Рабочая программа дисциплины «Корпоративный форсайт»

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1 Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» Программа дисциплины «Корпоративный форсайт» для направления «Менеджмент» и «Управление в сфере науки, технологии и инноваций», подготовки магистра Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования "Национальный исследовательский университет "Высшая школа экономики" Институт статистических исследований и экономики знаний Рабочая программа дисциплины «Корпоративный форсайт» для направления «Менеджмент» подготовки магистра Авторы программы: Вишневский К.О., к.э. н., Утверждена Академическим руководителем магистерской программы «Управление в сфере науки, технологий и инноваций» 31 августа 2017 года, протокол : /СС-2 Академический руководитель образовательной программы Д. Майснер Москва, 2017 Настоящая программа не может быть использована другими подразделениями университета и другими вузами без разрешения подразделения-разработчика программы

2 Corporate Foresight 2 1. Introductory note Program authors: Konstantin Vishnevskiy General Description of the Program: The course is delivered to master students of The National Research University - Higher School of Economics/HSE. It is delivered in modules. The course length is 114 academic hours in total of which 32 hours are class room hours for lectures and seminars and 82 hours are devoted to self study. Academic control forms are one written exam and one home assignment divided into two parts. The course contains 11 topics listed in 3 groups which are mutually exclusive but collectively exhaustive to cover the subject. Pre-requisites Basics of economics and / or management. Basics in Strategic Planning and Foresight. Basics in Strategies in STI Management. Interdisciplinary and systemic thinking. Course Objective The course spans 1 academic module. The teaching is based on wide range of cutting edge materials devoted to Strategic Foresight for Corporations and extensive practical experience gained by the authors during projects with leading Russian companies. Lectures are designed to deliver existing methodological frameworks of Foresight for companies and domestic and international experience of using this approach in business planning and strategic decision-making. Each lecture is accompanied by a seminar assumed individual and/or group work. These seminars give students opportunity to transform obtained knowledge into practical skills that will be useful in corporate planning activities and strategic management. Course Language: English. Abstract The beginning of the 21 th century is characterized by accelerating pace of scientific and technological progress. It becomes evident in this framework that there is an urgent need for companies in identifying vectors of concentrating resources on those areas that can become a driver for rapid but sustainable business development. As evidenced the world practice, one of the most effective long-term forecasting tools for economic and technological development of the company, providing a comprehensive view of the complex and diverse factors determining the dynamics of supply and demand in the relevant markets, coupled with technological trends, is a Strategic Foresight. The main feature of Strategic Foresight for companies is the fact that it focuses not on the identification of the most probable future, but on the formation of a priorities system and the condi-

3 tions necessary for their implementation the system of measures in the form of roadmap and favorable institutional environment. The course will consist of 2 basic streams a lecture and a seminar. Lectures and seminars are based on recent academic work from different scientific perspectives; introduce case studies and state of the art approaches applied by practitioners. The combination of lectures and seminars enable participants to get much better insight into the content of innovation s black boxes. Moreover seminars consist of introduction lectures followed by student s self study to solve a predefined task. For those who need 4 credits the course presupposes extra task on the essence of foresight. 3 Training Objectives Development of corporate planning activities skills. Training of using corporate Foresight in priority-setting. Training of employing roadmapping in company s decision-making. Competencies Knowledge of methods for corporate foresight. Knowledge of best foresight practices at companies. Ability to plan and launch foresight projects. Skills to use corporate foresight in priority-setting. Skills to use roadmapping in decision-making. Target audience Master students

4 2. Thematic Plan a) lectures 4 Corporate Foresight for management Instruments of corporate Foresight Topic Total academic hours Lectures (class hours) The concept of strategic corporate Foresight The rationale of strategic corporate Foresight Corporate Foresight in strategic management and business planning total Self study Integrated roadmapping Priority setting in corporate innovation management Scenario development with strategic corporate Foresight Interpretation of scenarios Technology and market roadmapping Management of corporate Foresight Corporate Foresight and integrated roadmapping for decision-making Expert procedures in strategic corporate Foresight total Planning corporate Foresight projects total Total b) seminars The seminars section includes introductory presentation, interim presentation / individual consultations and students presentations. An introductory session highlights the phenomena in discussion, introduces the theoretical background and practical applicability. Supervision of students will be offered using a mid term interim presentation of additional information and facts by the supervisor and individual consultations during the seminar. Following these introductory sessions students will make presentations in small groups aimed at increasing absorption of lecture materials. Topic Total academic hours Class hours Introductory presentation 4 4 Interim presentation / individual consultations Presentations Total Self study

