SCENARIOS HOW ACCURATELY DO THEY MIRROR EMPIRICAL REALITY

Transcription

1 SCENARIOS HOW ACCURATELY DO THEY MIRROR EMPIRICAL REALITY Dr. Bernhard Albert, Foresight Solutions K. Christoph Keller, aveniture Wolfgang Plöger, Lab4Innovations Christine Stuck, aveniture Turku, 11 th June 2015

2 The Quality Criteria for Futures Studies Multiple Perspectives in an Evolving Process» Quality in Futures Studies A desideratum Most so called futures work still is superficial pop-futurism. 1 st Wave of work on quality criteria summarised by Slaughter (2004:31-47). 2 nd Wave quality criteria: Maturity Models (Keller 2007, Grim 2009, Rohrbeck 2011) and borrowing from (educational) evaluation (Gerhold et al. [Eds.] 2015).» Quality depends on worldview and tradition In the empirical/analytic tradition [cf. Slaughter 2004:36] of Futures Studies and for many users in the corporate and governmental context, predictive accuracy still serves as primary measure of quality. Problematic only for the informed foresight consultant.» If a scenarios-method could be validated, this would serve to reduce the gap between empirical/analytic and critical/comparative traditions of Futures Studies and their quality. 4 criteria

3 Scenarios» Scenarios are among the most popular methods for studying the future and widely used.» For dealing with wicked problems, scenarios can integrate alternative futures and different modes of futures thinking, creating a common understanding of the state of the present and possibilities for future.» There is no scenarios-method but a family of methods from different origins (cf. e.g. Bishop, Hines & Collins 2007).» For this work, we have chosen archetypical scenarios (Dator 1979, Inayatullah 2008). 5

4 The Future of Society as Wicked Problem» Society: complexity and counter-intuitiveness Future is a product of the endless interaction/oscillation between individuals and society. Therefore it makes sense to chose a socio-cultural approach towards the future of society.» Research intention: Investigating the predictive accuracy of scenarios with regard to patterns of social change manifesting in socio- currents. A case-study of archetypical scenarios (A-Scenarios) for the future of German / European society contrasted with empirical findings (E-Scenarios) from an representative ex-post survey on these social currents in three European countries (DE, ES, UK) and multivariate analysis. 6

5 Case-study: Scenarios for the Futures of Society Created from Socio-cultural Currents in Western Europe» Focal questions why are we doing this?: How will (Western European) society evolve during the next years? What lies behind the social patterns, what are the mindsets that manifest in social currents? As the future is not pre-determined do scenarios as images of plausible/probable/possible futures nevertheless mirror the measured empirical reality? If so, will that be a qualitative criteria and convince users in corporates and public contexts? Could that be a way to minimize futures-uncertainty? 7

6 Overview: The Research Process as Case-study Step Archetypes QII 2014 S.-c.Currents QIII 2014 A-Scenarios QIII 2014 E-Scenarios QIII QI 2015 Validation QII 2015 Activities Collecting relevant scenario archetypes Affinity Mapping Reflection / discussion Re-framing of archetypes Discussion and reflection in group on sociocultural currents Mapping sociocultural currents to selected archetypes in group Enrichment and consolidation of raw scenarios Re-naming and narrative writing Empirical Research Large Scale international Survey (3 European Countries, n = 1300) using Lab4Innovation s MSC instrument Multivariate data analysis (Factor- Analysis) Comparison of A- Scenarios and E- Scenarios Assessing validity of the method used for creating the A- Scenarios Deliverables Selected three archetypes according to teams mental model Rough description of raw scenarios 1. Fortress & Divide 2. Return to the Imagined Past 3. Engineered Society The Futures of Society: A set of three intuitive scenarios 1. The Closed Society 2. The Cooperative Society 3. The Individualized Society Empirical Scenarios for the Futures of Society in every country This Case-study Guidelines for future Projects 8

7 Team of Experts Name, Formal education Company / Position Work & Futures Studies Experience Market experience Bernhard Albert Dr. Phil. Foresight Solutions, Frankfurt am Main, DE Founder and Managing Director Since 1995 Forsight for Public sector and corporates Logistics, Chemical Industry, Public Affairs K. Christoph Keller Dipl.-Ing. (FH) MPhil Futures Studies aveniture, Freinsheim, DE Founder and Managing Director Since 1998 Innovation Management Corp. Career Industrial Foresight Applied Research, Engineering, Energy / Water, Industrie 4.0 Wolfgang Plöger Dipl. Psychologist Lab4Innovations, Heidelberg, DE Founder and Managing Director Since 1990 International Milieu and Socio-cultural research Public Transport, Finance, Automotive Christine Stuck M.A. Comparative Literature, MA Cultural-/ Mediamanagement aveniture, Freinsheim, DE Consultant Since 2005 International Product Management Analysis of Sociocultural Change, Consumer Insights FMCG, Creatives Industries 9

