FINANCIAL OVERVIEW OF OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

Transcription

1 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW OF OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY Andy Waite Co-President, SCF Partners 38 th Annual Marine/Offshore Industry Outlook Conference March 26, 2015

2 Presentation Overview Macro Trends Impacting Oil & Gas Industry Implications For Offshore Sector Impact On Energy Financial Markets 2

3 Macro Trends Impacting Oil & Gas Industry 3

4 How Significant Is The Oil Imbalance Today? Demand Supply MMBOE/D North America South America FSU & Europe Asia ME & Africa Total Non Opec OPEC Crude & NGL Processing & Biofuels Total Net To Storage Net To Storage in 2014 & 2015 in MMBOE 563 Source: IEA Note: OPEC Demand is included in Non Opec Demand Table 4

5 How Did It Happen? Demand Factors Supply Factors Financial Factors Slowdown in Chinese Demand Growth Slowdown in Other Emerging Economies Fuel Efficiency / Fuel Switching US Shale Production Growth/ Efficiency Gains Growth From Canada, Brazil, GOM Decreased Disruption in Libya (Fall 2014) Dramatic Reduction In Financial Institutions Involvement In Futures Market OPEC Inaction 5

6 Global Demand Highly Dependent on Non-OECD MMBbls/D Demand 6 China Non OECD Excl China OECD

7 US Production Growth The Primary Supply Culprit OPEC Outages Masked US Production Growth US Crude Production Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 MMBbls/D 1.0 Total OPEC Outages US Crude Growth 0.0 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 MMBbls/D Source: EIA 7

8 Shale Efficiency Is Likely To Continue Increasing Eagle Ford Efficiency Gains Eagle Ford Decline Curves % (10.0%) (20.0%) (30.0%) (40.0%) (50.0%) (60.0%) (70.0%) Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Oil 30 Day Avg IP Per Rig (Bbls/D) Annual Field Decline Rate Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Eagle Ford Production Resultant Economics Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Oil Production (MMBBL/D) Source: EIA and EOG ATROR EOG s EF Well is Higher Rate of Return at $65 Oil today than $95 Oil in % 75% 50% 25% 0% 2015 $45 $55 $65 $75 $85 $95 Oil Price Note: ATROR=After Tax Rate of Return 2012

9 Financial Players Began To Short Crude In Mid-2014 Brent $/Bbl (Yellow) Source: IEA 9 $120 $100 $80 $60 ICE Brent vs Money Managers Long/Short Ratio $40 Oct 11 Jul 12 Apr 13 Jan 14 Oct Long/Short Ratio (Blue)

10 Risk Of Another Near Term Leg Down As Storage Fills US Crude Storage (MMBbls) MMBls Jan Feb 82% PADD 1 Mar 75% PADD 2 Apr 60% PADD 3 May 58% PADD 4 Jun 63% PADD 5 65% US Total 92% 83% Europe Japan 85% 81% South Korea South Africa Source: EIA, Citigroup Note: bottom chart stocks excludes 120MMBbls of oil held in pipelines, lease stocks & tank bottoms Jul Aug Sep 5 Yr Range Oct Nov Dec Highly utilized storage in US & OECD Cushing Oklahoma has 14MMBbls of excess capacity today with forecasted build of 3 3.5MMBbls per week USGC oil storage is much larger, but requires a steeper contango forward curve to incentivize traders to store oil there

11 Oil Company Reaction Has Been Rapid and Significant Source: Simmons Research U.S. Capex Slashed CapEx Y/Y % Sector Q4'14 Run Rate 15/'14 15/4Q'14 Run Rate Independent E&P 47,140 75,644 81,249 (37.7%) (42.0%) IOC US Upstream 29,625 36,428 40,834 (18.7%) (27.5%) Total 76, , ,083 (31.5%) (37.1%) High Profile Global Project Deferrals and Cancellations Oil Production Project (kbd) Country Status Tengiz FGP 275 Kazakhstan FID Delayed Bonga SW 225 Nigeria FID Delayed Kaombo Block Angola Delayed Pierre River Phase Canada Cancelled Chssonga 150 Angola Delayed Johan Castberg 150 Norway Delayed Mad Dog Phase US GoM Delayed Joslyn North Mine 100 Canada Cancelled Ayatsil Tekel 100 Mexico Deferred Fram 75 Norway Cancelled Rosebank 64 UK Delayed Block 18 West (PCC) 60 Angola Delayed Sea Lion Phase 1 55 Falkland Island Tempa Rossa 55 Italy Delayed Bressay 52 Norway Delayed Gendalo Gehem 47 Indonesia Delayed Leismer Expansion 44 Canada Delayed Corner 40 Canada Delayed YME 35 Norway Cancelled Bream 35 Norway Delayed Germain Phase 2 30 Canada Delayed West Seahorse 20 Australia Delayed Blackrod Phase 1 20 Canada Delayed MacKay River 2 20 Canada Delayed Saleski Phase 1 JV 12 Canada Delayed Total 2,194

