Regional Technology Foresight Flanders 2015:

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1 Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Regional Technology Foresight Flanders 2015: Expert validated priority setting on technology and innovation within 6 strategic clusters in Flanders (Belgium) Elke Smits 1, Bart Van Looy 2, Koenraad Debackere 2, Elisabeth Monard 3, Vincent Thoen 1, Elie Ratinckx 1, Danielle Raspoet 1, Karel Vinck 1 (1) Flemish Science Policy Council, Brussels, Belgium; elke.smits@ewi.vlaanderen.be; vincent.thoen@ewi.vlaanderen.be; elie.ratinckx@ewi.vlaanderen.be; danielle.raspoet@ewi.vlaanderen.be; karel.vinck@cumerio.com (2) Managerial Economics, Strategy and Innovation, Faculty of Economics and Applied Economics, K.U.Leuven, Belgium; bart.vanlooy@econ.kuleuven.be; koenraad.debackere@econ.kuleuven.be (3) Research Foundation - Flanders, Brussels, Belgium; elisabeth.monard@fwo.be Abstract Innovation dynamics and their relationship with economic development (Solow, 1956; Schumpeter, 1959; Baumol, 2002) have stimulated the interest of policy makers in technology assessment and foresight exercises at the national and regional level (Martino, 1980; Callon et al., 1986; Varga, 1988; Porter, 1990; Martin & Irvine, 1989). Flanders, the Flemish region in Belgium, has demonstrated a consistent commitment towards regional technology foresight over the last five years. Based on several industry case studies, a coherent integrated policy support instrument was developed. This four-stage methodological framework allows for identifying, exploring, monitoring and supporting the development of scientific and technological domains by defining and implementing supportive actions and instruments from the perspective of stimulating innovation within the region (Debackere et al., 2000; Van Looy et al., 2000). This framework assumes different stages both at the level of the emergence of domains or fields and at the level of developing appropriate policies aimed at fostering and supporting the participation of (regional) actors within this process. While in the past, this framework has been developed to allow policy makers to arrive at well argued choices related to science and technology policies within specific sectors and industries (Smits et al., 2006; Van Looy et al., 2001; Verbeek et al., 2004 a-b), the Flemish Science Policy Council has recently applied this methodology for delineating priorities on technology and innovation for Flanders. Keywords: regional foresight technology and innovation - reference framework Theme 1: FTA Assumptions, methods and approaches in the context of achieving outcomes -1-

2 1. Process of priority setting on technology and innovation in Flanders Based on the matching of international trendanalyses with an exhaustive SWOT-analysis assessing scientific, technological, innovative and economic characteristics of the Flemish region six strategic clusters for Flanders were identified: Strategic cluster 1: Transport Logistics Services Supply Chain Management Strategic cluster 2: ICT and Services in Healthcare Strategic cluster 3: Healthcare Food and Agriculture Prevention and treatment Strategic cluster 4: New Materials (Nanotechnology) Manufacturing industry Strategic cluster 5: ICT for Socio-economic innovation Strategic cluster 6: Energy and Environment for Services and Manufacturing Industry For this regional foresight exercise, 130 highly competent experts from industry and academia were involved for delineating priorities within these strategic domains for Flanders towards First session of expert panels During the first session, the experts were informed on the research project and the results of the strengths & weaknesses analysis were presented. For each strategic cluster, technological trends identified in a recent European foresight study (Nordmann et al., 2005) were validated and completed by the experts. 3.1 Survey Based on insights obtained from the first session, a survey was held on future technological and socio-economic evolutions for each of the strategic clusters. Experts were questioned about the feasibility of these trends towards 2015, the technological en economic strength of Flanders with respect to these trends, leading countries for these trends, possible bottlenecks in financing, education, regulatory processes, innovation in existing firms and spin-off activity to translate the technological trend into economic activity of significant value. 3.1 Second session of expert panels During the second session of expert panels, results of the survey were presented. These results were used as a start for the panel discussions. The following criteria were set to come to priority settings within each strategic cluster: Theme 1: FTA Assumptions, methods and approaches in the context of achieving outcomes -2-

3 Which development in technology and innovation has the greatest potential to create wealth in Flanders starting from a technological strength? Which development in technology and innovation has the greatest potential to create wealth in Flanders starting from an economic strength? or both? At the end of the second session, a consensus on prioritary techno-economic trends were obtained by the expert panels within each of the six strategic clusters. 2. Thirty techno-economic trends and fifteen critical innovation factors within six strategic clusters The 130 experts from industry and academia identified thirty techno-economic trends and fifteen critical innovation factors within six strategic clusters. Table 1: Thirty techno-economic trends within six strategic clusters Six strategic clusters for Flanders Priority setting for Flanders Intermodal transport Strategic cluster 1: Transport Logistics Services Supply Chain Management Intelligent supply chain management Intelligent transport systems Virtual design and production E-health: electronic medical file and integration of health care information systems Strategic cluster 2: ICT and Services in Healthcare Innovative health care services and products Medical imaging: computer-assisted reading, diagnosis and therapy molecular and functional imaging Multidisciplinarity: bioinformatics cheminformatics - neuroinformatics Theme 1: FTA Assumptions, methods and approaches in the context of achieving outcomes -3-

