Contents Modeling of Socio-Economic Systems Agent-Based Modeling

Transcription

1 Contents 1 Modeling of Socio-Economic Systems Introduction Particular Difficulties of Modeling Socio-Economic Systems Modeling Approaches Qualitative Descriptions Detailed Models Simple Models Modeling Complex Systems Challenges of Socio-Economic Modeling Promises and Difficulties of the Experimental Approach Several Models Are Right No Known Model Is Right The Model Captures Some Features, But May Be Inadequate Different Interpretations of the Same Model Discussion and Outlook Pluralistic or Possibilistic Modeling and Multiple World Views: The Way Out? Where Social Scientists and Natural Scientists or Engineers Can Learn from Each Other References Agent-Based Modeling Why Develop and Use Agent-Based Models? Potential of Computer Simulation in the Socio-Economic Sciences Equation-Based Versus Agent-Based Approach Scientific Agent-Based Models Versus Computer Games Advantages of Agent-Based Simulations xi

2 xii Contents Understanding Self-organization and Emergence Examples of Agent-Based Models Social Super-Computing Principles of Agent-Based Modeling Number of Parameters and Choice of Model Implementation and Computer Simulation of Agent-Based Models Coding Multi-agent Simulations and Available Software Packages Specification of Initial and Boundary Conditions, Interaction Network and Parameters Performing Multi-agent Simulations Presentation of Results Identification of the Minimum Model Ingredients Gaining an Analytical Understanding Some Problems and Limitations of Computational Modeling Practical Application of Agent-Based Models: Potentials and Limitations Stylized Facts and Prediction in Socio-Economic Systems Possibilities and Limitations in the Management of Socio-Economic Systems Summary, Discussion, and Outlook Future Prospects and Paradigm Shifts References Self-organization in Pedestrian Crowds Introduction Pedestrian Dynamics Short History of Pedestrian Modeling The Social Force Concept Specification of the Social Force Model Angular Dependence Evolutionary Calibration with Video Tracking Data Crowd Dynamics Analogies with Gases, Fluids, and Granular Media Self-organization of Pedestrian Crowds Evacuation Dynamics Evacuation and Panic Research Situations of Panic Force Model for Panicking Pedestrians Collective Phenomena in Situations of Panic... 85

3 Contents xiii Some Warning Signs of Critical Crowd Conditions Evolutionary Optimization of Pedestrian Facilities Future Directions References Opinion Formation Introduction Model Results Discussion References Spatial Self-organization Through Success-Driven Mobility Introduction Discrete Model of Interactive Motion in Space Simulation Results Symmetric Interactions Asymmetric Interactions Conclusions References Cooperation in Social Dilemmas Introduction Stability Properties of Different Games Phase Transitions and Routes to Cooperation Relationship with Cooperation-Supporting Mechanisms Further Kinds of Transitions to Cooperation Summary References Co-evolution of Social Behavior and Spatial Organization Introduction Model Results Discussion References Evolution of Moral Behavior Introduction Results Discussion References Coordination and Competitive Innovation Spreading in Social Networks Introduction Model

4 xiv Contents 9.3 Results Discussion References Heterogeneous Populations: Coexistence, Integration, or Conflict Introduction Model Results Evolution of Normative Behavior in the Stag Hunt Game Occurrence of Conflict in the Snowdrift Game Discussion References Social Experiments and Computing Introduction Experiment Discussion References Learning of Coordinated Behavior Introduction The Route Choice Game Classification of Symmetrical 2 2 Games Experimental Results Emergence of Cooperation and Punishment Preconditions for Cooperation Strategy Coefficients Multi-agent Simulation Model Simultaneous and Alternating Cooperation in the Prisoner s Dilemma Summary, Discussion, and Outlook References Response to Information Experimental Setup and Previous Results Is It Just an Unstable User Equilibrium? Explaining the Volatile Decision Dynamics Simulation of Reinforcement Learning and Emergence of Individual Response Patterns Potentials and Limitations of Decision Control Master Equation Description of Iterated Decisions Summary and Outlook References

5 Contents xv 14 Systemic Risks in Society and Economics Introduction Socio-Economic Systems as Complex Systems Non-Linear Interactions and Power Laws Power Laws and Heavy-Tail Distributions Network Interactions and Systemic Risks Through Failure Cascades Self-Organized or Self-Induced Criticality Limits of Predictability, Randomness, Turbulence and Chaos The Illusion of Control The Logic of Failure The Example of Financial Market Instability Managing Complexity How to Profit from Complex Systems Reducing Network Vulnerability Summary, Discussion, and Outlook References Managing Complexity What Is Special About Complex Systems? Chaotic Dynamics and Butterfly Effect Self-organization, Competition, and Cooperation Phase Transitions and Catastrophe Theory Self-organized Criticality, Power Laws, and Cascading Effects Some Common Mistakes in the Management of Complex Systems The System Does Not Do What You Want It to Do Guided Self-organization Is Better Than Control Self-organized Networks and Hierarchies Faster Is Often Slower The Role of Fluctuations and Heterogeneity Summary and Outlook References Challenges in Economics Introduction Real-World Challenges Fundamental Challenges Homo Economicus The Efficient Market Hypothesis Equilibrium Paradigm Prevalence of Linear Models Representative Agent Approach

6 xvi Contents Lack of Micro-Macro Link and Ecological Systems Thinking Optimization of System Performance Control Approach Human Factors Information Role of Other Scientific Fields Econophysics, Ecology, Computer Science Social Sciences References Index

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