Foresight in Nordic Innovation Systems

Transcription

1 April 2007 Foresight in Nordic Innovation Systems Creation and operation of a Nordic Foresight Forum Identification of good practices for foresight in the Nordic countries Authors: Per Dannemand Andersen, Mads Borup, Kristian Borch, Jari Kaivo-oja, Annele Eerola, Thorvald Finnbjörnsson, Erik Øverland, E. Anders Eriksson, Thomas Malmér and Bengt A. Mölleryd

2 Authors Danmark Risø National Laboratory Per Dannemand Andersen Mads Borup Kristian Borch Finland FFRC (Finland Futures Research Centre) Jari Kaivo-oja VTT Annele Eerola Iceland RANNIS Thorvald Finnbjörnsson Norway SUBITO! Research&Futures Erik Øverland Sweden FOI, The Swedish Defence Research Institute E. Anders Eriksson IVA, Kungl. Ingenjörsvetenskapsakademien (Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences) Thomas Malmér Bengt A. Mölleryd A number of governmental organizations have also participated in the project, but without being responsible for the final report: Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (DK), Danish Board of Technology (DK), Ministry of Trade and Industry (FIN), SITRA (FIN), RANNÍS (IS), Research Council of Norway (NO), Innovation Norway (NO), VINNOVA (SE). 1

3 Title: Foresight in Nordic Innovation Systems. Nordic Innovation Centre project number: P04270 Author(s): Per Dannemand Andersen 1, Mads Borup 1, Kristian Borch 1, Jari Kaivo-oja 2, Annele Eerola 3, Thorvald Finnbjörnsson 4, Erik Øverland 5, E. Anders Eriksson 6, Thomas Malmér 7, Bengt A. Mölleryd 7. Institution(s): 1. Risø National Laboratory, Denmark, 2. FFRC (Finland Futures Research Centre), Finland, 3.VTT, Finland, 4. RANNÍS Consult, Iceland, 5. SUBITO! Research&Futures, Norway, 6. FOI, The Swedish Defence Research Institute, Sweden, 7. IVA, Kungl. Ingenjörsvetenskapsakademien (Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences), Sweden A number of governmental organizations have also participated in the project, but without being responsible for the final report: Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (DK), Danish Board of Technology (DK), Ministry of Trade and Industry (FIN), SITRA (FIN), RANNÍS (IS), Research Council of Norway (NO), Innovation Norway (NO), VINNOVA (SE). Abstract: (max 250 words) All Nordic countries face the challenge of selecting subjects for foresight projects and future initiatives within science and technology. However, the foresight landscape the Nordic countries is quite fragmented; various approaches have been taken by foresight actors for exercises with differing areas of focus. To meet the challenges presented by foresight projects in Nordic countries, the Nordic Foresight Forum project has two main objectives. To create and operate a Nordic Foresight Forum where foresight practitioners and researchers from a number of different organizations can exchange their experience and ideas. To identify good practices for foresight in the Nordic countries. These will form the basis for decisions and investment with regard to science and technology; for example, innovation policy and priorities in research or technological development. The overall aim of the project is to strengthen the Nordic Innovation Area, to increase the weight of input by Nordic countries in discussions in Europe, and to focus on Nordicness in a global world. The present report map Nordic foresight activities and foresight actors as well as the use of and needs for foresight in research and innovation council systems. The report discuss the challenges of innovation policy and the possible roles of foresight exercises benefiting the Nordic Research and Innovation Area before arriving at a number of recommendations for foresight at Nordic level in general and for the NICe specifically. Topic/NICe Focus Area: Foresight ISSN: Language: EN Pages: 58 Key words: Foresight, Innovation, Policy, Nordic Distributed by: Nordic Innovation Centre Stensberggata 25 NO-0170 Oslo Norway Contact person: Per Dannemand Andersen Risø National Laboratory P. O. Box 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark Per.dannemand@risoe.dk 2

4 Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT HOW THE WORK WAS CARRIED OUT CONTENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THIS REPORT FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION UPDATE ON NORDIC FORESIGHT ACTORS AND FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES GOVERNMENTAL FORESIGHT ACTORS FORESIGHT ACTORS IN UNIVERSITIES AND RESEARCH INSTITUTES PRIVATE-SECTOR FORESIGHT ACTORS RECENT FORESIGHT STUDIES IN NORDIC COUNTRIES NORDIC FORESIGHT CO-OPERATION RESEARCH AND INNOVATION COUNCILS IN THE INNOVATION SYSTEM CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES TO RESEARCH AND INNOVATION COUNCILS AN OVERVIEW OF NATIONAL AND NORDIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION COUNCIL SYSTEMS THE NEED FOR FORESIGHT IN RESEARCH AND INNOVATION COUNCILS THE FRAMING, CONTENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF FORESIGHT STUDIES FRAMING OF FORESIGHT THE CONTENT OF FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IMPLEMENTATION OF FORESIGHT STUDIES: USES AND USEFULNESS CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ADDED VALUE OF FORESIGHT AT THE NORDIC LEVEL RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE NICE AND OTHER NORDIC KEY ACTORS REFERENCES