5 3. Basic literature 5 R. Rohrbeck, Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm, Physica, R. Vecchiato, C. Roveda, Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77 (2010) C. Daheim, G. Uerz, Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend based logics to open foresight, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. 20 (2008) F. Ruff, Corporate foresight: integrating the future business environment into innovation and strategy, International Journal of Technology Management. 34 (2006) 278. G. Reger, Technology foresight in companies: from an indicator to a network and process perspective, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. 13 (2001) H. von der Gracht, C. Vennemann, I. Darkow, Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development, Futures. 42 (2010) I. Rollwagen, J. Hofmann, S. Schneider, Improving the business impact of foresight, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. 20 (2008) J. Kaivo-oja, Towards Integration of Innovation Systems and Foresight Research in Firms and Corporations: The Classical Takeuchi-Nonaka Model, C.H. Willyard, C.W. McClees, Motorola s Technology Roadmap Process, Research Management. 30 (1987) D. Barker, D.J.H. Smith, Technology foresight using roadmaps, Long Range Planning. 28 (1995) D.A. Beeton, R. Phaal, D.R. Probert, Exploratory roadmapping for foresight, International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning. 4 (2008) Education control forms Final control (F): written exam (80 minutes multiple choice and open-ended questions exam) Seminar (S): home assignment which includes oral presentation in groups at the end of the seminar. The overall course grade (10-point scale) is calculated as a sum of G = 0,4 F + 0,6 S The overall course grade G (10-point scale) includes results achieved by students in their exam F, seminar (S); it is rounded up to an integer number of points. Summary Table: Correspondence of ten-point to five-point system s marks Ten-point scale [10] 1 unsatisfactory 2 very bad 3 bad 4 satisfactory

6 5 quite satisfactory 6 good 7 very good 8 nearly excellent 9 excellent 10 brilliant 6 5. Programme Content Module 1 - Corporate Foresight for management Topic 1. The concept of strategic corporate Foresight Need for Foresight in Companies International and Russian practice of corporate Foresight S. Mendonça, Futures research at DaimlerChrysler: socio-technology at the core of the corporate knowledge system, (2001). T. Schwair, Inventing the Future, Not Only Predicting the Future-Futures Research at Siemens AG, Corporate Technology, Futures Research Quarterly. (2001). A. Alsan, Corporate foresight in emerging markets: Action research at a multinational company in Turkey, Futures. 40 (2008) Topic 2. The rationale of strategic corporate Foresight Integration of corporate Foresight in company functions S. Mendonça, Futures research at DaimlerChrysler: socio-technology at the core of the corporate knowledge system, (2001). T. Schwair, Inventing the Future, Not Only Predicting the Future-Futures Research at Siemens AG, Corporate Technology, Futures Research Quarterly. (2001). A. Alsan, Corporate foresight in emerging markets: Action research at a multinational company in Turkey, Futures. 40 (2008) K. Vishnevskiy, O. Karasev, A Toolkit for Integrated Roadmaps: Employing Nanotechnologies in Water and Wastewater Treatment, in: D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, A. Sokolov (Eds.), Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013: pp Topic 3. Corporate Foresight in strategic management and business planning Changes in company s strategic documents on the basis of Foresight Directions of using corporate Foresight in companies

7 7 Vishnevskiy K., Karasev O., Meissner D. Integrated roadmaps and corporate Foresight as tools of innovation management: The case of Russian companies // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. (2015) Vol. 90, part B. No. January. P R. Rohrbeck, J.O. Schwarz, The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 80 (2013) T. Heger, R. Rohrbeck, Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 79 (2012) D. Jarratt, D. Stiles, How are methodologies and tools framing managers' strategizing practice in competitive strategy development? British Journal of Management. 21 (2010) Module 2 - Instruments of corporate Foresight Topic 1. Priority setting in corporate innovation management Outcomes and challenges of priority setting for companies Priority setting for corporations and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) R. Rohrbeck, H.G. Gemünden, Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 78 (2011) C. Holmes, M. Ferrill, The application of Operation and Technology Roadmapping to aid Singaporean SMEs identify and select emerging technologies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 72 (2005) M.K. Peter, D.G. Jarratt, The practice of foresight in long-term planning, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. (2013). Topic 2. Scenario development with strategic corporate Foresight Scenario matrix Quantitative scenarios G. Ringland, The role of scenarios in strategic foresight, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77 (2010) M. Amer, T.U. Daim, A. Jetter, A review of scenario planning, Futures. 46 (2013) Mietzner, D. & Reger, G. Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning Vol. 1, No. 2 (2005) Topic 3. Interpretation of scenarios Integration of company s scenario into socio-economic framework Qualitative scenarios F. Lizaso, G. Reger, Linking roadmapping and scenarios as an approach for strategic technology planning, International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning. 1 (2004)

8 K. Moyer, Scenario Planning at British Airways A Case Study. Long Range Planning, 29, (1996) G. Ringland, The role of scenarios in strategic foresight, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77 (2010) Topic 4. Technology and market roadmapping Roadmapping for companies on the basis of priority-setting Links between elements of the roadmap R. Wells, R. Phaal, C. Farrukh, D. Probert, Technology roadmap for a service organization, Research Technology Management. 47 (2004) R.E. Albright, T.A. Kappel, Technology Roadmapping: Roadmapping the Corporation, Research- Technology Management. 46 (2003) S. Lee, Y. Park, Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 72 (2005) Technology Planning for Business Competitiveness: A Guide to Developing Technology Roadmaps, Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, Topic 5. Integrated roadmapping Integration of market and technology roadmaps Choosing relevant roadmap visualization Vishnevskiy K., Karasev O., Meissner D. Integrated roadmaps and corporate Foresight as tools of innovation management: The case of Russian companies // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. (2015) Vol. 90, part B. No. January. P S. Lee, Y. Park, Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 72 (2005) J. H. Lee, R. Phaal, S.-H. Lee, An integrated service-device-technology roadmap for smart city development, Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2013) 80 (2) Topic 6. Corporate Foresight and integrated roadmapping for decision-making Stakeholders analysis Strategic decision-making on the basis of corporate Foresight and integrated roadmapping

9 9 Vishnevskiy K., Karasev O., Meissner D. Integrated roadmaps and corporate Foresight as tools of innovation management: The case of Russian companies // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. (2015) Vol. 90, part B. No. January. P M. Godet and P. Durance. Strategic Foresight for Corporate and Regional Development. DU- NOD - UNESCO R. Vecchiato, Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79 (2012) Module 3 - Management of corporate Foresight Topic 1. Expert procedures in strategic corporate Foresight Engagement of all relevant stakeholders Expert groups and interviews: corporate level features I.-L. Darkow, The involvement of middle management in strategy development Development and implementation of a foresight-based approach, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. (2014). C.-Y. Hung, W.-Y. Lee, D.-S. Wang, Strategic foresight using a modified Delphi with end-user participation: A case study of the ipad s impact on Taiwan's PC ecosystem, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 80 (2013) G.P. Hodgkinson, R. Whittington, G. Johnson, M. Schwarz, The role of strategy workshops in strategy development processes: formality, communication, co-ordination and inclusion, Long Range Planning 39 (2006) G. Tichy, The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (2004) Topic 2. Planning corporate Foresight projects Launching Foresight in companies Defense of project of Foresight study R. Phaal, C. Farrukh, D. Probert, T-plan: the fast start to technology roadmapping: planning your route to success, Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK, C. Battistella, The organisation of Corporate Foresight: A multiple case study in the telecommunication industry, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. (2013). J. Voros, A generic foresight process framework, Foresight 5 (2003) R. Vecchiato, Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 79 (2011) Extra content for those who need 4 credits Essence of Foresight Evolution of Foresight practices

10 10 Introduction to frequently used methods for Foresight and strategic planning Ackoff, R.L. (1981). Creating the Corporate Future, John Wiley and Sons, New York. Flanagan, K., Uyarra, E., Laranja, M. (2011). Reconceptualising the policy mix for innovation, Research Policy, 40, 5, Georghiou, L., Harper, J.C., Keenan, M., Miles, I., Popper, R. (2008). The Handbook of Technology Foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. Miles, I., Saritas, O. and Sokolov, A. (2016). Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation, Springer. Meissner D., Gokhberg L., Sokolov A. (eds.) (2013) Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future - Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies. Springer, Heidelberg/ New York/ Dordrecht/ London, Springer, Berlin, pp UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual.