What are roadmaps? Perspectives to the development of roadmapping Lecture 1

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1 What are roadmaps? Perspectives to the development of roadmapping Lecture 1 Toni Ahlqvist PhD, Senior Research Scientist, Team Leader Technology Foresight and Technology Assessment VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Victoria Technology Roadmap Roadmap Training Day

2 Schedule of the training Getting started: introduction of the participants and trainers All Presentation of the Victoria Technology Roadmap project Roos (ICS) Module 1: Theory - What are roadmaps? Ahlqvist (VTT) Module 2: Practice - How to construct roadmaps? Ahlqvist (VTT) Module 2: Background presentation for the group work Valovirta (VTT) Module 3: Tasks for the group work Ahlqvist (VTT) Coffee break Module 3: Evaluation of drivers and bottlenecks (Step 1) Participants Module 3: Markets and actors (Step 1) Participants Module 3: Constructing vision statements (Step 2) Participants Lunch break Module 2: Practice - How roadmaps support strategic planning? Loikkanen (VTT) Module 3: Solutions and services (Step 3) Participants Coffee break Module 3: Enabling technologies and iteration (Step 3) Participants Wrap up - Discussing the results of the working groups All 2

3 Structure of the lecture 1 What are roadmaps? Roadmapping: emergence and definitions Roadmaps as visual strategies Different types of roadmaps Roadmap hierarchies VTT s approach to roadmapping 3

4 Strategic positions towards a future 1. Shape the future - High risk, high reward 2. Adapt to the future - Early adapters 3. Reserve the right to play - To be aware Courtney et al (HBR, 1997) 4

5 Emergence of roadmapping Roadmapping is an approach to align service, solution and technology development with market developments and wider societal drivers Roadmapping is thus an approach for aligning technology and commercial perspectives, balancing market pull and technology push Roadmapping has its root in engineering sciences Its initial development is usually attributed to Motorola more than 25 years ago Since then roadmapping has been adopted and adapted by many organizations The most important first movers have been Technology-intensive firms in the consumer electronics Aerospace Defence sectors Roadmapping has since become quite widely utilized method in strategy formation, proactive planning and futures studies 5

6 Definitions of roadmaps Former Motorola executive and expert of science and technology roadmaps Robert Galvin defined "roadmap" in Science magazine as follows: A roadmap is an extended look at the future of a chosen field of inquiry composed from the collective knowledge and imagination of the brightest drivers of change in that field. Roadmaps communicate visions, attract resources from business and government, stimulate investigations, and monitor progress. They become the inventory of possibilities for a particular field. (Galvin 1998 cit. Kostoff & Schaller 2001: 132) Roadmaps are an extended looks at the future of a chosen field(s) of inquiry are composed of the collective knowledge and imagination of the drivers of change in a particular field communicate visions stimulate investigations monitor progress are the inventory of possibilities of a particular field 6

7 Further definitions Roadmapping is a structured process for documenting the anticipated evolution of a company s markets and the product and technology development plans to address those future markets. It provides a mechanism to capitalize on the scale of operations by documenting key business goals and R&D projects, thus enabling synergies to be identified. (Cosner et al. 2007: 31) 7

8 Example of a Motorola roadmap Willyard & McClees 1987, Research Management 8

9 Some dimensions of roadmapping Roadmap is a visualization of strategic aims of the organization/group of experts Explication of vision Explication of possible development paths Identification of potentials Roadmaps can be utilized in many ways to structure the research, development and strategic activities of an organization or a firm VTT s public roadmaps focus sociotechnical changes Roadmaps can be applied In definition and embedding of R&D targets In characterization of development and competence needs As a strategic tool to combine different temporal perspectives and aims of a firm As a tool to map the changes in the markets As a tool plan business activities and networks In the anticipation of the long-term changes in the environment As a tool raise awareness of technological and environmental changes, especially in combination with scenarios 9

10 Some dimensions of roadmapping Roadmaps can include descriptions of changing technology and market landscapes, but they should not be just inventories of these landscapes Roadmaps can include action targets for different actors in the process, but they should not be limited just to action planning Therefore, it is important to make a following categorical distinction: Roadmaps are focused visual strategies structured in temporal levels Descriptions of future development targets in certain societal and business context Action plans are specific descriptions of actions that should be made according to the roadmap Action plans can also take the format of a simple roadmaps 10

