The Emergence of the Learning Intensive Society in the 21 st Century: What Role for Universities?

Transcription

1 The Emergence of the Learning Intensive Society in the 21 st Century: What Role for Universities? Riel Miller Mexico, March 13, 2007

2 The poverty of historicism is a poverty of imagination. The historicist continuously upbraids those who cannot imagine a change in their little worlds; yet it seems the historicist is himself deficient in imagination for he cannot imagine a change in the conditions of change. Karl Popper, The Poverty of Historicism, 1944

3 Radical questions Is it possible to imagine a world where: Economic success does not depend on international competition Cultural refinement matters more for wealth creation than technocratic skills Social responsibility and identity are the outcomes of our capacity to be free

4 Motivating questions How can we: reconcile greater freedom with collective choices? embrace greater diversity without inviting fragmentation & chaos? foster greater creativity without increasing burn-out & stress? inspire responsibility? motivate change without resorting to fear? manage risk without hierarchy? combine respect for complexity while still gaining depth of understanding? Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

5 Strategic questions What are the implicit and explicit images of the future is it convergence, divergence, leap-frog and if so to what? What might make a future society different? And is that what we want? What could change the choices we make today?

6 Outline 1. A model of transition scale change in the 21 st Century 2. Implications of transition scale of change 3. Knowledge and learning: defining the scenario subject 4. Open questions and futures literacy

7 overnance Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007 echnology Economy Society 1. Transition Scale Change Towards a learning intensive society? Incremental radicalism transforms everyday life Within one or two generations Disrupts most institutions Alters culture & values

8 Technological dynamism Technology possibility space Pervasive tools Part of daily life Tools simplify & enable complexity Don t think of the tool, think of its use Contingent on socioeconomic change Solid MP3

9 Three dimensional printer Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

10 Castle Island, Worldwide Guide to Rapid Prototyping Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007 US Army mobile rapid parts replacement pilot project

11 A user can design and create their own objects, instead of shopping for existing products. Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

12 Technology possibility space Simple Solid MP3 printer Ease of use Difficult Prototype printer Limited & homogeneous Range of uses Unlimited & heterogeneous Technology is not destiny

13 Economic dynamism Economic possibility space Nature of production & consumption Organisational attributes of wealth creation Predominant type of economic activity Beyond mass-production and consumption

14 A learning economy & society Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007 Unpredictable tasks - creativity Artist Future consumer/ producer - cyber creator Empowered teamworker, informed shopper Predictable tasks - repetition Mass-era worker and consumer Imposed Authority Freedom to initiate Fusing of supply & demand

15 The cornerstone of the Physiocratic doctrine was François Quesnay's (1759, 1766) axiom that only agriculture yielded a surplus -- what he called a produit net (net product). Manufacturing, the Physiocrats argued, took up as much value as inputs into production as it created in output, and consequently created no net product.

16 Changing Composition of Output 100% 80% Percentage Share 60% 40% 20% 0% Time Industrial products Personal products Innovation (S&T/R&D) Creativity (Refinement of taste)

17 Post-industrial economy Five changes: 1.The preponderant source of wealth is no longer industrial (tangible or intangible); 2.The primary source of productivity increases is learning by doing, i.e. experience that allows for refinement of taste (self-knowledge); 3.Unique creation is local; 4.Ideas are global; and 5.Tangibles are cheap (food, manufactured goods, industrial services). Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

18 Social dynamism Social possibility space Attributes of identity: sources structure dynamics Patterns of social status - affiliation Ecology of culture - capacity to be free Towards greater heterogeneity

19 Identity & choice Heterogeneous /small Scale of social affiliation /identity Learning society Homogeneous /large Less choice Mass-era Decisions - what, where, when, with whom, how Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007 More choice Beyond the dualism of individual vs collective

20 Adherence to basic common values becomes more stringent The diversity, density and fluidity (birth, death, entry, exit) of networks depends on common languages strict codes (TCP/IP), trust and transparency hence key shared values become even more central

21 Governance Dynamic Governance possibility space Capacity to make & implement decisions in all areas of activity Quality of decision making: Extent to which best information is used Transparency of the network Extent of opportunties to experiment Knowing how to learn Towards greater responsibility

22 Capacity to make & implement decisions Extensive & unified Learning society Transparency & access to information Limited & fragmented Mass-era Limited Experimentation & learning Continuous Choices matter

