America and the World,

Transcription

1 America and the World,

2 Other Books by the Author Dynamics of International Relations Baltic Independence and Russian Empire Can Russia Change? The U.S.S.R. and Global Interdependence The Superpowers and Arms Control Die Tschechoslowakei unter Husak The Arms Race and Sino-Soviet Relations Outer Space and Arms Control Khrushchev and the Arms Race Toward a Strategy of Peace World Perspectives on International Politics Soviet Disarmament Policy,

3 America and the World, Achievements, Failures, Alternative Futures Walter C. Clemens, Jr. MACMILLAN

4 2000 Walter C. Clemens, Jr. All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. Softcover reprint of the hardcover edition No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 9HE. Any person who does an unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claim for damages. First published by MACMILLAN PRESS 1st LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

5 for Julian Benjamin, Olivia Ellen, and Rose Elizabeth Clemens

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7 CONTENTS Acknowledgments Contributors Framework: Aims, Methods, Theories IX Xl 1 PART ONE THE TWENTIETH CENTURY 1. Achievements of United States Foreign Policy, Failures of United States Foreign Policy, Sources of Success and Failure 115 PART Two THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY 4. Power, Fitness, and Influence at the Cusp 5. Alternative Futures, A.D to Lessons from the Past, Guidelines for the Future Index 243

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9 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author wishes to thank all those who contributed to the surveys underlying chapters 1-3. Taken together, the contributors had expertise on every part of the world and on problems ranging from arms control to foreign aid to international law. Their answers could not establish the truth in any absolute sense, but their replies pointed to an expert consensus on some points. Both their agreements and disagreements enlarged my perspectives and stimulated my own reading and thinking. None of the contributors would agree with everything in this book; some disagreements among contributors are noted in the text. The surveys were facilitated by Samuel F. Wells, Jr. at the Wilson Center; the 1987 survey by Joseph S. Nye, Jr. at the Harvard University Belfer Center for Science and international Affairs; and the 1999 survey by Andrew Bacevich, Director of the Boston University Center for International Relations. Professors Hermann Fr. Eilts and David Mayers contributed to the surveys in 1987, as did Bacevich in Eilts reviewed nearly the entire manuscript and made many useful comments, as did Professor Lincoln P. Bloomfield at MIT. Mayers and Bacevich kindly reviewed parts of the manuscript in The book's interpretation of complexity theory owes much to the writings of Stuart Kauffman and to discussions with him in Santa Fe. The book's analysis of power and interdependence owes a great deal to the writings of Robert o. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye and to seminars with them at Harvard University. Lincoln P. Bloomfield at MIT introduced me to scenario-writing and simulations as ways to outline alternative futures. The analysis also benefits from seminars at the Belfer Center and the Davis Center for Russian Studies at Harvard University, the Center for International Studies at MIT, the Center for International Relations and the Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology, Policy

10 x AMERICA AND THE WORLD, at Boston University, and from comments by Stephen Miller, Steven Walt, Stephen Van Evera, and Hans Ulrich-Seidt at a conference "NATO: The First Fifty Years and Beyond" held on June 21, 2000 at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Dr. Randall Forsberg, president of the Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies, kindly provided her graphs showing trends in U.S. defense spending and procurement, shown in chapter 4. All cartoons are Copyright Jeff Danziger, Would that the words of political scientists cut so deeply as his images! Ali Ho Clemens of Internet Presence, Inc., provided many graphics as well as crucial moral support and reflection. Karen Wolny, Gabriella Pearce, Ruth Mannes, and Meg Weaver at St. Martin's Press were unstinting in their encouragement and assistance. The index was prepared by Asbed Kotchikian. Some reports on the surveys first appeared as op-ed essays in the Christian Science Monitor. Parts of chapter 5 appeared in International Journal and Communist and Post-Soviet Studies. The book develops many themes set out in the author's Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in An Era of Global Interdependence (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998). A parallel survey on Soviet achievements and failures appeared in the journal Survey and in my book, Can Russia Change? The USSR Confronts Global Interdependence (Boston: Unwin Hyman, 1990). The book is dedicated to my grandchildren with the wish that they and theirs can live in peace, prosperity, and freedom.

11 CONTRIBUTORS Many historians and political analysts graciously contributed to this book by responding, in writing or in interviews, to surveys conducted in , 1987, and The survey elicited responses from persons associated with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars: Henry Steele Commager, J. William Fulbright, George F. Kennan, Jon B. McLin, John G. Palfrey, George Packard, George Rentz, Irving Richter, and Samuel F. Wells. Commager, Fulbright, and Kennan did not reply in writing but in long interviews. Diane S. Clemens at the University of California in Berkeley also contributed a written response to the survey. Respondents to the 1987 survey were former Wilson Fellows Frans A. M. Alting von Geusau (The Netherlands), Yves Boyer (France), Peter Clausen, C. J. Hill (UK), Alan K. Henrikson, Takeshi Igarashi (Japan), Josef Joffe (Germany), Lawrence S. Kaplan, Sanford Lakoff, John Norton Moore, Charles C. Moskos, David McLellan, Henry R. Nau, Harry Howe Ransom, Herbert Spiro, Ronald L. Steel, John A. Thompson (UK), Leopold Unger (Belgium), Kenneth N. Waltz, Robert Wesson, M. C. Young, and Boston University professors Hermann Fr. Eilts, Jose E. Garriga-Pico, Roy A. Glasgow, William R. Keylor, William V. Shannon, Frank Zagare, Howard Zinno Their responses (28) amounted to about one-third those solicited in two mailings in All respondents were U.S. citizens or residents except as indicated. Former U.S. ambassadors Eilts and Spiro were born in Germany; professor Garriga-Pico in Puerto Rico; professor Glasgow in Trinidad and Tobago. Boston University faculty responding in were Andrew Bacevich, William Keylor, Max Otte (Germany), and Maria Rodriques (Brazil). From further afield, Bruce Cumings responded from the University of Chicago; J. David Singer from the University of Michigan; and John Nolte, New School of Social Research.

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13 America and the World,