12 Expectations For Long Term Oil Price Lowered Year Forward Strip Price Dec 2011 $90.17/Bbl Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Jan 13 May 13 Sep 13 Jan 14 May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 $/Bbl Feb 2014 $70.04/Bbl Source: CapIQ 12

13 Which Oil Supply Becomes Marginal Production 13 * Estimated are based on the 30 largest projects within each group expected to start up in the period IRR and payback analysis assumes $90/bbl oil price. Source: Rystad Energy

14 Implications For Offshore Sector 14

15 Headwinds For Offshore Sector Overall Commodity Price and Operator Capex Reduction Disappointing recent exploration success in Deepwater Specific issues relating to: Brazil Mexico Nigeria Overarching need to reduce project complexity, reduce costs, manage risks (post-macondo world) Excess capacity in service and equipment sector Offshore rigs Subsea tree manufacturing 15

16 GOM Additional Factors Perceived Risk / BSEE Regulatory Impact Driving Operators Out BSEE # Of # Operators of Operators In GOM in Gulf of Mexico Even Larger Players Shifting Focus Onshore Operator Year Full Exit Purchaser Value Newfield 2012 Yes W&T Offshore $228MM Apache 2013 No Fleetwood $3,750MM Apache 2014 Yes McMoRan $1,400MM SandRidge 2014 Yes Fleetwood $750MM Stone Energy 2014 No Talos $200MM Source: BSEE and Company Announcements 16

17 More Expensive / Less Successful Exploration Millions boe Discovered,,,,,,,, Source: Rystad Energy 17

18 Dayrates Have Softened Ultra Deepwater Dayrates Midwater Rig Dayrates Deepwater Rig Dayrates WW Jack up Dayrates Source: Wells Fargo Research Most Recent Fixtures 18

19 Rig Backlog Is Declining Avg. Backlog per Marketed Ultra Deepwater Rig Avg. Backlog per Marketed Midwater Rig Avg. Backlog per Marketed Deepwater Rig Avg. Backlog per Marketed Jack up Source: Clarksons Research 19

20 Significant Population of 30+ Year Old Rig Assets Floaters Jackups Source: Clarksons Research 20

21 Similar Story In Supply Vessels Worldwide Large PSV (> 3,000 dwt) Worldwide Large AHTS (> 10,000 BHP) Worldwide Small PSV (< 3,000 dwt) Worldwide Small AHTS (< 10,000 BHP) Source: Clarksons Research 21

22 Subsea Tree Awards Disappoint But Potential To Return 700 Tree Awards E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Source: Quest Offshore Resources, February

23 Installed Base Of Subsea Completions - Opportunity For Intervention Activity 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e Cumulative # of Subsea Trees Since e fsw fsw fsw Source: Quest Offshore Resources, February

24 Case For Deepwater Resilience Deepwater will be needed to meet future global demand Big fields with high volume / high rate wells Organizational capability built already within IOCs / NOCs Project re-engineering efforts should yield lower cost for development Tie-back opportunities should have favorable economics (even at current commodity prices) Upside in potential recovery from subsea wells (vs platform) should lead to increased intervention activity 24

25 Impact On Energy Finance Markets 25

26 Offshore Stocks Have Underperformed 1.4x 1.2x 1.0x 0.8x 0.6x 0.4x Jun 13 Aug 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 Feb 14 Apr 14 Jun 14 Aug 14 Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 OSX Index Offshore Drillers Supply Boats Note: Dividend Adj Performance except crude and OSX, Source: CapIQ Offshore Drillers include DO, ESV, HERO, NE, RDC, RIG, SDRL, VTG, GLF, HOS and TDW Supply Boats include GLF, HOS, and TDW 26

