Foresight-related activities at NISTEP

Transcription

1 Foresight-related activities at NISTEP August 2011 UNIDO Mutual Learning Workshop at Bucharest Nobuyuki SHIRAKAWA

2 Structure of NISTEP Government of Japan NISTEP 1 st Theory-Oriented Research Group 2 nd Theory-Oriented Research Group MEXT Data/info Emphasis on theoretical / academic researches Cabinet Office 1 st Policy-Oriented Research Group CSTP Other ministries Data/info Director General Affiliated Research Fellows Research Sector 2 nd Policy-Oriented Research Group 3 rd Policy-Oriented Research Group Emphasis on researches based on political agendas and public policy MEXT and CSTP ask to NISTEP to conduct survey or research so that they can obtain qualitative and quantitative data to discuss S&T policies. Deputy Director General Science and Technology Foresight Center (STFC) Conducting foresight studies and other works Research Unit for S&T Analysis and Indicators S&T activities and effects of S&T policies Research Unit for SciSIP Science for science and innovation policy Research Support Sector Research Supporting Divisions General Affairs Division Planning Division

3 National Foresight

4 The 9th S&T Foresight -framework Science and technology foresight for solving grand challenges Mission-oriented approach: four grand challenges and solutions for them Interdisciplinary discussion / diversified participants Duration: Apr Dec (including preliminary study) Time horizon: 2040 Four grand challenges Central player in the scientific and technological arena Sustainable growth through green innovation Successful model for a healthy-aging society Secure life Global/national challenge Global/national challenge Global/national challenge Delphi survey Scenario writing Regional workshop To find a solution in grand challenges: What are priority research areas from a strategic point of view? What areas of science and technology should be promoted to be integrated? What social system has to be introduced, or restructured? Global/national challenge Solution Integration of wisdom toward solving the challenges Strategic priority research for each area Basic research Social system renovation International collaboratio n NISTEP Report No, ,

5 The 9th Science and Technology Foresight Contribution of Science and Technology to Future Society The 9th Delphi Survey (NISTEP REPORT No. 140) Delphi survey adopted a problem-solving approach and was characterized by its interdisciplinary nature. Future Scenarios Opened up by Science and Technology (NISTEP REPORT No. 141) Vision of people s future lives: clarification of the framework of science and technology and the path to realization using three approaches Capability of Local Regions for the Green Innovation (NISTEP REPORT No. 142) Visions of sustainable local societies based on the discussion by the local population, and science and technology conducive to their realization Vision construction for future society Needs for new science and technology Future scenarios opened up by science and technology Discussion on paths to be taken by expert groups Life of the people in 2025 as viewed from the results of Delphi survey Individual question 9th Delphi survey Vision of future services conceived by younger generations Regional workshop Capability of local regions for the green innovation wrap-up workshop Creation of new industries and services General questions Extraction of elements and factors that can bring about an innovation in society 5

6 9th Delphi Survey Cross-cutting discussions in 12 interdisciplinary panels (135 experts in all) Selection of topics (832 in all) in science and technology in view of the problem-solving approach (including topics relating to social impact and institutional renovation) Overlooking 30 years ( , focusing on around 2025) Panel No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 No. 4 No. 5 No. 6 No. 7 No. 8 No. 9 No. 10 No. 11 No. 12 Viewpoint Utilization of electronics, communication, and nanotechnology in a ubiquitous society Information technology including media and contents Biotechnology and nanotechnology to contribute to humankind Medical technology to contribute to healthy lifestyles of the nation s people using IT, etc. Understanding of dynamics of space, earth, and life, and science and technology which expand the region of human activity Promotion of diverse energy technology innovations Necessary resources, including water, food, minerals Technologies for protecting environment and forming sustainable society Fundamental technologies, including substances, materials, nanosystems, processing, measurement, etc. Manufacturing technologies which totally support development of industry, society, and science and technology Strengthening of management led/required by advancement of science and technology Infrastructure technologies supporting daily life base and industrial base Questionnaire table Questions regarding each topic Topic forecasted time of realization ImportanceEngine sector 題 + General question Toward resolution of global and national challenges: - Priority research and development - In international relationships - Role of the government Respondent Rate R1:84%: R2:87% Total:73% (2,900/3,992) Questions regarding each topic Importance Forecasted time of realization Sectors that pave a way to realization Two rounds of questionnaire to many experts (Delphi method) Responses from 2900 experts Generation 30's or younger 8% 40 s 25% 50 s 38% Affiliation University University 47% 29% 60 s 24% 70 s 5% Public research institute 15% Others 9% 6

7 The 9th S&T Foresight output (1) Pictures of our better life around 2025 based on Delphi results Various diagnostic technologies and systems are incorporated in daily life and health maintenance by individuals has started to prevail. A society has begun to respond to various disasters caused by changes in the environment. Individuals can use various types of energy selectively or comprehensively based on their own value judgment and feel that they are contributing to the prevention of global warming and environmental preservation.

