Myanmar Offshore Oil & Gas Investment Opportunity September 2015

Transcription

1 Myanmar Offshore Oil & Gas Investment Opportunity September 2015

2 Reader Advisories The information in this presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "seek", "anticipate", plan", "continue", "estimate", "demonstrate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", could", "might", "should", "believe", "would" and similar expressions and include statements relating to, among other things, the anticipated ongoing strategy of Canadian Foresight Group Pte. Ltd. (CFG) and CFG Energy Pte. Ltd. and development, drilling and acquisition opportunities and plans for CFG and the anticipated performance of CFG s properties. Such forward-looking statements or information is provided for the purpose of providing information about the current expectations and plans relating to CFG and its current and future oil and gas assets (the CFG Assets"). Readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other purposes, including making investment decisions. In particular, this document contains forward looking statements pertaining to: CFG s corporate areas of focus; CFG s capital raising plans; CFG s operational and development plans and the timing thereof; the quality and characteristics of the CFG Assets; expected performance in 2014 and beyond; the anticipated performance of the properties to be explored and developed and the timing of certain matters related thereto; CFG s capital budget requirements; the proposed fundraising, the price per share, the use of proceeds for such offering, the levels of participation of insiders in such offering and the timing of certain matters related thereto; the expected operational plans, including preparation, exploration, drilling and optimization activities, and the anticipated results therefrom; expected capital cost reductions; and matters ancillary or related to the foregoing list. In addition, please note that information relating to estimated reserves and resources are deemed to be forward-looking information, as it involves the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves described can be economically produced in the future. The forward looking statements in this presentation are based on certain assumptions, including, without limitation: the quantity of reserves and resources associated with the CFG Assets; the oil and natural gas production levels of the CFG Assets; the quality and characteristics of the CFG Assets; the source of funding for CFG s activities including development costs; development and drilling plans for those CFG Assets and the timing of results thereof; projections of commodity prices and costs; supply and demand for oil; potential reserves and future production with respect to the CFG Assets, business strategy and objectives; exploration and drilling plans; the costs associated with and the timing in relation to drilling wells; the costs of leases; capital expenditures; operating and other costs; the timing of implementing certain operating techniques; royalty rates and taxes; expectations regarding the ability to raise capital and continually add to reserves through acquisition and development; the sources of and the uses of cash generated from the business of CFG ; and the treatment under governmental regulatory regimes, including with its quasi-governmental partner, MOGE. Readers are cautioned such assumptions, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation of the information in this presentation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. 1

3 Reader Advisories CFG s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in or implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits CFG will derive there from. These statements involve substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond CFG s control, including: the impact of general economic conditions; industry conditions; changes in laws and regulations including the adoption of new environmental laws and regulations and changes in how they are interpreted and enforced; fluctuations in commodity prices and foreign exchange and interest rates; stock market volatility and market valuations; liabilities inherent in oil and natural gas operations; uncertainties associated with estimating oil and natural gas reserves; competition for, among other things, capital, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel; incorrect assessments of the value of acquisitions; changes in income tax laws or changes in tax laws and incentive programs relating to the oil and gas industry; geological, technical, drilling and processing problems and other difficulties in producing petroleum reserves; ability to secure drilling and service equipment; and obtaining required approvals of regulatory authorities. CFG s actual decisions, activities, results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, such forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurances can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur or, if any of them do, what benefits that CFG will derive from them. Readers should be cautioned that the foregoing list is not exhaustive of all possible risks and uncertainties. These risk factors should not be construed as exhaustive. Any financial outlook or future oriented financial information in this presentation, as defined by applicable securities legislation, has been approved by management of CFG. Such financial outlook or future oriented financial information is provided for the purpose of providing information about management's reasonable expectations as to the anticipated results of its proposed business activities. Management of CFG believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable but no assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements included herein should not be unduly relied upon. These statements speak as of the date hereof. Except as required by law, CFG undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. The information contained in this presentation does not purport to be all inclusive or to contain all information that prospective investors may require. Prospective investors are encouraged to conduct their own analysis and reviews of CFG and the information contained in this presentation. Information in relation to the previous experience of CFG s management is not indicative of the future performance characteristics of CFG. Without limitation, prospective investors should consider the advice of their financial, legal, accounting, tax and other advisors and such other factors they consider in investigating and analyzing CFG. 2