5 1 Executive summary 1.1 Background and objectives of the project In the globalized knowledge economy, with increased industrial and economic competition, intense pressure is put on companies to be adaptable and innovative. Public-sector organizations are also under pressure to innovate. This indicates that both private and public decision-makers must cope with rapid technological developments by anticipating new opportunities and threats. The search for proper tools that can create strategic intelligence in decision-making systems has intensified. In this context foresight exercises are regarded as effective tools for connecting elements of the innovation system. Foresight exercises often have the aim of catching the future. However, foresight often comprises projections or explorations of different futures and alternatives, based on insights from today s knowledge and expectations of the future. Foresight exercises in many cases use expert-qualified estimates of technological development. The process of foresight also includes understanding the opportunities and possibilities of a technology, however uncertain, as well as the pitfalls. Therefore the foresight process is also a way to define the system and constitution of the field with regards to stakeholders and incumbents, system boundaries, possible consequences and impacts of the field and its development, and, lastly if the primary goals and objectives are met a roadmap for choosing the desired way and balance to attain the potential benefits, and minimize or exclude possible negative outcomes for the stakeholders. The success of foresight is in the outcome; that is, the implementation of foresight knowledge in policies, strategies and actions. All Nordic countries (and also Nordic-level bodies) face the challenge of selecting subjects for foresight projects and future initiatives within science and technology. However, among the Nordic countries only Sweden has had a large-scale and broad-scope national-level foresight exercise similar to those in UK, Japan and Germany, complemented with more focused foresight exercises on selected topics. The foresight landscape of the other Nordic countries is more fragmented; various approaches have been taken by foresight actors for exercises with differing areas of focus. To meet the challenges presented by foresight projects in Nordic countries, the Nordic Foresight Forum project has two main objectives. To create and operate a Nordic Foresight Forum where foresight practitioners and researchers from a number of different organizations can exchange their experience and ideas. To identify good practices for foresight in the Nordic countries. These can form the basis for decisions and investment with regard to science and technology; for example, innovation policy and priorities in research or technological development. The overall aim of the project is to strengthen the Nordic Innovation Area, to increase the weight of input by Nordic countries in discussions in Europe, and to focus on Nordicness in a global world. 1.2 How the work was carried out The project was organized with five work packages (WPs), as follows. 4

6 WP1: Nordic Foresight Forum: secretariat and workshops, where the objective has been to facilitate the exchange of experience and learning. The workshops have been alternating sessions of professional and technical contributions on foresight-related issues and open-space workshops to give input to the three analytical work packages, WPs 2, 3 and 4. Three workshops have convened. o Workshop I, October 2005 at Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark. The presentations at the workshop included: (1) the status of nationallevel foresight activities in the Nordic countries, (2) national and Nordic research and innovation-council systems and their needs for foresight, and (3) case studies on strategy processes in national research programs. A total of 39 persons participated in the meeting: nine participants came from Denmark, six from Finland, four from Iceland, 14 from Norway, four from Sweden and one represented the European Commission. o Workshop II, March 2006 at University of Tampere, Finland. The presentations at the workshop included Nordic foresight case studies on actions, agents and methods. A total of 26 persons participated: two were from Denmark, six from Finland, three from Iceland, eight from Norway, five from Sweden, one from the European Commission and one from the Nordic Innovation Centre (NICe). o Workshop III, October 2006 at the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA), Stockholm, Sweden. The presentations at the workshop included preliminary results of the three work packages. A total of 16 persons participated: three were from Denmark, four from Finland, one from Iceland, seven from Norway, and one from the European Commission. WP2: Mapping of Nordic foresight actors and an analysis of recent Nordic foresight activities. The objective was an updated mapping of Nordic foresight actors and description of foresight activities in the Nordic countries, including the two ongoing and one finalized foresight projects sponsored by the NICe. The work package was based on o a desk study based on Technology Foresight in the Nordic Countries (project 01026) and the two European studies under ForSociety, ESTO (Mapping of (Technology) Foresight Competencies in Europe), o an Internet- and -based questionnaire survey, o telephone interviews and correspondence when needed, o interviews with key stakeholders outside the forum s participants, o input from the Nordic Foresight Forum workshops (WP1; open-space discussions). WP3: Mapping of Nordic national research and innovation-council systems and analysis of the needs for foresight and similar strategic intelligence. In WP3 the objective was to describe national (and Nordic) research and innovation councils and similar systems and organizations. WP3 included a description and analysis of the current use of foresight with the five national research and innovation-council systems, and interactions between national actors and on the Nordic and the European Union (EU) levels. The work package was based on: o desk studies of available literature, Internet-based material and personal information from key persons, o open-ended interviews with key persons within the national and Nordic research and innovation-council systems, o input from the Nordic Foresight Forum workshops (WP1; open-space discussions). 5