8 The 9th S&T Foresight output (2) Semantic mapping of Delphi topics and scenarios by text mining X1 Shift to low carbon X3 ICT Water resource X2 s X5 Cities & infrastructure X12 X11 X8 X7 X6 Health & medical Resources Nano bio Keys to resolving global and national issues X10 Culture & lifestyle Especially highly focused on categories (4 ) Highly focused on categories (8) Top 1/3 focused on categories (24 ) No symbol: Other categories (lower 2/3) (58 ) *Black codes: Delphi survey categoreis *Red codes: Group scenarios X9 X4 Food & production support Fields where science and technology can contribute Scenario themes for which science and technology are expected to make especially large contributions

9 The 9th S&T Foresight output (3) Future innovation envisaged by younger generations Citizens can select child care services to suit their own time schedule and place using Internet search Use of remote medical services at night, taking advantage of time zone differences Warning!! You have taken 5 kcal of energy in excess of the prescribed value for today Medical 医療 care 低コスト化 Cost reduction Globalization グローバル化 Aging society with a Food and Meal Work 教育 Education食糧 農業 食事 decreasing 少子高齢化 birthrate 労働 agriculture Health 健康 ICT医療 ICT medical care concierge コンシェルジュ Medical tourism 医療ツーリズム industry 観光医療産業 Logistics 政治 Politics その他 Others 流通 Improved 学生支援 s tudent support の充実 system Networkネット教育 based サービス education system High-efficiecy, Efficiency 高効率 high-quality enhancement in 高品質農業 and agriculture nursery care 介護 育児 と海外展開 its overseas and child care サービスの deployment Each citizen can grant a scholarship to an individual student (similar to the on-line trading system) Management コンテンツ support for ライセンス contents/ 管理支援 license Auto-pilot オートマ 産業構造の in Reeducation airplane 航空機 変化に対応 tune with the Labor した再教育 structural infrastructur Each citizen living in Japan can Optimized nutrition and diet e高齢者用 エネルギー伝送 of elderly changes of インテリジェント energy receive educational services from 労働インフラ industries management の最適化 population 食器 トイレ delivery Cloud logistics around the world クラウド流通 On-demand Intelligent Cloud and Arabic conversation クラウド労働 オンデマンド Life-long 長期ライフ plateware, public on-demand オンデマンド 公共交通 the Middle East medical transportation ログ医療 Fusion toilet labor ゲームとof 労働 force Chinese conversation care games and 実生活の China real 融合 life 効率化 Efficiency 効率化 enhancement Diet data is logged for a long time for medical application. Real time nutrition management is provided using the nutrition sensors embedded in the plateware 共有化 Sharing Cloud use クラウド化 Network 医療 Medical ロジスティクス logistics 栄養 食品管理 compatible ネット家電 appliances for Molecular biology US 仮想 Virtual character キャラクタ 仮想化 Virtualization Objective that can be tackled on concrete terms Objective that needs technical consideration Objective with high technical barrier Objective with institutional barrier Objective that needs consideration of concrete terms Widespread use of on-demand buses that run on the schedules and along the desired route of the passengers. Decision making by virtual characters that represent collective opinions. For example, the avatars representing a citizen, an organization or a politician are used.

10 Discussion of future society in 2025 Contribution to Innovation 25 NISTEP Report No.101 Social Vision toward Scenario Discussion based on S&T Foresight - Steering committee consisted of a chair and 15 members including social scientists; had two meetings; supervised the progress. Experts panels by theme Each panel consisted of a chair and around 10 members; had two meetings; looked toward the future of the relevant theme. Duration: Oct Mar Time horizon: 2025 Theme 1 Theme 2 Theme 3 Theme 4 Theme 5 Theme 6 Staying healthy throughout your life Information and telecommunications infrastructure to improve quality of life: benefit of ubiquitous computing Assistance for activities of daily life based on the development of brain science Safe and sustainable cities Keeping yourself vigorous and open-minded: career choices, child-raising and diversification in seniors lifestyles Efforts against global environmental issues and toward coexistence in the world Workshops by theme From 30 to 50 people joined each workshop. Participants were; S&T experts, social scientists, younger researchers, users, etc. * Around 300 experts joined the discussion.

