EIPC SPEeDNEWS The Weekly On-Line Newsletter from the European Institute of Printed Circuits. Issue 18 - June 2013

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1 EIPC SPEeDNEWS The Weekly On-Line Newsletter from the European Institute of Printed Circuits. Issue 18 - June 2013 PRINTED ELECTRONICS NEWS 3D printing looks set to pack a $4B punch by 2025 Rapid growth 3D printing has come of age, surpassing $1B in revenues during 2012 and with growth expected to continue across all target markets to Across the board printer manufacturers are reporting a surge in sales, some cannot meet demand, as awareness of the technologies and what they offer grows. Highest growth will be seen in the medical and dental fields, as well as the jewellery, designer products, and architectural areas, although this will not be monotonic as 3D printing locks into the capital investment cycles of the aerospace and automotive industries, as discussed in the new report from IDTechEx 3D Printing : Technologies, Markets, Players Figure 1: Market size by applicational sector in US$ million

2 Source: IDTechEx report "3D Printing : Technologies, Markets, Players" ( Growth will also be relatively strong in the aerospace sector, especially towards the end of the period considered (2025), by which point aerospace companies expect to be employing 3D printing with a vengeance as qualification hurdles are jumped. Several capex cycles in manufacturing industries are now turning over which will drive a relatively modest fall in the market in coming years with an expected compound annual growth rate of about 7.5% for the period A (nearly) unique selling point 3D printing opens up the opportunity for the introduction of cheap complexity into manufacturing. Unitized, albeit currently relatively small, structures can be printed which either could not be manufactured via alternative means, or would have been prohibitively expensive to do so. Avenues for cost effective mass customisation now exist, a fact that has not been missed in the medical fields who are increasingly adopting 3D printing for the manufacture of prosthetics and orthopaedic implants which are optimized to a particular patient through CT or MRI scan data. Swedish Arcam AB claim that more than 20,000 implants have been generated via its electron beam melting technology which now has both CE certification and, more recently, has been FDA cleared. The generation of customised implants derived from CT or MRI scans is not a novel concept however and a number of medical device companies worldwide have for many years been using CNC machines (see below) to do exactly that. Whilst 3D printers are certainly capable of generating more complex structures, CNC machines are compatible with a wider range of materials and do not suffer from some of the weaknesses which can be associated to 3D printed parts. Many orthopaedic implants are also relatively simple in structure.

3 Figure 2: High speed CNC milling of a knee joint Source: Siemens 3D printer manufacturers must place themselves clearly in this market against an incumbent technology in order to ensure that the medical sector clearly understand the benefits offered. Potential for low volume high value manufacturing also exists in the aerospace industry, and ducts within the F 18 military aircraft for example are already 3D printed in engineered plastic. Qualification of processes and materials remains an issue in this field, as does the limited size of unitized components that can currently be printed. Price Price remains an issue at the high end of the market however, with several users reporting that prices of these printers have not moved significantly, in contrast to the low to midrange printers. Printers that used to cost $1M still cost $1M, whilst printers that used to sell for $100K are now coming in at price points half of that value. Volumes are still too low at the high end of the market for printer manufacturers to have gained economies of scale and this is inhibiting uptake. The relatively small number of manufacturers with highly differentiated products and high entry costs to this market mean that prices are unlikely to fall at the top end for the foreseeable future. Materials prices also remain at a premium with 3D printer manufacturers reporting that their materials are optimised to their machines, effectively reducing competition. Prices for a kilogram of titanium powder for printing have been reported as high as US$700, where a kilogram of titanium comes in at well under US$100. 3D printing vs. CNC machines The report, informed by interviews with both major players in 3D printing as well as enduser organisations, addresses all aspects of 3D printing including the technologies, current and future applications, patent and publication trends, company profiles, and detailed forecasts are provided in comparison to the growth of the Computer Numerical Control (CNC) market.

4 CNCs are used across a similar range of target markets as 3D printing. CNC machines are used for rapid prototyping, tooling, and low volume production runs. Customers include the aerospace and automotive industries, also the medical sector and specialised machines exist serving the dental and jewellery fields. A modest "hobbyist" market of CNC home users exists. Most telling of all are the facts that the advent of CNC machining was described as an industrial revolution by many and that its inventor, John T. Parsons, was awarded by the Society of Manufacturing Engineers with a plaque in 1975 naming him "The Father of the Second Industrial Revolution". The market for CNCs exhibits a well established periodic nature due to the capital expenditure cycles of the markets it and 3D printers serve, and the 3D printing market will observe a similar periodicity as it penetrates into the same sectors. During times of capex turnover, revenues for the 3D printer manufacturers will be bolstered by continued materials sales, although many users will remain careful with materials usage whilst prices remain so high. Geographic breakdown The market for 3D printers is strong in the USA with activity also picking up in Europe, although Asia remains relatively weak for now (see figure 3). Figure 3: Revenue breakdown by region, 2012 Source: IDTechEx China has not yet seen much commercial activity in 3D printing, although academic centres have been rigorously publishing in the academic journals on the subject. Revenues for exports of Chinese printer manufacturers remain in excess of their domestic sales. Report