4 Highlights Canadian Foresight Group Pte. Ltd. ( CFG ) was established to pursue international E&P opportunities in SE Asia and successfully participated in Myanmar s inaugural offshore bidding round. CFG holds an 80% interest in Myanmar s offshore Block M-15 and is the Operator Myanmar s offshore oil sector is dominated by the Super-majors and Majors. Currently, CFG is the only pure Myanmar offshore investment opportunity available. CFG s directors and management team have extensive expertise in both onshore and offshore oil/gas exploration and development, particularly in Asia. Opportunity: Proposed US$30.0 million financing 3

5 Corporate Structure Canadian Foresight Group Pte. Ltd and its wholly owned subsidiary CFG Energy Pte. Ltd. are Singapore private incorporated companies. Shares issued and outstanding: 148,203,555. Capital raising: Planning to raise US$30 million by Q3/Q CANADIAN FORESIGHT GROUP PTE. LTD. 100% CFG ENERGY PTE. LTD. 100% CFG ENERGY PTE. LTD. (MYANMAR BRANCH) 4

6 Directors and Management Songning Shen Chairman & CEO - Mr. Shen is a Canadian Professional Geologist residing in Calgary. Mr. Shen holds an M.Sc. from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. Mr. Shen is recognized as being one of the discovers of China s biggest offshore oilfield, the SZ36-1 field. Mr. Shen was a Co-founder, Co-Chairman and Director of Sunshine Oilsands Ltd., a company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange, which under Mr. Shen s leadership grew to over 1.0 million acres of oilsands leases with a resource base of 4.2 billion barrels. Kevin Flaherty - Executive Director - Mr. Flaherty holds a MBA, Finance and resides in Vietnam, where he is a managing director of Energy & Natural Resource Investments at Saigon Asset Management. He co-founded two natural resources firms in Vietnam: Tiberon Minerals and Keeper Resources; both of which were subsequently acquired by Asian-based investment firms. Greg Turnbull - Director - Mr. Turnbull is a lawyer, currently a senior partner at the Calgary office of McCarthy Tétrault LLP. He currently serves as a director of a large number of publicly listed oil and gas E&P companies, including Crescent Point Energy Corp., Storm Exploration Inc., Heritage Oil Corporation, and Marquee Energy Ltd. Raymond Fong Director - Mr. Fong is a Canadian Professional Engineer. Mr. Fong was a director of China Coal Corporation from 2007 to He held previous directorships with Abenteuer Resources Ltd., Stealth Ventures Ltd., Zapata Capital Inc., director and president of Ultra Capital Inc. and a former director of United Rayore Gas Ltd. Mr. Fong is currently serving as a Director for Sunshine Oilsands Ltd. and Palinda International Group. Wei (David) Wu - Director - Mr. Wu has over 30 years of experience as owner and operator of businesses in China. He is a Director of West Pacific Petroleum and Yunnan Tianli Trading Ltd. He has also been a Manager of Husky Energy Challenge Holdings since September Currently, Mr. Wu serves as the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Caiterra International Energy Corporation. 5

7 Directors and Management Perla Woo - Vice President of Corporate Operations - Ms. Woo is Canadian Professional Engineer, with a degree in Engineering from the University of Calgary. She was a Co-Founder of Sunshine Oilsands Ltd., and was Senior Vice President until September Ms. Woo has over 20 years experience working in the oil and gas industry in Canada in the fields of reservoir engineering, exploitation, and pressure transient analysis. Shan Li - Vice President of Finance - Ms. Li has been the Investment Manager of the Strategic Investment Division of the Bank of China Investment Group since 2010 and previously served as the Vice-President of BOCI Asia Limited. She has been involved in numerous IPOs and major M&As transactions. Rebecca Li - Controller - Ms. Li has over 10 years of progressive accounting experience in diversified industries including oil and gas and utilities. She has full cycle experience in financial and management reporting, planning and business analysis. She has been working at senior level role since 2006 and recently as a controller for an oil and gas service company. Ms. Li received her MBA from the University of Calgary and is a Certified General Accountant. Ms. Li is currently serving on the board of one not-for-profit organization. Kyaw Moe - Myanmar Special Representative Mr. Kyaw Moe has 15 years of media and communication working experience in both the corporate and public sector. 6