7 WP4: Identifying fields of science and technology for possible future Nordic (NICe) initiatives. The objective was to identify systematic processes to identify possible future fields of technology and knowledge based on available Nordic and national information. The work package also identified good practice in matching future fields of technology to national preconditions. Finally, there was a discussion and analysis of how different actors in the innovation system can implement results from foresight studies. The work package was based on: o a desk study based on results of foresight projects during recent years in Nordic countries, o input from the second and third Nordic Foresight Forum workshops (WP1; openspace discussions), o an Internet- and -based questionnaire on Nordic foresight activities, WP5: Reporting and dissemination. 1.3 Contents and recommendations of this report The results from the project are summarized in this report as a number of recommendations to the NICe and to other Nordic foresight actors, together with conclusions on how foresight can give added value at Nordic level. In the introduction of this report (Chapter 2) the challenges of innovation policy and the possible roles of foresight exercises are discussed. The rest of the report is structured according to the work packages carried out during the project. Chapter 3 gives an update on foresight actors and activities. Chapter 4 takes a closer look at the Nordic research and innovation councils, their contemporary challenges and their expressed needs for foresight in the future. Chapter 5 discusses the challenges arising from Nordic foresight activities. In particular, foresight activities and the implementation of resulting foresight knowledge are discussed. Finally, Chapter 6 discusses future perspectives for foresight at the Nordic level and lists recommendations for the NICe based on findings from the project. The question has been raised of whether a special Nordic definition of foresight exists. If there is any Nordicness in foresight it could include the following three elements: 1) participatory approaches, based on the traditions of parliamentarian technology assessment of the Danish and Norwegian Boards of Technology and on civic inclusion in political decision-making, 2) stakeholder discussions, based on the traditions for consensus processes between industry, science and policy-making (i.e. in Finland), 3) an advanced understanding of innovation systems and of the interaction between these system and foresight exercises, based on Nordic research communities within (national, regional, sectoral) innovation systems and the policy-making based on this understanding in all five Nordic countries. Based on this and on the definition in an earlier Nordic study (Eerola & Jørgensen, 2002) we define foresight in our context as: A systematic, future-oriented, analytical and interactive process contributing to shared visions concerning long-term developments. In foresight exercises dynamics in the innovation system (market and industrial structure, knowledge-production structure, forms of interaction and wider framing conditions) are examined in their real-world, economic and societal context. The purpose is to facilitate interaction between the interest groups and to increase 6

8 the knowledge base of key actors, so that desirable developments can be supported with relevant strategies, decisions and actions. As a result of the project a range of recommendations has been developed for foresight at Nordic level in general and for the NICe specifically. Recommendation 1: Use foresight to strengthen the Nordic Research and Innovation Area and increase the weight of Nordic countries in European discussions. Nordic actors such as the NICe can initiate foresight activities to identify bases for joint efforts to participate proactively in European foresight exercises and European socio-economic policy-support activities, and even in the design and implementation of European innovation policy more generally. Recommendation 2: Discover possibilities for Nordic added value in foresight exercises. There is evidently much potential added value in Nordic co-operation. However, R&D activities are needed to discover best possibilities for Nordic added value. Discussions in the Nordic Foresight Forum indicate that we need more Nordic stories and current first foresight projects funded by the NICe are creating such Nordic stories. Recommendation 3: Broaden the scope to the Baltic area. Nordic foresight activities should be in a broader context. Nordicness or Balticness should be understood in the global context. Nordic foresight activities can include actors from the Baltic Sea and Barents regions. An important future challenge is co-operation with Russia. Recommendation 4: Adopt the principle of rolling priorities and adaptive foresight. The Nordic countries could benefit from a limited number of clear priority areas of co-operation. These priority areas should be fixed for a certain period, but have space for emerging areas and topics as older ones are sufficiently covered. Recommendation 5: Initiate post-projects to mitigate the dilemma of projects being closed too early. Projects often generate a lot of interest Nordic as well as international but when a project is completed no resources are left to follow up on this interest. Post-project activities would include participating in seminars and reformulating results for other relevant audiences. Recommendation 6: Monitor procedures for Nordic foresight activities systematically and liaise with the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN). Recommendation 7: Initiate a systematic procedure for generating and assessing good ideas and topics for Nordic co-operation in foresight. The following topics were identified during the project: the future of innovation in the Nordic social model, Nordic Energy Foresights, following the experiences from the Hydrogen Energy Foresight, from Common Agricultural Policy to bioenergy and R&D funding: implications for the Nordic countries if the EU Common Agricultural Policy is shifted to support bioenergy and R&D, Nordic security foresight, Nordic services foresight(s), including education, health care and services for older people, Nordic remote-areas foresight. 7