5 The report 3D Printing : Technologies, Markets, Players will give the reader a broad and yet detailed overview of 3D printing and knowledge of the key organisations engaged in relevant industrial R&D or academic research. Insights into end user requirements and perspectives will also be gained together with the challenges ahead for 3D printing. Detailed market data and forecast are provided from 2012 through to A 3rd industrial revolution is unlikely, but an industrial renovation is certainly on the cards. IDTechEx announces Printed Electronics Europe 2014 on 1 2 April Europe's leading printed, flexible and organic electronics show will be held on 1 2 April in Berlin, Germany. Located at The Estrel Convention Center this growing event which increased by over 20% in 2013 will encompass the commercialisation and progress of printed electronics and associated technologies. End users from verticals such as consumer goods, consumer electronics, healthcare, transportation and media are the target of his event bringing together suppliers and buyers. Exhibitors can now book for the event at the early bird rate and obtain preferred floor plan positioning. For details see Feedback from attendees and exhibitors at Printed Electronics Europe 2013 was superb, and included comments such as: "Excellent show and well attended as usual, guaranteeing high value traffic to our stand. Enquires were up 37% on previous years so very productive to exhibit." Trelleborg, USA "We made many new contacts and I was surprised how many more I made by exhibiting rather than just attending this event as we have done previously. The quality of contacts was higher than at many other shows we have exhibited at in Europe" RK Siebdrucktechnnik GmbH, Germany "A very nice event and rich in networking opportunities" Solvay Interox, UK "We very much like focus of IDTechEx on applications and markets. This is the way for Printed Electronics industry to move from R&D to volume business and convince investors and OEM companies to adopt these new and exciting technologies". ISORG, France "The event was well organized and attended and offered a lively forum for the exchange of new ideas and concepts in this fast moving market. If PE is important to you, I urge you to participate." FUJIFILM Dimatix, Inc., USA "A very professional and high value conference. I travel to many conferences around the

6 world and in terms of information quality, yours was one of the best in many years." Industrial Minerals Magazine, UK "Highly informative with the right players in attendance." Flint Group, USA IDTechEx host a global series of events on Printed Electronics and related technologies occurring in three continents annually. These are: Printed Electronics Asia, Tokyo, Japan, July Printed Electronics USA, CA, USA, November Printed Electronics Europe, Berlin, Germany 1 2 April Flexible electronics could transform electronic devices Nearly everyone knows what the inside of a computer or a mobile phone looks like: A stiff circuit board, usually green, crammed with chips, resistors, capacitors and sockets, interconnected by a suburban sprawl of printed wiring. But what if our printed circuit board was not stiff, but flexible enough to bend or even fold? It may sound like an interesting laboratory curiosity, but not to Enrique Gomez, an assistant professor of chemical engineering at Penn State. "It could transform the way we make and use electronic devices," he says. Gomez is one of many scientists investigating flexible electronics at the University's Materials Research Institute. Others are doing the same at universities and corporations around the world. Flexible electronics are in vogue for two reasons. First, they promise an entirely new design tool. Imagine, for example, tiny smartphones that wrap around our wrists, and flexible displays that fold out as large as a television. Or photovoltaic cells and reconfigurable antennas that conform to the roofs and trunks of our cars. Or flexible implants that can monitor and treat cancer or help paraplegics walk again.

7 Penn State's interest in flexible and printed electronics is not just theoretical. In October 2011, the University began a multi year research project with Dow Chemical Corporation. Learn more about the partnership. Second, flexible electronics might cost less to make. Conventional semiconductors require complex processes and multi billion dollar foundries. Researchers hope to print flexible electronics on plastic film the same way we print ink on newspapers. "If we could make flexible electronics cheap enough, you could have throwaway electronics. You could wear your phone on your clothing, or run a bioassay to assess your health simply by wiping your nose with a tissue," Gomez says. Before any of this happens, though, researchers have to rethink what they know about electronics. That means understanding why conventional electronics are victims of their own success, says Tom Jackson, Kirby Chair Professor of Electrical Engineering. Jackson should know, because he helped make them successful. Before joining Penn State in 1992, he worked on IBM's industry leading laptop displays. At Penn State, he pioneered the use of organic molecules to make transistors and electronic devices. Modern silicon processors integrate billions of transistors, the semiconductor version of an electrical switch on tiny slivers of crystalline silicon. Squeezing so many transistors in a common location enables them to handle complex problems. As they shrink in size, not only can we fit more transistors on a chip, but the chip gets less expensive to manufacture. "It is hard to overstate how important this has been," Jackson explains. "Remember when we paid for long distance phone calls by the minute? High speed switching drove those costs way down. In some cases, we can think of computation as free. You can buy an inexpensive calculator at a store for $1, and the chip doesn't even dominate the cost. The power you get is amazing." That, says Jackson, is the problem. Semiconductor processors are so good and so cheap, we fall into the trap of thinking they can solve every problem. Sometimes, it takes more flexibility to succeed. Source and top image: Penn State University