Analysis of the Relationship between Science Literacy and China s Socio-Economic Development

Transcription

1 Analysis of the Relationship between Science Literacy and China s Socio-Economic Development He Li China Research Institute for Science Popularization, Beijing, China Abstract--In this paper, is used the Vensen-PLE system dynamics software to build the simulation models. The data resource comes from China s civic science literacy survey ( ) of the Chinese Association for Science and Technology. Computational analysis of the contribution of the scientific quality of the GDP growth as well as science and technology, education and science. In addition there is a financial investment in the growth of science literacy. And there is an interactive feedback relationship between the improvement of science literacy and GDP growth along with science, technology, education and investment in science popularization. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the relationship between the improvement of science literacy and economic development in China. The enhancement of science literacy, education and the investment in science popularization is promoted in order to develop important conclusions and make proper recommendations. I. INTRODUCTION Since the latter part of the 20th Century, science and technology have become the primary factors in economic development and society s development. The effective application of science and technology, the two of which also have a close relationship with the population s science literacy Science literacy consists of four aspects: the spirit of science, scientific attitude, scientific knowledge and the scientific method. Between the four of them their structural formational purpose is to organize each of them into a whole with the ability to understand scientific thinking, scientific coordination and response capability.these three capabilities greatly promote the socio-economic development of a nation. At the same time the social and economic development in turn, promote the scientific spirit, scientific attitude, scientific knowledge and scientific methods for them to be carried out successfully and for the purpose of providing a bright future. The system of science literacy and the socio-economic system was inter-dependently connected and influentially promoted each other. An interactive feedback system is necessary and important in order to study the system. II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE A. Definition of Science Literacy Science literacy has been a concept with lasting interest and fascination, but there are many controversial concepts in science popularization s theoretical studies. Science literacy has been all along an important concept, which has become an even more important aspect and concern for citizens in daily life and a popular education slogan. [1] Scholars in the United States put forward the science literacy concept in the nineteen fifties, so as to emphasize knowledge, intelligence and basic literacy. In the 1970 s they expanded science literacy to include science and society, the nature of science, ethics and norms, science and technology. The studies of science literacy developed to its full implementation stage in the nineteen eighties. The American Association for the Advancement of Science, in their famous 2061 plan, through a description they put forward of the person who possesses science literacy who is defined as: Knowing that science, mathematics and technology are interrelated creations of human wisdom, great but there are still limitations. Understanding some of the key scientific concepts and principles; and having an understanding of nature and the world, and that of the world's diversity and unity; in personal and social life, to utilize scientific knowledge and have a scientific way of thinking. [2] The National Academy of Science believed that Science literacy for the people was related to personal decision-making, participation in society, culture and economics. Firms need to understand scientific knowledge, concepts and processes, Science literacy has different levels and the formation,improvement of and expansion of science literacy are life time endeavors, not only to be studied during school [3] The National Science Foundation believed that in a broad sense what was science in the end consists of science, mathematics, engineering and technology experts in their field of expertise and nature of work. How to assess the so-called 'scientific' information, and how can society engage in decision-making based on the aspects of science and engineering. [4] The Director of International public research, the Center for science literacy, Associate Dean of the University of Chicago Professor Jon D. Miller defined science literacy as a set of multi-dimensional measurements that are actually operational a set of measurements of the actual operational.[5] He defined the science literacy concept in a contemporary situation in three dimensions as follows: (1) understanding of the scientific principles and methods (scientific nature).(2) understanding of important terms and concepts of science(3) understanding of the impact of technology on society's awareness. Professor Miller's "Public Understanding of Science" mode has been gradually recognized by the international community and increasingly has become the public measure and comparison for science literacy as the basic reference standards.[6] Professor Miller also believed that because of the country's cultural differences, from this 158