11 Roadmaps as strategic lenses Phaal & Muller 2009, TF&SC 11

12 Different roadmap types Strategic roadmap presents the long-range objectives of senior management Market roadmaps combine e.g. known and foreseen customer needs, competitive strategies, regulatory environment, complementary products, substitute products and product innovations. Product roadmaps describe the performance and feature development of the products. Technology roadmaps describe the expected R&D activities, including dates and R&D related information. Enterprise roadmap integrates all the elements of previous roadmaps into enterprise level roadmap. Cosner et al. (2007: 33) 12

13 Roadmap concepts at Motorola Petrick & Echols

14 Example: Roadmap structure applied by Nokia Source: Mika Naumanen 14

15 Roadmap categories Roadmap Emphases Trends / trajectories Science/Technology roadmaps set industry targets Product-Technology roadmaps align decisions with trends Positioning Industry roadmaps set industry expectations Product roadmaps schedule product introductions Industry understanding Local coordination Roadmapping Purposes Source: Mika Naumanen 15

16 Categorization of roadmaps I Lee & Park (2005). Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005)

17 Categorization of roadmaps II Lee & Park (2005). Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005)

18 Generic VTT roadmap structure Drivers WHY? Markets VISION Products, solutions WHAT? Technologies HOW? Present Medium term Long term Where are we now? How can we get there? Where do we want to go? 18

19 Examples of recent VTT Roadmaps: Completed: Man-machine interfaces in vehicles. TT, Tekes & VTT, Material technology roadmap. TT, Tekes & VTT Security Roadmap. VTT Water technology roadmap. VTT 2006 (unpublished) Transport System Technology Services. VTT Roadmap of Building Services. VTT Roadmap of Digital Built Environment. VTT Social Media Roadmap. VTT Under construction: Service Science Roadmap. VTT Nutritech Roadmap on Intelligent Nutrition. VTT Green ICT Roadmap. VTT Roadmap of Ecomaterials. VTT Roadmap of Packaging. VTT Victoria Technology Roadmap. VTT & ICS

20 Conclusions What to remember Roadmaps are focused visualizations of strategic development paths for region, organization, technology, service or separate products Roadmaps align organization s future strategy in the tension of technology push and market pull Roadmaps are tools to direct future towards a certain goals Vision (where to go), present (where we are), path between present and a vision (how to get there) What (drivers), what (solutions), how (enablers) Roadmaps as visual strategies in certain context Action plans as specific descriptions of actions that should be made according to the roadmap 20

21 VTT creates business from technology 21

22 How to construct roadmaps? Roadmapping methods, types and processes Lecture 2 Toni Ahlqvist PhD, Senior Research Scientist, Team Leader Technology Foresight and Technology Assessment VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Victoria Technology Roadmap Roadmap Training Day

23 Structure of the lecture 2 How to construct roadmaps? Ways to construct roadmaps Different types of roadmaps Views to process of roadmapping Examples of roadmapping processes 23

24 Different ways to construct roadmaps Desktop study Expert review of existing roadmaps Synthesis: where does our organizations stand? Expert process Workshops Interviews Questionnaires, Delphi Integrated company process Databases Visual construction automatized Inputs from different strategic units Crystallized into roadmaps 24

25 Evolution of roadmapping at Motorola Richey & Grinnell

26 ICT-based roadmapping Examples of programs that can be utilized Sopheon Vision Strategist, Banxia Software, Planisware Project Management Tools, mind mapping tools (e.g. Mind Manager), different project management tools etc. Pros Cons Systematic Rigid process Large amount of data Blocks creativity Large amount of data producers New ideas get lost in structure Hierarchical roadmap structures Locked in, non-iterative strategic perspective Updateable living document 26

27 Roadmaps take many forms I At its best, roadmapping is a collaborative learning process visual forms of roadmaps are varied 27

28 Roadmaps take many forms II 28

29 Roadmaps take many forms III Blackwell et al

30 Design pitfalls Too much information Overloaded Cluttered No clear message No vision Inconsistent Lack of organizing logic Blackwell et al

31 Roadmapping process 31

32 Technology roadmapping generic process PLANNING Workshop 1 Market Objectives Scope People Schedule Workshop 2 Product Performance dimensions Market / business drivers Grouping Prioritisation SWOT Gaps Workshop 3 Technology Technology solutions Grouping Impact ranking Gaps Workshop 4 Charting Milestones Product charting Technology charting Resources Gaps Way forward IMPLEMENTATION Implementation plan Tasks (gaps) Integration Adapted from Phaal et al