8 Myanmar 2013 Offshore Bid Round Offshore Bid Round Results Blocks Selected Candidates Shallow Water Blocks A-4 Woodside & BG Group A-5 Chevron A-7 Woodside & BG Group M-4 Oil India & Mercator Petroleum & Oilmax Energy M-7 Fosun & Tap Oil M-8 Berlanga Holding M-15 CFG M-17 Reliance Industries M-18 Reliance Industries YEB Oil India & Mercator Petroleum & Oilmax Energy Deep Water Blocks AD-2 Woodside & BG Group AD-3 Ophir Energy AD-5 Woodside & BG Group AD-9 Shell AD-10 Statoil & ConocoPhillips AD-11 Shell MD-2 ENI MD-4 ENI MD-5 Shell YWB Total Bids Closed : November 2013 Results Announced: March 2014 CFG Contract Signed: March 2015 DOMINATED BY SUPER-MAJORS & MAJORS 7

9 Myanmar Offshore Block Map M-15 is located in proven oil & gas enriched zone 1) Most of the Myanmar offshore blocks are taken by the supermajors and majors. 2) M-15 is located in proven oil & gas enriched zone with multiple possible gas fields and prospects. Myanmar discovered offshore gas fields M-15 CFG Proven oil & gas enriched zone 8

10 PSC Signing Ceremony March 30,2015 CFG signed the Production Sharing Contract for Block M15 on March 30, Ceremony attended by 7 Government Ministers including the Minister of Energy, the Managing Director of MOGE, ambassadors, and over 70 government officials. Coverage on Myanmar TV and in Newspaper. Myanmar views the finalization of the offshore contracts to be a milestone in the country s development and have pledged full support to CFG and other operators to implement their exploration and development programs. The Production Sharing Contract (PSC) signing ceremony at Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar on March 30,

11 Strong Local Partner CFG s 10% local partner on Block M-15 is Century Bright Gold, a subsidiary of the KMA group, one of Myanmar s leading commercial firms. KMA Group is a diversified conglomerate controlling the KMA Hotel Group, CB Bank, CB Insurance, Golden Myanmar Airlines, etc. KMA Group has solid governmental relationships. Never appeared on the US or European Union Sanction List. KMA is carried for all exploration costs on Block M15 up to the Declaration of Commerciality. 10

12 Block M-15 - Oil and Gas Prospectivity MULTIPLE TARGETS Water depths on the block drop from 30 meters in the east to about 1600 meters in the west. Multiple play types are present across the block with multi-tcf prospects. Block MD5 -Shell Block M15 - CFG 11

13 The Kitchen: Large Volumes of Gas Have Been Generated on Block M15 Basin Modelling demonstrates that the rich Oligocene source rock kitchen on the western part of Block M-15 has generated BCF per square. kilometer, more than sufficient to source the multi-tcf traps on Block M-15. Deep water prospects directly overlie source kitchen areas, in shelf areas, migration pathways lead directly to prospect locations. Volume of Gas Generated per Square Kilometer showing Prospect Outlines 12

14 The Prospects: Numerous Multi-TCF Prospects on Block M-15 Prospect Number Prospect Name The Leads: Lead # Name and Description 2 Deepwater Turbidite lacks seismic control 3a P10 BCF P50 BCF P90 BCF 1 Deep Water Turbidite Basin Fan Oligocene Horst Block Miocene Sandstone Pinchout AVO supported Yetagun - Like Basement High Carbonate Buildup Oligocene Horst Block gravity defined, may be large in size 7 Potential Oligocene oil prone basins defined by satellite gravity 13

