Ecological Resilience and Regime Shifts: Evidence for Human and Climate Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems
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1 Ecological Resilience and Regime Shifts: Evidence for Human and Climate Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems Threshold Session Organizers: Anna Wachnicka 1 & Lynn Wingard 2 1 Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA 2 U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, USA
2 Session Goals Explore advances in our understanding of ecological resilience and the history of regime shifts in coastal and marine ecosystems in South Florida
3 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al. 2011
4 Florida Population Growth Source: U.S. Census 2010
5 Changes in Land Use Source:
6 Climate Change Impacts on Coastal and Estuarine Ecosystems freshwater wetlands mangroves Source: Wachnicka and Wingard, 2017
7 Natural & Anthropogenic Changes Make Ecosystems More Vulnerable To Abrupt Ecological Regime Shifts Source: Scheffer et al Source: Foley et al. 2015
8 Source: Foley et al. 2015
9 Detecting Signs Of Impending Large-Scale Ecological Regime Shifts In South Florida Estuaries Through The Lens Of Paleoecology Anna Wachnicka 1 & Lynn Wingard 2 1 SERC Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA 2 U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, USA
10 How Can Paleoecology Help Us Understand The Dynamics Of Regime Shifts In South Florida Estuaries? Identify the existence of ecological thresholds and longterm environmental processes leading to resilience loss & regime shifts Detecting frequency & duration of regime shifts between alternative states at timescales not accessible in the observed record Detecting changes in magnitude of variability of ecosystems Understand the contemporary and predict future biotic responses to climate change & anthropogenic stressors
11 Coring Locations Everglades National Park Miami Biscayne Bay Shark River Slough Taylor River Slough Core CAT-scan Gulf of Mexico Florida Bay Atlantic Ocean N Cores Analyzed
12 SR1A Florida Biscayne Bay NNB Florida Bay
13 Regime Shifts in Mean of % Assemblage Similarity in No Name Bank (NNA), Card Sound Bank (CBA) & Trout Cove (TC) Cores NNA TC CBA Florida Biscayne Bay NNA CBA TC Florida Bay Wachnicka and Wingard, 2017
14 Regime Shift in Variance of % Similarity in No Name Bank, Black Point & Card Sound Bank Cores NNA BPNA 1956 CBA Florida Biscayne Bay BPNA NNA CBA 1926 Florida Bay
15 Factors Affecting Biscayne Bay Ecosystem Deering Estate Cutler Wetlands Habitat loss (e.g., SAV) Everglades National Park L31E Flow-way Shift in community composition Micro- & Macroalgal blooms (nearshore areas) C-111 Spreader Canal Deteriorated water quality Saltwater encroachment Altered water circulation & residence time Drivers of Change Impacts
16 Cumulative Sums Of Standardize Anomalies Of Epiphytic Diatom Compositional Similarities In Biscayne Bay Fender Point N ETN (ug/g) ETP (ug/g) ETC (ug/g) chl a (ug/l) Water Depth (cm) Salinity (ppt) ph Temp ( C) Si (um) PO4 (um) NO2 (um) NH4 (um) NO3 (um) S Site Wachnicka & Browder 2016; 2017
17 sum of regime shift indices Major Restructuring of Diatom Assemblages Florida Bay & Biscayne Bay NNA FBA CBA TC RB NB BA Biscayne Bay Florida Bay Wachnicka & Wingard, 2017 Wingard et al. 2017
18 Sum of Regime Shifts Microbenthic Community Responses to Environmental Change, Featherbed Bank (Biscayne Bay) diatoms ostracodes foraminifera Wachnicka & Wingard, 2017 Wingard et al. 2017
19 Major Shifts In Microbenthic Assemblages In South Florida Cores 1960s Everglades National Park Gulf of Mexico 1980s 1956 ~1980s 1980s 1980s Atlantic Ocean
20 Conclusions 1. Nearshore areas of Biscayne Bay and NE Florida Bay, which are directly exposed to perturbations, showed larger and more frequent changes in the structure of diatom assemblages compared to distant bay locations 2. Significant increase in variance in % assemblage similarity was recorded at sites in Central Biscayne Bay, which may signal impending ecological regime shift in nearshore ecosystems in this region 3. The timing and magnitude of the changes varied among the coring locations, because the timing of occurrence of disturbances in different regions of the bays also varied
21 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Project Sponsors & Collaborators Technical Assistance
Anna Wachnicka & Lynn Wingard. SERC, Florida International University, Miami, FL USGS, Reston, VA
Responses of the South Florida Coastal and Estuarine Ecosystems to Climate Variability, Extreme Weather Events & Sea Level Rise over the last ~4,800 years Anna Wachnicka & Lynn Wingard SERC, Florida International
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