The Making of a Digital World

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1 The Making of a Digital World

2 Evolutionary Processes in World Politics Series Series editor: William R. Thompson, Indiana University The Historical Evolution of World-Systems, edited by Christopher Chase-Dunn and E. N. Anderson (2005) Puzzles of the Democratic Peace: Theory, Geopolitics, and the Transformation of World Politics, by Karen Rasler and William R. Thompson (2005) The Making of a Digital World: The Evolution of Technological Change and How It Shaped Our World, by Joachim K. Rennstich (2008)

3 The Making of a Digital World The Evolution of Technological Change and How It Shaped Our World Joachim K. Rennstich

4 THE MAKING OF A DIGITAL WORLD Copyright Joachim K. Rennstich, Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published in 2008 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RG21 6XS Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Rennstich, Joachim K. The making of a digital world : the evolution of technological change and how it shaped our world / Joachim K. Rennstich. p. cm. (Evolutionary processes in world politics series) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Social change. 2. Social evolution. 3. Technological innovations Social aspects. 4. Globalization. I. Title. HM831.R dc A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: March

5 To my parents

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7 CONTENTS List of Figures List of Tables Acknowledgments ix xi xiii One Thinking about Globalization an Introduction 1 Two An Evolutionary Theory of Globalization 26 Three Four Five Six Drivers of Global Change Leading Sectors of the Informational Network Economy 71 Drivers of Leading Sector Change the Role of States, Organizations, and Individuals 135 Drivers of Leading Actor Change Interstate Rivalry at the Systemic Level 165 The Continuation of Change of the Global Complex System an Outlook on Its Future Development 198 Notes 212 References 228 Index 253

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9 LIST OF FIGURES 2.1 Generational Leadership Long Cycle Global Complex Systems Schematic Complex Global System Development Matrix System Leadership Transition IT-share (%) of Equipment Investment, United States, Semiconductor Sales ($ million), Internet Growth, Users and Share of World Population, Internet Host Survey Count, Number of Base Pairs (billions) and Sequences (millions) in GenBank Database, B/C Matrix of Organizational Interaction Forms Cellular Organizational Structures Major Power Rivalries, Major Power Wars, and Rivalry Environments, Number of Major Power Rivalries in Maritime Commercial Rivalry Environment, Number of Major Power Rivalries in Transition Phase 1 and Industrial Production Phase Rivalry Environment, Number of Major Power Rivalries in Industrial Production System Rivalry Environment, Number of Major Power Rivalries in Transition Phase 2 and Digital Commercial System Rivalry Environment,

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11 LIST OF TABLES 2.1 Hypothesized Relationship between Learning Long Cycle, K-waves, Global Lead Industries, and Network Phases (All Years CE) Phases of World System Evolution, McNeill, Wallerstein, Buzan and Little, and Modelski Extended Evolutionary World Politics Model of Process of Globalization, CE Evolutionary World Politics Matrix, Modern Era, CE ICT Equipment Investment in OECD countries, Percentage of Nonresidential Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Total Economy, Contribution of IT Equipment to Growth in Capital Equipment, United States, Percentage, Number of Internet Hosts (gtlds Adjusted) and Web Sites, per 1,000 Inhabitants, July 1997 July Key Global Telecom Indicators for the World Telecommunication Service Sector, , US$ billions (Adjusted for Inf lation) Mobile Subscribers in OECD Countries, Mobile Subscribers, Worldwide, Broadband Penetration, Subscribers per 100 Inhabitants, National Shares (in percentage) of the Total Number of Publications in the Biotechnology and Applied Microbiology NSIOD Journal Category, International Strategic Biotechnology Technology Alliances with at Least One Partner Based in the United States,

12 xii List of Tables 5.1 Major Power Rivalries Major Global Wars, Global Complex System Rivalry Environments, Main Characteristics, Global Complex System Rivalry Environments, Summary of Summary Statistics for Major Power Rivalries, Major Powers, Major Power Dyads, and Rivalry Environments Analysis of the Effect of Rivalry Environments on Number of Rivalries per Year 195

13 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS In the course of writing this book I have run up many debts of gratitude and it is my great pleasure to acknowledge them here. In the first place, my thanks are owed to William Thompson whose unrivalled intellectual rigor, breadth of knowledge, and sharpness of mind has never failed to open up new intellectual paths for me to venture on (as well as countless holes in my argument). No other teacher has ever presented me with such wealth of knowledge, devotion of time, attention, and guidance in such an extraordinarily generous and noble fashion. It is because of him that this work marks not an end but rather a beginning of many new endeavors. My deep appreciation extends to the following colleagues, Karen Rasler, Jeff Hart, and David Audretsch. How this work could have been completed without their generous advice and critical assistance I know not. I am especially grateful to Sharon La Roche and Scott Feickert who were generous in lending their assistance and encouragement during my entire time at Indiana University. The responsibility for the opinions conveyed in these pages is, of course, mine alone. However, the ideas themselves were developed, often challenged, and refined in the course of many exchanges with fellow colleagues and friends, old and new. In particular, I would like to mention: Giovanni Arrighi, Volker Bornschier, Chris Chase- Dunn, Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Michael Colaresi, Catherine Daily, Ulrich Erlhof, Clark Gibson, Nathan Griffith, Albrecht v. Harder, Kimberly Mealy, George Modelski, Ursula Rennstich, Julian Westerhout, and Nathan Zook. The team at Palgrave has provided me with much appreciated guidance and assistance along the editorial process this book would have been lacking in substance and style without their hard work and dedication. I also owe much gratitude to

14 xiv Acknowledgments Meghan Teich, who has constantly reaffirmed me in my endeavors. Finally, my largest debt remains to my parents. Their unquestioning support and more importantly, their guidance and boundless love have never failed me. No words could ever adequately express my gratitude.

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