References Glossary Symbols (minimal) Index of Figures, Causal Loop Diagrams, and Stock & Flow Diagrams Index...

Transcription

1 Contents 1 The Kingdom of Circular Processes: The Logical Foundations of Systems Thinking Looking Without Seeing and Seeing Without Looking : The Role of Models of Intelligence Seeing the Trees and the Forest: Zooming in on a World of Parts and Wholes Seeing the Dance of the Starry Sky: The Importance of Variables and Variations The Why Game: Searching for the Causal Chains The Serpent Bites Its Tail: Closed Causal Chains Loops Everything Comes Around Again to Itself: Systems and Their External and Internal Boundaries The Memory of a Snowball: The Systems of Systems Thinking Seeing the Impossible or the Impossibility of Seeing : Five Obstacles to Systems Thinking The Fifth Discipline: And the Other Four? First Discipline: Personal Mastery Second Discipline: Mental Models Third Discipline: Building Shared Vision Fourth Discipline: Team-learning Fifth Discipline: Systems Thinking Is a Sixth Discipline Possible? Control Thinking Appendix 1.1 Skills and Obstacles for the Spread of Systems Thinking The Seven Skills of the Systems Thinker The Seven Obstacles to Systems Thinking The Fundamental Impediments The Situational Impediments Three Areas to Facilitate the Adoption of Systems Thinking ix

2 x Contents 2 The Arrow That Constructs the World: The Causal Loop Diagrams Technique Give Me an Arrow and I Will Construct the World: Technique for the Construction of Systems Models of the World All Things Vary: Variables and Causal Relationships Giving a Direction to Change: Reinforcing [R] and Balancing [B] Loops Let Us Chain Together the World: Constructing Causal-Loop-Diagrams for Every System Si vis pacem para bellum: The Analysis of Processes and Analytical CLDs Quieta non movere, mota quietare! Stability in Perpetual Motion He Who Plants Dates Does Not Eat Them: Decision-making and Control Systems Impulses, Responses and Delays The Numbers Game? Attempts at Numerical Simulation Which Came First, the Chicken or the Egg? Systems Dynamics Stocks and Flows? How the System Alters Its States Models of Models: Translation Examples The Map Is Not the Territory It Represents: The Problem with Modelling in Systems Thinking Appendix 2.1 Causal Loop Diagrams for Everyone Appendix 2.2 Escalation of Arms in Richardson s Model Appendix 2.3 Representation of an Economic System Appendix 2.4 Malthusian Dynamics Systems Thinking for the Control of Phenomena: How to Construct a Control System The Truth Is in the Profound: The Relevance of Control Systems The Manager s Cake: The Structure of Control Systems Even Firms Take Showers: The Management of the System Old Showers and Tubs: The Control Strategy A Car Ride: Multi-lever and Multi-level Control Even Firms Take Car Rides: Multi-level Control Strategies Managers Learn to Fly: Multi-objective Control and Control Policies It Doesn t Matter Whether You re a Lion or Gazelle: When the Sun Comes Up, You d Better Be Running Control Systems in the Socio-Economic Context Control Yourself: The Human Aspects of Control Control Systems for Needs and Aspirations

3 Contents xi 3.11 Do Not Use a Slingshot to Sink a Ship or a Cannon to Kill a Fly Appendix 3.1 A Bit of Unpretentious Robotics: A Robot in Motion in n Dimensions Appendix 3.2 Viable Systems as Control Systems Appendix 3.3 Dashboards in Performance Control Systems Appendix 3.4 The Control of Projects with Grid Programming: CPM and PERT Systems Thinking Applied to Problem Solving: System Levers Problems Every Day and Throughout the Day: Problem Solving As You Make Your Bed, So You Must Lie in It: Solutions That Fail Don t Hide Your Head in the Sand: Problem Finding Who Left the Forceps in My Uncle s Stomach? Ishikawa s Diagrams and Procedural Analyses These Fishbones Are Not a Problem: From Linear Diagrams to Causal Loops Obtaining the Maximum Result with the Minimum Effort: How to Exploit the Leverage Effect A Bird in the Hand Is Worth Two in the Bush: Short-term and Local Preference in Evaluating Alternatives Errare humanum est sed perseverare diabolicum: The Erosion of Objectives The More You Have, the More You Want, But...No One Is Naïve: Success to the Successful and Punishment for the Successful In the Interests of All, a Common Tragedy: The Tragedy of the Commons Nothing Grows Ad Infinitum: The Limits of Growth and the Lack of Investment Don t Meddle in a Quarrel Between Husband and Wife: Accidental Adversaries Conclusion: Observing and Judging with Systems Thinking Appendix 4.1 The Laws of Systems Thinking Today s Problems Come from Yesterday s Solutions The Harder You Push, the Harder the System Pushes Back Behaviour Grows Better Before It Grows Worse The Easy Way Out Usually Leads Back in The Cure Can Be Worse Than the Disease Faster Is Slower

4 xii Contents Cause and Effect Are Not Closely Related in Time and Space Small Changes Can Produce Big Results You Can Have Your Cake and Eat It Too: But Not at Once Dividing an Elephant in Half Does Not Produce Two Small Elephants There Is No Blame Appendix 4.2 The Principles of Systems Thinking Applied to Problem Solving References Glossary Symbols (minimal) Index of Figures, Causal Loop Diagrams, and Stock & Flow Diagrams Index

5