Benefits of simulation

Transcription

1 Benefits of simulation Modelling and Simulation for the SA Navy at Institute for Maritime Technology Conference: The future of simulation in the SA Navy Dr Geertien Venter Domain Leader: Maritime Decision Support 3 September 2013

2 Structure of presentation! Introduction What is modelling and simulation? What is IMT?! Examples of Modelling and Simulation at IMT for SA Navy Underwater Domains Above water Domains Overarching Domains! Benefits of Simulation

3 Introduction: Modelling and Simulation US DoD Definitions! Model A physical, mathematical, or otherwise logical representation of a system, entity, phenomenon, or process.! Simulation A method of implementing a model over time. Also, a technique for testing, analysis, or training in which real-world and conceptual systems are reproduced by a model.

4 Introduction: Modelling and Simulation Simple Definitions! Modelling Abstraction (representation) of real-world systems! Simulation Use of the Model to obtain answers, insight and understanding

5 Introduction: IMT Institute for Maritime Technology Provide Scientific and Technology assistance to the SANDF in support of its Maritime Security Role (mainly SA Navy) Division of Armscor SOC Ltd

6 Introduction: IMT Capability or Knowledge areas (Domains)! Underwater Domains Underwater Sensors and Signatures (UWSS) Naval Systems Sub Surface (NSSS) Underwater Security (USEC)! Above water Domains Above Water Sensors and Signatures (AWSS) Naval Systems Above Water (NSAW)! Overarching Domains Environmental Characterisation (ENCH) Maritime Decision Support (MDS)

7 UWSS Domain : Examples! Underwater Sensors and Signatures! Mr. Philip la Grange (plg@imt.co.za)! SMOD Sonar Model! Acoustic trainer simulator! Others include: magnetic modelling

8 UWSS Domain : Example 1 SONAR TARGET INPUTS & OUTPUTS SONAR MODEL MAIN RESULTS: (TACTICAL PURPOSES) RAY PATH TRANSMISSION LOSS PROBABILITY OF DETECTION ENVIRONMENT & BATHY (SVP) COMPLETE SONAR EQUATIONS

9 UWSS Domain : Example 1 FRIGATE SONAR MODEL EVALUATION MODEL EXPECTED EFFECT OF REAL ENVIRONMENT ON SONAR EXPLAIN OT&E RESULTS NISSM SMOD

10 UWSS Domain : Example 1 SUBMARINE SONAR MODEL EVALUATION SPI Propagation Sonar model SMOD SMOD SPI = Sonar Performance Information

11 UWSS Domain : Example 2 ACOUSTIC TRAINER - SIMULATOR PC BASED PORTABLE

12 ACOUSTIC TRAINER - SIMULATOR UWSS Domain : Example 2 1. SET UP (Instructor) 2. SIMULATE 3. ANALYSE 4. CLASSIFY 5. SCORE GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACE COMPUTER SIMULATION FAMILIAR ANALYSIS SCREEN CLASSIFICATION TABLE STUDENT PROGRESS MONITOR

13 UWSS Domain : Benefits Benefits for the SA Navy! NISSM benchmarked against SMOD and found some problems! Contractual acceptance of the sonar of the Frigates (with IMT developed Sonar target)! Better understanding of the use of the models! Mission planning for sonar detection! Post mission analysis tool! Cost and time saving on the acoustic trainer simulator

14 NSSS Domain : Examples! Naval Systems Sub Surface! Mr. Hannes van Wyk (jvw@imt.co.za)! ORACOM Parametric Simulator Torpedo Attack Torpedo Defence! Drill calculator based on ORACOM simulations developed by IMT

15 NSSS Domain : Examples Background information:! ORACOM Parametric Simulator acquired with Submarine acquisition! Technology transfer by WASS to IMT on use and extension of models through Dynamic Link Libraries! Simulator build up to reflect current SAN Vessels, Underwater Weapons and Countermeasures! Defensive and Offensive Tactics are developed and evaluated for effectiveness.