23 Sources of transition scale change Technological dynamism Tt = f (E, R) E = ease of use R = range of uses Economic dynamism Te = f (U, I) U = degree of unpredictability I = freedom of initiative Social dynamism Ts = f (A, D) A = diversity of social affiliation D = significance/intensity of decision making Governance dynamism Tg = f (Y, L) Y = extent of transparency and access L = degree of experimentation and learning Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

24 21st Century Transitions: Synergy Conditions and the Policy Challenge Experimentation & reflection Dynamic governance Transparency & access to information Social dynamism Extent of choices Ease of use Heterogeneity & smaller scale of affiliation Range of uses Technological dynamism Task unpredictability & predictability Economic dynamism Autonomy Mass-era Learning society

25 2. The scale of the change How to imagine what life would be like if we take the potential of today and live it differently? History of the future Use the Learning Intensive Society model to imagine change

26 In the eighty years or so after 1780 the population of Britain nearly tripled, the average income of the population more than doubled, the share of farming fell from just under half to just under one-fifth of the nations output, and the making of textiles and iron moved into steam-driven factories. So strange were these events that before they happened they were not anticipated, and while they were happening they were not comprehended. D. N. McCloskey, "The Industrial Revolution in Britain Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

27 Post-industrial : Industry is not the primary source of wealth creation Agriculture Household Craft/Creative Industrial (goods & services, public & private) Agricultural Society Industrial Society Learning Society

28 Defining a more learning intensive society Learning in every day life: Acquisition and use of know-how Acquisition and use of know-who Acquisition and use of know-what Acquisition and use of know-why Cumulative over an entire population and over an entire lifetime

29 Average Learning Intensity of Daily Life Average intensity of know-what Average intensity of know-who Average intensity of know-how Average intensity of know-why (decision making capacity) Agricultural society Industrial society Learning society

30 Wealth, rules, governance, values Physical/financial vs human capital Simple vs complex property rights Ex-ante vs real-time allocation of power Shared values as basis for transaction trust (Universal Declaration of Human Rights) Quality of life Mass production vs production for self/community Life organized for work vs work organized for life Hierarchy vs autonomy Imposed identity vs self-generated identity Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

31 3. Knowledge and Learning: Defining the scenario subject Role of universities: Production of knowledge Maintenance of knowledge Quality assurance of knowledge Sharing of knowledge Local and global Social responsibility within the community Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

32 Defining the subjects What is knowledge: know-how, know-what, know-who, know-why new knowledge endogenous/exogenous Inter- and Intra-subjective knowledge What is a university? It is a hierarchcial institution made up of individuals and communities that produce knowledge Questioning the institutional context What kind of knowledge is produced? Who produces knowledge? How is knowledge produced? Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

33 Knowledge Production Covering all of the actors Living knowledge (stock) Discovery (flow) Public sector Preservation Cover it all Non-institutional Private sector Preservation Net new Net new All knowledge

34 Accounting for all Sources Working Home & community Knowledge & creativity Research Education

35 Learning in Context A Model of Learning

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38 The university in context Three scenarios: Industrial society Manufacturing and tangible commodities are pre-eminent R&D in a hierarchical framework to serve material production Transitional society Services and intangible output are preeminent the supply-demand dualism, the corporate form of business and employment remain central, undirected self-organising complexity Learning Intensive society Quality-of-life learning and banal creativity are pre-eminent supply and demand fuse, spontaneous networking, heterogeneity and directed self-organising complexity

39 Industrial era What: Science is knowledge focus is on discovery of new technical knowledge advancing the frontiers How: Uses mode 1 methods - institutionalised Who: Scientist and engineer the knowledge elite

40 Mode 1 Knowledge Production Mode 1 refers to a form of knowledge production a complex of ideas, methods, values, norms that has grown up to control the diffusion of the Newtonian (empirical and mathematical physics) model to more and more fields of enquiry and ensure its compliance with what is considered sound scientific practice. Mode 1 is the cognitive and social norms which must be followed in the production, legitimation and diffusion of knowledge. Gibbons et. al. The New Production of Knowledge, 1994, p. 2

41 Transitional era What: Contextual science How: Transgressive, borders: weak, strong, contested Who: Communities of interest and practice, institutional and non-institutional