2 third view point, that different countries have adopted some content measures of their own design, as science literacy is multi-dimensional [7] Judging from the literature search, early indicators of a civic scientific literacy framework for research was done by the Swedish scholar Neil. In the 1970 s, he studied amendments to its citizens plan as regards a controversial nuclear power plant. The study showed that the ability for the public to participate in the decision-making process depended on the decision-making level and understanding of the problems key issues. In numerous nations, science literacy has been defined very differently. Some scholars believed that the content of scientific literacy was very dynamic. They understood that science literacy was undergoing a deepening of awareness, social development and change. India's "basic science" (MSE) and the United States "scientific literacy were benchmarks on behalf of the scientific quality of both ends of the spectrum, which reflected the developing and developed countries and their national goals and national status. So China people's science literacy standards should be positioned somewhere between India's "basic science" and "Science for all Americans," Most nation s scholars have basically agreed with Professor Miller as regards a science literacy definition of the first two dimensions in their research. The process of scientific research and scientific investigation of the terminology index system was a sign of maturity. The third part of the more major dispute was based on the cultural differences background. Chinese scholars have discussed the definition of science literacy and its connotations in an extensive and in-depth manner. Standardized definitions can be found from the China Association for Science and Technology. In 1999,in order to develop a "universal scientific quality of the platform for Action Plan ( ).It defined Science literacy as an important component of citizens literacy. Citizens have basic science knowledge which means an understanding of science and generally refers to the quality of the necessary scientific and technological knowledge, a grasp of basic scientific methods, established scientific thinking, and advocating a scientific spirit. And for them to deal with the application of certain practical problems and the ability to participate in public affairs. which can be simplified into the "four sciences, the two capabilities." Concerning the aspect of the structure of science literacy, it is believed that science literacy included four factors: the spirit of science, scientific attitude, scientific knowledge and the scientific method. Science literacy is a major system, the core of which is scientific attitude.[8] B. Research on the relationship between the improvement of civic science literacy and society s- economic development Concerning the role of scientific literacy, Professor Zhu Xiaoming believes that it is very necessary to attach importance to improving the civic science literacy, if China wants to modernize, as civic science literacy is the foundation of a modern nation s prosperity and development [9] Scholar Shan Ying believes that science popularization and civic science literacy occupies important positions in the knowledge economy activities. The higher the level of civic science literacy, the stronger the economic development [10] Comparing the science literacy construction at home and abroad, Scholar Cheng Shou s analysis of the science literacy construction experience: beginning, emergence and strategy which is in three stages. In Portugal, the United States and other countries, the construction of action is divided into three types. They are special action, capacity building programs and international conferences, and for overseas through the reform of science education and traditional science popularization and for building the media platform to improve civic science literacy.[11] Concerning studies on the mechanism of science literacy Prof, Scholar Huang YuFeng s opinion was that citizen science literacy has an important impact on sustainable development through awareness of their environmental awareness, the industrial structure and lifestyle. In the many factors affecting the sustainable socio-economic development, science literacy is a fundamental constraining factor [12] This writer used data from a Chinese civic scientific literacy survey data performed (from 2001 to 2007) and analyzed the economic growth relationship. The calculations showed that the contribution of science literacy on the improvement of economic growth in the same period was about 5.10%[13] Throughout the existing research literature on the relationship between science literacy enhancement and economic and social development, there is a formidable consensus in recognizing the positive and substantive role played by science literacy in promoting economic and social development. C.Research on economic growth Quantitative methods of economic growth began with the economist Paul. H. Douglas s aggregate production function in In 1942 the economist J. Tinbergen proposed a new economic growth point of view, as the output of capital and labor inputs, as well as a function of time. In 1957 Professor Robert M. Solow unified the economic theory of production. He denied the traditional theory of economic growth in which capital accumulation is a decisive factor in economic growth. In his paper "technical change and the aggregate production function", he proposed the new point of view of technological progress as a decisive factor in economic growth. He included technological progress in the economic growth model. He first proposed measurement of technological progress s contribution to economic growth. He used the total factor productivity method to explain economic growth in the United States in the 1950s. The average annual GNP growth rate was 2.90% from 1929 to 1949, the contribution of capital investment was 0.32%, contribution of labor input was 1.09%, 159

