Creation of investor confidence: The top-level drivers for reaching maturity

Transcription

1 International Conference on Ocean Energy 4-6 Nov 2014, Halifax, Canada / Session Investing in commercial generation projects Creation of investor confidence: The top-level drivers for reaching maturity Ralf Bucher, Henry Jeffrey University of Edinburgh, Institute for Energy Systems, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JL, UK

2 BACKGROUND OBJECTIVE OF THE ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY CREATION OF INVESTOR CONFIDENCE CONCLUSION

3 Actual situation on the marine energy sector: Private company investment of over 600 m in the last 7 years built confidence and triggered significant progress For venture capital investors, a track record of continuous device operation of at least 6 months is a pre-requisite Leete, S. et al. (2013) Investment barriers and incentives for marine renewable energy in the UK: An analysis of investor preferences, Energy Policy 60, pp The top-ranked risks for the commercialisation of marine energy are: Achieving funding and Uncertainty in device performance Bucher, R. (2013) Strategic risk management in ocean energy, Proceedings of the European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference, Aalborg, Denmark The involvement of major industrials like ABB, Alstom, Andritz, DCNS, Siemens and Voith underlines serious commitment into the sector.

4 Key risks in realising utility-scale marine energy projects? Which are top-level drivers for the commercialisation of marine energy? Market-competitive power generation by marine energy Strategic goal Status quo Marine energy finds itself in a decisive transition phase, with: successfully tested full-scale prototype devices, but an outstanding array-scale proof of the technological concept.

5 Key risks in realising utility-scale marine energy projects? Which are top-level drivers for the commercialisation of marine energy? Top-ranked risks (by 44 interviews) Key interim milestone Achieving funding Array-scale success Reliability (uncertainty in device performance)

6 Direct outcome Proof of reliability of technological concept Strategic achievement Creation of investor confidence Top-ranked risks Key interim milestone Achieving Reliability funding and Achieving funding are directly Array-scale interdependent success because Reliability investor confidence depends on track record of continuous device operation.

7 Research principle: open-integrative rather than detailed-specialist look ahead and reason back the strategic focus is on market competitive electricity generation semi-structured expert interviews broad knowledge base by 44 interviews with all stakeholder groups system dynamics techniques unbiased and transparent analysis of cross-category interview data As the risks Achieving funding and Uncertainty in device performance are directly intercorrelated by the array-scale success, the determination of the top-level mitigation factors is key for creating investor confidence.

8 Government (associations) & trade organisation Certifying authorities Investors & lenders Law firms Owners & operators Academia & research Engineering consultancies Project developers Device manufacturers Transmission system operators Test site operators NGOs Offshore wind industry

9 Basic model: Which are top-level drivers for commercializing marine energy? Conduction of expert interviews Figure: Excerpt from questionnaire reply from a renewable energy and marine spatial planning theme leader - Out of a total of 234 individual replies for impact factors on the final of fullcommercial power generation, 16 positive and 23 negative generic terms and 7 seven neutrally formulated group terms were formulated. - The model is built one-on-one to the interview replies so that it transparently reflects the experiences and expectations of a wide range of stakeholders.

10 Basic model: Which are top-level drivers for commercializing marine energy? System dynamics model

11 Basic model: Which are top-level drivers for commercializing marine energy? Ranking of impact factors the greater the distance from the axes of coordinates, the more significant a factor on the final objective...

12 In-depth model: Showcase commercial-scale projects / successful demonstrators System dynamics model

13 In-depth model: Showcase commercial-scale projects / successful demonstrators Ranking of impact factors Negative impact on the development of marine energy Showcase commercial-scale projects / successful demonstrators

14 CONCLUSION Creation of investor confidence: The top-level drivers for reaching maturity The identified top-ranked risks ( achieving funding and uncertainty in device performance ) are directly intercorrelated. Showcasing the maturity of the concept by the array-scale success creates the required investor confidence and paves the way for reaching maturity but also has the opposite effect. A choice of technology solutions is required Getting the right learning at the right time is of upmost importance so all lessons learnt are positive!!!

15 I will stop talking now! Thank you for your attention. Your questions are welcome! Ralf Bucher, Henry Jeffrey University of Edinburgh, Institute for Energy Systems, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JL, UK