27 Equity Market Difficult For Service Stocks $3.0 North American Service IPO & Follow on Issuance 18 Value ($Bln) (Yellow = IPO, Blue = Follow On) $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $ Count (White) $.0 0 Mar 05 Sep 05 Mar 06 Sep 06 Mar 07 Sep 07 Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09 Sep 09 Mar 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Source: CapIQ, Note: Fairmount Santrol IPO in 4Q14 was on Oct 2,2014 at 71% of midpoint original filing price & 56% of the original offering size; Follow on offerings were related to crude oil terminalling & field mgt. in Argentina 27

28 E&P s Have Had Record Issuance This Quarter $12.0 North American E&P IPO & Follow on Issuance 70 $10.0 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $ $.0 0 Mar 05 Sep 05 Mar 06 Sep 06 Mar 07 Sep 07 Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09 Sep 09 Mar 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Count (White) Value ($Bln) (Yellow = IPO, Blue = Follow On) Source: CapIQ 28

29 Debt Markets Energy High Yield Issuance Trends Energy High Yield Rates Have Soared Upstream BB Index Upstream B Index Midstream Index Services Index BB Index B Index Source: Barclays & Wells Fargo 29

30 Capital Constraints Dividend Reduction / Elimination for some offshore service players Lack of access to public equity markets for service sector and public debt remains difficult E&P sector has had record access to public equity in Q to shore up balance sheets Without Access To Capital - companies forced to live within cash flows 30

31 This May Not Be Helpful For A Quick Recovery $14B of Energy Focused Private Equity raised since December

32 Appendix: Brief Overview of SCF Partners 32

33 Overview of SCF Partners Private equity firm, founded by L.E. Simmons, focused solely on building leading energy service and equipment companies Eight funds raised over 25 years (with two thirds of capital gains benefiting nonprofit institutions) ~$2.5 billion in total ~$360 million available to invest today Over 3.8X return on capital from realized investments 4.9X return on investments for the last 10 years ~300 total investments (platforms & add-ons) Fifteen executives throughout Houston, Calgary and Aberdeen Provide equity capital and strategic growth assistance Capital for growth and partial shareholder liquidity Pursue partnerships with talented management teams to foster growth Build private companies into leading public companies with our strategic partners 33

34 SCF Builds Market Leaders GRNT TBI VRC CPX HOSS CFK HOS FET WTXT DRLX BOU 25 Year History FES OIS 34

35 Current Portfolio Companies Company Revenues ($MM) Geographic Focus/HQ Date Invested Company Profile $1,740 Global 2005; (Houston) 2010 Global provider of manufactured technologies and applied products to the energy industry, serving the drilling, completion, production, flow control and subsea segments 909 Global 2005; (Houston) 2011 Provides comprehensive fluids management services including water transfer by pipe and truck, stimulation & production chemicals, and logistics and transportation of fluids and proppants 527 US (Houston) 2011 Provider of downhole completions solutions with a significant focus on multi stage completions in horizontal laterals Canada 391 (Edmonton) 2010 Provider of access, infrastructure and environmental services in the Oil Sands, Canadian Bakken and U.S. Bakken 294 U.S. (Kalkaska) 2012 Comprehensive well services, including coil tubing units, workover rigs, swabbing units, hot oilers, high pressure pump trucks and vacuum trucks Centurion Group U.S. (Houston) Global (Aberdeen) Australia and New Zealand Canada (Calgary) Leading provider of accommodation, downhole and surface rental solutions to Producers in every major shale basin of the United States Specialist equipment rental and solutions to the onshore and offshore energy industry Diversified energy and minerals services provider throughout Australia and New Zealand serving the wireline and logging, well testing and production services segments Variperm is a leading provider of downhole sand control products and services to the Canadian energy industry Global (Aberdeen) Canada (Nanton) 2014 International provider of advanced subsea acoustic positioning systems, diver communication systems, and acoustic subsea controls Leading provider of rental utility solutions for remote work sites in Western Canada