3 technological progress contribution rate was 1.49%, with only 12.50% contribution from capital investment and labor input. While the remaining 87.50% of the growth to be attributed to the technological advances which was a total factor. Technological progress is the main source of economic growth in the United States [14] The economist Edward F Denison used data from 1929 to 1948 and calculated the annual average growth rate of the U.S. national income to be 2.90%, with only 48% of the contribution to be from the growth of capital and labor, the other 52% of the growth was not figured in. This is what is called "Dennison residuals [15] Professor Thodore W. Sulerch using the income approach estimates the investment in education, which is the most important investment in human capital, the rate of contribution to the economic growth of the U.S., of which the rate of contribution was 33% during the period from [16] The situation regarding research on the relationship between the science literacy and social and economic development at home and abroad is basically still stuck in the theoretical analysis phase; or some simple statistical analysis. The main problems are the following: The first and principal problem is that no one has established the relationship between science literacy and social and economic development in an interactive feedback system in order to build a model, in accordance with the scientific theories and methods of system analysis and simulation. Secondly, the logical structural analysis of a systematic system is lacking in the relationship between the population s science literacy and the socio-economic development of the various elements within the system. Thirdly there is the lack of a quantitative relationship between the various elements of the system. It is thus difficult to put forward practical suggestions in accordance with the reality and conditions for scenario analysis and presentation for the relationship between science literacy and the socio-economic development in the future. It is important and necessary to study and analyze the interactive feedback relationship between science literacy enhancement GDP growth, science and technology, education and investment in science popularization. (In China, we used science popularization according to Chinese characteristics, instead of science communication. III. MODEL SET This paper s purpose is to improve upon the study of the relationship dynamics between science literacy and China s socio-economic development. It provides a systematic process with many adjustment port model simulations and decision-making assessment methods to lay a solid foundation for further study in the future. A. Economic growth In accordance with the theory of economic growth, economic growth depends on three elements: investment, human resources and technology development. Human resources includes the population s physical fitness and scientific cultural qualities. Therefore, economic growth is represented by the following formula GDP=f (GDP, investment,population s physical fitness, science literacy,education,and science and technology) According to the Cobb - Douglas production function, the production growth is as follows: Y = A e 0 δt K α where Y Amount of output, on behalf of GDP A 0 Initial level of socio-technical K Capital stock L The total labor force S science literacy H population s physical fitness C education level δ The rate of technological progress / contribution to the value of other comprehensive factors α The output elasticity of capital β Output elasticity of human capital γ Output elasticity of science literacy ε Output elasticity of physical fitness Φ Output elasticity of the education level Taking the logarithm on both sides, the derivative can be obtained thusly. ΔY ΔK ΔL ΔS ΔH ΔC = α + β + γ + ε + φ + δ Y K L S H C where: Δ Y The rate of economic growth Y Δ K The growth rate of capital investment; K Δ L The growth rate of labor input L Δ S The growth rate of science literacy S Δ H The growth rate of physical fitness enhancement H Δ C The growth rate of education C L β S γ H ε C φ 160

4 It can be deduced from the above equation: ΔK Δ Y α / Contribution of capital investment growth K Y to output growth ΔL Δ Y β / The contribution of labor input growth to L Y output growth ΔS Δ Y γ / The contribution of science literacy growth S Y to output growth ΔH Δ Y ε / The contribution of physical fitness H Y ΔC Δ Y φ / The contribution of education to output C Y growth It can be set by the above-described logical relationships: 1. Total GDP GDP=GDP 0 (1+ GDP growth) T 2. GDP growth rate GDP growth rate= Contribution value of the capital growth + Contribution value of the labor force growth+ value of science literacy growth+ contribution value of physical fitness improvement + contribution value of education +Contribution value of a combination of other factors. B. Capital Growth Contribution Contribution value of the capital growth depends on capital contribution flexibility and the capital growth rate. Capital contribution flexibility comes from statistical calculation and capital growth which can use and include past data, or it can also be in accordance to the artificial setting. C. Contribution value of the labor force growth. Contribution of the labor-force growth depends on the labor contribution flexibility and labor force growth rate. Contribution flexibility of labor is determined by statistical calculations. The labor force growth rate is based on the change in the status of the population, generally on historical statistics. D. The contribution value of the population s physical fitness The population s physical fitness can be expressed by using a variety of indicators, Such as the population's average life expectancy, infant mortality, and so on. The contribution value of the population s physical fitness depends on the physical fitness flexibility and improved rate of physical fitness among the population. Physical fitness flexibility is determined by statistical calculations and the physical fitness data is from the historical statistical data E. The contribution value of education There are several general indicators to reflect the education quality of the population. In this paper, the average number of years of education is used. [17] F. The contribution value of science literacy According to the questionnaire and data sources, the scientific literacy of the population in this paper consists of four parts: scientific terms, the scientific point of view, the scientific method and scientific understanding. The scientific literacy index is weighted as the average of the above four parts The contribution value of science literacy growth depends on the contribution elasticity of science literacy and the growth rate of the science literacy. The increased value of the science literacy index is equal to the product of the science literacy index times its growth rate. The growth rate of science literacy depends on education, technology and science popularization investments. G. The contribution of science literacy to the GDP The contribution by science literacy to the GDP is divided into annual contribution and cumulative contribution, annual contribution=( the contribution to GDP of the science literacy /GDP growth rate)*100% The cumulative contribution is the cumulative result of the calendar year. H. Science literacy and the sustainability index There are numerous sustainability indexes that can be used, however in this paper there are three indexes that are used, Chinese development index, the sustainable use of resources index and innovation index. These three indicators have a close relationship with citizen s science literacy, and the relationship between them can be calculated using statistical methods. Where SLI-RCDI, SLI-RCUI the SLI-STDI are expressions for the correlation function between the three indexes of the population s science literacy According to the above, definition and structural analysis is needed to build a system dynamics model flow diagram, which is shown in Figure 1 161

5 <Time> output elasticity of capital The growth rate of capital investment The contribution of education growth output elasticity of education growth <Time> The growth rate of education <Time> Contribution of capital investment growth Other factors contribution rate The contribution of labor input growth to output growth output elasticity of labor input <Time> The growth rate of labor input <Time> GDP growth GDP growth rate The contribution of physical fitness Output elasticity of physical fitness The growth rate of physical fitness enhancement Annual contribution GDP accumulated contribution the contribution of science literacy growth science literacy growth output elasticity of science literacy China development index science literacy accumulated value Investment in education Rate of investment in Rate of Science and education technology investment <Time> <Time> Billion investment growth Total investment Investment in science and technology <Time> The growth rate of science literacy <GDP> Rate of Science popularization input <Time> value of science literacy index growth science popularization input science literacy index Sustainable use of resources index Technological innovation index SLI-RCDI SLI-RCUI SLI-STDI Figure 1 system dynamics model flow diagram of the population science literacy and socio-economic development III. PARAMETERS DEFINED A.The proportion of investment in education In the process of transformation from a planned economy to a market economy in China, there has been developed an education investment system along with certain policy changes. Whether education investment can fully meet the needs of the development of education or not has been the focus of various scholars attention and research. Scholar Wei Binxian [18] believed that education investment was a healthy developmental trend and he felt that four indicators were needed to express this. The two main indicators being the percentage of total financial investment in education as a percentage of the GDP or GNP and investment in education spending, The former marks the actual level of national investment in education, the latter is unchanging. Strict indicators were used not only to measure the efforts of the government investment in education, but also as an important criterion for judging the rationality of educational investment Scholar Zhao Hong-Bin, according to the data in "funding for education in the China Statistical Yearbook [19], used the time series method, based on the above indicators regarding the proportion of educational financial investment in China [20] year GDP (One hundred million) TABLE 1 FINANCIAL EDUCATION EXPENDITURE TABLES FROM 2000 TO 2009 financial education The actual percentage Estimated GDP expenditure of GDP ratio Gap of The total amount invested Gap ratio of input (%) (%) (One hundred million) (%)

6 Based on the data, cartography ratio of financial education expenditures to the GDP (appendix 1). Use SPSS12.0 statistical analysis, to determine the educational investment growth rate (appendix 2). Curve fitting cubic preferably the largest correlation coefficient. Fitting results: (calculation see appendix 3) Y= X X X 3 ;R 2 =0.939 Considering our country's investment policy in education the ratio of investment in education should be expanding. Therefore, the linear growth model would be more appropriate. B. The proportion of investment in science and technology Comprehensive analysis of the annual inspection of Chinese statistics, China Education Yearbook and literature, investment in science and technology results are shown in table 2. Logarithmic regression using exponential and linear regression (Appendix 4), the linear regression and exponential regression correlation is better, but taking into account the investment in science and technology which has not been declining drastically, an exponential decline therefore achieves better results. (Appendix 5) Y= LN(X) ;R 2 = C. The proportion of science popularization investment Science popularization investment is growing, but due to the rapid GDP growth, the increase in investment in science popularization has become less. So, from , the proportion of science popularization investment basically dropped during those years. But a larger proportional increase was realized after Based on the mapping of the data in Table 3, the investment trend in science and technology is shown in appendix 5-7. Investment in science and technology basically results in a logarithmic decline which can be seen from appendix 8-9. statistical regression analysis in accordance with the laws of the logarithm [21] Adding the data, the curve actually represents a parabolic change (Appendix 10). Preferably, the quadratic curve fitting results (Appendix 11) Y=b 0 +b 1 t+b 2 t 2 = t T 2 ;R 2 =0.841 D. The relationship between the growth rate of investment and science literacy 1. Total investment Total investment =education investment+science and technology investment +science popularization investment =[(0.0972*(Time-2000) )+ ( *LN(Time-1999) )+ ( *LN( Time-1999 ) )]*GDP TABLE 2 THE PROPORTION OF INVESTMENT IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY(ONE HUNDRED MILLION) year GDP investment in science and technology the proportion of investment in science and technology Data from:the same to table 1 TABLE 3 RATIO OF SCIENCE INVESTMENT TO GDP year GDP science popularization investment proportion of science popularization investment(%) E

7 2. Growth rate of science literacy Approved by the National Bureau of Statistics in 1992, the China Association for Science and Technology formal implementation. The first Chinese public attitudes towards science and technology survey, which was taken and illustrated in a sample survey done on average once every two years. So far we have completed eight national surveys. In view of the match between the survey items and statistical methods, here are the selected data of Year 4. Among them, the survey results of the science literacy and total scores are shown in Table 4. Science literacy scores and funding data are shown in Table 5. In order to facilitate the analysis there is an extraction of some data from Table 5, see table 6 (appendix 12) As can be seen from appendix 12, are the changes of the variation of the logarithm of science literacy. The fitting regression, with the results as follows: Y=13.6Ln(total investment) ;r 2 = (1) Variation of the growth rate of science literacy in comparison to investment From Table 5, extracting the partial data constituting the table 7. TABLE 4 THE SCIENCE LITERACY INDEX(%) index average score score of scientific terms score of scientific view score of scientific method Score of the relationship between science and society year education investment(one hundred million yuan) TABLE 5 SCIENCE LITERACY SCORE AND FUNDING DATA R & D Total Total investment Expenditure score of (One hundred (One hundred science million yuan) million yuan) literacy Science popularization investment One hundred million yuan) Increase value in investment The growth in value of science literacy Billion investment growth rate TABLE 6 THE DATA OF TOTAL INVESTMENT INPUT AND SCIENCE LITERACY year total investment total score of science literacy TABLE 7 THE ADDED VALUE OF THE INVESTMENTS AND SCIENCE LITERACY year Total total score of science The added value of the The growth in value of the investment literacy investments science literacy Billion investment growth rate

8 Interpolation mapping the change of a one billion yuan growth rate of investment in science literacy with the change of the total investment,appendix12,showing exponential variation It shows in exponential variation the growth rate of science literacy to investment.the curve fitting results are as follows: Y=0.002EXP( T); R 2 = Capital growth rate According to the theory of economic growth, material and financial capital investment are the main drivers of economic growth, especially in the initial stage of economic development. According to the Statistical Yearbook of the calendar year [22], from , China's investment rate (Table 8). As can be seen from Table 8, China's investment rate has been experiencing a growth rate from 2000 to 2004, a gradual decline from 2005 to 2008 and a sharp increase beginning in The investment growth rate also basically shows the same trend. It is a special case with a changed and extensive capital growth rate in 2008 and 2009, excluding these two years of data. It is plotted on a capital growth rate as follows, basically showing logarithmic change.(appendix 13,14,15) E. The growth rate of the labor force According to the China Statistical Yearbook from 2000 to 2011data[23], as well as the society s labor ratio and the labor force participation rate and the statistical results[24], Calculated China's 2000 labor added value and labor growth rate. The results are shown in Table 9. TABLE 8 THE INVESTMENT RATE AND CAPITAL GROWTH RATE FROM 2000 TO 2009 IN CHINA year investment rat capital growth rate Data from: Statistical Yearbook of the calendar year, from , Cnina Investment from 2000to Figure 2 Chinese capital growth variation from 2000 to 2009 year Investment rate capital growth rate TABLE 9 TOTAL POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE GROWTH RATE FROM 2000 TO 2009 IN CHINA year total population population age from Society s labor Labor force Labor The growth rate of Labor force 15to 60 ratio participation rate incremental labor

9 Using logarithmic fitting results (Appendix16-17) Y= LN(year) ;R 2 = F. Increase the speed by which the quality of health is improved. In general, the table reflects the average life expectancy of a person with a disability-free life along with an expectation that the quality of China s health care system will improve. According to China s 2000 population "the fifth census" survey results, scholar Feng Huaizhu[25] forecast the average life expectancy table. See Table 10. According to the data in 2000, China's population "the fifth census" survey results and Table 10, reference to the relevant research [26], examining the speed by which the population improved its physical fitness in China. In appendix 18,it can be seen that between the years ,the speed at which the population improved its physical fitness, basically shows the trend of the S-type regression analysis, The curve evaluation shown in appendix18,19,20; S type regression analysis results are as follows: Y= EXP ( b 0 +b 1 /T ) = EXP ( /T ) ;R 2 =0.350 The growth model of logistic regression analysis below Y=1/(1/U+b 0 b 1 t )=1 ( 1/ * (T-2000) ); R 2 =0.737 Exponential regression results are as follows: Y=b0 * EXP (b 1 *(T-2000) )=0.0053*EXP ( *(T-2000));R 2 =0.745 As can be seen from the above results, the exponential regression results are a little better. But for the law of diminishing marginal benefit of investment the logistic growth trend is more realistic. Therefore, the growth trend results in the logistic regression model which is used for the simulation study TABLE 10 THE AVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCY TABLE FROM 2001TO 2020 IN CHINA year T(time) total male female 1+t*r life expectancy life expectancy 1+t*r life expectancy TABLE 11 THE SPEED AT WHICH THE PHYSICAL FITNESS AND WELL BEING OF CHINA S POPULATION IMPROVED, FROM 2000 TO 2009 year the average life expectancy the average life expectancy growth value increase improve speed of the populations physical fitness