15 Prospect 1 Deep Water Turbidite Fan Complex Estimated P50 prospective resources likely significantly higher than the discovered deep water turbidite fan gas field Shwe/Shwe Phyu gas field Block MD5 -Shell Block M15 -CFG Turbidite Fan Complexes are the Play of the Decade and have spurred the participation of majors and super-majors in Myanmar Offshore. Multi-TCF fields are likely. Block M-15 Turbidite Fan Complexes extend onto the adjacent block held by Shell. Estimated P50 prospective resources is 10.1 TCF 2.5 times of Shwe/Shwe Phyu gas field. A B Water Depth: ~1700m Prospect Depth: ~3500m Estimated Porosity 26~30% A B 4 km line spacing Area 245 sq km 5KM 14

16 Prospect 1 Deep Water Turbidite Fan Complex Isopach of Fan Sequence (Meters) with seismic profile A A A A C B B C B B C C Shwe Turbidite Fan 15

17 Prospect 1 Deep Water Turbidite Fan Complex Isopach of Fan Sequence (Meters) with seismic profile A A A A C B B C B B C C Shwe Turbidite Fan 16

18 Prospect 1 Deep Water Turbidite Fan Complex Isopach of Fan Sequence (Meters) with seismic profile A A A A C B B C B B C C Shwe Turbidite Fan 17 8

19 Prospect 4 - Miocene Pinchout AVO supported AVO amplitudes showing interpreted gas-charged area with seismic profile A B Miocene sandstones are truncated adjacent to a large shelf-bounding fault. A prominent AVO (Amplitude vs Offset) anomaly suggests that the sandstone package is gas-charged. Estimated P50 gas resources of 3.4 TCF. Stacked sands may increase prospective resources significantly. A B 18

20 Prospect 6 - Carbonate Buildup Analogous to the biggest carbonate gas field in Myanmar Yadana Field West East Large carbonate buildup is analogous to the biggest carbonate gas field in Myanmar - Yadana field, with very similar geological settings and seismic features. Cross cutting channels are apparent, separating the downdip areas characterized by flat-zones from the updip portion tested by the well M15-B1. Very high porosity and permeability is expected with attendant high estimated P50 recoverable resources of 9.7 TCF. West East Yadana 10KM 19

21 Prospect 6 - Carbonate Buildup East to West Profile Flat Zone Inside use only 20

22 Prospect 6 - Carbonate Buildup South to North Profile Analogous to the biggest carbonate gas field in Myanmar Yadana Field Water depth: ~280m / Top carbonate depth: ~1080m / Estimated Porosity :25-30% North South Bright spots Seal: Mid-Miocene clay dominant shale Source: ample Oligocene source rock 10km Volcanic basement South North Inside use only 21

23 Yadana gas field Large carbonate buildup on Block M-15 is analogous to the biggest carbonate gas field in Myanmar - Yadana field in the same region, with very similar geological settings and seismic features. Water depth: 32-45M Top carbonate depth: ~1200M Recoverable reserves: ~6.5 TCF Porosity: 27-31% Permeability: ~ MD Bright spots Seal: Mid-Miocene Clay dominant shale Source: ample Oligocene source rock Volcanic basement 22

24 Block M-15 Operations Schedule Accelerated Work Schedule to Maximize Value Optional Optional Estimated Capital Expenditures $17.5 MM $25 MM $25 MM $25 MM $25 MM 23

25 Seismic Acquisition Acquisition costs are the lowest they have been in 25 years. Estimated cost for a 5000 sq km survey: $15 MM. First Mover advantage in approvals, costs, and partnerships. Recent development of Broadband acquisition technology has significantly improved gas play identification. Allow for the rapid testing of plays by the drill bit on M-15, first well Q Area of 3D Survey 5000 sq km 24