9 Recommendation 8: Prolong the Nordic Foresight Forum. The regular meetings of the Nordic Foresight Forum (every 6 months) and especially the more committed effort in the work packages has proved a strong mechanism for both formal and informal networking and exchange of experiences and knowledge. It has also created a solid basis for further European co-operation. One of the main purposes of the network is learning and the exchange of practices and experience from foresight activities and their impact on decision-making and policy in the Nordic countries. 2 Foresight and innovation The rationale for carrying out public foresight exercises, be it on a supra-national, national or regional level, relates to political goals of solving larger societal challenges. One of the most important challenges is to increase national economic competitiveness by means of technological or societal innovation. In the Nordic countries there is a rich tradition of innovation studies with a focus on the innovation system. In all the Nordic countries innovation policies have been established that are guided by this research. In this tradition an innovation system can be defined as the elements and relationships, which interact in the production, diffusion and use of new and economically useful knowledge (Lundvall, 1992). Innovation policies have been suggested to underpin the innovation system by improving its ability to serve five primary functions (Johnson & Jacobsson, 2001): 1) to create and diffuse new knowledge; 2) to guide the direction of the search process among users and suppliers of technology; that is, to influence the direction in which actors employ their resources; 3) to supply resources, including capital, competencies and other resources; 4) to create positive external economies through the exchange of information, knowledge and vision; 5) to facilitate the formation of markets. To guide the direction of search processes, to supply (and prioritize) resources and exchange (and create) visions and information are obvious rationales for foresight exercises. That is why foresight is said to be a policy tool for wiring up national innovation systems. Hence, the theoretical rationale for foresight exercises is supported by the evolutionary perspective within economics. This is also in accordance with the general political discussion on governmental expenditures on research in most Nordic and European countries. To comply with the EU s Lisbon target of allocating 1% of GDP to governmental R&D, most European counties need to increase their expenditures by The Nordic countries, led by Sweden, Finland and Iceland, are well placed to comply with this political ambition. A four-person group, chaired by former Prime Minister of Finland Esko Aho, has on behalf of the European Commission identified challenges in European innovation policy. The group argues that there is a large gap between the political rhetoric about the knowledge society and the reality of budgetary and other priorities that has shown little sign of closing (European Communities, 2006). Foresight exercises are expected to contribute at various levels of society by generating 8

10 appropriate inputs for planning and decision-making and/or by facilitating useful dialogues between various stakeholders in innovation systems. Both the foresight process itself and its outputs can be valuable in this respect (Martin & Johnston 1999; Grupp and Linstone, 1999; Salo & Cuhls, 2003). The value of the foresight exercise depends on the ways in which the resulting knowledge is implemented in ongoing and forthcoming actions. However, the explicit and direct uses of foresight in predefined decision-making contexts are just part of the picture. Important indirect and diffuse links exist, too. For instance: foresight exercises may contribute to society s strategic intelligence by stimulating futureoriented thinking and by widening the perspectives and knowledge base of researchers, policy-makers and industrial decision-makers; foresight exercises can be useful in creating a common language and understanding between the various interest groups; foresight exercises can create and support new value networks; shared foresight can be helpful to engage decision-makers in specific issues, to legitimate a chosen course of action, or to support fruitful debates among stakeholders; even irrational and casual uses of foresight may have significant effects on some important decision outcomes (for example, framing issues that affect managerial risktaking behaviour). Foresight on policy and decision-making may thus have an influence via multiple paths (through a number of negotiation, vision-building and consensus-building processes) that are difficult to define explicitly at the beginning and during the foresight process. Furthermore, earlier foresight studies are often used as starting points for the later ones, and the users of the foresight often have difficulties in pointing out the exact ways in which they are making use of some specific foresight. Still, various types of foresight exercise may play an important role in preparing industry and society for the future, making it easier to utilize the windows of opportunity when they appear. 3 Update on Nordic foresight actors and foresight activities The state of the art of national innovation systems and foresight activities in the five Nordic countries was summarized in the final report of the feasibility study Technology foresight in the Nordic countries (Eerola & Jørgensen, 2002). One of the tasks of this project has been to update the information on foresight actors and activities in the five Nordic countries. In the Nordic countries foresight activities are initiated and carried out by a relatively large number of actors in governmental organizations, universities and research institutes, as well as in the private sector. The various actor groups involved in Nordic foresight activities are discussed in the following sub-chapters. The chapter concludes by discussing the roles of these groups in Nordic foresight activities. 3.1 Governmental foresight actors Denmark With the reorganization of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation in May 2006 foresight-like activities were moved from the Ministry itself to the expanded Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation (DASTI). DASTI has among its responsibilities dialogue on priorities in research and technology initiatives. 9