10 G. Cultural quality of the population The basic measures needed to improve the cultural quality of the population include: increasing the number of years of education and the implementation of a higher quality educational system [27]. Between them, the average number of years of education is the most important measurement index. Regarding the average number of years of education, the Chinese scholars have conducted extensive research [28,29] wherein scholar Tangjia Long in his doctoral dissertation, "Source of economic growth in China ( ) gives more detailed data[30] Based on the data in the Appendix 21, the China Statistical Yearbook and China's human resources situation, "White Paper, [31] illustrated in Table 12. In the data mapping Table 12 which can be seen, the average number of years of schooling experience and its exponential growth in the nation. (Appendix 22, 23) In accordance with Appendix Figure 22 the average number of years of education and its growth trend in regression analysis using SPSS statistical software. The Curve assessment graph is in appendix 23, the results are the output as seen in Appendix 24. As can be seen from the output: S simulation regression, the results are poor; the better results are in the logistic curve regression; but exponential regression is best with the result being the following: Y= EXP ( *T ); R 2 =0.729 H. The growth rate of science literacy The growth rate of the science literacy is calculated by the model. I.Technical contributions variations Technical contribution value is determined by the value of the real growth rate of GDP in a particular year, along with the capital growth rate, labor force growth and its contribution value. The physical fitness of the population helps to improve the contribution value and the science literacy growth contribution value as well as population and cultural development. Technical contribution value (Contribution value of a combination of other factors)=the GDP actual growth rate-( Contribution value of the capital growth +Contribution value of the labor force growth+ value of science literacy growth+ contribution value of physical fitness improvement + contribution value of education) Actual Cobb - Douglas (CW Cobb, Paul. H. Douglas) production function as directly calculated 1. GDP growth rate Gross Domestic Product referred to as the GDP, illustrates that in a given period (quarter or year), the economy of a country or region, the value of all final goods and services produced, is often recognized as the best indicator of the measure of national economic conditions. It not only reflects a country's economic performance, but also can reflect a country's national strength and wealth. According to the China Statistical Yearbook of a calendar year and related research[32,33], calculated out the GDP output and growth rate from 2000 to 2010, as well as the growth rate of capital stock and capital stock as shown in Table GDP growth trend GDP growth data in Table 13, appendix25, GDP growth shows that there is no significant variation. SPSS regression analysis, the coefficient of determination is a very small(appendix 26),and is difficult to determine the corresponding equation China s economic growth rate reached its peak in 2007, and then began to decline and then began to grow again..this most likely was due in part to the 4 trillion rmb economic stimulus plan which began in November 2008[34] 3. Technical contribution value According to the science literacy data investigation which has been completed in China, formulated to determine the growth of the science literacy (Table 14); reuse Cobb - Douglas production function (CW Cobb, Paul. H. Douglas), the calculation of the technical contribution value (other factors contribution rate). Besides factors other than education, research and development and science literacy, the generalized technology factor contribution rate which was 10.14% in TABLE 12 THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF YEARS OF EDUCATION AND THE GROWTH RATE OF THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF YEARS OF EDUCATION. year average years of education the growth rate of the average number of years of education

11 TABLE 13 TOTAL GDP AND GROWTH RATE OF CAPITAL STOCK FROM 2000 TO 2010 IN CHINA year GDP index The growth rate Constant current price GDPindex increase in Capital stock of the capital At current prices Constant prices prices growth growth rate value stock rate Note (1)Previously calculated in accordance with the 2000 constant price before After 2005 it is in accordance with the 2005 constant prices (2)1978=100 index growth 1978=100 (3) The capital stock is calculated according to fixed prices 1978 = 100 (4)Data sources can see: Nalanrongruo, , China's per capita gross domestic product (GDP)index http://niuma99.blog.163.com/blog/static/ TABLE 14 GROWTH RATE OF SCIENCE LITERACY score average score of science literacy average growth rate of science literacy J. Contribution of the elasticity Use of the previously defined parameters and Cobb - Douglas production function (CW Cobb, Paul. H. Douglas), the same can be used to calculate the contribution to the elasticity of the major factors that affect economic growth. The modulus of elasticity of the major factors that affect the economic growth and the contribution to GDP in 2009 see Table 15. K. Relationship parameters of the development index and the science literacy Use of the development index and score of the population s science literacy, can be obtained as listed in Table 16 citizens science literacy development index, along with the sustainable use of resources correlation coefficient between the index and the innovation index. TABLE 15 THE MODULUS OF ELASTICITY OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECTED THE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE CONTRIBUTION TO GDP Estimates of elasticity Contribution to GDP growth(%) capital The amount of labor education level population physical fitness science literacy technology progress (Residuals) TABLE 16 CORRELATION COEFFICIENT OF SCIENCE AND DEVELOPMENT INDEX year Average score of science literacy China development index Sustainable use of resources index innovation index. index value Correlation coefficientsli-rcdi index Correlation coefficient(sli-rcui) index Correlation coefficient(sli-stdi)