33 Case example: Tailored technology foresight process for a multinational corporate client Collection Collection of of background background material material reports, studies, reports, studies, articles articles First First workshop workshop Evaluation of tech X Evaluation of tech X targets targets Evaluation of tech X Evaluation of tech X types types Back-office Back-office iteration iteration Expert Expert questionnaire questionnaire Evaluation of tech X Evaluation of tech X targets targets Evaluation of tech X Evaluation of tech X types types Tech Tech X X landscape landscape Back-office Back-office iteration iteration Tech X Tech X mindmaps mindmaps Second workshop Second workshop Iteration of tech X Iteration of tech X targets targets Evaluation of key tech Evaluation of key tech X concepts and tech X X concepts and tech X types types Synthesis Synthesis Back-office Back-office iteration iteration Key Key tech tech X X types types and concepts and concepts FINAL FINAL REPORT REPORT = active working phase = process output 33

34 Example of roadmapping process I VTT Roadmap for ICT based Opportunities in the Development of the Built Environment 34

35 Roadmapping process 35

36 Example of roadmapping process II VTT Building Services Roadmap 36

37 Building services roadmap Meta-roadmap Thematic roadmap 1: Building services systems and equipment Thematic roadmap 2: ICT and software Thematic roadmap 3: Interfaces from building services to buildings and their infrastructure Thematic roadmap 4: Business models and service concepts Networked building services Building services life-cycle design process 37

38 Networked building services Need to collect real-time data from buildings and products Drivers Need for inter-equipment communication Demand for quality indoor conditions Emphasizing of individual requirements Markets Products and solutions Technologies Several automation system deliveries and automation bus standards Fragmented markets; not advanced business models Building services solutions for different bus standards Utilisation of self-made "de facto"- standard solutions Tailored single ICT-solutions Sensors e.g. for measuring temperature and humidity Motion detectors Built-in sensors in structures RFID Markets for "insecurity" Building operating system Model-based life-cycle desing and visualization Remote reading and monitoring, two-way communication Plug-and-playequipment Collecting room information Repairs: technical solutions for nondisruptive installation Sensor solutions: e.g. RFID, pressure detector Getting the correct data RFID, sensors, event logs Sensor networks Standardization of ICT Integrated systems Location services Sensor networks, power-supply-free Interactive user interface User-specific personification Sensors connecting building functions Smart home / building machine Customizated / multi-sensory user interfaces Self-controlling systems Adapting building system (controlled by usage) THEMATIC VISION: METAROADMAPIN NETWORKED VISIO BUILDING SERVICES State-of-the-art Short-term (1 5 years) Long-term (5 15 years) 38

39 Business models and service concepts VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND New possibilities of ICT Drivers Increasing demand of indoor condition management and reliability Individual, solvent and demanding customer. Purchase services Markets Products and solutions Different doers Price competition Increased interest for education Energy monitoring services Safety services Labour shortage Management of product interfaces Connecting building services and health Renovation and maintenance services. New tailored service concepts Small-scale moderate-priced expert services Networking, partnerships Open source -model Sales support systems (visualization, after sales etc.) Services for occupants (flexible renovation services etc.) Product model based operation and maintenance Customer-oriented condition services (selling of "indoor air" etc.) ICT: development of user interfaces Comfirmation of compatibility (construction + building services) Service markets increase in East Europe and in Asia - networking need New doer: "service and desing integrator" connecting a customer and a supplier "Virtual companies" owned by suppliers Integrated services Global markets for niche systems and services Services for recreational dwelling Building life-cycle services THEMATIC VISION: BUSINESS MODELS AND SERVICE CONCEPTS Collecting history data of buildings State-of-the-art Short-term (1 5 years) Long-term (5 15 years) 39

40 Example III Nordic ICT Foresight 40

41 Partners in the project Denmark Confederation of Danish Industries The Danish Society of Engineers (IDA) Cooperation partners Core partners DTI Danish Technological Institute (Denmark) FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency (Sweden) Sweden Ericsson Microwave Systems Vinnova (Swedish Innovation System Agency) Göteborg Pediatric Growth Research Center at Göteborg University Norway Abelia LO (Landsorganisasjonen) The Research Council of Norway SIVA - The Industrial Development Corporation of Norway Oslo Innovation Center SINTEF Foundation for Scientific and Industrial Research at the Norwegian Institute of Technology (Norway) VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland) Finland Nokia Corporation Sitra Stakes TEK, Finnish Association of Graduate Engineers Technology Industries of Finland TEKES - Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation Workplace development programme, Ministry of Labour 41