11 The Council for Technology and Innovation has launched tenders for a number of High Technology Networks in the areas identified by the finalized foresight projects. Other impacts of the foresight exercises are more indirect, such as creating debate and raising awareness. Based on recommendations from foresight exercises the Danish Board of Technology has initiated political debates in projects such as Pervasive Healthcare in the Danish Healthcare Services and Toxicology and Nanotechnology. Foresight exercises have also been initiated by the Danish Agency for the Environment and the Danish Agency for Forest and Nature. In addition, the Danish Energy Authority has conducted strategy processes with all key stakeholders in selected fields of new energy technologies so that research and innovation funds from different sources may be aligned and optimized. The County of Ringkjøbing was a foresight actor with its recent foresight project on regional hydrogen energy. In addition, a variety of regions, counties and municipalities are using foresight-like tools, such as future workshops, in participative planning and visioning activities. The Governments Globalisation Council, chaired by the prime minister run from a process to advise the Government on a strategy for Denmark in the global economy Finland In Finland, the Ministry of Trade and Industry initiated a pilot study On the road to technology vision, which it co-ordinated together with TEKES (the National Technology Agency at that time) in After the project the Ministry commissioned an assessment report on the present state and development needs of Finnish foresight activities. The report recommended a clear institutional framework for foresight projects and better coordination of the diverse activities that contribute to forward thinking (Salo, 2001). As a result, the Ministry launched a 4-year foresight development and co-ordination project in 2001 with a relatively modest budget. A number of foresight studies have also been carried out under the auspices the Ministry of Labour and the Ministry of Education, often co-financed by European Structural Funds. The Finnish National Board of Education also administrates a foresight database and Internetbased foresight knowledge service (ENSTI) with a focus on future education and labour demand. The Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament plays, in turn, an important role in raising the awareness and level of knowledge of the members of parliament ( with broad-scope future outlooks and more focused future-oriented technology assessments. The Committee for the Future also prepares Parliament s response to the Government s Report on the Future during each electoral period. In addition, public-sector organizations, such as the Academy of Finland, TEKES and SITRA (the Finnish National Fund for Research and Development), are important foresight actors in Finland Iceland The Science and Technology Policy Council in Iceland has recently announced that foresight approaches will be used for future strategy formulation and programme preparation for the next 4 years. The Council proposes that Iceland take an active role in reorganizing Nordic research co-operation and in strengthening support for innovation with the objective that the Nordic countries may take a leading role in these fields and assert themselves as attractive 10

12 partners in an international context. At the same time, Iceland was advised to strengthen scientific links with other nations in the circumpolar North Norway In Norway, foresight approaches have been implemented actively by the Research Council of Norway (RCN). Following an evaluation of the Council s activities in 2000 (Kuhlman and Arnold, 2001), a foresight project group was established to design and implement foresight exercises as a strategic input to the Council s funding activities. Early 2006 the governmental innovation policy agency, Innovation Norway, established a project called INfuture, which aimed to develop and adapt foresight methodology to its strategic agenda. In spring 2006 the Royal Ministry of Education and Research established a new unit in the Department for Higher Education to address research and innovation policy issues and the use and development of foresight methodology Sweden The first Swedish Foresight was initiated by four organizations: the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA), the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research and the Federation of Swedish Industries. It was co-financed by the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research, the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK, in its old form) and the Swedish Government Offices. An overview of governmental foresight actors in Nordic countries is reported in Table 1, together with their main activities in recent years. 11

13 Table 1. Governmental foresight actors in the Nordic countries and their main foresight activities from the end of 1990s to present. Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Ministry of Trade and Ministry of Industry and Ministry of Labour / Industry: pilot study On Commerce: short-term government the road to technology development plans administration: Norway vision in , TF within innovation, 2030 (roadmaps for the needs assessment in regional development, Future of Public Sector). 2000/2001, 4-year TF etc. development project 2001 In the RCN 2005, including a number carried from five of minor-scale TF projects technological foresight on various topics, piloting projects on different topics: of a Finnish Foresight Biotech Norway 2020, Forum and mapping of Advanced Materials governmental foresight Norway 2020, Energy activities , Aquaculture Norway 2020 and UTSIKT (ICT). Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI): 4-year pilot project with sectorial TF Nine foresights were carried out. Follow-up foresights have been carried out by the agencies for the Environment and for Forest and Nature. Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation (DASTI): foresight for supporting RTD priority setting from May 2006, following a reorganization of STI. Globalisation Council: foresight elements included in innovation and globalization strategy advice from Danish Energy Authority: strategic energy analysis and action plans. Danish Board of Technology: foresight elements included in technology assessment activities, embedded in broad consultations. County of Ringkjøbing: regional hydrogen foresight project. A variety of regions, counties and municipalities are using foresight-like tools such a future workshops in participative planning and visioning activities. Ministry of Education/Finnish National Board of education: foresight data base and Internet-based service (focused on future education and labour demand). TEKES, Academy of Finland, SITRA: cofunding of TF studies and outlooks, internal vision and strategy processes. Two broad-scope foresight exercises in (FinnSight2015 by TEKES and Academy of Finland, and a parallel foresight process by SITRA). Parliament of Finland, Committee for the Future: technology-assessment studies on various topics (come close to TF studies). TE-Centres: series of TF seminars, regional foresight. Science and Technology Policy Council: interest in developing national foresight activities for future strategy formulation and preparation for the next 4 years. A first attempt to work on a national foresight project was ongoing in the autumn of IceTec: pragmatic prioritization. Norwegian Defence Research: strategic analysis and foresights. Board of Technology: technology-assessment challenges and possibilities. Innovation Norway (governmental innovation policy agency): foresight methodology applied to its strategic agenda in early 2006 (INfuture). The Royal Ministry of Education and Research, Department for Higher Education: addressing research and innovation policy issues with the help of foresight methodology in spring Swedish National Board of Industrial and Technical Development (former NUTEK) and the Swedish Government Offices cofinanced the broad-scope TF exercise Teknisk Framsyn in NUTEK was also one of the key actors initiating and carrying out the TF project. The Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems (VINNOVA) and the Swedish Business Development Agency (NUTEK, in its reorganized form) were also behind the second broad-scope TF in , together with the Swedish Research Council and some other actors (see below). The role of Swedish Energy Agency financed the energy foresight in Public-service organizations: involvement in regional foresight exercises 3.2 Foresight actors in universities and research institutes Denmark The Danish Technology Scenarios Research Programme at Risø National Laboratory has been active in the field of foresight since The group has participated in a number of foresight studies, being also active in Nordic and European foresight co-operation. The group undertake consulting activities on foresight as well as seeking to underpin research and methodology development activities. The Innovation and Sustainability group at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) has been involved in foresight network and advisory tasks for various governmental institutions. Furthermore, the Danish Technology Institute (DTI) has offered consulting activities in foresight and scenarios focusing on business development and information technology. 12

