How Industry Assesses Areas for R&D Investment

Transcription

1 How Industry Assesses Areas for R&D Investment Susan B. Butts, PhD Sr. Director, External Science & Technology Programs The Dow Chemical Company AAAS Forum on Science & Technology Policy

2 Topics Relative R&D Investments Evolution of R&D in the US Leveraging the Federal Investment Why Companies Do R&D The Need for Competitive Advantage Balancing Risk and Reward Industry Variants Where Companies Do R&D SBButts 2

3 US R&D Funding: Government vs. Industry SBButts 3

4 How Much Is Spent on R&D? Figures for 2006: Funding / Performing World ~$1T (estimated from 2002 data) US-Located Companies (primarily from product sales) $192B / $209B US Federal Government (tax dollars) $81B / $32B US Universities (primarily from Federal Government) $8B / $40B SBButts 4

5 Government University Time/ Event Evolution of R&D in the US Derived From: C.T. Hill, "Partnerships in Research: The Evolution of Expectations," in Research Teams and Partnerships: Trends in the Chemical Sciences, Board on Chemical Sciences, National Research Council, 1999, pp Disseminate knowledge University Industry Relationship Gov t funds corrupt Create knowledge Disseminate knowledge Provides funds for defense research Weapons labs Supply Workers Pre-1900 WWII Sputnik Individual inventors Industry Defense industry R&D departments created Vannevar Bush Science: The Endless Frontier NIH AEC ONR NSF Linear Model NASA DARPA Intensive funding from gov t for basic research Independence Gov t funding shrinks Corporate Self-Sufficiency 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Cooperation 1980 Bayh-Dole Act NIST ATP Engine for economic development Create knowledge Disseminate knowledge Vertical Collaboration Competition? Strategic Alliances Restructuring Globalization Central research labs created for fundamental R&D downsized & research decentralized SEMATECH SBButts (horizontal collaboration) 5

6 Growth from Chemical Sciences R&D CCR $1 B/yr Federal R&D Funding In Chemical Sciences $5 B/yr Chemical Industry R&D Funding Basis: *estimated from CCR study **extrapolated from LANL study by Thayer, et al., April 2005 using REMI economic model $8 B/yr Growth in Taxes** $10 B/yr Growth in Chemical Industry Operating Income* 0.6 M New Jobs/yr** $40 B/yr GDP** Growth The Council for Chemical Research 6

7 Overarching Mission For Industry What: Maximize Long-Term Shareholder Return How: Invest to create most value through making/selling products or services Balance short-term viability against long-term value Avoid destroying value SBButts 7

8 Balancing Risk & Reward Minimize Risk Technical risk Financial risk Commercial risk Legal risk/liability Maximize Reward Competitive advantage Sales & profits Market position Product performance SBButts 8

9 Why and How Companies Do R&D Do R&D to create a competitive advantage in the market Try to place smart bets - invest R&D and capital dollars (manufacturing assets) on those technologies that have The best chance of success in the market The greatest return - sales volume/profit margin The winners have to cover the cost of the losers SBButts 9

10 R&D Investment Choices Trade offs in R&D investment decisions balancing upfront costs against potential returns Create new value (long term, high risk, high return) Discover and develop new products Preserve existing value (short term, low risk, moderate return) Extend or expand current products Avoid destroying value (long term, variable risk, negative return; also cost of not doing R&D) Loss of competition advantage Replacement or disruptive technology SBButts 10

11 Why Good Science May Not Successfully Commercialize Technology is not reproducible Technology does not scale up from lab to plant Cost or quality problems in manufacturing Insufficient market demand Consumers don t want/need the product Poor timing Poor path to market SBButts 11

12 Why a Good Product May Fail Even if There is Market Demand Probability of Commercial Success Depends on Characteristics of New Product Lower Cost Marginal High Higher Cost Low Marginal Poorer Performance Better Performance SBButts 12

13 Industry Variants Impact R&D Decisions Large company vs. small company Multiple products vs. single product R&D intensive vs. technology insensitive Differing business models for competitive advantage in the market (e.g., Pharmaceutical industry vs. Information Technology industry) Nature of products Time to commercialization Product lifetime Use of intellectual property Profit margins SBButts 13

14 Promoting Industry R&D Investments Federal funding for high risk breakthrough research and demonstrations in areas of national interest Consortia for development of pre- competitive technology R&D tax credits SBButts 14

15 Where in the World to Invest in R&D Deciding where to locate R&D is quite complex and influenced by many factors, most importantly: Access to product markets Quality of R&D personnel University collaboration Intellectual property protection Thursby & Thursby, Here or There? A Survey of Factors Multinational R&D Location, National Academies Press, 2006 SBButts 15