The Singularity, the MiniMaxularity, and Human Development (Part II)

Transcription

1 The Singularity, the MiniMaxularity, and Human Development (Part II) Selmer Bringsjord & Alexander Bringsjord Are Humans Rational? 10/12/17

2 The Singularity, the MiniMaxularity, and Human Development (Part II) Selmer Bringsjord & Alexander Bringsjord Are Humans Rational? 10/12/17

3 Last time: The Singularity Approaches... (Good-Chalmers Argument) (Kurzweil is an extrapolationist. )

4 Last time: A Realistic Timeline seen foreseeable claimed Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future AlphaGo

5 Last time: A Realistic Timeline seen foreseeable claimed Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future AlphaGo

6 ? Entscheidungsproblem 350 BC Euclid 300 BC Organon Universal Computational Logic 1666 Leibniz 1854 Logic Theorist (birth of modern logicist AI) 1956 Simon 2017 Intro to RPI 2020 T h e S i n g u l a r it y? Frege Exceeds Leibniz & de-mystifies Euclid: the compellingness of these proofs consists in their being, at bottom, formal proofs in first-order logic (FOL). Church Turing Post

7 350 BC Euclid Frege 300 BC Organon Universal Computational Logic 1666 Leibniz Exceeds Leibniz & de-mystifies Euclid: the compellingness of these proofs consists in their being, at bottom, formal proofs in first-order logic (FOL). Entscheidungsproblem 1854? Logic Theorist (birth of modern logicist AI) 1956 Simon Church Turing Post 2017 Intro to RPI 2020 Here s what a computer is, and given that, sorry, the Entscheidungsproblem can t be solved by such a machine! T h e S i n g u l a r it y?

8 The Problem: We re Ignoring the Mathematics! Analytical Super-Serious Hierarchy Human Cognitive Power Arithmetical Serious Human Hierarchy Cognitive Power Mere Polynomial Calculative Hierarchy Cognitive Power Jeopardy!: Watson Chess: Deep Blue Checkers: Chinook Go: AlphaGo Entscheidungsproblem Today s Machine Learning P NP PSPACE = NPSPACE EXPTIME NEXPTIME EXPSPACE

9 The Problem: We re Ignoring the Mathematics! Analytical Super-Serious Hierarchy Human Cognitive Power Arithmetical Serious Human Hierarchy Cognitive Power Mere Polynomial Calculative Hierarchy Cognitive Power Jeopardy!: Watson Chess: Deep Blue Checkers: Chinook Go: AlphaGo Entscheidungsproblem Today s Machine Learning P NP PSPACE = NPSPACE EXPTIME NEXPTIME EXPSPACE

10 Yeah, but what is the Entscheidungsproblem??

11 Yeah, but what is the Entscheidungsproblem?? Please read & study on your own using WWW.

12 A Realistic Timeline seen foreseeable claimed Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future AlphaGo

13 A Realistic Timeline seen foreseeable claimed Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future AlphaGo

14 Today A Realistic Timeline seen foreseeable claimed Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future AlphaGo

15 Today A Realistic Timeline seen foreseeable claimed Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future AlphaGo

16 Today A Realistic Timeline seen foreseeable claimed Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future AlphaGo

17 A Realistic Timeline Today seen foreseeable claimed Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future AlphaGo

18 A Realistic Timeline Today seen foreseeable claimed Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future AlphaGo

19 Recall Your Required (Quick) Reading The_Future_of_Employment.pdf SBringsjord_ABringsjord_SingularityBiz_ pdf

20 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)?

21 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler

22 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Herbert Simon

23 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Herbert Simon

24 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation)

25 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation)

26 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson James Miller Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation)

27 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson James Miller Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation) Brynjolfsson & McAfee

28 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson James Miller Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation) Brynjolfsson & McAfee Bill Gates ( Tax the robots! Really.)

29 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson James Miller Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation) Brynjolfsson & McAfee Bill Gates ( Tax the robots! Really.) S Bringsjord, J Johnson, A Bringsjord

30 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson James Miller Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation) Brynjolfsson & McAfee Bill Gates ( Tax the robots! Really.) S Bringsjord, J Johnson, A Bringsjord

31 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson James Miller Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation) Brynjolfsson & McAfee Bill Gates ( Tax the robots! Really.) S Bringsjord, J Johnson, A Bringsjord

32 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson James Miller Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation) Brynjolfsson & McAfee Bill Gates ( Tax the robots! Really.) S Bringsjord, J Johnson, A Bringsjord

33 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson James Miller Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation) Brynjolfsson & McAfee Bill Gates ( Tax the robots! Really.) S Bringsjord, J Johnson, A Bringsjord

34 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson James Miller Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation) Brynjolfsson & McAfee Bill Gates ( Tax the robots! Really.) S Bringsjord, J Johnson, A Bringsjord

35 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson James Miller Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation) Brynjolfsson & McAfee Bill Gates ( Tax the robots! Really.) S Bringsjord, J Johnson, A Bringsjord

36 Who else has seriously thought about the AI-Dis/employment question (or at least aspects thereof)? Kelso & Adler Jim Albus Nils Nilsson James Miller Herbert Simon Leontief & Duchin (automation) Brynjolfsson & McAfee Bill Gates ( Tax the robots! Really.) S Bringsjord, J Johnson, A Bringsjord

37 A Realistic Timeline seen foreseeable claimed Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future

38 A Realistic Timeline creativity seen foreseeable claimed Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future

39 A Realistic Timeline creativity seen foreseeable claimed $? Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future

40 A Realistic Timeline creativity seen foreseeable claimed $? Deep Blue Watson AI MiniMax AI <HI Sing AI =HI AI >HI past present future