Heliophysics Division Roadmap Report. Edward DeLuca, Chair Larry Kepko, Co- Chair NRC CSSP 7- Oct- 2014
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1 Heliophysics Division Roadmap Report Edward DeLuca, Chair Larry Kepko, Co- Chair NRC CSSP 7- Oct- 2014
2 Roadmap Committee Name Ins)tu)on Name Ins)tu)on Edward DeLuca, Chair SAO John Leibacher NSO Larry Kepko, Co-Chair GSFC Ruth Lieberman GATS Mihir Desai* SwRI Xinlin Li U. Colorado George Fisher Maura Hagan* Russ Howard Greg Howes U. California, Berkeley NCAR NRL U. Iowa Jeff Newmark, Ex-Officio Larry Paxton Steve Petrinec Daniel Winterhalter NASA APL LMSAL JPL Janet Kozyra U. Michigan *HPS member 2
3 Decadal RecommendaGons
4 Overview The Heliophysics Division addresses its Agency objecgves and the NRC Decadal Survey recommendagons in the context of our NaGonal Space Policy by working to answer these fundamental science quesgons: What causes the Sun to vary? How do the geospace, planetary space environments and the heliosphere respond? What are the impacts on humanity? To answer these quesgons, NASA s Heliophysics Division is implemengng a program to achieve three overarching science goals: Solve the Fundamental Mysteries of Heliophysics (F), Explore the physical processes in the space environment from the Sun to the Earth and throughout the solar system Understand the Nature of our Home in Space (H), Advance our understanding of the connecgons that link the Sun, the Earth, planetary space environments, and the outer reaches of our solar system Build the Knowledge to Forecast Space Weather Throughout the Heliosphere (W), Develop the knowledge and capability to detect and predict extreme condigons in space to protect life and society and to safeguard human and robogc explorers beyond Earth
5 ImplementaGon Issues The Heliophysics Roadmap Team was charged with implemengng the 2013 Heliophysics Decadal Survey (DS). The Decadal Survey establishes strategic objecgves and inigagves, and was based on a set of reasonable budget expectagons. The budget situagon changed dramagcally between the beginning of the Decadal Survey and the publicagon of the Roadmap. The difference in projec)ons amounts to an unplanned deficit of $100M per year by 2024, which has significant ramifica)ons for the implementa)on program. 5
6 Funding PrioriGes The Roadmap team followed the guidelines for funding prioriges given in the DS. The Roadmap provides implementagon of the Decadal Survey s highest prioriges, including: ImplementaGon of NASA s porgon of the Diversify, Realize, Integrate, Venture, and Educate (DRIVE) program AugmentaGon of the Heliophysics Explorers Rebalancing of the Heliophysics research and flight por]olio. Given the current budgetary situagon, the Heliophysics Roadmap recommends that Heliophysics Division (HPD) 1) Remain flexible in its program implementagon 2) UGlize the full range of flight opportuniges (e.g., sounding rockets, CubeSats, hosted payloads, etc.) to achieve its science objecgves, 3) Protect the core Research program 4) Urgently develop ways to increase its flight opportuniges that are needed meet the goals of the Decadal Survey subject to the budget shor]all that emerged since its development. 6
7 DS Science ObjecGve & Roadmap Research Focus Areas The Decadal Survey is idengfies four science objecgves: Determine the origins of the Sun s acgvity and predict the variagons of the space environment. Determine the dynamics and coupling of Earth s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere and their response to solar and terrestrial inputs. Determine the interacgon of the Sun with the solar system and the interstellar medium. Discover and characterize fundamental processes that occur both within the heliosphere and throughout the universe. 7
8 DS Science ObjecGve & Roadmap Research Focus Areas II Solve the Fundamental Mysteries of Heliophysics (F) Understand magnegc reconnecgon (F1) Understand the plasma processes that accelerate and transport pargcles (F2) Understand ion- neutral interacgons (F3) Understand the creagon and variability of solar and stellar magnegc dynamos (F4) Understand the role of turbulence and waves in the transport of mass, momentum, and energy (F5) 8
9 DS Science ObjecGve & Roadmap Research Focus Areas III Understand the Nature of Our Home in Space (H) Understand the origin and dynamic evolugon of solar plasmas and magnegc fields throughout the heliosphere (H1) Understand the role of the sun and its variability in driving change in the Earth's atmosphere, the space environment, and planetary objects (H2) Understand the coupling of the Earth's magnetosphere- ionosphere- atmosphere system, and its response to external and internal forcing (H3) Understand the nature of the heliospheric boundary region, and the interacgons between the solar wind and the local interstellar medium (H4) 9
10 DS Science ObjecGve & Roadmap Research Focus Areas IV Build the Knowledge to Forecast Space Weather Throughout the Heliosphere (W) Characterize the variability, extremes, and boundary condigons of the space environments that will be encountered by human and robogc explorers (W1) Develop the capability to predict the origin, onset, and level of solar acgvity in order to idengfy potengally hazardous space weather events and all- clear intervals (W2) Develop the capability to predict the propagagon and evolugon of solar disturbances to enable safe travel for human and robogc explorers (W3) Understand, characterize, and model the space weather effects on and within terrestrial and planetary environments (W4) 10
11 Status of Document The final version has been reviewed by DeLuca and Hagan. An electronic version of the Roadmap will be released within a few weeks 11
12 Decadal Survey Budget & Roadmap Budget Decadal Survey Roadmap $700M/YR Lek: 10- year Budget from Decadal Survey. Right: Roadmap Budget from NASA/OMB. NOTE: $100M/year difference in NOTE: Decadal Research line includes fixed costs (aka sounding rocket operagons). 12
13 2013 Allocation 2014 Allocation ProgrammaGc Balance Competed Research & DRIVE 11% Explorer 10% Explorer 16% LWS & STP Infrastructure 59% 20% Infrastructure 17% Competed Research & DRIVE 9% LWS & STP 58% 2024 Allocation 2034 Allocation We can change the distribugon of funds even with flat budgets. Achieving this pushes STP and LWS missions out. Explorer 27% Competed Research & DRIVE 17% Infrastructure 14% LWS & STP 42% Explorer 25% Competed Research & DRIVE 18% Infrastructure 14% LWS & STP 43% 13
14 Full Roadmap Budget SPP SPP STP- 5 STP- 5 GDC GDC STP- 7 STP- 7 LWS- 6 LWS- 6 MMS MMS SOC SOC Current Missions Current Missions Explorers w/ augmentagon Explorers w/ augmentagon DRIVE Competed Research DRIVE Competed Infrastructure Research Support (including Sounding Rocket Range) Flight Program Support Admin Infrastructure and Directed Support (including Sounding Rocket Range) Flight Program Support Admin and Directed 14
15 Conclusions We are implemengng DRIVE and will increase Explorer/MoO budgets within the current budget predicgons, However The strategic missions are significantly delayed as a result of the budget constraints and our decisions to emphasize the competed research program and the Explorer program. MiGgaGng AcGon: The development of Small- sat/cube- sat technology will be important for achieving new sciengfic measurements with Gghtly constrained budgets. The HP Division and the community (through future roadmaps or STDTs) will have to address the trade between mission cost and flight opportuniges for the strategic missions. We are carrying the strategic mission costs as esgmated by the Decadal Survey, ~$520M STP, ~$1B LWS.
16 16
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