16 TORPEDO DEFENCE SYSTEM MODELLIN! Determination of escape probability using the CIRCE torpedo countermeasure system against a variety of torpedoes with current tactics.! Design of optimised tactics to improve escape probability. LIGHTWEIGHT TORPEDO HEAVYWEIGHT TORPEDO

17 Calculator supplied for determination of maximum attack distance using Intercept and Bearing Rider TORPEDO ATTACK MODELLING Determination of attack profiles for given target speeds, inclination and bearing angles.

18 NSSS Domain : Benefits Benefits for the SA Navy! Determine and optimise defensive tactics (underwater decoys, jammers, evasive manoeuvres)! Assist in offensive tactics! Tactics software can be updated! Calculator (on laptop in submarines) replaces old paper tables

19 USEC Domain : Examples! Underwater Security! Mr. Jörg Schmid (jps@imt.co.za)! Naval Routing! Ship/mine interaction! Others: Force composition Waterside Security

20 USEC Domain : Example 1 Naval Routing: Mine avoidance A MCM capability of relevance to all Ships in SA Navy. Assumption that a minefield is accurately mapped Objective : find the route of acceptable/ least risk through the minefield (also Q routes)

21 Random minefield USEC Domain : Example 1

22 Output: the shortest Route USEC Domain : Example 1

23 Output: the safest Route USEC Domain : Example 1

24 USEC Domain : Example 1 Neutralization What to do if no sufficiently safe route is found? Selection of best combination of mines to be removed: Problem: Combinatorial optimization Solution: Genetic algorithm combined with routing algorithm

25 USEC Domain : Example 1

26 Ship-Mine interaction USEC Domain : Example 2

27 USEC Domain : Example 2

28 USEC Domain : Example 2 Ship-mine interaction: Output Total Mine Simulation System (TMSS) Ship defence against mines / vulnerability Offensive mine optimisation

29 USEC Domain : Benefits Benefits for the SA Navy! Acquisition support! Mission planning! Determine effective of tactics! Operational / Execution (Doctrine development)! Decision Support

30 AWSS Domain : Examples! Above Water Sensors and Signatures! Dr. Willie Gunter (whg@imt.co.za)! IR Signature and vulnerability prediction! EO Sensor performance and atmospheric modelling

31 AWSS Domain : Example 1 IR Signature and vulnerability Prediction Code used for this purpose is the Naval Threat and Countermeasure Simulator (NTCS or ShipIR) Comprehensive software capable of modelling IR signature of naval ships in their maritime background NTSC was accepted as the NATO standard code for simulation and modelling of ship IR signatures Used by IMT for SAN to investigate IR signature aspects and vulnerability against IR threats Contains 7 sub-models (Background, Target, Plume, Observer, Scenario, Threat and Flare)

32 AWSS Domain : Example 1 CAD Model NTCS Simulation Process Simula;on Measurement

33 NTCS Polar Plot Output Example AWSS Domain : Example 1

34 AWSS Domain : Example 1 ShipIR / NTCS Simulation Work at IMT! IR Signature & Vulnerability Modeling SAN Valour Class Frigates (MEKO A-200 SA)! Models for all the main propulsion & stealth conditions (IRCMs)! Good agreement between prediction and measurement (MW / LW)

35 AWSS Domain : Example 1 ShipIR / NTCS Simulation Work at IMT! IR Signature & Vulnerability Modeling Type 209 Submarine! Use: Basic model for submarine on surface! Lesson learnt: Important to have proper characterization of surface materials (paints)! Remark: ShipIR lacking the capability to model the thermal wake Super Lynx Maritime Helicopter! Use: Basic model to highlight high vulnerability aspects! Model validation delivered satisfactory results (MW band)! Lesson learnt: CAD geometry must be accurate for hotspot areas

36 AWSS Domain : Example 1 ShipIR / NTCS Simulation Work at IMT! FSG Paint Study Influence on IR Signature Study involved a comparison between a standard ship paint (leh) and the special low solar absorp;vity paint (right) on the FSG. Results indicate a reduc;on in MWIR signature for high solar loading condi;ons at a 45 down- look angle onto the ship.

