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1 This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries Volume Author/Editor: Universities-National Bureau Volume Publisher: Columbia University Press Volume ISBN: Volume URL: Publication Date: 1960 Chapter Title: Front matter to "Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries" Chapter Author: Chapter URL: Chapter pages in book: (p )

2 Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries A CONFERENCE OF THE UNIVERSITIES-NATIONAL BUREAU COMMITTEE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH A REPORT OF THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, NEW YORK NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH New York Distributed by COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS New York and London

3 Copyright ig6o, National Bureau of Economic Research All Rights Reserved L.C. Card No SBN Fourth printing, 1969 Printed in the United States of America

4 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CHANGE IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES -I

5 National Bureau of Economic Research Special Conference Series 'I. Problems in the Study of Economic Growth (in mimeograph) a. Conference, on Business Cycles 3. Conference on Research in Business Finance 4. Regularization of Business Investment 5. Business Concentration and Price Policy 6. Capital Formation and Economic Growth 7. Policies to Combat Depression 8. The Measurement and Behavior of Unemployment 9. Problems in International Economics (February 1958 Supplement to the &view of Economws and Statistics) to. The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data i i. Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries 12. Public Finances: Needs, Sources, and Utilization The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors 14. Aspects of Labor Economics

6 1. Research. H 2,005,968.'. éâ "National Bureau Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research. Demographic and economic change in developed coüñtries, a conference of the Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research. Princeton, Princeton Univer- ' :. sity Press, xi, 586 p. Illus., maps. 24 cm. (National Bureau of Economic Special conference series, 11) "A report of the National Bureau of Ecnnnnile Research, $ New Bibliographical footnotes;. PopulatIon. 2. Econnmlc history 2Oth cent. L Title. '(Series) HB885.U ' MATERIAL SU8MIflED BY PUBLISHER h-.,,

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8 .. 2,005,968 --v,. Bureau Committee for Economic Re. search. Demographic and economic change in developed countries, a conference of the Universities-National Bureau Commitfor Economic Research. Univery Press, xl, 536 p; lllus.,.zuapl 24 cm. (National of Eeonongc Research. Spedal conference aeries, 11). "A report of the National of Ecohomic Research, New York."... Bibliographical footnotes.. 1. PopulatIon. 2. Economic hlstory 2Oth cent... 1.: Title., MATERIAL SUBMITTED BY PUBLISHER

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10 National Bureau of Economic Research 1960 OFFICERS George B. Roberts, Chairman Arthur F. Burns, President Theodore W. Schultz, Vice-President Murray Shields, Treasurer Solomon Fabricant, Director of Research Geoffrey H. Moore, Associate Director of Research William J. Carson, Executive Director DIRECTORS AT LARGE Wallace J. Campbell, Nationwide Insurance Solomon Fabricant, New York University Crawford H. Greenewalt, E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company Gabriel Hauge, Manufacturers Trust Compan, Albert J. Hettinger, Jr., Lazard and Company H. W. Laidler, League for Industrial Democracy Shepard Morgan, Norfolk, Connecticut George B. Roberts, Larchmont, New York Harry Schermán, Book-of-the-Month Club Boris Shishkin, American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial George Soule, Washington College J. Raymond Walsh, New York City Joseph H. Willits, The Educational Suniey, University of Pennsylvania Leo Wolman, Columbia University Donald B. Woodward, Vick Chemical Company Theodore 0. Yntema, Ford Motor Company V. W. Bladen, Toronto Arthur F. Burns, Columbia Melvin G. de Chazeau, Cornell Frank W. Fetter, Northwestern Harold M. Groves, Wisconsin Gottfried Haberler, Harvard DIRECTORS BY UNIVERSITY APPOINTMENT Walter W. Heller, Minnesota Maurice W. Lee, North Carolina Lloyd G. Reynolds, Yale Theodore W. Schultz, Chicago Jacob Viner, Princeton Willis J. Winn, Pennsylvania DIRECTORS APPOINTED BY OTHER ORGANIZATIONS Percival F. Brundage, American Institute of Certified Public Accountants Harold G. Hàlcrow, American Farm Economic Association Theodore V. Houser, Committee for Economic Development S. H. Ruttenberg, American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Murray Shields, American Management Association Willard L. Thorp, Anierican Economic Association W. Allen Wallis, American Statistical Association Harold F. Williamson, Economic History Association DIRECTORS EMERITI Oswald W. Knauth, Beaufort, South Carolina N. I. Stone, New rork City RESEARCH STAFF Moses Abrarnovitz Milton Friedman Geoffrey H. Moore Gary S. Becker Raymond W. Goldsmith Roger F. Murray Gerhard Bry Millard Hastay Ralph L. Nelson Arthur F. Burns Daniel M. Holland G. Warren Nutter Philip Cagan Thor Hultgren Richard T. Selden Morris A. Copeland F. Thomas Juster Lawrence H. Seltzer Frailk G. Dickinson C. Harry Kahn Robert P. Shay James S. Earley John W. Kendrick George J. Stigler Richard A. Easterlin Simon Kuznets Leo Wolman Solomon Fabricant Ruth P. Mack Herbert B. Woolley use Mintz

11 Relation of National Bureau Directors to Publications Reporting Conference Proceedings SINCE the present volume is a record of conference proceedings, it has been exempted from the rules governing submission of manuscripts to, and critical review by, the Board of Directors of the National Bureau. It has, however, been reviewed and accepted for publication by the Director of Research. (Resolution adopted July 6, 1958, and revised November 2 I, I 949.)

