Upstream at a Turning Point? Oil & Gas Summit 2014
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1 Presentation Upstream at a Turning Point? Oil & Gas Summit th October 2014 ihs.com Simon Wardell, Director, Upstream Research and Consulting , simon.wardell@ihs.com
2 Conventional oil and gas volumes discovered have been in decline for the last few years Billion boe Conventional Oil and Gas Volumes Discovered 120 Iran Oil & Condensate Gas Turkmenistan Mozambique 60 Brazil Source: IHS EDIN Includes all discoveries regardless of commerciality Does not include Canada onshore or US lower 48 onshore or US shallow water 2
3 Gas + liquids recoverable (MMboe) Oil + associated gas recoverable (MMboe) Mean discovered oil field size shows a very shallow declining trend Average size of global conventional oil discoveries Average field size Linear fitted trend Note: Data exclude Canada onshore and US lower-48 onshore and shallow water. Discoveries are technical discoveries and do not consider commerciality. Source: IHS EDIN Average size of global conventional gas discoveries Average field size Note: Data exclude Canada onshore and US lower-48 onshore and shallow water. Discoveries are technical discoveries and do not consider commerciality. Source: IHS EDIN Linear fitted trend 3
4 Deep and Ultra-Deepwater account for an increasing share of conventional oil and gas discovered 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% % Oil Volumes Found by Play Type Ultra-deep Water (>5000 ft) Deep Water ( ft) Shallow Water (<1000 ft) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% % Gas Volumes Found by Play Type Ultradeep Water (>5000 ft) Deep Water ( ft) Shallow Water (<1000 ft) 20% Onshore 20% Onshore 10% 10% 0% % Source: IHS Energy Source: IHS Energy 4
5 Majority of producing fields are mature North Sea fields caught between depleted and previously uneconomic Maturity of remaining reserves for oil and gas fields in production Venezuela Kuwait Divided Zone UAE Argentina Saudi Arabia Libya Iran Indonesia Algeria India Mexico Nigeria Russia Qatar Syria Norway Oman Malaysia United Kingdom China Iraq Kazakhstan Brazil 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Depleted >50% % Remaining Reserves Depleted <50% but > 25 Yrs Old Non Mature Global remaining reserves for fields in production by maturity (MMboe) 1,500,000 1,000, , ,432,500 33% 67% Oil Not Mature Mature 766,000 Mature Fields: Defined as those which have produced > 50% of reserves OR which are >25yrs old. Unconventional resources excluded. Source: IHS EDIN 77% 23% Gas 5
6 Increasingly Difficult Rocks Plenty of scope for technological advances to unlock more resources remains Source: IHS CERA. Shale & Chalk Tightly Cemented Sandstone Low-Permeability Carbonates Mixed Sandstone & Fine-Grained Material Porous/ Permeable Sandstone and Carbonate Long-reach horizontals and multistage fracture completions Fracture completions in vertical wells Drill & complete CO 2 EOR Light Crude Medium Crude Heavy, Viscous Crude Steamflooding Extra-heavy Crude & Tar Sands Increasingly Difficult Oils Mining & SAGD Bitumen & Kerogen 6
7 Global breakeven cost stack The range of full cycle break even prices is very wide for US tight oil and deep water projects, although some projects costs are highly skewed 7
8 Unconventional developments are driving the surge in US crude production Shale oil raises US crude production and quality mix Million barrels/day Total US Crude Production Outlook by Quality Light Medium Heavy Source: IHS 8
9 Majors returns in unconventionals have been low Majors balance portfolios to get materiality and returns $ NPV 10/boe $40 $35 New Production Growth to 2020 vs Returns of Different Play Types $30 $25 $20 Deepwater Areas Conventional Onshore & Shallow Water $15 $10 LNG $5 $0 Unconventionals 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: IHS Energy % Contribution to New Source Growth to
10 High Crude Prices, but Low Upstream Returns? Oil company returns have been declining in a high price environment Upstream ROCE 30% 25% 20% Production-Weighted Average Upstream ROCE 15%-20% Returns 20%-25% Returns Brent $/barrel $120 $100 $80 15% $60 10% 5%-15% Returns 10-15% Returns $40 5% $20 0% $0 Source: IHS Upstream Competition Service Upstream Returns Brent Price ROCE data include Anadarko, Apache, BG Group, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, ExxonMobil, Hess, Marathon Oil, Occidental, Repsol, Shell, Statoil, and TOTAL. Upstream ROCE defined as [Upstream Net Income / Upstream Year-End Net Capitalized Costs]. 10
11 The Majors Struggle to Maintain Production Majors are hard pressed to consistently grow or maintain - production mboe/d Majors Worldwide Oil and Gas Production ExxonMobil BP Shell Chevron Total Statoil Eni Source: IHS Upstream Competition Service 11
12 Cost Increases Moderated, but Still Rising Rising capital costs will continue to challenge the industry 12
13 Corporate and asset transactions fell sharply in 2013 Upstream deal flow and transactions value dropped by 45% in 2013 Total Upstream Transactions Value and Deal Count Upstream Transactions $ billions $300 $250 Deal count Deal Count 450 $200 $150 Deal Values 300 $ $50 $ Asset deal value Corporate deal value Total deal count 0 Source: IHS 13
14 Shell Total Chevron XOM Petrobras BP CP Statoil Continued uncertainty and increasing costs, forces operators to plan for lower capex in 2014 Increasing cost and lower oil price expectation drive spending reductions Estimated Capex spend 2014 vs 2013 actual Selected operators - Estimated capex spending 2014 (Change from 2013) 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Shell Total Chevron Exxon Mobil Petrobras BP Conoco Phillips Statoil Source: IHS Herold Source: Company information, IHS Herold 14
15 North Sea in transition: Mature and difficult, smaller resource base lends itself to more focussed players 15
16 North Sea: Mature and/or difficult resource base driving new players and business models Large discoveries increasingly rare (Barents Sea excepted) Existing resource base has seen large, easy finds reaching maturity/depletion while smaller, difficult fields passed over Changing external environment opening up new opportunities Tight oil techniques have applications in conventional fields Move form capital-intensive infrastructure and large scale development to niche projects Cost control, focus, technological innovation much more important in economically marginal basins 16
17 Big Challenges for Upstream Managing costs, performance and driving returns Managing and responding to diminishing prospectivity and success Finding the next material/economic play(s) Developing fit for purpose business models Sustainability of the tight oil boom US versus global Managing increasingly complex risks and projects delivering on time and on budget 17
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