Study Number MA108-09 August 2009
Copyright Semico Research, 2009. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or part is prohibited without permission of Semico. The contents of this report represent the interpretation and analysis of statistics and information that is generally available to the public or released by responsible agencies or individuals, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.
Table of Contents List of Tables... ii List of Figures... v Executive Summary... 1 Methodology... 2 Worldwide Semiconductor Sales Forecast... 3 Worldwide Semiconductor Unit Shipments Forecast... 4 Five-Year Forecasts for Wafer Demand by Device Type... 5 Technology Node, Wafer Size and Process Technology Associations... 6 Five-Year Fab Requirements Forecast by Process Technology... 7 Five-Year Forecast for Discrete Semiconductor Process Fabs Required... 8 Five-Year Forecast for Optoelectronics Process Fabs Required... 9 Five-Year Forecast for Analog Process Fabs Required... 10 Logic Process Fab Forecast... 11 Memory Process Fab Forecast... 12 Finding Used Equipment Sales Opportunities... 13 Semiconductor Manufacturing Categories... 13 Leading Edge Fabs: 300mm, 45nm... 14 Second Generation Fabs: 300mm, 90nm to 45nm... 15 Third Generation Fabs: 200mm, 0.80µm to 0.13 µm... 17 Trailing Edge Fabs: 150mm, > 0.80µm... 18 Third Generation Semiconductor Equipment Sales Opportunities... 19 200mm Equipment Sales to Trailing Edge Manufacturers... 19 Repurposed Third Generation Equipment: 200mm wafers, 0.80µm to.13µm Technology Nodes... 19 Second Generation Opportunities: 300mm Wafers, 90nm to 45nm Technology Nodes... 20 Potential markets... 20 Conclusion... 21 Appendix A... 22 i
List of Tables Table 1: Five-Year Forecast for Used Semiconductor Equipment Coming on the Market... 1 Table 2: 2010 through 2013 Semiconductor Used Equipment Market Forecast. 1 Table 3: Five-Year Forecast for Total Worldwide Semiconductor Units by Device Type... 4 Table 4: Total Worldwide Wafer Demand by Device Type (Thousands of 200 mm Equivalent Wafers)... 5 Table 5: Conversion Factors for Potential Good Die per Wafer by Wafer Size.. 5 Table 6: Technology Node Categories... 6 Table 7: Process Technologies and Associated Device Types... 7 Table 8: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast for Discrete Semiconductors by Technology Node and Wafer Size (Thousands of Wafers)... 8 Table 9: Five-Year Forecast for Discrete Semiconductor Fabs Required by Technology Node and Wafer Size (Rounded Up)... 8 Table 10: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast for Optoelectronics Semiconductors by Technology Node (Thousands of Wafers)... 9 Table 11: Five-Year Forecast for Optoelectronic Fabs Required by Technology Node and Wafer Size (Rounded Up)... 9 Table 12: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast for Analog Semiconductors by Technology Node and Wafer Size (Thousands of Wafers)... 10 Table 13: Five-Year Forecast for Analog Semiconductor Fabs Required by Technology Node and Wafer Size (Rounded Up)... 10 Table 14: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast for Logic Process Device Types (Thousands of Wafers)... 11 Table 15: Five-Year Forecast for Logic Process Fabs Required by Technology Node and Wafer Size (Rounded Up)... 11 Table 16: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast for Memory Process Device Types (Thousands of Wafers)... 12 Table 17: Five-Year Forecast for Memory Process Fabs Required by Technology Node and Wafer Size (Rounded Up)... 12 ii
Table 18: Leading Edge Fabs Required... 14 Table 19: Second Generation Fabs Required... 15 Table 20: Used Semiconductor Equipment Value per Fab ($US Billions)... 16 Table 21: Second-Generation Used Semiconductor Equipment Market Supply Forecast ($US B)... 16 Table 22: Third Generation Fabs Required... 17 Table 23. Third Generation Used Semiconductor Equipment Market Supply Forecast ($US B)... 17 Table 24: Trailing Edge Fabs Required... 18 Table 25: Additional 150mm Trailing Edge Fabs Required by Year... 19 Table 26: Annual Change in Second Generation Fabs Required... 20 Table 27: Five-Year Forecast for Used Semiconductor Equipment Coming on the Market... 21 Table 28: 2010 through 2013 Semiconductor Used Equipment Market Forecast21 Table A1: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Discrete Semiconductors (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 22 Table A2: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Optoelectronic Semiconductors (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 22 Table A3: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Analog Semiconductors (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 22 Table A4: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for MPUs (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 22 Table A5: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for MCUs (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 23 Table A6: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for DSPs (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 23 Table A7: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Gate Arrays (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 23 Table A8: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Standards Cells (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 23 iii
Table A9: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Communications ICs (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 24 Table A10: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Computing ICs (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 24 Table A11: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Programmable Logic (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 24 Table A12: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Digital Bipolar Logic (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 24 Table A13: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Other Micrologic (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 25 Table A14: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Device Types Manufactured on Logic Processes (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 25 Table A15: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for DRAM (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 25 Table A14: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for SRAM (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 25 Table A15: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for NAND Flash (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 26 Table A16: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for NOR Flash (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 26 Table A17: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Other Non-Volatile Memory (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 26 Table A18: Five-Year Wafer Demand Forecast by Process Technology for Device Types Manufactured on Memory Processes (Thousands of 200mm Equivalent Wafers)... 26 iv
List of Figures Figure 1: Total Worldwide Semiconductor Sales by Month, January 2007 through May, 2008 ($US B)... 3 Figure 2: Five-Year Forecast for Total Worldwide Semiconductor Sales ($US B)3 Figure 3: Five-Year Forecast for Total Worldwide Semiconductor Unit Shipments (Units in Millions)... 4 Figure 4: Device type manufacturing by equipment generation... 13 Figure 5: Leading Edge Fabs Required... 14 Figure 6: Second Generation Fabs Required... 15 Figure 7: Second-Generation Used Semiconductor Equipment Market Supply Forecast ($US B)... 16 Figure 8: Third Generation Fabs Required... 17 Figure 9: Trailing Edge Fabs Required... 18 v