8 Archetypal Scenarios as Basis for the Case-study (1/2) 1. Expert workshop I: Collection of archetypes and Affinity Mapping 2. Re-framing and enriching archetypes according to teams expertise and mental model (based on criteria of todays relevance). 10

9 Archetypal Scenarios as Base for the Case-study (2/2) 3. Decision to work on with the following three archetypes: (1) Return to the imagined past (2) Engineered societies (3) Fortress & Divide. 4. Reality check by revision of contemporary issues discussed in media such as digitalization, society drifting apart/separation, disenchantment with politics, post-material dynamics. 11

10 Socio-cultural Currents to Enrich and Describe the A-Scenarios (1/4) The Concept of Socio-cultural Currents:» Socio-cultural currents can be described as individual principles for guiding life, changes in goals in life and basic values, new needs and wishes for change or stability different ways to adapt to changing environments.» Socio-cultural currents influence every-day-life of people: Work, family, leisure time, politics, health, technology and consumption.» Socio-cultural currents are constantly evolving. 12

11 Socio-cultural Currents to Enrich and Describe the A-Scenarios (2/4) 1. Expert workshop II: Discussion and reflection in group on socio-cultural currents. 2. Identification of 39 socio-cultural currents based on knowledge about existing mindsets (societal, technological, economical, environmental, political drivers of change) as well as on attitudes towards individual lifestyles. 13

12 Socio-cultural Currents to Enrich and Describe the A-Scenarios (3/4) Scope of Socio-Cultural Currents Expressivity Environmental responsibility Belief in social climbing Conformism Social responsibility Traditional family Acceptance of risks Competition is good Primacy of the local Openness for change Here and now Digital life Less is more Digital discomfort Belief in technology Need for meaning Transparency Need for nostalgia Acceptance of violence Wish for performance Experience orientation Acceptance of complexity Status recognition Traditional ethics Authenticity Connectivity Culture of emotions Need for protection + security Distinction Access over ownership Need for orientation Self realisation National pride Participation Cultural diversity Equal gender rights Slow down Exclusion feeling Flexible value orientation 14

13 Socio-cultural Currents to Enrich and Describe the A-Scenarios (4/4) 3. Relate socio-cultural currents to chosen archetypes. 4. Discussion and reflection in group. 5. Rough and preliminary description of raw scenarios. 6. Identifying keywords and directions. 7. Collecting manifestations of different areas (media, literature, different markets, politics, scientists, entrepreneurs, artists, ). 15

14 Scenario Writing / Narratives (1)The co-coperative society (Return to the imagined past) (2)The individualized society (Engineered societies) (3)The closed society (Fortress & Divide) Individualized society Co-operative society Closed society 16

15 The A-Scenarios: The Futures of (Western) Society The Die individualisierte Individualized Society Gesellschaft Humans Die Menschen strive after streben the nach uttermost possible individual immer mehr persönlicher freedom and autonomy from social Freiheit relations; und Autonomie; hence, engagements Bindungen verlieren become deutlich significantly Bedeutung. less important. The Co-operative Society Society is characterized by a high community spirit and level of engagement in social and ecological subjects. Being a citizen means not to wait for political solutions but solving challenges in (local) networks and communities. The Closed Society Safeness and steadiness are requested as well as orientation on common rules. Regulations made by authorities ease the live of individuals as they slip being responsible for societal conditions. 17

16 Monitoring Socio-Cultural Change (MSC)» The scope of the empirical based program Monitoring Socio- Cultural Change is the human perception of everyday-life, and the nuances of his interaction with the environment.» We focus on analyzing and describing changes of values, basic attitudes, needs and orientations. We focus on Socio-cultural Currents 18

17 Our Empirical Basis» End of 2014 / beginning of 2015 realization of a research in Germany, UK and Spain to analyze socio-cultural implications of the global crises with respect to actual economic situation, future prospects consumption patterns and attitudes towards mobility.» Altogether 39 socio-cultural currents were integrated in this research project.» Representative samples in each country (n = / years).» Online interviews, appr. 25 minutes duration. 19

18 Measuring Socio-Cultural Currents (1/3)» Socio-cultural currents are operationalized by a description of the respective core idea.» Example: I like living among people from completely different cultures. It's the sheer variety of lifestyles and ways of life that I find so enriching (Cultural Diversity)» Respondents are using a 6-point scale to indicate their degree of affirmation / rejection. Additionally we use a kind of conjoint analysis to indicate personal relevance of the socio-cultural currents. (Max.Diff.) 20