12 IV. ANALYSIS OF THE SIMULATION RESULTS A.The analysis of existing unchanged policy The so-called current unchanged policy refers to the actual data in accordance with the related factors in recent years, changes in the laws of statistical regression simulation. The major simulation analysis of this part is to analyze the science literacy index, the contribution of the science literacy to the growth of GDP, and the GDP growth situation. Simulation time range:from 2000 to 2050 The main factor which affects the science literacy growth is the science popularization investment. The science popularizations investment average per year was 791 million yuan from 2000 to But it increased sharply to billion yuan from 2008 to Therefore, this section is divided into two kinds of simulation analysis. 1. Science literacy index growth conditions a) Analysis of the changes from 2000 to 2007 In accordance with the actual changes from 2000 to 2007, changes of the science popularization investment ratio showed a downward trend of the index. The simulation analysis of exponential regression: Science popularization in vestmentratio = 8.8E-05 * EXP( *(Time-1999)) b) Simulation results are shown in Appendix 30 As can be seen from the Appendix 30, the science literacy index (score), and the growth trend shows a logarithmic trend as growth is gradually slowed down from about As for analog value and the actual survey of several years, near values are relatively close with the error rate not exceeding 5%, in line with the actual changes. In addition, and in accordance with the current changes in trends, the scientific literacy score in 2050 will reach (Appendix26) TABLE 17 SCIENCE LITERACY SCORE S IN THE MAIN YEARS year Analog value Survey values Error value Error rate % Contribution to GDP growth, see Appendix 27 TABLE 18 IMPROVING THE EFFECT OF SCIENCE LITERACY AND ITS CONTRIBUTION TO THE GDP year Annual contribution Cumulative contribution

13 3. GDP growth rate (appendix 28) TABLE 19 GDP GROWTH RATE year Annual growth forecast Actual accounting value Forecasting minus accounting Error rate% Total GDP (appendix 29) TABLE 20 TOTAL GDP year GDP forecast Actual accounting value Forecasting minus accounting Error rate% B. Control policy simulation analysis According to the policy scenario, it is a simulation analysis after the adjusted growth rate of investment capital, investment in proportion to education, the proportion of science popularization investment, the labor force growth rate and other key factors. 1. The adjustment of the investment growth rate and the basic parameters. China's investment rate is two times the world average (20%),and China is one of the countries with the highest investment rates in the world. China's current rate of investment is higher than other countries who were at a similar stage of development in history. Such as the Japanese investment in the economic take-off stage. roughly their investment between 30% -35%, Korea being less than 37%[35]. Therefore, China's investment rate should be in decline; with the investment growth rate adjusted to 1%, which is a more appropriate figure. Over the years, China's investment in education has been less than 4%, and thus there is a considerable gap between China's planned education investment and China s actual education investment The labor growth rate, the cultural literacy improvement and the rate of physical fitness improvement, the parameters of which have not changed so quickly and there still is used the original statistical regression equation. 2. Simulation analysis is used for keeping the proportion of science popularization investment in accordance with the existing trend 170

14 a) Science literacy index The simulation results in Appendix 30, illustrating the science literacy scores which are shown in Table 21 As can be seen from Table 21:In 2050 the science literacy score is only 75.31; simulation results are 83.76, which is down 8.46 points TABLE 21 THE SIMULATION SCIENCE LITERACY INDEX year score of science literacy Analog of the original trend(%) result of adjust the investment rate (%) minus Rate of decline b) Total GDP TABLE 22 THE CHANGE OF TOTAL GDP year GDP (One hundred million yuan) Analog of the original trend result of adjusting the investment rate minus Rate of decline Simulation analysis of the proportional increase of science popularization investment Over the years, the proportion of China's science popularization investment, which has been very low, less than the total GDP output, the figure being 1:10000.If it was over 1:10000,science popularization investment could reach 0.018% by Obviously, this is greatly different from the country's socio-economic development requirements and obviously there must be a continuation to improve the science popularization capital investment level The simulation analysis of supposing that science popularization investment capital input level reaches 1 and 1%. a) Score of science literacy (appendix 30) TABLE 23 SIMULATION SCORE OF SCIENCE LITERACY score of science literacy year Increased to 1% Increased to 1 the actual level of