Drought Update November 23, 2004 WATF Meeting
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1 Drought Update November 23, 2004 WATF Meeting Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center presented at the Water Availability Task Force meeting, DOW, Denver, November 23, 2004 Prepared by Odie Bliss
2 WY2004 Highlights Record warmth in October Freezing drizzle storm for Halloween, cloudy Good early snows over SW Colorado Cold and snowcovered on the Western Slope midwinter Fairly dry and dull midwinter elsewhere A cold February Very warm and dry March Wet April -- Hurray! Oops, warm and dry again in May Cool and damp summer east of mountains Hot and dry to the west Moisture onslaught into Western Colorado in September
3 Water Year 2004 temperature departures from average 8 Water Year 2004 Departure from average, degree F Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys
4 Summer 2004 (May Sep) precipitation as a percent of the average
5 Water Year 2004 precipitation as a percent of the average
6 Summary A mild winter again Another year with below average snowmelt runoff Generous growing season precipitation east of the mountains Coolest summer in a looong time Improvements in soil moisture Reservoirs hung in there Significant runoff from rains
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8 Drought Monitor Map
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12 Colorado Precipitation Ranking
13 Climate divisions defined by Dr. Klaus Wolter of NOAA's Climate Diagnostic Center in Boulder, CO
14 Division 1-1 Grand Lake 1NW 35 Grand Lake 1 NW 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 30 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
15 Division 1-1 Taylor Park 30 Taylor Park 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated 25 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
16 Division 2 Grand Junction 16 Grand Junction WSFO 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated 14 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR Months MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
17 Division 2 Collbran 25 Collbran 2SW 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
18 Division 3 - Montrose 18 Montrose # Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated 16 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
19 18 16 Division 3 Cochetopa Creek Cochetopa Creek 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year 2nd Min Year Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
20 Division 3 -- Mesa Verde 35 Mesa Verde NP 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year 30 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
21 Division 4 - Center 12 Center 4SSW 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year 2005 Water Year 10 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
22 Division 4 Del Norte Del Norte 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Accumulated 2002 Accumulated Water Year Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
23 Division 5 Colorado Springs Colorado Springs 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated 30 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
24 Division 5 - Pueblo Pueblo WSO 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
25 Division 5 Buena Vista 18 Buena Vista 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Water Year Accumulated Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 16 Accumulated Precipitaton (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
26 Division 5 Canon City 25 Canon City 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
27 Division 6 Cheyenne Wells Cheyenne Wells 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year 2002 Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
28 25 Division 6 Rocky Ford Rocky Ford 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
29 Division 7 Akron Akron 4E 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 25 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
30 30 Division 7 - Leroy Leroy 5SW 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated 25 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
31 35 Division 8 Boulder Boulder 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 2005 Water Year 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year 30 Accumulated Precipitation (inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
32 Division 8 Cheesman 25 Cheesman 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated Precipitaton (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
33 Division 8 Kassler Kassler 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated 30 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
34 Division 8 Fort Collins 30 Fort Collins 2005 Water Year (Oct '04) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Period of Record Average Water Year 2002 WY Accumulated Precipitation (inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Month
35 30-Year Average October Maximum Temperatures
36 Oct 2004 Tmax
37 30-Year Average October Minimum Temperatures
38 Oct 2004 Tmin temperatures map
39 October 2004 Average Temperatures
40 Oct 2004 precipitation map
41 Precipitation: October 2004 Courtesy of Oregon Climate Service,
42 1-month Percent of Average Precipitation October 2004 Courtesy of Oregon Climate Service,
43 3 Month SPI
44 12 Month SPI
45 48 Month SPI
46 Fraction of Colorado in Drought Fraction of Colorado in Drought Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI ( Oct 2004) Calibration period is Data values produced by John Kleist. Year Fraction (in percent)
47 Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months
48 Projected Conditions at 0.5 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months
49 Projected Conditions at 0.8 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months
50 Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level 48 Month SPI at 12 months
51 Projected Conditions at 0.5 Probability Level 48 Month SPI at 12 months
52 Projected Conditions at 0.8 Probability Level 48 Month SPI at 12 months
53 How About CoCoRaHS?
54 Colorado Overview Precipitation 11/11/04 for the 24-hour ending at 7 am
55 CoCoRaHS Snow Maps Colorado Overview New Snowfall Map 11/20/2004 ending at 7:00 am
56 Colorado Overview New Snowfall Map 11/21/2004 ending at 7:00 am
57 For more information visit the CoCo RaHS Web site Support for this project provided by Informal Science Education Program, National Science Foundation and many local charter sponsors.
58 Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading click on Drought then click on Presentations
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