Riel Miller, UNESCO, Riel Miller Head of Foresight

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2 Riel Miller Head of Foresight

3 The Emergent Present: Repetition & Difference In an emergent present the only constant is change the change of that which repeats and that which is different. The future only exists in the present as anticipation. Time and space make anticipation an inherent attribute of all phenomena. Anticipatory systems are both animate and inanimate. Science as practice is a conscious approach to constantly renegotiating the meaning of reality.

4 Distinguishing different kinds of change.

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7 Convergence: Catch-up with the leader Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012

8 Leap-frog: From behind to being ahead Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012 Leap-frog to where?

9 What is the Question?Thinking about systemic change Change within the system Change outside the system Inside-in Inside-out Outside-in Outside-out

10 What is the context for the processes of CH selection? Less manageab le less clarity of goal Regime 2 (Industrial) Regime 3 (Learning intensive society) Greater freedom and ambiguity - spontaneity More manageab le more clarity of goal Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012 Less reflexivity Regime 1 (Agriculture) Different contexts and times? More reflexivity What role for the industrial era state?

11 Knowledge creation as the constant renegotiation of our relationship to reality repetition & difference Discovery (flow) Living knowledge (stock) Non-institutional Public sector Preservation Cover it all Private sector Preservation Net new Net new Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012 Source: Etienne Wegner

12 Stocks & Flows, Repetition & Difference, Continunity & Disruption What repeats? How does it repeat? Why should it repeat? When should it not repeat? Difference why, when, where, how? How does difference change repetition? Thinking about the conditions for birth and death the role of conscious action?

13 Mode 1 (knowledge production) refers to a form of knowledge production a complex of ideas, methods, values, norms that has grown up to control the diffusion of the Newtonian (empirical and mathematical physics) model to more and more fields of enquiry and ensure its compliance with what is considered sound scientific practice. Gibbons et. al. The New Production of Knowledge, 1994, p. 2

14 Mode 2 knowledge is carried out in a context of application. Mode 1 is disciplinary while Mode 2 is transdisciplinary. Mode 1 is characterised by homogeneity, Mode 2 by heterogeneity. Organisationally, Mode 1 is hierarchical and tends to preserve its form, while Mode 2 is more heterarchical and transient. Gibbons et. al. The New Production of Knowledge, 1994, p. 2 Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012

15 Mode 3? Changing conditions of birth & death, repetition & difference Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012 Unique creation Banal creativity Heterarchical wealth Few firms Few jobs Mode 1 is marginal Mode 2 is general but not dominant We know the means, we know the ends but what are the models

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17 Not much to be done about all of this. Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012 Success in achieving stasis without change Success in achieving stasis with change Endogenous change within system reform to maintain system conditions Coexistenc e Disruptive coexistenc e Transfor mation

18 Transformative policies: enabling experimentation and novelty Identity: Easy Collective Me Cyber-citizenship who am I and avatars, privacy control Signalling: Easy sense making new accounting Knowbank a competency bank that identifies, validates and assists with signalling what people know how to do Community: Easy birth-death, entry-exit creating, joining, leaving contractual relationships payment, credit, etc. Credit and Payment: Easy linking icredit money and asset infrastructure, founded on cybercitizenship and knowbank assets for credit worthiness Trust: Easy refinement of evaluative capacities Collective intelligence query systems that use big data pooling to provide feedback that extends and deepens

19 Conditions for selection: stock and flow Knowing thy self Creating the capacity to select Research governance Using the science of uniqueness to generate collective outcomes spontaneously Being part and apart Capacity to initiate birth, death, entry, Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012

20 Use the Future: Scientific Knowledge Creation to Identify Repetition and Difference Level 1 use of the future extrapolation reveals the systems/models of current anticipatory assumptions (e.g. STEEP trends, forecasting, etc). Level 2 use of the future models of systemic discontinuity enable re-framing and transformation of anticipatory assumptions. Level 3 use of the future distinguish systemic continuity and discontinuity, endogenous and exogenous systemic repetition and difference: i.e. strategic (systemically distinct) choices. Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012

21 ow we anticipate matters it changes the present. Thank you Riel Miller Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012 Image: Sempe