4 Molecular diagnostics and biomarkers Preventive and therapeutic vaccins Strategic cluster 3: Healthcare: Prevention- Treatment Cell therapy Molecular biology research for diagnosis and treatment Translational medicine Interdisciplinarity with applications in health care: system biology and biomedical engineering Relation between food and health Food and Agriculture Agricultural biotechnology Industrial biotechnology Structured micro and nanomaterials Strategic cluster 4: New Materials (Nanotechnology) Manufacturing industry Materials for nanoelectronics, microoptics, fotonics, micromechanics Materials with unique composition: biomaterials, metals, ceramic materials, polymers Materials and material systems interacting with the environment Enabling Technologies Advanced networks: broadband-mobile-wireless (always connected; multi-access) Strategic cluster 5: ICT for Socio-economic innovation Criteria for advanced networks: user friendly and ambient intelligence context awareness security and privacy Converging technologies and application development E-applications: E-health and E-society Theme 1: FTA Assumptions, methods and approaches in the context of achieving outcomes -4-

5 Efficient energy use in industry and buildings Strategic cluster 6: Energy and Environment for Services and Manufacturing Industry Smart Grids Energy generation: photovoltaics biomass efficient use of fossil fuels nuclear energy fuel cells Sustainability of production processes and products: environment friendly production processes industrial biotechnology agricultural biotechnology decontamination of water, air, soil Figure 1: The actual position of Flanders with respect to the 15 critical innovation factors identified and scored by the experts during the panel sessions. & ' ( & $ ) ) * # & * &! " " # $ " % *! $ ) & * ' # ) * * ) & ) * 3. Valorisation of this foresight exercise on technology and innovation: reference framework This priority setting on technology and innovation will be presented as a reference framework to all stakeholders in Flanders: government, industry and academia. Its valorisation occurs in function of two dimensions: on the level of intensity from bottom-up to top-down and on the level of policy involvement from hands-off to hands-on. Theme 1: FTA Assumptions, methods and approaches in the context of achieving outcomes -5-

6 Figure 2: Reference framework for all stakeholders: government, industry and academia! $ $, & -. " * * + 4. Conclusion A knowledge intensive society cannot survive and grow without periodic reflections on upcoming techno-economic trends and evolutions. Also in Flanders, there is a clear need for foresight exercises at the macro level. Such insights are now at the roots of a framework for policy makers which supports their strategic choices related to technology and innovation policies. Also, industrialists and scientists will be induced to act by these insights. This regional foresight research project is a dynamic process, in close conjunction with European initiatives and above all, supported by all actors in the innovation process. The future of Flanders as knowledge region is dependent on this kind of approach. 5. References 1. BAUMOL, W.J., The free-market Innovation Machine, Princeton University Press, Princeton, CALLON M., LAW J., RIP A. Mapping the Dynamics of Science and Technology, London: The Macmillan Press Ltd., DE BACKER K., SLEUWAEGEN L., COUCKE K., VANDENBROERE I., De industrieel-economische structuur en competitiviteit van de Vlaamse economie - Theme 1: FTA Assumptions, methods and approaches in the context of achieving outcomes -6-

7 bijdrage van de buitenlandse ondernemingen aan de Vlaamse kenniseconomie, Ed. by Steunpunt Ondernemerschap, Ondernemen en Innovatie, DEBACKERE K., VEUGELERS R., BOUWEN R., VAN LOOY B., ZIMMERMAN E. Methodological framework for examining science and technology in Flanders, K.U.Leuven, DEBACKERE K. & VEUGELERS R., Flemish Indicator Book, Ed. by Steunpunt O&O Statistieken, MARTIN B.R. and IRVINE J. Research Foresight: Priority-Setting in Science, London: Pinter, MARTINO J. Technological Forecasting An Overview, Management Science, vol.26, No.1, 1980, pp NORDMANN A., Creative system disruption towards a research strategy beyond Lisbon, European Commission DG Research: Key technologies Expert Group, PATEL P. and PAVITT K. National Innovation Systems: Why They Are Important and How They Might Be Measured and Compared", Economics of Innovation and New Technology, vol. 3, 1994, pp PORTER, M.E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, The Free Press, New York, SCUMPETER, J.A., The theory of economic development, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., SMITS E., VAN LOOY B., DEBACKERE K., MONARD E. Five years of regional technology assessment : the Flemish Experience, Veille Stratégique Scientifique et Technologique, Lille, SOLOW, R Technological Change and the Aggregate Production Function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, VAN LOOY B., DEBACKERE K., ANDRIES P., ZIMMERMAN E., CALLAERT J., VERBEEK A. Technologies for the future: looking a decade ahead, Incentim K.U.Leuven, VAN LOOY B., ZIMMERMANN E., DEBACKERE K., VEUGELERS R., BOUWEN R. Development of a Methodological Framework for Examining Science and Technology in Flanders. 2. Methodological Framework, K.U.Leuven, VARGA, A. University Research and Regional Innovation. A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Academic Technology Transfers. Kluwer Academic Publishers, VERBEEK A., DEBACKERE K., WOUTERS R. Chemical industry in Flanders. Published by Flemish Science Policy Council ( 2004a 18. VERBEEK A., DEBACKERE K., WOUTERS R. Food industry in Flanders. Published by Flemish Science Policy Council ( 2004b Theme 1: FTA Assumptions, methods and approaches in the context of achieving outcomes -7-

8 19. ZIMMERMANN E., DEBACKERE K., VAN LOOY B., RANGA M., VEUGELERS R., BOUWEN R. Development of a Methodological Framework for Examining Science and Technology in Flanders. 1. Methodological Building Block, K.U.Leuven, 2000a 20. ZIMMERMANN E., DEBACKERE K., VAN LOOY B., RANGA M., VEUGELERS R., BOUWEN R. Development of a Methodological Framework for Examining Science and Technology in Flanders. Case Study 1: ICT & Learning, K.U.Leuven, 2000b Theme 1: FTA Assumptions, methods and approaches in the context of achieving outcomes -8-