11 International Foresight

12 Time of realization (Germany) Importance index (Germany) International Collaboration (1) Collaborative Delphi with ISI, Germany ( ) Time of realization (Japan) Importance index (Japan) Realization Time Importance

13 International Collaboration (2) Japan-Finland Foresight project (2008) Objective (1)To study different types of foresight each other (2)To investigate for multi-methodology (3)Comparison of the results Themes (A) Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aged society (B) Consumers, media and digital convergence (C) Recycling society for sustainable environment Theme selection by NISTEP and TEKES JAPAN (NISTEP) Discussion by expert panels Theme A Theme B Workshops A B C Theme C Mini Delphi (online) Scenario writing Japanese report Discussion by expert panels Theme A FINLAND (TEKES) Theme B Workshops A B C Theme C Mini Delphi (online) Scenario writing Finnish report Policy Study No.14 Foresight for Our Future Society -Cooperative project between NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)

14 Methodological application

15 Applying AHP method for priority setting of social goals Analytic Hierarcy Process by Prof. Saaty The tool which analyzes the mechanism of decision-making Structure of decision-making The "problem" what to choose as structure of decision-making first Some "alternatives" set as the object of final selection Touch that a "valuation basis" is between a "problem" and "alternatives Example: House cost location design utility neighbors House 1 House 2 House 3

16 Applying KJ method for making future visions KJ method is one of techniques to concentrate a variety of ideas, similar to mind-mapping. Procedure 1.Card making Fill in your ideas on cards and put on a sheet 2.Grouping and naming Grouping similar cards Grouping similar sub-groups 3.Illustration of relations among groups

17 Knowledge base & resources

18 Domestic Network of Experts Operated by NISTEP since Around 2000 experts join from academia, industry and public sectors. Administrations CSTP / MEXT Reports, Comments STFC Website Feedback, Questionnaire Experts

19 Watching Science & Technology Trends Monthly journal in Japanese since Apr Quarterly review in English since Sep

20 International Conference on Foresight Past themes: 1 st conference (2000) : The Approach to and the Potential for New Technology Foresight 2 nd conference(2003): The Third Generation Foresight and Prioritization in Science and Technology Policy 3 rd conference (2007): Re-think the Roles of Foresight The 4 th International Conference on Foresight (Mar. 2011) Theme: Foresight for future society - diversified development of activities - Two sessions including ten presentations and two panel discussions Session I: Foresight for future society and its international development Session II: Foresight activities for local communities and their potential - Two closed sessions for profound discussion Session A: International foresight activities in borderless age - Possibility of international collaboration- Session B: Foresight activities in a variety of communities Please see:

21 International exchange

22 NISTEP/GRIPS foresight training course Training which combines practice of foresight techniques with lectures on other topics for young officials and researchers of developing countries. NISTEP Fellowship Program: Spring Short Course 2006 (2006.3) NISTEP Fellowship Program: Spring Short Course 2007 (2007.3) NISTEP Fellowship Program: Spring Short Course 2008 (2008.3) NISTEP Fellowship Program: Spring Short Course 2009 (2009.3) NISTEP/GRIPS Fellowship Program: Autumn Short Course 2010 ( ) Participants were from East Asian and African & East European countries, India, Kazakhstan, Brazil, etc. Year Countries Trainees * Some of these include exchange students in Japan etc.) * Separately planned training courses has also been provided to individual institutions of countries (South Africa, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea)

23 Collaborative works with foreign counterparts AAAS Organizing Japan-China-Korea joint symposium at the AAAS Annual Meeting in 2007, 2009 and 2010 respectively. The joint symposium will be held in February, 2011 again. Trilateral S&T Policy Seminar Initiating Japan-China-Korea S&T Policy Seminar annually since Heads of institutes together work to foster young researchers, and to strengthen their contributions to academia and society.

24 Thank you! For more information 24