42 WP 11 Evaluation WP2 Web-site & information VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND WP1 Preliminary studies WP3 SWOT analysis Selection of focus areas and applications WP4 Scenario and vision workshop WP6 Roadmap seminar National seminars WP7 Action seminar WP9 Reporting WP10 Nordic conference 42

43 Four thematic roadmaps were created in different scenario settings User acceptance Health Scenario 2: Nordic Mystique Harmony Scenario 1: ICT for Security s Sake (Information) Security EU US EU US Open source China Scenario 3: Elite Users Paradise Chin a Scenario 4: Big Business Lock-In Lock-in Business paradigm EU US EU US Production economy Chin a Conflict China Experience economy 43

44 Workshop process Backoffice Plenary session I Groupwork I four thematic groups Groupwork II Plenary session II Groupwork III Plenary session III Brainstorming: elaborating the sociotechnical visions for the roadmaps, four thematic groups Elaborating the visions Priority setting Identifying critical factors Linking the visions and factors Drafting links between roadmap levels Drafting the roadmaps Draft roadmaps Discussion Deepening the links Elaborating Finishing the roadmaps Presenting the detailed roadmaps: elaboration, iteration Day 1 Day 2 44

45 1. Identification of target applications Key question: Future ICT applications that would enhance Nordic productivity, create jobs and well-being. Technical applications Societal drivers Market drivers Threat 1 Threat 2 Threat 3 Potential substitute Target 1 Target 2 Target 3 Target n 45

46 2. Prioritization of target applications 1) Prioritazing targets 2) Choosing the most important targets in different areas Societal drivers Market drivers Other drivers Threat 1 Threat 2 Threat 3 Potential substitute Target 1 Target 2 Target 3 Target n 46

47 3. Drafting the links between roadmap fields 1) Identification of the most important factors in the target fields 2) Estimation of their importance 3) Characterizing and explicating the links between the factors Science and education level Technology level Science and education level Technology level Government level Target / vision Business and industry level Government level Target / vision Business and industry level Market level = factor important only in this particular target = factor important in both targets Market level 47

48 Roadmap template for Nordic ICT Foresight Science and education level Target 1 Technology level Target 2 Target 3 Business and industry level Target 4 Market level Government level Target

49 Roadmapping in progress 49

50 Science and education Documentation How healthcare can be changed / reduced Self-diagnosis & preventive healthcare in early education Focus on the positive effects on the individual well-being Scientific standards might block initial entrance of new products Combination of psych. & pedagogic e-learning research & education Focus on the technology as a tool for better care in the education of professionals Scientific documentation of results & impacts Technology Business and industry Market Government Alarm systems (type "I need help now") exist already Seed money for starting new business Short term: 1 5 years Broad range of sensor, communication & database technologies Focus on demographic driven products (demand from home care) New products in existing market channels, like pharmacies Counselling decision support systems Support for cost-effective self-care systems (driver) Standard setting on different levels Insurance companies support Service automation Stimulate pilot products and system by research and development Regulations for selling / exporting diagnostic products etc. Research funding for small business development User-friendly interfaces Combinations of technologies and social innovations Regulation for ensuring privacy (secure & confidential information) Replacing or supporting human care with ICT? Verification for alarm status (avoidance of false alarms) "Nordic platform" for testing new applications Private user market Government and insurance market Medium term: 5 10 years Technologies that use all senses Culture dependent products: Nordic platforms and other market variants Defining the border between professional medical care and self-care "Nordic health support" - established as a reference for individual care and support Professional doctors might not want laymen to decide on health issues Better contextual understanding empowerment of citizens 50 Demanding market for self diagnosis / sefl-care Long term: over 10 years INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS AND PRODUCTS SUPPORTING SELFCARE, DIAGNOSIS AND MONITORING

51 Conclusions What to remember Roadmapping process can be performed in multiple ways Process should be defined by considering the aims and the scope of the problem and the available resources to tackle the problem There is no single right way to make roadmaps Roadmapping process advances through steps E.g. drivers, markets, solutions, actors and enabling technologies Workshops Process phases Roadmapping is a collaborative learning process Different people in organizations Representatives of different stakeholders Creation of a common perspective of the future Commitment and action planning according to that common perspective 51

52 VTT creates business from technology 52