37 AWSS Domain : Example 2 EO Sensor Performance and Atmospheric Modelling Principal codes used include the following EOSTAR (Electro-Optical Signal Transmission and Ranging) EOSIM (Electro-Optical Simulation) MODTRAN, HITRAN NVTHERM, SSCAM, IICCD, IIMRS LIDAR-PC, ALTM

38 AWSS Domain : Example 2 EOSTAR Developed by TNO to assess/predict the performance of infrared sensors in a maritime environment Can simulate all important propagation effects including scintillation, refraction and atmospheric blur Can generate synthetic images in different IR bands It is a scenario based simulation tool to satisfy future IR sensor performance modelling needs Outputs: detection probability polar and range/height plots

39 AWSS Domain : Example 2 EOSTAR Detection Probability Polar and Range- Height Plots

40 AWSS Domain : Example 2 EOSIM LRF Performance Prediction A detail laser performance predic;on tool that takes aerosol scarering, molecular absorp;on and atmospheric scin;lla;on into account (IMT development).

41 AWSS Domain : Benefits Benefits for the SA Navy! Most cost effective alternative to physical measurements! IMT has a variety of modelling and simulation tools to satisfy SAN needs regarding EO signatures and sensors! IMT has capability and expertise to understand and apply these tools to solve real world problems and questions! Good catalysts to initiate joint research work with international partners to the benefit of all stakeholders, including the SA Navy

42 NSAW Domain : Examples! Naval Systems Above Water! Mr. Lleon Downes (lsd@imt.co.za)! Ship Air Defence Model (SADM) Mr. JP du Plessis (jdp@imt.co.za)! Other: Justice Radar Model (CARPET TNO) Radar Detection Model Umkhonto Air Defence Model

43 NSAW Domain : Example 1 Ship Air Defence Model (SADM) Developed by BAE Systems Australia Used by many navies around the world (USA, Canada, UK, 10 European countries, Australia, South Africa and others) Intensively developed over the past 15 years, guided by user requirements World-wide community actively participate in submitting bug reports and enhancement requests to BAE systems This is extremely valuable as the model and its algorithms are widely tested. International networking at annual user group conference

44 NSAW Domain : Example 1 Ship Air Defence Model (SADM) It simulates a ship(s) defending against a threat missile(s) using its sensor(s) and effector(s) managed by a Command and Control (C2) system High fidelity models of ship systems, threat missiles and the environment Highly customisable with interfaces to link existing system models Scenarios can be simple or expanded to involve a large number of entities It runs on a standard single computer or laptop

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46 Chaff Algorithm Evaluation l l l l Example: Seduction chaff deployment algorithm against threat anti-ship missile Main input variables: NSAW Domain : Example 1 - Wind velocity (speed and direction) - Threat bearing (ESM detects missile RF seeker) Main output parameters - A number of rounds, each with a bearing, elevation and time to fire Simulation runs are repeated (Monte-Carlo) to get average results due to statistical variations in each simulation run.

47 Training using SADM NSAW Domain : Example 1 l l l l l A group of learners can be taught how their ship defence systems work by using the Ship Air Defence Model in a class setup Classes can range from basic to advanced using the same software A simulation run takes only seconds to complete Scenarios are setup, modified, run and analysed in class 3D replay of scenarios and a large number of built-in graphical outputs makes it easy to work through a scenario and investigate why things happened the way they did

48 Simulated entities in real trials at sea l l l l NSAW Domain : Example 1 Link-ZA is the SA defence force interoperability communications standard IMT built Link-ZA functionality into an external module connected to the Ship Air Defence Model Link-ZA communication between the model and ships over radio has been demonstrated A whole range of trials for training can be done consisting of combinations of real and simulated entities at sea