19 Measuring Socio-Cultural Currents (2/3)» This methodological procedure has several advantages: Coverage of socio-cultural currents. Description of people, who are affine / indifferent / averse concerning the respective socio-cultural currents. Possibility of bi- and multivariate current analysis (e.g. correlations, factor analysis, correspondence analysis). 21

20 Measuring Socio-Cultural Currents (3/3) Cultural Diversity Openness for and interest in foreign cultures and different lifestyles; conviction that different cultures enrich personal everyday-life; tolerance and cosmopolitanism affine indifferent averse Below 40ys., higher education and income Higher education Below 40ys., higher education and average, higher income 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % 22

21 Deriving the E-Scenarios: Factor Analysis of Socio-Cultural Currents» To compare our initial three socio-cultural scenarios we have conducted a factor analysis (principal component analysis PCA) for the socio-cultural currents. This was done separately for Germany, Spain and UK.» We have extracted three factors to achieve a direct comparison. 23

22 Validation: E-Scenario for The Individualised Society Acceptance of risks (.73) Experience orientation (.59) Acceptance of complexity (.65) Openness for change (.64) Expressivity (.62) Status recognition (.54) Performance orientation (.50) Connectivity (.48) Acceptance of risks (.74) Experience orientation (.67) Openness for change (.66) Expressivity (.65) Connectivity (.65) Acceptance of complexity (.63) Performance orientation (.61) Participation (.53) Acceptance of risks (.74) Openness for change (.69) Acceptance of complexity (.68) Experience orientation (.67) Connectivity (.53) Expressivity (.51) Participation (.42) Here and now (.41) Initial A-Scenario Acceptance of risks (3) / Experience orientation (3) / Acceptance of complexity (3) / Openness for change (3) / Expressivity (3) / Connectivity (3) / Performance orientation (2) / Transparency 24

23 Validation: E-Scenario for The Co-operative Society Social responsibility (.60) Need for meaning (.65) Need for meaning (.57) Need for meaning (.59) Environmental responsib. (.58) Authenticity (.53) Slow down (.52) Less is more (.50) Culture of emotions (.50) Equal gender rights (.48) Social responsibility (.59) Less is more (.53) Authenticity (.51) Equal gender rights (.51) Slow down (.47) Environmental responsib. (.44) Cultural diversity (.44) Status recognition (-.57) Less is more (.54) Environmental responsib. (.52) Cultural diversity (.48) Social responsibility (.47) Equal gender rights (.46) Access over ownership (.44) Initial A-Scenario Environmental responsibility (3) / Need for meaning (3) / Less is more (3) / Social responsibility (3) Authenticity (2) / Slow down (2) / Access over ownership (1) / Self realisation / Primacy of the local / Participation / 25

24 Validation: E-Scenario for The Closed Society Traditional ethics (.88) Need for orientation (.65) Traditional ethics (.65) Conformism (.59) Traditional ethics (.60) Need for orientation (.60) National pride (.56) Need for protection (.55) Traditional family (.52) Conformism (.46) Belief in social climbing (.41) Belief in social climbing (.57) Need for protection (.53) Need for orientation (.51) National pride (.51) Traditional family (.41) Need for protection (.59) Self realisation (.55) Belief in technology (.54) Belief in social climbing (.50) Primacy of the local (.50) Digital life (.48) Initial A-Scenario Need for orientation (3) / Traditional ethics (3) / Belief in social climbing (3) Conformism (2) / National pride (2) / Traditional family (2) Nostalgia / Exclusion feeling / 26

25 From this Case-study (n = 1), We Conclude» Scenarios can mirror empirical reality A and E-Scenarios were build on the same dimensions / mental model (39 sociocultural currents). Diverse and experienced Team with deep roots in Sociological Research and Futures Studies. High level of reflective practice exercised.» with some limitations Cultural background of team-members appears to be highly relevant. We underestimated the importance the geographical scope, in other words not being very well familiar with foreign cultures might limit accurate hypothesis building.» Future research therefore should better profile the scenario-team members with psychological/sociological indicators. should include a higher number of cases. 27

26 Guidelines for creating valid scenarios: Our draft proposal» Chose team-members with good intuition and long-term experience. Team-members need a very good knowledge of the topic gained from continuous environmental scanning/monitoring.» Chose a diverse team.» Use an appropriate method archetypical scenarios are simple but allow for the full complexity of mental models about complex topics to become included.» We believe, reflective practice is more important than the sophistication of the method used» Strive for depth (a critical attitude).» Be open-minded, dig into discussions. 28

27 » the end. 29

28 The Advanced Foresight Group Founded: 2012 Employees: 17 Place of locations: 5 Conjoined performed projects: 34 We are four Projects performed two partners plus: 17 30

29 The Advanced Foresight Group 31