What if Uber or AirBnb Happened to the Home Building Industry? 2018 RESNET Building Performance Conference Orlando, FL

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Allen Lee
5 years ago
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1 What if Uber or AirBnb Happened to the Home Building Industry? 2018 RESNET Building Performance Conference Orlando, FL

2 Ari Colby Steve

3 Vacuum Splitting Laser Self Driving Trucks The Cell Atlas Age of Magic Hot Solar Cells Gene Therapy 2.0 Paying With Your Face

5 The Magic Connection More than 20 years ago, in 1992, global Internet networks carried approximately 100 GB of traffic per day. Ten years later, in 2002, global Internet traffic amounted to 100 Gigabytes per second (GBps). In 2016, global Internet traffic reached more than 20,000 GBps. Cisco Systems

6 The Magic

7 Let s Disrupt! Homebuilders!

8 Impact on Housing?

9 What would Apple do? What IS IKEA doing? What would Google do? What IS Katerra doing? What would Amazon do? What IS Blokable doing?

10 Industrial Robots $500,000 $22,000 23x in 5 yrs Drones $100,000 $ x in 6yrs Solar Energy $30/kW 200x in 30 yrs LiDAR (sensors) $20,000 $79 250x in 5 yrs DNA Sequencing $10MM $1,000 10,000x in 7 yrs CNC Machine $1MM $10, x in 30 yrs Housing $172,000 $272, /kW 1.5x in 17 yrs

11 Pre 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Manual Distributed Circular Powered Centralized Linear Mechanized Centralized Linear Digital Centralized Linear Digital Distributed Smart Circular Low Workshop Setup Cost Hi Product Cost Many Products Customized Hi Factory Setup Cost Med Product Cost One Products One Size Fits All Hi Factory Setup Cost Low Product Cost One Products One Size Fits All Med Factory Setup Cost Very Low Product Cost One Products One Size Fits All Low Factory Setup Cost Very Low Product Cost Many Products Mass Customized No Resilience to Demand Drops No Resilience to Demand Drops No Resilience to Demand Drops Resilient, On-Demand, Circular Craftsman Early Factory The Ford Factory Modern Factory Future Factory

12 Trade Coordination Correct Materials Design Details Behind Schedule Fraught with Mistakes Logistically Challenging Proper Lot Accurate Timing Terribly Inefficient Regulation / Code Necessary Tools / Training

14 Access versus ownership? 20-year warranties...customers for life?

15 Homes that grow with you?

16 Software Development Flextronics, Tech Startups Marketing & Community Relations Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation International Flextronics & Kymeta Supply Chain, etc. Hewlett-Packard Manufacturing CEVA Logistics, Flextronics $865 M Building Engineering Engineering - Apple headquarters, Bejing Olympic Stadium Finance Amkor Technology, Price Waterhouse Construction Kitchell Contractors, Bernards Brothers IT SanDisk Architecture, Interior Design First commercial Living Building Challenge built in the World

17 Automated Quality Assurance?

18 The Future of Home Building Role of the HERS Rater?

19 WHY CHANGE? aren t things pretty good?

20 In a high quality building environment, what is the place for low-cost commodity rating work? Controlled environment = Far fewer mistakes Data Job-site construction time reduced by as much as 33 % Key material utilization reduced by as much as 25% Skilled labor needs on site reduced by approximately 40% to 60% Less need for traditional QA Remaining on-site QA needs????

21 Future of QA & HERS Adapt or die... Find a new niche New QA role Trade Education Data wrangling What happens when everything is Net Zero? Defacto Asset ---> Operational Ratings Opportunity wrapped around a threat

22 Data What data are you gathering? What value does it have? What are you doing to leverage that value?

23 Bridging from today to tomorrow Anticipate change Develop a pathway Prepare to be wrong What are you going to do... Tomorrow - THURSDAY! to start planning? Get involved with your local start-up community! What incubators are happening where you live? If nothing s happening well?

24 How to get started Innovation 101 DIY = Disruption is You!

25 Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future. - John F. Kennedy

26 Breakout Questions 1. When energy is free/nearly free, what are the implications to the builder, Rater, trades, homeowners? 2. When offsite becomes the norm, what are the implications to the builders, the Rater, trades, homeowners? 3. When robotics and AI are ubiquitous, what are the implications to the builder, Rater, trades, homeowners? What are you doing now to deal w/ this?

27 When you leave here... Attend local start-up community events Lookup meetups AutoDesk BUILD space - Boston... Attend non-traditional conferences: BuiltWorlds - Machine/Robotics in Construction - May 3 Chicago CES - Las Vegas Singularity Summit - Futurist conference - Aug San Fran. World of Modular ICC code Conferences

Banning Garrett, PhD

TEAGASC Technology Foresight 2035 Dublin, Ireland 8 March 2016 Banning Garrett, PhD Adjunct Faculty, Singularity University Senior Fellow, Global Federation of Competitiveness Councils Chief Strategy Officer,