42 Mode 2 Knowledge Production In Mode 1 problems are set and solved in a context governed by the, largely academic, interests of a specific community. By contrast, Mode 2 knowledge is carried out in a context of application. Mode 1 is disciplinary while Mode 2 is transdisciplinary. Mode 1 is characterised by homogeneity, Mode 2 by heterogeneity. Organisationally, Mode 1 is hierarchical and tends to preserve its form, while Mode 2 is more heterarchical and transient. Each employs a different type of quality control. In comparison with Mode 1, Mode 2 is more socially accountable and reflexive. It includes a wider, more temporary and heterogeneous set of practitioners, collaborating on a problem defined in a specific and localised context. Gibbons et. al. The New Production of Knowledge, 1994, p. 2 Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

43 Learning Intensive Society What: banal creativity learning to be How: Tacit, intuitive, inspirational, diversified, refined ambient collective intelligence spontaneous borders/no borders Who: Prosumer Beyond dualisms: supply-demand, individual-collective, plannedunplanned

44 Tertiary Sector Possibility Space High Intensity Learning intensity of society Compartmentalised, hierarchical, isolated, exclusive Hierarchical technocracy Learning Cloud Control over knowledge, stratification, transparency/access, signals Ambient, chaotic, perpetual, open Low Intensity

45 Four scenarios for the tertiary education sector Society Function Exclusivity & specialisation Diffusion & validation Low knowledge intensity Scenario 1 traditional model, massification Scenario 2 open, networked, marginalised High knowledge intensity Scenario 3 marginal, elitist, defensive Scenario 4 ambient, crossroad for trust/transparency

46 Strategic scenarios for TES relationship to transition to a learning intensive society High learning intensity Scenario 4 Ambient Compartmentalised, hierarchical, isolated, exclusive Scenario 2 Marginal open Scenario 3 Marginal elitist Ambient, chaotic, perpetual, open Scenario 1 Continuity Low learning intensity Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

47 Futures Thinking Not predictions, not forecasts Discovery, not contingency or optimisation Neutral social science Rigorous imaging and story telling Sense making of the potential of the present Assess where choices might make a difference Build capacity: real-time, creative & informed decision making Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

48 4. Open Questions and Futures Literacy A different vision of wealth (alternative to industrialisation and consumerism of OECD countries) Imagining catch-up, leap-frog, piggyback Building decision making capacity Inventing new collective infrastructure Identity and social capital (citizenship) Wealth and human capital (validating) Interdependency (fluid networking) Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

49 Assumptions (history of the future) Long-run change is compositional The old co-exists with the new, reallocation leading to shifts in the share of the total There are two basic types of change (both are dialectical and usually only partially rational, explicit): Incremental improvement (continuous refinement of existing system) Incremental transformation (cumulative alterations that eventually create a new system) Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

50 Community networks & network Unlimited communities Time/space flexibility of daily life?? Limited Mexico? Limited Interdependency Full Building transparency & trust

51 Networking and information Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007 Unlimited Practical complexity of networking?? Limited Mexico? Limited Use of information Full Embrace complexity and freedom

52 A Perilous Transition? Certainly, if we do it this way Changing societal capacity developing futures literacy Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007 Image: Sempe

53 What is futures literacy? Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

54 What is futures literacy? Futures literacy is the capacity to question the assumptions used to make decisions today. FL is a rigorous imagining technique. FL is about inventing and telling new stories about what is possible now. FL is about discovering the potential of the present. Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

55 Why futures literacy matters Hope matters for motivation what makes change worth the candle Capacity to understand and manage risk making freedom and heterogeneity liveable Grasping the potential of a nonergodic conjuncture: change in the conditions of change Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

56 A time for method and methods for our time Why futures literacy now? Because a futures literate society can use: diversification, imagination and interdependency to embrace spontaneity, experimentation & complexity without being overwhelmed by fear of the risks (perception) failure (reality of risk) in order to inspire aspirations consistent with a world where means are ends (values in practice) Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007

57 The human condition can almost be summed up in the observation that, whereas all experiences are of the past, all decisions are about the future. The image of the future, therefore, is the key to all choice-oriented behavior. The character and quality of the images of the future which prevail in a society are therefore the most important clue to its overall dynamics. Kenneth Boulding Thank you Riel Miller XperidoX Futures Consulting rielm@yahoo.com Riel Miller, XperidoX: Futures Consulting, 2007