14 3.2.2 Finland A number of sectoral and regional foresight studies have been carried out by the VTT, the Technical Research Centre of Finland, the Finland Futures Research Centre, the Systems Analysis Laboratory of Helsinki University of Technology, the Lahti Center of Helsinki University of Technology, Lappeenranta Technical University and other university research groups. These actors have also contributed to various types of strategy workshop that have been organized partly also for educational purposes. VTT has also been actively involved in technology roadmapping processes carried out internally or in co-operation with industrial federations and international consortia. Considerable efforts have been put into the societal embedding of innovations and new technologies (Kivisaari et al., 2004). Foresight studies focusing on some specific topics are typically carried out as collaborative work by sectoral research institutes, academic researchers and private consultants. On the educational side, a Graduate School in Future Business Competencies (TULIO), co-ordinated by the Finland Futures Research Centre and Finland Futures Academy, was established in 2005/2006. VTT and the Finland Futures Research Centre are also active in Nordic and European foresight cooperation Iceland The Icelandic Centre for Research, RANNÍS, has expressed an interest in developing the national foresight activities of the country, together with Iceland s Science and Technology Policy Council. Progress has been made in this direction. The University of Iceland has been active in foresight exercises related to hydrogen economy since the early 2000s Norway The Norwegian Royal Ministry of Education and Research established in 2006 a new unit in the Department for Higher Education addressing research and innovation policy issues and the use and development of foresight methodology. The academic institution with the most experience in foresight, especially foresight scenarios, is the Norwegian School of Management (BI). Tromsø and Stavanger Universities are additional academic foresight actors, especially in the energy field and with regard to the Barents region in northern Norway Sweden In Sweden, a consistent foresight actor is the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), although the old Environmental Strategies Research Group of FOI has been moved to the Royal University of Technology. The FOI/Environmental Strategies Research Group partnership has provided experts in methodology for Nordic foresight projects, as well as European and national foresight projects, in particular in the fields of energy, environment and defence. The Swedish Institute of Futures Studies concentrates on demographic foresight studies. The Foresight Laboratory ( at Örebro University aims to research useful knowledge for improvement of foresight practice and value creation in organizations and society. The laboratory is organized as a co-ordinated network of professional organizations all over Sweden and with international links as well. According to the laboratory s plans, research based on action cases can be viewed as collaboration between researchers and practitioners, where the researchers share the problems and concerns of the practitioners. A broad overview of Nordic foresight actors in universities and research institutes is 13

15 presented in Table 2, along with examples of their recent foresight activities. 14

16 Table 2. An overview of foresight actors in universities and research institutes of the Nordic countries and examples of their recent foresight activities. Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Risø National Laboratory / Technical University of Denmark: Research, development, advisory tasks and education in the fields of innovation and foresight, sectoral and topic-specific projects at National, Nordic and European level. VTT: sectoral TF studies, technology roadmaps, research on foresight activities and methodologies, international TF cooperation at Nordic and European level University of Iceland/spin-off companies: the future hydrogen society SINTEF group: sectorial TF projects at national, Nordic and European level STEP group: some elements of foresight in futureoriented activities Danish Technology Institute (DTI): Consulting activities in foresight focusing on business development and information technology. Systems Analysis Laboratory of Helsinki Univ. of Technology: research on TF methods and practices, expert assignments at national and EU-levels, methodological support for governmental and industrial foresight processes Finland Futures Research Centre/Turku School of Economics: broad scope and sectoral foresight studies, scenario and vision seminars, methodological R&D. Implemented various TEKES and Academy of Finland projects Coordinating a Graduate School in Future Business Competencies TULIO, together with Finland Futures Academy., since IAMSR/Abo Academy: scenario and vision work in co-operation with companies, industrial federations and in the context of TEKES research programmes RANNÍS (the Icelandic Centre for Research). In conjunction with the evaluation of the Icelandic health and medicine field a foresight project is launched. This will be performed by RANNÍS and a Belgian consulting firm. Stavanger University: energy foresight, EU expert assignments Norwegian School of Management (BI): expertise in business development The Norwegian Computing Centre. Oslo Teknopol regional innovation and foresight methodology (SURPRISE project in ) Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI): methodological expertise for national, Nordic and European foresight projects, esp. in energy, environment and defence fields, together with the Env. Strategies Research Group of the Royal Institute of Technology Swedish Institute of Futures Studies: demographic foresight studies Foresight Laboratory at Örebro University: regional foresight 3.3 Private-sector foresight actors Denmark The Danish Society of Engineers (IDA) has given priority to using technology foresight to mobilize its own members in a discussion of future technologies. Simultaneously they are using in a proactive manner the results from these foresight processes to influence political discussions and agendas to focus on technology opportunities in strengthening Danish competitiveness in the knowledge society. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS) is an independent, private think-tank that uses methods such as trend analyses, scenarios, megatrends and wildcards. The CIFS identifies and analyzes trends that influence the future nationally and internationally through research, analyses, seminars, presentations, reports and newsletters. 15

17 Apart from the above-mentioned organizations a variety of consultancies are involved in foresight or foresight-like activities, offering methods such as scenarios, future workshops and future camps. Due to the Danish industrial structure being dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, which focus more on rapid adaptation than on long-term planning, only a few firms undertake in-house foresight activities. However, a few exceptions to this general picture do exist. Within the energy sector several firms have worked with scenarios for innovation and business development for some years. One example is ELSAM, now a part of the Danish energy conglomerate DONG A/S. ELSAM has even produced an interactive version of its scenario method that is available publicly on the Internet. Another example is the toy manufacturer LEGO A/S, which until recently had a business unit called VisionLab. LEGO VisionLab provided internal scenarios and futures analyses for LEGO and also offered the service for other firms Finland Technological developments in the Finnish private sector have been anticipated by companies and industrial federations as part of their strategy processes. Industry is also increasingly interested in technology roadmapping as a tool for managing technological change. For instance, the Finnish Technology Industries Federation has actively promoted this type of work. Finnish companies and VTT have also been involved in technology roadmapping processes carried out by international industrial federations and international consortia. The Confederation of Finnish Industries is, in turn, active in foresight processes focusing on future jobs, skills and competencies. The Finnish Association of Graduate Engineers has, in turn, actively promoted a technology barometer approach with the aim of alerting attention to the views of their members, industrial decision-makers and younger generations on issues related to the functioning of the innovation system. In Finland there some companies that specialize in foresight and innovation studies. Such companies are GAIA Group, Futures Studies Mannermaa Ltd, ETLA, Fountain Park and Regional Development RD Ltd Iceland Foresight approaches in Iceland have been actively promoted by private organizations such as Icelandic New Energy and the Icelandic Confederation of Industries Norway A mapping study published in 2003 documented more than 80 foresight projects in both the public and private sectors after 1996 in Norway. During the last 3 years, foresight has had its breakthrough in several different areas in the private sectors in Norway. There are several consultancies active in the area; these are typically a single person in a larger organization or independent, small organizations. Some of the organizations are ECON and SUBITO! Research&Futures. ECON has carried out several traditional scenario projects for both private companies and municipalities, and SUBITO! aims to develop a genuine foresight consultancy. In addition, individuals affiliated with universities and research centres (the Norwegian School of Management, Oslo Marketing School/The Chaos Pilots and SINTEF) act as consultants and foresight practitioners. A person affiliated with the Norwegian School of Management has carried out a great number of scenario projects in the private and public sectors in Norway and another person at the same institution is a foresight thinker and practitioner involved in issues related to sustainability, climate change, etc. Bigger companies, like the financial services group DnBNOR and Telenor, have also developed foresight or future units in their own organizations. 16

18 3.3.5 Sweden In Sweden, the IVA has taken the leading role in foresight activities since mid-1990s, inspiring and/or initiating most of the prominent foresight exercises. The first Swedish Foresight was initiated by four organizations: IVA, the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research and the Federation of Swedish Industries. It was co-financed by the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research, the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK, in its old form), and the Swedish Government Offices. The organizations behind the second round were partly the same: IVA, the Swedish Business Development Agency (NUTEK, in its reorganized form), the Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems (VINNOVA, founded in 2001), the Swedish Research Council, the Knowledge Foundation, the Swedish Trade Union Confederation and the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise. The study was conducted in close co-operation with the Swedish Government, companies, public agencies and other interested parties. In addition to the two broad-scope national-level foresight projects, the IVA has initiated more focused exercises, for instance in the areas of energy, environment and crisis management. An overview of private-sector foresight actors and activities in Nordic countries is presented in Table 3. Table 3. An overview of private-sector foresight actors and activities in the Nordic countries. Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Danish Society of Engineers: TF processes to facilitate discussion of future technologies among the members and to influence political discussions and agendas (main focus is on energy and food production). Industrial federations: sector- and technologyspecific TF studies, roadmaps, strategy outlines, etc. ETLA: cluster studies, including TF. Icelandic Confederation of Industries: vision seminars and Forums of Technology. Icelandic New Energy: promoting foresight methodologies in the energy field. Industrial confederations and the association of researchers Abelia/NHO have been engaged in foresight activities. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies: an independent think-tank working with trend analyses, scenarios, megatrends and wildcards, futures seminars and general consultancy activities. Apart from the organizations mentioned a variety of consultancies have been involved in foresight or foresight-like activities, offering methods such as scenarios, future workshops and future camps. Finnish Association of Graduate Engineers (TEK): roundtable TF exercises, Future Engineer project, repetitive Technology Barometer study since 2004, etc. Confederation of Finnish Industries: foresight focusing on future jobs, skills and competencies (including a Future Radar, development of an Education Intelligence System and a Services2020 project). Private consultants: technology- and sectorspecific TF studies, Delphi surveys, scenario processes for companies and industrial federations, comparative studies of national-level TF exercises, etc. A variety of consultancies, i.e. SUBITO!, ECON and individual persons affiliated with larger organizations such as the Norwegian School of Management and SINTEF, act as foresight practitioners. Private companies like DnBNOR and Telenor have developed inhouse foresight or future units. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (IVA): one of the key actors initiating and carrying out the broadscope TF exercises in and In addition, sector- and topicspecific foresight projects (including energy and environment foresight projects). Federation of Swedish Industries: key actor in the broad-scope TF exercises in and ; industry representatives participated in the TF process. Companies and industrial associations: involvement in national and regional foresight exercises. 17

19 3.4 Recent foresight studies in Nordic countries Denmark In 2000, the Danish government earmarked 24 million DKK to a programme for a national technology foresight project for the period Exercises have been performed in the fields of Bio- and Healthcare, Green Technologies, Hygiene, Nanotechnologies, Pervasive Computing, Ageing Society 2030, ICT from Farm to Table, Cognition and Robotics, and Mobile and Wireless (see The first round of green technology foresight was followed up with three more targeted foresights (Green Technology Foresight about environmentally friendly products and materials, Sustainable Agriculture, and ICT from Farm to Table). The experiences so far are that the use or implementation of the results takes quite some time, often several years. In some cases there has been direct implementation of the results. The nanotechnology foresight contributed to the Government s political decisions about the newly established High Technology Foundation. Furthermore, at least one university has made use of some of the recommendations in its contract with the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (Dannemand Andersen et al., 2005). The Council for Technology and Innovation has launched tenders for a number of High Technology Networks in areas highlighted in the finalized foresight projects. The Council has also launched tenders for R&D project support in focus areas of great importance for Denmark that were addressed in the foresight exercises. Other impacts of the exercises are more indirect, such as creating debate and raising awareness. Based on recommendations from foresight exercises the Danish Board of Technology has initiated two political debates, on Pervasive Healthcare in the Danish Healthcare Services and Toxicology and Nanotechnology. Among the governmental foresight-like activities the Globalisation Council must be mentioned. The council was set up in the spring of 2005 with the Prime Minister as chairman and with the task of advising the Government on a strategy for Denmark in the global economy. Over a year the Council had 14 meetings, received input from 48 international and Danish speakers and held discussions with 111 representatives of organizations and individuals. All ministries contributed, with a range of background reports. The work concluded in a main report entitled Progress, Innovation and Cohesion Strategy for Denmark in the Global Economy. Among the many recommendations, under the title Better basis for prioritising is the suggestion that the political prioritization of strategic research should be strengthened. Furthermore, a broad-based survey should be regularly carried out to identify the research needs that society and business developments create as well as the capabilities of Danish research institutions to meet these needs. With the reorganization of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation by May 2006 foresight-like activities were moved from the Ministry itself to the reinforced Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation (DASTI), which has among its responsibilities dialogue on priorities in research and technology initiatives. Foresight elements are also very much present in projects such as RFID - risks and opportunities and The future Danish energy system of the Danish Board of Technology. Participatory elements and close interaction with members of parliament are central traits of the Board of Technology s activities. Furthermore, the Danish Society of Engineers has carried out a very large foresight effort focusing on energy for the future. The process consisted of several rounds of foresight projects with elements such as brainstorms, workshops, Internet-based dialogue with members, scenarios, and roadmap seminars on six areas of energy technology. 18