Rock Mech. Lab. Towards Rock Mechanics in 22nd century! Population increase. Hokkaido Univ., JAPAN. Stop unreasonable CO 2 reduction!

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1 Population increase 1

2 CO 2 increases as population increases. Michaels & Stooksbury (1992) 2

3 Malthus (1798), "An Essay on the Principle of Population" Malthus first pointed out the danger of population increase. Population increases exponentially (1,2,4,8,16,32,,). Things for life increases arithmetically (1,2,3,4,5,6,,). Poverty occurs if things for life become short. Poverty limits population increase. Doing unlimited charities to poor people increases poor people and leads to the nation's catastrophes. Wikipedia 3

4 The principle of population influenced the evolution theory Malthus Human always tries to produce children more than available food. Increased people fight against the limited food. Wars, poverty, disease etc. occur. Darwin The same thing occurs in other lives as human and natural selection occurs. Individual lives which are suitable in the environment can get more food and produce their replicas more (posterity, children or babies). 4

5 Simulated result by Meadows (1972) Including no global warming threat Meadows et al. (1972), Limits to Growth 5

6 Population Towards Rock Mechanics in 22nd century! Logistic equation by Verhulst (1838) Logistic equation represents change in population of animal, insects, etc. in a limited space. Logistic equation is widely used as a basic model for research on groups of lives although many unrealistic shortcomings are pointed. Population increases exponentially at first. It converges to a certain number because of limitations of resources Time 6

7 Population Differenti al equation Solution dp dt is is Q P kp Q P : Population Q : Population 1 P Q Q 1 1 e P0 a : constant P 0 at : Population limit at t Time 7

8 R ates (per thousands) Towards Rock Mechanics in 22nd century! Causes of population increase Birth Death Mexico (Partida-Bush, 2005) Industrialization -> Improvements in nutrition, medical service etc. -> Decrease in death rate -> Population increase Lifestyle is fully developed (mechanization of agriculture, pension system, women education etc.) -> Birth rate decrease -> Population is stabilized The rich get richer and the poor get children! The Great Gatsby Year Japan Statistics and prediction on birth and death rates ider.com/the-greatgatsby-trailer

9 Population (billions) Population (billions) Towards Rock Mechanics in 22nd century! Prediction on population increase World Less developed regions More developed regions Year World (UN) Japan It will be saturated in future. However, acceleration of population stabilization in developing countries will be required Japan has to maintain population. Population of Japan is small and not a problem. Japanese are disappearing in slow motion and so far, there is no rescue plan. This year, only 1.2 million youth will turn 20, half as many as in (The Wall Street Journal, Jan. 20, 2011) Year 9

10 Wikipedia 10

11 Number of children a woman has in her life 2.08 children per woman is the critical number in Japan US Korea Italia Sweden UK France Japan nkawa/1550.html 11

12 Female critical fertility rate Advanced countries: 2.1 Cambodia: 2.5 Population in 36 mainly advanced countries was stabilized China, Thailand etc. also have less TFR than the critical value as advanced countries. One-child policy in China Free distribution of condoms and pills in Thailand 12

13 Population in US US population is increasing. Increase is mainly due to immigrants from Asia and Latin America. Number of homosexual Anglo-Saxon males is increasing. Anglo-Saxon females are having trouble to find heterosexual Anglo-Saxon males. Number of Anglo-Saxon children is decreasing. A German University President told me on Jan. 11, I forgot his name. 13

14 U.S. Census Bureau (2004) 14

15 U.S. Census Bureau (2004) 15

16 Population (0.1 billion) Towards Rock Mechanics in 22nd century! My calculation Assuming that the decrease in rate of population increase continues Will population show a peak at 9.6 billion around 2080? Will human be extinct due 2400? Year (AD) 16

17 Ethical ways Help women's education in developing countries to decrease birth rate Free distribution of pills and condoms in allowed countries Education in birth control Restrain of expansion of HIV infection Success in Thailand Enhancing UN to take twochild policy in allowed countries 17

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19 Other ways (half joke, half serious) Making people small Technically very easy, see horses, dogs, etc. Enhancement of homosexuality in allowed countries Moving to other planets Construction of space colonies at Lagrange points (see Gundam, Japanese SF animation). Lagrange points (Wikipedia) Wikipedia, Homosexuality 19

20 Space elevator Space terminal is constructed on the geostationary orbit The terminal is connected to the anchor on the Earth s ground by carbon nanotubes. Counterweight is necessary for balance. It takes several days to climb from the ground to the terminal by the climber. The climber consumes electricity of an ordinary nuclear power plant. Heat radiation is the most important issue because of the surrounding vacuum (no heat conduction). After Wikipedia 20

21 Space elevator Space ships with small power can leave from the space terminal and move within the solar system by using the flyby technique around Jupiter. An ordinary engine is needed to go outside the Galaxy. FlyBy technique, momentum_field.html 21

22 Colonization of Mars A plan by SpaceX, a US company people in years USD They will live self-sufficiently and make children. They would be life insurance for human. Mars One by a Dutch venture company More than 20 people in 20 years. Humans on Mars, allery/image_feature_261.html 22

23 Stop unreasonable population stabilization! Albert Gore Jr. and Lester R. Brown (PLAN B3.0) also stated "population stabilization is required" However, birth control is strictly prohibited in some countries to keep military strength (Gunnar Heinsohn, Söhne und Weltmacht (Sons & World Power)) It might lead to Eugenics. Ethnic cleansing by Nazi Germany 23

24 Forced abortion in China There are many cases of forced abortion by local governments in China because of the one-child policy. An example was reported in the Wall Street Journal, June 29,

25 Example of discussions Is population increase OK? Should we try to reduce it? If we should, how to do it? If we don't have to, how can we manage the shortages of food, water, resources etc? 25