49 NSAW Domain : Benefits Benefits for the SA Navy l l l l l l Once a simulation environment is setup the per run cost is extremely low Better understanding of own system if used for training Algorithm evaluation can be repeated at very low cost Knowledge base for naval Air Defence systems and threats Can be used to evaluate and optimise tactics Weaknesses of the missile system were identified as well as ways to rectify the weaknesses

50 ENCH Domain : Examples! Environmental Characterisation! Dr. Carl Wainman (ckw@imt.co.za)! Project GENTLE! Mine Burial! Prediction of SVP (input to SMOD)! Other: River outflow rates model

51 ENCH Domain : Example 1 Project GENTLE! Study influence of sea state and wave height on Helicopter operations and undercarriage design! Modelling of wind speed, wave height and wave period! On board measurements to determine heave and pitch of SAN Frigates

52 ENCH Domain : Example 1

53 ENCH Domain : Example 1 Response of Frigates to SA Sea Conditions! Frigate Hull Length and Average SA Swell Wave Length 1 Ship in trough 3 As ship levels, water volume at midships causes upward heave 2 Bough pitches up as stern pitches down (synchronous excita;on) 4 Bough pitches down and digs in as ship also falls into trough Frigate response to 3.5 m wave 400 H wavelength (10-12s period)

54 ENCH Domain : Example 2 Mine Burial modelling! Understanding the environmental factors which effect the placement and stability of objects on the ocean floor! Important to Mine Warfare decision support and operations planning! Numerical model to determine the likelihood of object burial and sonar detection! Inputs wave conditions, water depths, sediment grain size, ocean current speed! Outputs Burial status tables and interactive maps per RSA port approachs User friendly excel spread sheet

55 ENCH Domain : Example 2 Burial poten;al Avg wave condi;ons: m (Period 4 17 sec) Declassified

56 ENCH Domain : Example 3 Prediction of Sound Velocity Profile! SVP s are important to solve underwater sound detectability problems using sonar equations! Numerical modelling of the thermal characteristics of the water column Statistical or mathematical properties of the water columns Using historic temperature-depth profiles! Deduced from a single Sea Surface Temperature (SST) value Provided from near real time remotely sensed satellite derived data! Synthetic SVP input to SMOD

57 ENCH Domain : Example 3

58 ENCH Domain : Benefits Benefits for the SA Navy! Improved operational effectiveness by not necessarily having to rely on a measured in-situ temperature profile! Predicted SVP can be used as a post mission analysis tool! Mine Burial model can be used in Mine Warfare operational planning! Results of GENTLE model were used as inputs to user requirements for acquisition of Helicopter! Better understanding of the influence of the environment on weapons and sensors

59 MDS Domain : Examples! Maritime Decision Support! Dr. Geertien Venter (gve@imt.co.za)! Smart Integrated Database (SID) P la Grange! Other: Combat Readiness Model HR modelling Ammunition Replenishment modelling Service based costing (JP Schmid)

60 MDS Domain : Example 1

61 MDS Domain : Example 1 SMART INTEGRATED DATABASE (SID) DETECTION RANGE PLOTS RADAR MODEL INFRARED MODEL SONAR MODEL WHAT IF SCENARIOS

62 Benefits for the SA Navy MDS Domain : Benefits! Outcomes and lessons learnt from a model can be used for acquisition support to the SA Navy (CRM)! HR modelling can be used for forecasting and what if scenarios for planning purposes! Mission planning with access to integrated data for different scenarios! Resource allocation for budget purposes! Decision support using HR and Logistic modelling

63 Benefits of Simulation (1)! Outcomes and lessons learnt from simulation can be used for acquisition support! Modelling can be used for forecasting and what if scenarios for planning purposes! Mission planning! Prediction of vulnerability! Post Mission Analysis! Catalyst to initiate joint research work with international partners

64 Benefits of Simulation (2)! Validation of measurements and acceptance tests! Test and Evaluation of systems and algorithms! Simulated entities in real trials at sea! Determine and Optimise defensive tactics! Assist with offensive tactics! Development of Doctrines and SOP s! Decision support! Training

65 Questions?