26 Block M15 Eastern Portion Evaluation The entire eastern portion of M-15 has sparse seismic coverage. Regional satellite gravity suggests that Oligocene basins are present similar to the oil-prone Tanintharyi Basin immediately north of Block M-15.. The area will be evaluated using air gravity, which can identify potential basins and prospective structures at low cost - $1.0 - $1.5 MM total estimated cost for the survey. Area of 3D Seismic Survey 5000 sq km Area of Air Gravity Survey 8000 sq km Area of 3D Seismic Survey 5000 sq km Area of Air Gravity Survey 8000 sq km 25

27 Economics Economic Scenarios Two economic models have been constructed to estimate the NPV and IRR of gas developments on Block M15. The Shelf Model assumes development of gas reserves in water depths of meters using a fixed platform solution. The shelf model is applicable to Prospects 3a, 4, 5 and 6. Resource sizes of 2, 5 and 10 TCF have been modelled. The Deepwater Model assumes gas reserves in water depths meters using a SPAR platform solution. The model is applicable to Prospects 1, 2 and 3. Resource sizes of 3, 6 and 10 TCF have been modelled. Water Depth and Type of Production Platform Modelled Shelf Model Deepwater Model 26

28 Economics before Capital Recovery Revenue Contractor Capital Recovery Contractor Netback Govt Profit Share Royalty Corporate Tax 27

29 Myanmar Fiscal Terms Summary Marginal government take of >70% Key Fiscal Terms Summary Illustrative Contractor Netback 12.5% royalty rate. ($12.5) 60% cost recovery threshold. Sliding scale state profit allocation of 55-80% in the deepwater and 60-90% on the shelf depending on daily production rate. ($48.1) 25% corporate tax (five year tax holiday from first production) levied on profit oil only $ % sales gas domestic market obligation sold at 90% of fair market value. ($9.8) 20% MOGE participation after commercial discovery (25% if reserves are >5 Tcf) MOGE fully carried before back-in, contractor repaid from state s allocation of cost gas. Revenue Royalty Govt Profit Share (55%) Corporate Tax $29.5 Contractor Netback (1) Calculated assuming maximum production rate in each tranche applicable 28

30 Indicative Field Characteristics Range of discovery sizes and locations modelled for shelf ( M water depth) and deepwater ( M water depths) Regional Overview Development Scenarios Range of scenarios considered around water depths, recoverable volumes and distance to tie-in. Illustrative field assumptions based on Yetagun field characteristics for the shelf prospects, and Shwe field characteristics for the deepwater. Shelf prospects lie in water depths of m, the reservoir depth from seafloor is 2,000 m and estimated resources are Tcf gas condensate. Cases modelled are 2, 5 and 10 TCF. Deepwater turbidite prospects lie in water depths around 1600m, reservoir depths from seafloor are m, and estimated resources are Tcf dry gas. 100 KMS Radii - Distance to Kanbauk Metering Station Gas Prospects Tie-in to Yetagun facilities is possible due to declining Yetagun production, current capacity is 1 BCF/D. Tie-in distances is about 110 kms. A dedicated pipeline to the Kanbauk metering station is required for larger outputs. Tie-in distance is about 280 kms. 29

31 Shelf Indicative Development Solution 1-3 WHP with a processing platform with gas piped to Yetagun (110 km) or alternately to Kanbauk (240 km) Assumed Development Details Indicative Development Schematic $145mm E&A costs: four well exploration and appraisal programme with semisubmersible rig assumed from 2016/2017. Multiple WHP development solution assumed. All in production well costs ~$25 mm per well including topsides drilling infrastructure costs. Peak well flow rate of ~45 mmcf/d based on available information on the Shwe Gas project. 20 Pipelines to Yetagun or alternately to Kanbauk, with an assumed maximum flow rate of 225 mmcf/d per pipeline. Pipeline costs to Yetagun account for ~30% of total development capital costs, and to Kanbauk up to 55% of total development capital costs. Does not consider any sharing of infrastructure or costs with other potential discoveries. Current modelling is based on single, standalone, discoveries. 100 km pipeline to Yetagun Or 300 km pipeline to Kanbauk Kanbauk Landfall Source: Genesis Engineering - Tho Chu Field Development FSU Source: IHS Que$tor 30

