Foresight in Russia. HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS National Research University. Alexander Sokolov. Foresight Training Course for South Africa

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1 HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS National Research University Foresight in Russia Alexander Sokolov Foresight Training Course for South Africa March 2018 Pretoria

2 Technology Foresight system in Russia Strategic objectives and priorities of socioeconomic development including S&T development (Addresses of the President of Russia) Strategic foresight Forecast of socioeconomic development Budget forecast Socioeconomic development strategy for Russia National level Russian S&T Foresight Priority S&T areas and critical technologies for Russia State S&T development programme Sectoral level Componie s programmes and target documents Sectoral S&T foresights Sectoral priority areas and critical technologies Sectoral strategies Strategic research programmes for technology platforms Technology roadmaps Sectoral state programmes Regional level Spatial development strategy Development strategy for macroregions State regional programmes Development programmes for innovative regional clusters 2

3 Foresight Studies in Russia Federal level Regional level : Initiation of Foresight projects in Russia (HSE team) Sectoral and corporate level Foresight infrastructure Critical technologies (national) STI priorities for Bashkortostan Roadmap for power engineering equipment S&T Foresight 2025 Foresight for nanoindustry markets STI priorities for natural resources Demand for future skills Foresight for civil society Sectoral roadmaps for new materials (space, aircraft, nuclear energy) Roadmap for medicine & pharmaceutical industry Roadmap for water purification S&T Foresight 2030 Critical technologies (national) STI priorities for Moscow STI priorities for Samara Foresight for ICT and mass media 2030 Tomsk innovation infrastructure STI priorities for Tula Roadmaps for technology platforms Programmes of innovative development of state owned companies: priorities, roadmaps, technology audit, et al. Roadmap for space navigation Roadmap for composite materials S&T Foresight Roadmap for LED manufacturing for aircraft sector Roadmaps for energy efficiency Roadmaps for oil & gas sector: upstream & downstream Foresight for shipbuilding Software Interaction with expert network Online database on global technology trends Software Interactive technology roadmaps National Foresight system Concept of a roadmap for automotive industry: FCV Critical technologies (national) Foresight Services for Tekes Russia Foresight for National universities (5/100) Technology Foresight system for Energy sector Roadmaps for aircraft sector Critical technologies for Energy and Health sectors Foresight for Agriculture Assistive Technologies Network of sectoral S&T Foresight centres Transport Development Strategy 2030 Russia S&T Foresight 2030 (update) Competence Foresight Foresight for regions Foresight of Social and Human Sciences S&T Foresight for Agriculture Foresight for Universities Identification of Global Challenges and Trendsf or S&T Areas in BRICS Global Technology Trends

Application-driven S&T Foresight Global trends and challenges of S&T

points of effort s application Roadmaps for priorities realisation

market segments Innovative products and services hoto S&T Products New

4 Application-driven S&T Foresight Global trends and challenges of S&T development Scenarios of long-term S&T development Identification of points of effort s application Roadmaps for priorities realisation External factors Alternatives System of priorities photo Perspective market segments Innovative products and services hoto S&T Products New technological solutions Markets Highest importance and S&T potential photo R&D 4

5 S&T Foresight Key instruments Foresight Critical technologies (priorities) Roadmaps (routs) Complex projects (actions) Challenges Critical Technologies of the Russian Federation Strategies to enter the market State programmes Markets Strategies for technology development Priorities Products Technologies R&D Sectoral Foresight studies Thematic areas State of Russian R&D Evaluation of industrial potential Characteristics of markets, innovative products Support programmes Sectoral critical technologies S&T/R&D programmes Optimal trajectories to reach the aims Research Technological development Technology imports Human resources, competencies Infrastructure Government policy measures t 5

6 S&T Foresight of the Russian Federation Russia 2030: S&T Foresight Prospective S&T Areas Key sectors of economy Technology roadmaps > 150 global trends in areas of economy, science, policy, society Effects and timing of maximum impact Approved by the Prime-Minister (January 2014) Features > 80 promising markets and 250 product groups >1000 specific R&D priorities 6

Russian S&T Foresight 2030: Methodology Goal: to identify the most promising areas of S&T development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the implementation of the nation s competitive advantages.

7 Russian S&T Foresight 2030: Methodology Goal: to identify the most promising areas of S&T development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the implementation of the nation s competitive advantages. S&T areas* Information and communication technologies Life sciences (medicine & biotechnology) New materials and nanotechnology Rational use of natural resources GLOBAL CONTEXT Global trends Estimated effects Information base (more than 200 sources) Markets Horizon scanning Bibliometric and patent analyses Wild cards and weak signals Product groups Thematic S&T areas Priority tasks for R&D Global centres of excellence Transport and space systems Energy efficiency and energy saving *S&T Foresight 2030 is designed across the priority areas of S&T in the Russian Federation (approved by Presidential Decree, , 899) NATIONAL CONTEXT Challenges and windows of opportunity Stakeholder mapping In-depth interviews, focus groups Expert panels Prospective market niches Assessment of the R&D level in Russia 7