12 Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research Trns Committee is a cooperative venture of universities and the National Bureau. Its guiding objective is the encouragement of economic research on problems susceptible of objective treatment and of sufficiently broad scope to merit attention by institutions serving a scientific and public interest. George j. Stigler, Chairman University of Chicago H. Gregg Lewis, Vice-Chairman University of Chicago Moses Abramovitz, Stanford University M. A. Adelman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Armen Alchian, University of California, Los Angeles G. L. Bach, Carnegie Institute of Technology Jules Backman, New York University V Lewis Bassie, University of Illinois Earl F. Beach, McGill University Francis M. Boddy, University of Minnesota Raymond T. Bowman, Bureau of the Budget Arthur Butler, University of Buffalo James S. Earley, University of Wisconsin Solomon Fabricant, National Bureau of Economic Research Rendigs Fels, Vanderbilt University Karl A. Fox, Iowa State College Martin R. Gainsbrugh, National Industrial Conference Board Robert A. Gordon, University of California Albert G. Hart, Columbia University Richard B. Heflebower, Northwestern University Charles J. Hitch, The Rand Corporation Edgar M. Hoover, Pittsburgh Regional Planning Association M. Slade Kendrick, Cornell University vu

13 UN! VERS!TIES-XA TIONAL BUREAU COMMITTEE F. A. Knox, Queen's University Irving B. Kravis, University of Pennsylvania Adolph Lowe, New School for Social Research D. C. MacGregor, University of Toronto Paul W. McCracken, University of Michigan Oskar Morgenstern1 Princeton University Richard A. Musgrave, The John Hopkins University Douglass C. North, University of Washington William N. Parker, University of North Carolina Richard Ruggles, Yale University Walter S. Salant, The Brookings Institution Arthur Smithies, Harvard University Joseph J. Spengler, Duke University Herbert Stein, Committee for Economic Development Carey C. Thompson, University of Texas Rutledge Vining, University of Virginia vzu

14 Contents INTRODUCTION 3 Ansley J. Coale THE PART I OF POPULATION CHANGE AN INTERNATIONAL SURVEY OF RECENT FERTILITY TRENDS 17 Halvor Glue C 0 M M E N T 34 Frank Lorimer DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY IN EUROPEAN COurrrluEs 36 Gwendolyn Z. Johnson COMMENT 72 Ronald Freedman DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY IN THE UNITED STATES 77 Clyde V. Kiser C 0 M M E N T 113 Robert Gutman THE STRUCTURE AND TEMPO OF FERTILITY I I 7 Norman B. Ryder COMMENT 131 Edward P. Hutchinson Ansley J. Coale SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN AMERICAN FERTILITY RESEARCH 137 David Goldberg C 0 M M E N T 151 Charles F. Westoff DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY IN UNITED STATES CENSUS DATA 155 Richard and Nancy Ruggles COMMENT 190 Pascal K. Wheipton ix

15 . CON TENTS AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FERTILITY 209 Gary S. Becker COMMENT 231 James S. Duesenberry Bernard Okun THE INFLUENCE OF BUSINESS CYCLES ON MARRIAGE AND BIRTH RATES 241 Dudley Kirk C 0 M M E N T 257 Dorothy Swaine Thomas MORTALITY, FERTILITY, THE SIZE AGE DISTRIBUTION, AND THE GROWTH RATE 261 Frank W. Notestein C 0 M M E N T 275 John V. Grauman Conrad Taeuber PART II THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF POPULATION CHANGE AN ECONOMIC AND DEMOORAPHIC MODEL OF THE HOUSEHOLD SECTOR: A REPORT 287 Guy H. Orcutt and Alice M. Rivlin COMMENT 318 Robert Solow Reply by Orcutt and Rivlin POPULATION CHANGE AND AGGREGATE OUTPUT 324 Simon Kuznets COMMENT 340 Richard E. Quandt Milton Friedman Reply by. Kuznets POPULATION CHANGE AND DEMAND,. PRICES, AND THE LEVEL OF EMPLOYMENT. Ansley J. Coale C 0 M M E N T. Margaret G. Reid William J. Baumol x :

16 CONTENTS CHANGE AND THE SUPPLY OF 377 Stanley Lebergott COMMENT 414 James N. Morgan John Durand PoPuLArIoN CHANGE AND RESOURCES: MALTHUSIANISM AND CONSERVATION 423 Harold J. Barnett COMMENT 451 Edgar M. Hoover Theodore W. Schultz POPULATION ThE DEMAND FOR Foor, 457 Jean A. Crockett COMMENT 484 Karl Fox POPULATION CHANGE AND THE DEMAND FOR SERVICES 496 Robert Ferber COMMENT 517 Richard A. Easterlin Reply by Ferber C 0 M M E N T on Crockett and Ferber 522 Elizabeth W. Gilboy INDEX 527 xi.