32 Deepwater Indicative Development Solution Caisson spar buoy indicative development solution with gas piped to Yetagun (150 km) or to Kanbauk (280 km) Indicative Development Details Indicative Development Schematic $300mm E&A costs: three well exploration and appraisal programme with drill-ship assumed from 2017/2018. Caisson spar buoy development solution assumed for both the deepwater and shelf with water depths of >1,500m. Subsea development challenged given high number of wells. Current maximum for Tension Leg Platform development ~1,600m. Analogue spar development on Shell s GoM Perdido development (~2,500-2,900m) Production wells drilled from Tender Support Vessel ( TSV ). All in well costs ~$50mm per well including topsides drilling infrastructure costs. Peak well flow rate of ~45 mmcf/d and recovery of 333 Bcf based on available information on the Shwe Gas project. Pipelines assume a maximum flow rate of 225 mmcf/d per pipeline and nominal diameter of 20 inches. Pipeline costs to Yetagun (150 kms) for a development in deepwater account for approximately 30% of total capital costs while costs to the Kanbauk landfall (320 kms) account for 55% of total capital costs. Does not consider any sharing of infrastructure or costs with other potential discoveries. Current modelling is based on single, standalone, discoveries. Caisson spar buoy development with drilling facilities Development wells drilled with TSV Landfall 150 km (Or 280km pipeline) Source: IHS Que$tor Source: IHS Que$tor 31

33 NPV10 (US$bn) IRR (%) Prospect NPV10 / IRR Analysis Contractor Full Life-Cycle NPV10 at Various Prices and Reserve Sizes Contractor IRR at Various Prices and Reserve Sizes Shelf - 2 Tcf / 110km Pipeline to Yetagun Shelf - 5 Tcf / 110km Pipeline to Yetagun Shelf - 10 Tcf / 110km Pipeline to Yetagun Deepwater 3 Tcf / 150km Pipeline Deepwater 6 Tcf / 150km Pipeline Deepwater 10 Tcf / 150km Pipeline 10 TCF Shelf $4.25 BBN 10 TCF Deepwater $1.4 BBN 26% 23% 20% 17% 14% % -- 8% Wellhead Export $6.5 $7.0 $8.0 $9.0 $10.0 $11.0 $12.0 Wellhead Export $6.5 $7.0 $8.0 $9.0 $10.0 $11.0 $12.0 Domestic Price $5.8 $6.3 $7.2 $8.1 $9 $9.9 $10.8 Domestic Price $5.8 $6.3 $7.2 $8.1 $9.0 $9.9 $

34 Economic Summary Shelf Gas developments of 10 TCF yield NPV10 of $4.25 BBN assuming the most likely $8 /MCF gas price. Rates of return are heavily dependent upon discount rate and gas price, however they are relatively insensitive to partner carry and capex. 33

35 Summary Multi-TCF prospects on Block M-15 have strongly positive economic valuations. Exploration and investment by the Super Majors and Majors in the Myanmar offshore oil and gas sector increases the value proposition for CFG. With most of the Myanmar offshore acreage taken up by the Super-majors and Majors, CFG is a unique opportunity for investors to participate in Myanmar s offshore oil & gas sector. 34

36 Contact Information SONGNING SHEN Chairman of the Board and Managing Director Canadian Foresight Group Pte. Ltd. Mobile: Office: ext PERLA WOO Vice President Canadian Foresight Group Pte. Ltd. Mobile: Office: ext KEVIN FLAHERTY Executive Director Canadian Foresight Group Pte. Ltd. Mobile: CANADIAN FORESIGHT GROUP PTE. LTD. Calgary Office: Suite 800, 717 7th Avenue SW, Calgary, AB T2P 0Z3, Canada Office: Fax: Yangon Office: Rm. No.16, 3rd Fl., Build. No.C2, Shwe Hin Thar Condo, Corner of Pyay Road & Shwe Hin Thar Street, Hlaing Tsp., Yangon, Myanmar Office: Fax: