How not to Build an Offshore Wind Farm Bronwyn Sutton 04 October 2016

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1 How not to Build an Offshore Wind Farm Bronwyn Sutton 04 October 2016

2 SgurrEnergy Engineering consultancy, renewables focus Established in Scotland in 2002; joined Wood Group in 2010 Global network of offices Over 300 experienced personnel Company wide triple BSI accreditation and UKAS ISO/IEC accreditation for wind farm power curve analysis Sgurr Fhuar-Thuill (source: stevenfallon.co.uk)

3 SgurrEnergy and Offshore Wind 70+ appointments including: Acquisition due diligence on 20+ projects Lenders engineer on 18 projects (lenders include ABN Amro, BayernLB, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Credit Agricole, Europaische Investitionsbank, Helaba, HSBC Bank, KfW Ipex, Lloyds Banking Group, Marubeni, Mitzhuo Bank, National Australia Bank, Natixis, Nordea, Rabobank, Santander, Societe Generale, Sumitomo Mitsui Bank and Unicredit) Involvement with c. 70% of offshore wind farms currently operational in Europe (by capacity)

4 Track Record On-going construction monitoring of six projects On-going operation monitoring for six projects Detailed insight into next generation turbine technology: Siemens SWT 6 & 7 MW Alstom Haliade Adwen 8 MW Ground-breaking lidar Lenders Technical Advisor Advisory Service Galion Measurement

5 Overview 25 years of offshore wind; where are we now? Lessons learned Development Execution Operation Looking forward

6 25 years of offshore wind Vindeby Middelgrunden Dudgeon First power Status Due for decommissioning Operational No WTG WTG capacity Rotor diameter Construction 0.45MW (4.45MW) 2MW (40MW) 6MW (402MW) 35m 76m 154m Tip height 52.5m 102m 187m Distance to shore Water depth 2km 5km 35km 4m 6m 27m

7 Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs)

8 Blades

9 Foundations Monopiles, tripods, jackets and gravity foundations have been used successfully offshore. To date, monopiles favoured due to: Reasonably simple logistics and installation Healthy supply chain Cost, both raw materials and manufacturing Suitable for a range of ground conditions can even be drilled into rock.

10 Foundations World s heaviest monopile, for use with Siemens 6MW WTG on Veja Mate. 1,302.5 tonnes 7.8m diameter 82.2m long Photo: EEW SPC/Andreas Duerst, Studio 301

11 Installation Vessels Heavy Lift SHL s Oleg Strashnov loaded with monopiles for Dudgeon Offshore Wind Farm

12 Installation Vessels Jack-up Barges A2SEA Sea Challenger installing Siemens 6MW WTG at Westermost Rough

13 Annual installed (MW) Cumulative installed (MW) Offshore Wind Installations in Europe annual cumulative

14 Support; Certainty and Reduction Year Source Location Duration Cost/MWh AUD/MWh Feed in tariffs offshore Germany 12 years $ The Crown Estate report UK NA 140 $ Strike price, enabling projects UK 15 years 150 $ CfD auction agreed strike price UK 15 years $ Horns rev 3 bid price Denmark 12 years 770 krone $ Borssele 1&2 bid price Netherlands 15 years 87 3 $ DECC/UK target UK NA 100 $170 1 Based on exchange rates on 28 September Note that the compensation and duration changes slightly based on water depth and distance from shore. 3 DONG s bid was 72.7, adding the transmission and project development costs as declared by the Dutch government the figure was 87.

15 Lessons Learned Development Phase

16 Wind Measurement Extrapolation from onshore masts Offshore meteorological masts Can fail Monitoring to ~80m Nacelle mounted LiDAR* / FLiDAR Rapid deployment Monitor to ~300m high, 4km range *Light Detection And Ranging /17/buoy-mounted-lidar-provides-costeffective-measurement-solution-foroffshore-wind-farm-developments/

17 Permitting Every country is different, however various impacts will need to be considered: Marine mammals Seabirds Seabed dwellers Fishing Shipping Radar Crossing of gas, oil, communications lines

18 Geotechnical Surveys Balance of cost and risk Several campaigns borehole to target depth Want to avoid overly optimistic or conservative interpretation and solutions Trianel GmbH

19 Demonstrators Essential for new entrants to prove capability Test of innovations e.g. twisted jacket First step for investor confidence

20 Lessons Learned Execution Phase

21 Scale up and Serial Production Absolute tolerances remain the same but relative precision increases Short cuts don t save time or money

22

23 Vessel Availability

24

25 Contractor Insolvency 2011 Subocean (cables) 2013 WinWind (developer) 2013 Windreich (developer) 2013 SIAG (foundation fabrication) 2015 Weserwind (foundation, substation fabrication) 2016??? Windfarm-UK.jpg

26 Lessons Learned Operational Phase

27 Foundations Grout, Corrosion Transition piece Mechanical stops Shear keys Grout Monopile

28 Leading edge erosion - minor

29 Leading edge erosion - major Source:

30 Wake Propagation Horns Rev

31 Lidar captures cumulative wake effects Accurate wake models can now be developed Future windfarms better designed as a result Real-time monitoring and control

32 Measured yaw error Wind flow Perfectly aligned

33 Measured yaw error Wind flow 15 o Yaw error Misaligned by 15 degrees: 7% performance loss

34 Australian challenges Remoteness from European WTG suppliers, vessels. Requirement for local content? Availability of local staff, contractors, vessels. Local seabed conditions. North Sea seabed is well understood by O&G and wind industry. Potential for new failures modes such as accelerated UV damage.

35 Looking forward

36 Availability Improvements 100% 95% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Early wind farm performance 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Contemporary wind farm performance Offshore1 Offshore2 Offshore3 Offshore1 Offshore2 Offshore3 Offshore4 Offshore5 Data are anonymised technical availability figures from a range of offshore wind farms.

37 The Options for +50m Depths Image: Atkins

38 Potential areas for Floating Wind

39 Existing and Planned FWT Installations Hywind Image: Statoil Image: Japan Marine United Corp Windfloat Image: Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding Windfloat Fukushima Forward Image: Principle Power? Demo Site Pre-Series Site Commercial Site

40 Questions? Feel free to connect with me on LinkedIn

41 Lender s Technical Advisor Experience Project Country Total WTG capacity (MW) Current Project Status Pre-FC Construction Operational Monitoring Beatrice UK 588 Construction Dudgeon UK 402 Construction Galloper UK 340 Construction Lincs UK 270 Operational London Array UK 630 Operational Lynn & Inner Dowsing UK 97.2 Operational Neart Na Gaoithe UK 450 Pre-construction Westermost Rough UK 210 Operational Borkum West II Germany 200 Operational Borkum West Phase 2 Germany Pre-construction Butendiek Germany 288 Operational Global Tech I Germany 400 Operational Meerwind Sud/Ost Germany 288 Operational Merkur (MEG I) Germany 396 Pre-construction Nordergrunde Germany Construction NordSee 1 (N1) Germany Construction Veja Mate Germany 402 Construction TOTAL 5,600.8

42 Independent Advisor and M&A Experience Project Country Size (MW) Current Project Status Barrow UK 90 Operational Burbo Bank extension UK Pre-construction Dudgeon UK 402 Construction Gunfleet Sands I and II UK Operational Gwynt y Mor UK 576 Operational London Array UK 630 Operational Neart Na Gaoithe UK 450 Pre-construction Ormonde UK 150 Operational Rampion UK Construction Rhyl Flats UK 90 Operational Sheringham Shoal UK Operational Gemini Netherlands 600 Construction BARD 1 Germany 400 Operational Dan Tysk Germany 288 Operational Gode Wind I Germany 330 Construction Gode Wind II Germany 252 Construction Riffgat Germany Operational Sandbank 24 Germany 288 Construction Eoliennes Offshore des Hautes Falasises France 498 Development Eoliennes Offshore du Calvados France 450 Development Parc du Banc de Guerande France 480 Development Rodsand II Denmark 207 Operational TOTAL 7,446