deliverables on the scenarios, as well as mid-term reports documenting the process. The conceptual frame and methodology described will be beneficial also for other researchers as well as policy makers hoping to anticipate and give guidance in a situation integrating different regimes or domains. More specifically, the conceptual frame will be useful in other projects aiming to look at policies, research and innovation related to climate action, resource efficiency and raw material. In addition, the participatory forward looking methods and the multiregime framework described are applicable in other grand challenge driven foresight projects. [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 29

30 7 References Carayannis, E.G., and Campbell, D.F.J. 2009, 'Mode 3'and'Quadruple Helix': toward a 21st century fractal innovation ecosystem. International Journal of Technology Management vol. 46 no. 3, pp Eerola, A., and Loikkanen, T. 2009, Governance and Research of Nordic Energy System Transition. Summary Report of the GoReNEST project. European foresight platform 2014, What is foresight. Available: Accessed: Foxon, T. J., Hammond, G.P. and Pearson, P.J.G. 2010, Developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK. Technological Forecasting and Social Change vol. 77 no. 8, pp Geels, F.W. 2002, "Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study", Research policy, vol. 31, no. 8, pp Hagelaar, G. and van der Vorst, J. 2001, Environmental supply chain management: using life cycle assessment to structure supply chains. The International Food and Agribusiness Management Review vol. 4 no.4, pp Inayatullah, S. 2006, "Anticipatory action learning: Theory and practice", Futures, vol. 38, no. 6, pp Kline, S.J. and Rosenberg, N. 1986, An overview of innovation. In The positive sum strategy: Harnessing technology for economic growth. Kuosa, T. 2012, The evolution of strategic foresight: navigating public policy making, Gower Publishing, Ltd. Matos, S. and Hall, J. 2007, Integrating sustainable development in the supply chain: the case of life cycle assessment in oil and gas and agricultural biotechnology. Journal of Operations Management vol. 25 no. 6, pp Moore, J.F. 1993, Predators and prey: a new ecology of competition. Harvard business review vol. 71 no. 3, pp Mudgal, S., Tan, A., Lockwood, S., Eisenmenger, N., Fischer-Kowalski, M., Giljum, S. and Brucker, M. 2012, Assessment of Resource Efficiency Indicators and Targets. Final Report. European Commission - DG Environment, BIO Intelligence Service. Nidumolu, R, Prahalad, C.K. and Rangaswami M.R. 2009, Why Sustainability Is Now the Key Driver of Innovation. Harvard business review vol. 87 no. 9, pp Porter, M.E. 1985, Competitive advantage: creating and sustaining superior performance. Raven, R., & Verbong, G. 2007, Multi-regime interactions in the Dutch energy sector: The case of combined heat and power technologies in the Netherlands Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, vol. 19, no.4, pp Seuring, S. and Müller, M. 2008, From a literature review to a conceptual framework for sustainable supply chain management. Journal of cleaner production, vol. 16, no. 15, pp [Section title Only if section breaks are used] 30