S&T Foresight: major steps Primary sources of data Forecasts Foresights Strategies Research fronts Special questionnaire Survey Selection criteria More than 600 Extended list of trends and S&T areas

8 S&T Foresight: major steps Primary sources of data Forecasts Foresights Strategies Research fronts Special questionnaire Survey Selection criteria More than 600 Extended list of trends and S&T areas List of expert panels Validation of extended list of trends and S&T areas Tools for communication with experts Surveys Analysis of results Selection criteria More than 1500 Expert database Citation index, Conomination, Patents Combination of qualitative and quantitative methods Basic questionnaire Expert panels Working groups Seminars Final validation Analytical reports Dissemination

9 S&T Foresight Results: Emerging global challenges Economic and structural Social Environmental Growing demand for food Improving wellbeing in developing countries Economic globalisation Biosecurity Food security Energy security Political and institutional Social stratification, poverty Demographic problems Urbanisation Public health Emergence of new technology wave Demand for S&T innovations Problems with production systems reliability Technological Loss of biodiversity Climate change Degrading agri- and ecosystems Depleting natural resources Rejection of new institutes by the public Rejection of new technologies by the public Ethical dilemmas Values 9

Benchmarking R&D in Russia vs Global Leaders Priority

Publications in peer reviewed journals Research fronts

competence Analysis of fast growing areas Benchmarking

10 Benchmarking R&D in Russia vs Global Leaders Priority areas of S&T Thematic S&T areas Priority R&D tasks Publications in peer reviewed journals Research fronts Global centres of excellence in S&T National centres of competence Analysis of fast growing areas Benchmarking against global leaders Parity Word leader Groundwork White spots 10

11 Informing policy making Level of R&D Support measures The most important topics photo Time of realisation Leading country hoto Application areas photo 11

12 Selection of priorities on the basis of the Delphi survey Priority application areas Priority application areas photo Areas of R&D for public support Areas of R&D for public support hoto photo 12

Identification of promising innovation clusters

and R&D level Importance for Russia Integration

13 Identification of promising innovation clusters Living systems: correlation between importance and R&D level Importance for Russia Integration of bio, nano and information technologies Biosensors, biomedicine photo hoto Cell technologies, biocathalysis, biosynthesis Level of Russian R&D photo 13

Detailed assessment of prospective technology areas Gap

support required Reducing damage caused by socially

Perspective areas for practical application of R&D

14 Detailed assessment of prospective technology areas Gap between future consumer needs and R&D capacities: state support required Reducing damage caused by socially important diseases Broadband multimedia services Perspective areas for practical application of R&D results photo Nuclear energy hoto Areas for stimulating market demand photo 14

15 Using Foresight Results for STI Policy Government Search for «objective» criteria to select priorities for state support «Fine tuning» of the existing instruments and build up of a line of new ones Involvement of business and society Openness, availability and practical relevance of foresight results Elimination of interdepartmental barriers Research institutions Development of a research agenda Integration into global research space Universities Development of educational programmes Development of a research agenda Build up of a development strategy R&D priorities Recomme ndations Foresight results Products, services Trends and challenges Development institutions Markets Development of innovative environment Communication platforms Joint projects and initiatives Companies Development of long-term strategies and plans Technological modernisation Integration into global value chains Society New behavioral models Change of consumer preferences 15

16 Sectors of economy: The case of agriculture

Global challenges directly influence technological choices for Russia's agricultural sector Social Economy Food supply and demand Dynamic shifts in business models Economic globalization and

17 Global challenges directly influence technological choices for Russia's agricultural sector Social Economy Food supply and demand Dynamic shifts in business models Economic globalization and subsidizing of exports by some countries Policy Policymakers still consider food production as an activity attached to rural areas National food security concerns often directly conflict with global trade integration commitments Food vs. Biofuels dilemma is not solved yet Biosecurity threats are on the rise: invasive species, gene contamination, epidemics going to new areas due to climate change, bioterrorism, etc. Values Land ownership liberalization barriers across the globe Biotechnology application is hindered by controversies Activism against animal cruelty Disruptive innovations in agriculture threaten indigenous peoples E P S V Healthy lifestyle, individualized food, organic products Wealth inequality, limited access to premium food Structural unemployment in rural areas New waves of urbanization and rural areas depopulation Growing concentration of populace in the global cities creates new food supply continuity issues E T Technology Environment Climate change redraws the agricultural map of the world Soil degradation is still a hot issue Agrobiodiversity is threatened World Ocean bioproductivity challenges Green Revolution effects are exhausted. New technology wave is needed based on biotech, Big Data and robotics Urban agriculture technologies will soon become the real game-changes NBIC-convergence will increase agriculture efficiency manifold Colossal losses of food on the retails / consumer stage require radically new technological solutions 17

Russia's agriculture specificities on a national level determine the concrete S&T priorities New potential export markets (Asia, Africa) Economic integration: Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS, WTO

18 Russia's agriculture specificities on a national level determine the concrete S&T priorities New potential export markets (Asia, Africa) Economic integration: Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS, WTO Deficit of highly qualified personnel Living environment in rural areas is gloom, it is not attractive for high class specialists Intensive rural depopulation Lack of innovative enterprises and people in the rural areas Regional food self sufficiency is topical issues for the northern regions Investment capital deficit Agricultural exports consist mainly of raw products Risks of unpredicted tariffs and customs regulations Экономические и структурные E вызовы S Социальные вызовы Экологические и природноресурсные E вызовы Natural conditions are good for the fertilizer industry development Climate change redraws the agroclimatic map of the country Insufficient and inefficient use of agrochemicals Economic co ordinations between agriculture and food industry is insufficient Russian fisheries global competitiveness could be destroyed by GMO based aquaculture worldwide Russia's agriculture sector V Ценностные вызовы T Политические и институциональные P вызовы Технологические вызовы New agriculture related diseases and pests, invasive species No efficient barriers for illegal fishing in the Far Eastern seas GMO might uncontrollably proliferate in some near border zones Falling behind the developed countries in smart agriculture, including biotech, IT, satellites use, robotics, swarm intelligence, etc. Embargo stimulates import substitution Administrative barriers for businesses are high Effective GMO ban Issues in agricultural education Undefined status, subordination and functions of a number of agricultural research centers GMO products resentment Social inequality between urban and rural areas Low prestige of agricultural professions Competitive advantages in precision agriculture (space and IT technologies) could be used more effectively Business enterprises, especially the small ones, are not willing to innovate Many technologies and machines that could be imported are not applicable due to bad technical infrastructure Business, science and education are not integrated properly 18

It is necessary to strengthen the integration between the production of agricultural raw materials and their processing within the country, and to form cross-cutting priorities for all units of

quality raw materials with GM raw materials, palm oil, raw materials, contaminated with pesticide residues Import of advanced processing products with high markup and not always healthy Potential

19 It is necessary to strengthen the integration between the production of agricultural raw materials and their processing within the country, and to form cross-cutting priorities for all units of agro-industrial complex Export of cheap basic raw materials (raw exports role in global food industry) Customs border Shortfall of at least $15 20 billion of export earnings Offshore Mixing high quality raw materials with GM raw materials, palm oil, raw materials, contaminated with pesticide residues Import of advanced processing products with high markup and not always healthy Potential import substitution of $10 20 billion supply Guerilla marketing, in disagreement with best practices of advertising regulation Processing of domestic raw materials abroad Trade balance surplus of Russia could be $35 40 billion higher in case of harmonious integration of domestic agriculture and food industry Weak associativity between the production and processing of agricultural raw materials causes food price increase, lowering of living standards, growth of social tension 19

20 Different technologies are needed for different scenarios of Russia's agriculture development Basic technologies Advanced technologies Goals: Food security Biological security Social stability Goals: Food security Biological security Social stability Exports expansion Resource efficiency Diversification Climate change adaptation Import substitution technologies for selection, breeding, new varieties and breeds Advanced individualized / personalized food production technologies Import substitution technologies to produce vaccines, antibiotics, probiotics, etc. Advanced precision agriculture technologies based on Big Data, machine learning, robotics, and swarm intelligence Equipment for epidemics and pests control Import substitution in production of basic agricultural machinery (tractors, combines, etc.) Urban agriculture technologies (robotic greenhouses, vertical farms, RAS, aquaponics, hydro/aeroponics, etc.) Systems integration technologies for advanced logistics and reduced food losses Basic food industry technologies to produce food for special needs, the disabled, children, people with allergies, etc. Synthetic biology Import substitution technologies of genetic engineering and control of GMO proliferation Local bioenergy + Smart Grid Basic technologies of precision agriculture based on GLONASS, domestic remote sensing satellites, etc. Wide range of LEISA technologies 20

CASE: Demand for new technologies by economic entities of different types (depending on the proprietary form, size) in

enterprises (semicommercial farming) Medium agricultural enterprises, agricultural cooperatives (commercial farming) Major

livestock breeding Zero tillage farming Loose housing of livestock Drip irrigation Individual preparation of mixed goods

21 CASE: Demand for new technologies by economic entities of different types (depending on the proprietary form, size) in agriculture sector of Russia Technology Private farm holdings (self sufficient farms) Owner operated farms/individual enterprises (semicommercial farming) Medium agricultural enterprises, agricultural cooperatives (commercial farming) Major agricultural holdings (commercial, export oriented farming) Organic agriculture Precise farming Large scale assembly line livestock breeding Zero tillage farming Loose housing of livestock Drip irrigation Individual preparation of mixed goods Integrated pest management Multistage planting Automation and computerization GM and hybrid seeds use Biofuels Potential of technology introduction High Medium Low 21

22 Thank you for your attention!

Russian S&T Foresight 2030: Methodology, Structure, Place in S&T Policy

Higher School of Economics Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge Foresight Centre Russian S&T Foresight 2030: Methodology, Structure, Place in S&T Policy Alexander Sokolov sokolov@hse.ru